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Nigel Bosch

Publications and source records attributed to Nigel Bosch.

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On Fixing the Right Problems in Predictive Analytics: AUC Is Not the Problem

Recently, ACM FAccT published an article by Kwegyir-Aggrey and colleagues (2023), critiquing the use of AUC ROC in predictive analytics in several domains. In this article, we offer a critique of that article. Specifically, we highlight technical inaccuracies in that paper's comparison of metrics, mis-specification of the interpretation and goals of AUC ROC, the article's use of the accuracy metric as a gold standard for comparison to AUC ROC, and the article's application of critiques solely to AUC ROC for concerns that would apply to the use of any metric. We conclude with a re-framing of the very valid concerns raised in that article, and discuss how the use of AUC ROC can remain a valid and appropriate practice in a well-informed predictive analytics approach taking those concerns into account. We conclude by discussing the combined use of multiple metrics, including machine learning bias metrics, and AUC ROC's place in such an approach. Like broccoli, AUC ROC is healthy, but also like broccoli, researchers and practitioners in our field shouldn't eat a diet of only AUC ROC.

cs.LG

Identifying supportive student factors for mindset interventions: A two-model machine learning approach

Growth mindset interventions foster students' beliefs that their abilities can grow through effort and appropriate strategies. However, not every student benefits from such interventions - yet research identifying which student factors support growth mindset interventions is sparse. In this study, we utilized machine learning methods to predict growth mindset effectiveness in a nationwide experiment in the U.S. with over 10,000 students. These methods enable analysis of arbitrarily-complex interactions between combinations of student-level predictor variables and intervention outcome, defined as the improvement in grade point average (GPA) during the transition to high school. We utilized two separate machine learning models: one to control for complex relationships between 51 student-level predictors and GPA, and one to predict the change in GPA due to the intervention. We analyzed the trained models to discover which features influenced model predictions most, finding that prior academic achievement, blocked navigations (attempting to navigate through the intervention software too quickly), self-reported reasons for learning, and race/ethnicity were the most important predictors in the model for predicting intervention effectiveness. As in previous research, we found that the intervention was most effective for students with prior low academic achievement. Unique to this study, we found that blocked navigations predicted an intervention effect as low as 0.185 GPA points (on a 0-4 scale) less than the mean. This was a notable negative prediction given that the mean intervention effect in our sample was just 0.026 GPA points, though few students (4.4%) experienced a substantial number of blocked navigation events. We also found that some minoritized students were predicted to benefit less (or even not at all) from the intervention.

cs.CY