arXiv subjects

Nihan Pol

Publications and source records attributed to Nihan Pol.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Expectations for the first supermassive black-hole binary resolved by PTAs I: Model efficacy

One of the most promising targets for Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) is identifying an individual supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) out of the population of binaries theorized to produce a gravitational wave background (GWB). In this work, we emulate realistic PTA datasets, complete with an increasing number of pulsars and timing baseline, in which we inject a single binary on top of a Gaussian GWB. We vary the binary's source parameters, including sky position and frequency, and create ten noise realizations for each source/PTA combination to synthesize an ensemble of datasets to assess current Bayesian binary search techniques. We develop a novel, cross-correlation based model, Spike Pixel (SP), tuned for the frequency-specific anisotropy induced by an individual SMBHB and compare its binary detection and characterization capabilities to two waveform-based template models. We find that a template-based search including the full gravitational-wave signal structure (i.e., both the Earth and pulsar effects of an incident GW) returns the highest Bayes Factors (BF) and the most robust parameter estimation. SP attains a realization-median BF>10 at source strengths (S/N)~7-15. Interestingly, despite being a deterministic model, the Earth-term template struggles to identify and characterize low-frequency binaries (i.e., 5 nHz). These binaries require higher source strengths (S/N)~16-19 to reach the same BF threshold. This is likely due to neglected confusion effects between the pulsar and Earth terms. By contrast, SP shows promise for parameter estimation despite treating a binary's GW signal as excess directional GW power without phase modeling. Sky location and frequency parameter constraints returned by SP are only surpassed by the Earth term template model at (S/N)~12-13. Milestones for a first detection using the full-signal GW model are included in a companion paper Petrov et al. 2026.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Expectations for the first supermassive black-hole binary resolved by PTAs II: Milestones for binary characterization

Following the recent evidence for a gravitational wave (GW) background found by pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments, the next major science milestone is resolving individual supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). The detection of these systems could arise via searches using a power-based GW anisotropy model or a deterministic template model. In Schult et al. 2025, we compared the efficacy of these models in constraining the GW signal from a single SMBHB using realistic, near-future PTA datasets, and found that the full-signal deterministic continuous wave (CW) search may achieve detection and characterization first. Here, we continue our analyses using only the CW model given its better performance, focusing now on characterization milestones. We examine the order in which CW parameters are constrained as PTA data are accumulated and the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) grows. We also study how these parameter constraints vary across sources of different sky locations and GW frequencies. We find that the GW frequency and strain are generally constrained at the same time (or S/N), closely followed by the sky location, and later the chirp mass (if the source is highly evolving) and inclination angle. At fixed S/N, sources at higher frequencies generally achieve better precision on the GW frequency, chirp mass, and sky location. The time (and S/N) at which the signal becomes constrained is dependent on the sky location and frequency of the source, with the effects of pulsar terms and PTA geometry playing crucial roles in source detection and localization.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Mapping the Gravitational-wave Background Across the Spectrum with a Next-Generation Anisotropic Per-frequency Optimal Statistic

With pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) having observed a gravitational wave background (GWB) at nanohertz frequencies, the focus of the field is shifting towards determining and characterizing its origin. While the primary candidate is a population of GW-emitting supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many other cosmological processes could produce a GWB with similar spectral properties as have been measured. One key argument to help differentiate an SMBHB GWB from a cosmologically sourced one is its level of anisotropy; a GWB sourced by a finite population will likely exhibit greater anisotropy than a cosmological GWB through finite source effects (``shot noise'') and potentially large-scale structure. Current PTA GWB anisotropy detection methods often use the frequentist PTA optimal statistic for its fast estimation of pulsar pair correlations and relatively low computational overhead compared to spatially-correlated Bayesian analyses. However, there are critical limitations with the status quo approach. In this paper, we improve this technique by incorporating three recent advancements: accounting for covariance between pulsar pairwise estimates of correlated GWB power; the per-frequency optimal statistic to dissect the GWB across the spectrum; and constructing null-hypothesis statistical distributions that include cosmic variance. By combining these methods, our new pipeline can localize GWB anisotropies to specific frequencies, through which anisotropy detection prospects -- while impacted by cosmic variance -- are shown to improve in our simulations from a $p$-value of $\sim0.2$ in a broadband search to $\sim0.01$ in the per-frequency search. Our methods are already incorporated in community-available code and ready to deploy on forthcoming PTA datasets.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Inferring Mbh-Mbulge Evolution from the Gravitational Wave Background

We test the impact of an evolving supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass scaling relation (Mbh-Mbulge) on the predictions for the gravitational wave background (GWB). The observed GWB amplitude is 2-3 times higher than predicted by astrophysically informed models which suggests the need to revise the assumptions in those models. We compare a semi-analytic model's ability to reproduce the observed GWB spectrum with a static versus evolving-amplitude Mbh-Mbulge relation. We additionally consider the influence of the choice of galaxy stellar mass function on the modeled GWB spectra. Our models are able to reproduce the GWB amplitude with either a large number density of massive galaxies or a positively evolving Mbh-Mbulge amplitude (i.e., the Mbh / Mbulge ratio was higher in the past). If we assume that the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude does not evolve, our models require a galaxy stellar mass function that implies an undetected population of massive galaxies (Mstellar > 10^11 Msun at z > 1). When the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude is allowed to evolve, we can model the GWB spectrum with all fiducial values and an Mbh-Mbulge amplitude that evolves as alpha(z) = alpha_0 (1 + z)^(1.04 +/- 0.5).

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

First detection of X-ray pulsations and spectrum of the high Galactic latitude pulsar PSR J0837-2454 and direct Urca cooling implications

PSR J0837-2454 is a young 629 ms radio pulsar whose uncertain distance has important implications. A large distance would place the pulsar far out of the Galactic plane and suggest it is the result of a runaway star, while a short distance would mean the pulsar is extraordinarily cold. Here we present further radio observations and the first deep X-ray observation of PSR J0837-2454. Data from the Parkes Murriyang telescope show flux variations over short and long timescales and also yield an updated timing model, while the position and proper motion (and, less strongly, parallax) of the pulsar are constrained by a number of low-significance detections with the Very Long Baseline Array. XMM-Newton data enable detection of X-ray pulsations for the first time from this pulsar and yield a spectrum that is thermal and blackbody-like, with a cool blackbody temperature ~70 eV or atmosphere temperature ~50 eV, as well as a small hotspot. The spectrum also indicates the pulsar is at a small distance of <~1 kpc, which is compatible with the marginal VLBA parallax constraint that favours a distance of >~330 pc. The low implied luminosity (~7.6x10^31 erg s^-1 at 0.9 kpc) suggests PSR J0837-2454 has a mass high enough that fast neutrino emission from direct Urca reactions operates in this young star and points to a nuclear equation of state that allows for direct Urca reactions at the highest densities present in neutron star cores.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Bayesian Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Evidence for a low-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background has recently been reported based on analyses of pulsar timing array data. The most likely source of such a background is a population of supermassive black hole binaries, the loudest of which may be individually detected in these datasets. Here we present the search for individual supermassive black hole binaries in the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. We introduce several new techniques, which enhance the efficiency and modeling accuracy of the analysis. The search uncovered weak evidence for two candidate signals, one with a gravitational-wave frequency of $\sim$4 nHz, and another at $\sim$170 nHz. The significance of the low-frequency candidate was greatly diminished when Hellings-Downs correlations were included in the background model. The high-frequency candidate was discounted due to the lack of a plausible host galaxy, the unlikely astrophysical prior odds of finding such a source, and since most of its support comes from a single pulsar with a commensurate binary period. Finding no compelling evidence for signals from individual binary systems, we place upper limits on the strain amplitude of gravitational waves emitted by such systems.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Forecasting pulsar timing array sensitivity to anisotropy in the stochastic gravitational wave background

Statistical anisotropy in the nanohertz-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB) is expected to be detected by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) in the near future. By developing a frequentist statistical framework that intrinsically restricts the GWB power to be positive, we establish scaling relations for multipole-dependent anisotropy decision thresholds that are a function of the noise properties, timing baselines, and cadences of the pulsars in a PTA. We verify that $(i)$ a larger number of pulsars, and $(ii)$ factors that lead to lower uncertainty on the cross-correlation measurements between pulsars, lead to a higher overall GWB signal-to-noise ratio, and lower anisotropy decision thresholds with which to reject the null hypothesis of isotropy. Using conservative simulations of realistic NANOGrav datasets, we predict that an anisotropic GWB with angular power $C_{l=1} > 0.3\,C_{l=0}$ may be sufficient to produce tension with isotropy at the $p = 3\times10^{-3}$ ($\sim3σ$) level in near-future NANOGrav data with a $20$~yr baseline. We present ready-to-use scaling relationships that can map these thresholds to any number of pulsars, configuration of pulsar noise properties, and sky coverage. We discuss how PTAs can improve the detection prospects for anisotropy, as well as how our methods can be adapted for more versatile searches.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

A Parallelized Bayesian Approach To Accelerated Gravitational-Wave Background Characterization

The characterization of nanohertz-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) with pulsar-timing arrays requires a continual expansion of datasets and monitored pulsars. Whereas detection of the stochastic GW background is predicated on measuring a distinctive pattern of inter-pulsar correlations, characterizing the background's spectrum is driven by information encoded in the power spectra of the individual pulsars' time series. We propose a new technique for rapid Bayesian characterization of the stochastic GW background that is fully parallelized over pulsar datasets. This Factorized Likelihood (FL) technique empowers a modular approach to parameter estimation of the GW background, multi-stage model selection of a spectrally-common stochastic process and quadrupolar inter-pulsar correlations, and statistical cross-validation of measured signals between independent pulsar sub-arrays. We demonstrate the equivalence of this technique's efficacy with the full pulsar-timing array likelihood, yet at a fraction of the required time. Our technique is fast, easily implemented, and trivially allows for new data and pulsars to be combined with legacy datasets without re-analysis of the latter.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2021

Insights into the Milky Way pulsar--black hole population using radio and gravitational wave observations

The detection of two NS--BH mergers by LIGO-Virgo provided the first direct confirmation of the existence of this type of system in the Universe. These detections also imply the existence of pulsar--black hole (PSR--BH) systems. In this analysis, we use the non-detection of any PSR--BH systems in current radio surveys to estimate a 95\% upper limit of $\sim$150 PSR--BH binary systems that are beaming towards the Earth in the Milky Way. This corresponds to a 95\% upper limit of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm LIGO} = 7.6$~yr$^{-1}$ on the merger detection rate for the LIGO-Virgo network scaled to a range distance of 100~Mpc, which is consistent with the rates derived by LIGO-Virgo. In addition, for the first time, we use the merger detection rates estimate by LIGO-Virgo to predict the number of detectable PSR--BH systems in the Milky Way. We find there to be $\left< N_{\rm obs, NSBH, e} \right> = 2^{+5}_{-1}$ and $\left< N_{\rm obs, NSBH, p} \right> = 6^{+7}_{-4}$ detectable PSR--BH systems in the Milky Way corresponding to the event-based and population-based merger detection rates estimated by LIGO-Virgo respectively. We estimate the probability of detecting these PSR--BH systems with current radio pulsar surveys, showing that the Arecibo PALFA survey has the highest probability of detecting a PSR--BH system, while surveys with recently commissioned and planned telescopes are almost guaranteed to detect one of these systems. Finally, we discuss the hurdles in detecting PSR--BH systems and how these can be overcome in the future.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Refined Mass and Geometric Measurements of the High-Mass PSR J0740+6620

We report results from continued timing observations of PSR J0740+6620, a high-mass, 2.8-ms radio pulsar in orbit with a likely ultra-cool white dwarf companion. Our data set consists of combined pulse arrival-time measurements made with the 100-m Green Bank Telescope and the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment telescope. We explore the significance of timing-based phenomena arising from general-relativistic dynamics and variations in pulse dispersion. When using various statistical methods, we find that combining $\sim 1.5$ years of additional, high-cadence timing data with previous measurements confirms and improves upon previous estimates of relativistic effects within the PSR J0740+6620 system, with the pulsar mass $m_{\rm p} = 2.08^{+0.07}_{-0.07}$ M$_\odot$ (68.3\% credibility) determined by the relativistic Shapiro time delay. For the first time, we measure secular variation in the orbital period and argue that this effect arises from apparent acceleration due to significant transverse motion. After incorporating contributions from Galactic differential rotation and off-plane acceleration in the Galactic potential, we obtain a model-dependent distance of $d = 1.14^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$ kpc (68.3\% credibility). This improved distance confirms the ultra-cool nature of the white dwarf companion determined from recent optical observations. We discuss the prospects for future observations with next-generation facilities, which will likely improve the precision on $m_{\rm p}$ for J0740+6620 by an order of magnitude within the next few years.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

The Location of Young Pulsar PSR J0837$-$2454: Galactic Halo or Local Supernova Remnant?

We present the discovery and timing of the young (age $\sim 28.6$ kyr) pulsar PSR J0837$-$2454. Based on its high latitude ($b = 9.8^{\circ}$) and dispersion measure (DM $ = 143$~pc~cm$^{-3}$), the pulsar appears to be at a $z$-height of $>$1 kpc above the Galactic plane, but near the edge of our Galaxy. This is many times the observed scale height of the canonical pulsar population, which suggests this pulsar may have been born far out of the plane. If accurate, the young age and high $z$-height imply that this is the first pulsar known to be born from a runaway O/B star. In follow-up imaging with the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA), we detect the pulsar with a flux density $S_{1400} = 0.18 \pm 0.05$ mJy. We do not detect an obvious supernova remnant around the pulsar in our ATCA data, but we detect a co-located, low-surface-brightness region of $\sim$1.5$^\circ$ extent in archival Galactic and Extragalactic All-sky MWA Survey data. We also detect co-located H$α$ emission from the Southern H$α$ Sky Survey Atlas. Distance estimates based on these two detections come out to $\sim$0.9 kpc and $\sim$0.2 kpc respectively, both of which are much smaller than the distance predicted by the NE2001 model ($6.3$ kpc) and YMW model ($>25$ kpc) and place the pulsar much closer to the plane of the Galaxy. If the pulsar/remnant association holds, this result also highlights the inherent difficulty in the classification of transients as "Galactic" (pulsar) or "extragalactic" (fast radio burst) toward the Galactic anti-center based solely on the modeled Galactic electron contribution to a detection.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

On the detectability of ultra-compact binary pulsar systems

Using neural networks, we integrate the ability to account for Doppler smearing due to a pulsar's orbital motion with the pulsar population synthesis package \psrpoppy\ to develop accurate modeling of the observed binary pulsar population. As a first application, we show that binary neutron star systems where the two components have highly unequal mass are, on average, easier to detect than systems which are symmetric in mass. We then investigate the population of ultra-compact ($1.5 \, {\rm min} \leq P_{\rm b} \leq 15\,\rm min$) neutron star--white dwarf (NS--WD) and double neutron star (DNS) systems which are promising sources for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna gravitational-wave detector. Given the non-detection of these systems in radio surveys thus far, we estimate a 95\% confidence upper limit of $\sim$1450 and $\sim$1100 ultra-compact NS--WD and DNS systems in the Milky Way that are beaming towards the Earth respectively. We also show that using survey integration times in the range 20~s to 200~s with time-domain resampling will maximize the signal-to-noise ratio as well as the probability of detection of these ultra-compact binary systems. Among all the large scale radio pulsar surveys, those that are currently being carried out at the Arecibo radio telescope have $\sim$50--80\% chance of detecting at least one of these systems using current integration integration times and $\sim$80--95\% using optimal integration times in the next several years.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Modeling the Galactic Compact Binary Neutron Star Population and Studying the Double Pulsar System

In this dissertation, we estimate the population of different classes of BNS systems that are visible to gravitational-wave observatories. Given that no ultra-compact BNS systems have been discovered in pulsar radio surveys, we place a 95\% confidence upper limit of $\sim$850 and $\sim$1100 ultra-compact neutron star--white dwarf and double neutron star (DNS) systems that are beaming towards the Earth, respectively. We show that among all of the current radio pulsar surveys, the ones at the Arecibo radio telescope have the best chance of detecting an ultra-compact BNS system. We also show that adopting a survey integration time of $t_{\rm int} \sim 1$~min will maximize the signal-to-noise ratio, and thus, the probability of detecting an ultra-compact BNS system. Similarly, we use the sample of nine observed DNS systems to derive a Galactic DNS merger rate of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm MW} = 37^{+24}_{-11}$~Myr$^{-1}$, where the errors represent 90\% confidence intervals. Extrapolating this rate to the observable volume for LIGO, we derive a merger detection rate of $\mathcal{R} = 1.9^{+1.2}_{-0.6} \times \left(D_{\rm r}/100 \ \rm Mpc \right)^3 \rm yr^{-1}$, where $D_{\rm r}$ is the range distance for LIGO. This rate is consistent with that derived using the DNS mergers observed by LIGO. Finally, we measure the sense of rotation of the older millisecond pulsar, pulsar A, in the DNS J0737--3039 system and find that it rotates prograde with respect to its orbit. This is the first direct measurement of the sense of rotation of a pulsar and a direct confirmation of the rotating lighthouse model for pulsars. This result confirms that the spin angular momentum vector is closely aligned with the orbital angular momentum, suggesting that kick of the supernova producing the second born pulsar J0737--3039B was small.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

An Updated Galactic Double Neutron Star Merger Rate Based on Radio Pulsar Populations

Following the procedure described in Pol et al., we update the Galactic double neutron star (DNS) merger rate by including the new, highly eccentric DNS system J0509+3801 (Lynch et al.). This leads to a new Galactic DNS merger rate of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm MW} = 37^{+24}_{-11}$ Myr$^{-1}$, where the errors represent 90% confidence intervals. The corresponding DNS merger detection rate for Advanced LIGO is $\mathcal{R} = 1.9^{+1.2}_{-0.6} \times \left( D_{\rm r} / 100 \ \rm Mpc \right)^3 \rm yr^{-1},$ where $D_{\rm r}$ is the range distance. Using the LIGO O3 range distance of 130 Mpc (Abbott et al.), we predict that LIGO will detect anywhere between three and seven DNS mergers per year of observing at O3 sensitivity.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Future prospects for ground-based gravitational wave detectors $-$ The Galactic double neutron star merger rate revisited

We present the Galactic merger rate for double neutron star (DNS) binaries using the observed sample of eight DNS systems merging within a Hubble time. This sample includes the recently discovered, highly relativistic DNS systems J1757$-$1854 and J1946+2052, and is approximately three times the sample size used in previous estimates of the Galactic merger rate by Kim et al. Using this sample, we calculate the vertical scale height for DNS systems in the Galaxy to be $z_0 = 0.4 \pm 0.1$ kpc. We calculate a Galactic DNS merger rate of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm MW} = 42^{+30}_{-14}$ Myr$^{-1}$ at the 90% confidence level. The corresponding DNS merger detection rate for Advanced LIGO is $\mathcal{R}_{\rm LIGO} = 0.18^{+0.13}_{-0.06} \times \left( D_{\rm r}/100 \ \rm Mpc \right)^3 \rm yr^{-1}$, where $D_{\rm r}$ is the range distance. Using this merger detection rate and the predicted range distance of 120$-$170 Mpc for the third observing run of LIGO (Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory, Abbott et al.), we predict, accounting for 90% confidence intervals, that LIGO$-$Virgo will detect anywhere between zero and two DNS mergers. We explore the effects of the underlying pulsar population properties on the merger rate and compare our merger detection rate with those estimated using different formation and evolutionary scenario of DNS systems. As we demonstrate, reconciling the rates is sensitive to assumptions about the DNS population, including its radio pulsar luminosity function. Future constraints from further gravitational wave DNS detections and pulsar surveys anticipated in the near future should permit tighter constraints on these assumptions.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Constraints on the HI Mass of NGC 1052-DF2

We report deep, single-dish 21 cm observations of NGC 1052-DF2, taken with the Green Bank Telescope. NGC 1052-DF2, proposed to be lacking in dark matter, is currently classified as an ultra-diffuse galaxy in the NGC 1052 group. We do not detect the galaxy, and derive an upper limit on the HI, mass. The galaxy is extremely gas-poor, and we find that a $3σ\, M_{HI}$ detection at a distance of 19 Mpc and using a line width of 3.2 km $\rm s^{-1}$ would have an upper limit of $M_{HI,lim} < 5.5 \times 10^5$ M$_{\odot}$. At this mass limit, the gas fraction of neutral gas mass to stellar mass is extremely low, at $M_{HI}$/M$_{*}$ $\, < \, 0.0027$. This extremely low gas fraction, comparable to Galactic dwarf spheroidals and gas-poor dwarf ellipticals, implies that either the galaxy is within the virial radius of NGC1052, where its gas has been stripped due to its proximity to the central galaxy, or that NGC 1052-DF2 is at distance large enough to inhibit detection of its gas. We also estimated the upper limit of the HI mass of NGC 1052-DF2 resided at 13 Mpc. This would give an HI mass of $M_{HI,lim} < 2.5 \times 10^5$ M$_{\odot}$, and an HI gas fraction of $M_{HI}$/M$_{*}$r $\, < \, 0.0012$, becoming even more extreme. While the dark matter fraction would be less extreme at this distance, the neutral gas fraction would be unprecedented for an object in a low density environment.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2017

A direct measurement of sense of rotation of PSR J0737$-$3039A

We apply the algorithm published by Liang et al. (2014) to describe the Double Pulsar system J0737$-$3039 and extract the sense of rotation of first born recycled pulsar PSR J0737$-$3039A. We find that this pulsar is rotating prograde in its orbit. This is the first direct measurement of the sense of rotation of a pulsar with respect to its orbit and a direct confirmation of the rotating lighthouse model for pulsars. This result confirms that the spin angular momentum vector is closely aligned with the orbital angular momentum, suggesting that kick of the supernova producing the second born pulsar J0737$-$3039B was small.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2016

Seyfert 1 Composite Spectrum using SDSS Legacy Survey Data

We present a rest-frame composite spectrum for Seyfert 1 galaxies using spectra obtained from the DR12 release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The spectrum is constructed by combining data from a total of 10,112 galaxies, spanning a redshift range of 0 to 0.793. We produce an electronic table of the median and geometric mean composite Seyfert 1 spectrum. We measure the spectral index of the composite spectrum, and compare it with that of the composite quasar spectrum. We also measure the flux and width of the strong emission lines present in the composite spectrum. We compare the entire spectrum with the quasar spectrum in the context of the AGN unification model. The two composite spectra match extremely well in the blue part of the spectrum, while there is an offset in flux in the red portion of the spectrum.

astro-ph.GA↗