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Nik Dawson

Publications and source records attributed to Nik Dawson.

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Layoffs, Inequity and COVID-19: A Longitudinal Study of the Journalism Jobs Crisis in Australia from 2012 to 2020

In Australia and beyond, journalism is reportedly an industry in crisis, a crisis exacerbated by COVID-19. However, the evidence revealing the crisis is often anecdotal or limited in scope. In this unprecedented longitudinal research, we draw on data from the Australian journalism jobs market from January 2012 until March 2020. Using Data Science and Machine Learning techniques, we analyse two distinct data sets: job advertisements (ads) data comprising 3,698 journalist job ads from a corpus of over 8 million Australian job ads; and official employment data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Having matched and analysed both sources, we address both the demand for and supply of journalists in Australia over this critical period. The data show that the crisis is real, but there are also surprises. Counter-intuitively, the number of journalism job ads in Australia rose from 2012 until 2016, before falling into decline. Less surprisingly, for the entire period studied the figures reveal extreme volatility, characterised by large and erratic fluctuations. The data also clearly show that COVID-19 has significantly worsened the crisis. We then tease out more granular findings, including: that there are now more women than men journalists in Australia, but that gender inequity is worsening, with women journalists getting younger and worse-paid just as men journalists are, on average, getting older and better-paid; that, despite the crisis besetting the industry, the demand for journalism skills has increased; and that, perhaps concerningly, the skills sought by journalism job ads increasingly include social media and generalist communications.

econ.GN

Predicting Skill Shortages in Labor Markets: A Machine Learning Approach

Skill shortages are a drain on society. They hamper economic opportunities for individuals, slow growth for firms, and impede labor productivity in aggregate. Therefore, the ability to understand and predict skill shortages in advance is critical for policy-makers and educators to help alleviate their adverse effects. This research implements a high-performing Machine Learning approach to predict occupational skill shortages. In addition, we demonstrate methods to analyze the underlying skill demands of occupations in shortage and the most important features for predicting skill shortages. For this work, we compile a unique dataset of both Labor Demand and Labor Supply occupational data in Australia from 2012 to 2018. This includes data from 7.7 million job advertisements (ads) and 20 official labor force measures. We use these data as explanatory variables and leverage the XGBoost classifier to predict yearly skills shortage classifications for 132 standardized occupations. The models we construct achieve macro-F1 average performance scores of up to 83 per cent. Our results show that job ads data and employment statistics were the highest performing feature sets for predicting year-to-year skills shortage changes for occupations. We also find that features such as 'Hours Worked', years of 'Education', years of 'Experience', and median 'Salary' are highly important features for predicting occupational skill shortages. This research provides a robust data-driven approach for predicting and analyzing skill shortages, which can assist policy-makers, educators, and businesses to prepare for the future of work.

econ.GN

Adaptively selecting occupations to detect skill shortages from online job ads

Labour demand and skill shortages have historically been difficult to assess given the high costs of conducting representative surveys and the inherent delays of these indicators. This is particularly consequential for fast developing skills and occupations, such as those relating to Data Science and Analytics (DSA). This paper develops a data-driven solution to detecting skill shortages from online job advertisements (ads) data. We first propose a method to generate sets of highly similar skills based on a set of seed skills from job ads. This provides researchers with a novel method to adaptively select occupations based on granular skills data. Next, we apply this adaptive skills similarity technique to a dataset of over 6.7 million Australian job ads in order to identify occupations with the highest proportions of DSA skills. This uncovers 306,577 DSA job ads across 23 occupational classes from 2012-2019. Finally, we propose five variables for detecting skill shortages from online job ads: (1) posting frequency; (2) salary levels; (3) education requirements; (4) experience demands; and (5) job ad posting predictability. This contributes further evidence to the goal of detecting skills shortages in real-time. In conducting this analysis, we also find strong evidence of skills shortages in Australia for highly technical DSA skills and occupations. These results provide insights to Data Science researchers, educators, and policy-makers from other advanced economies about the types of skills that should be cultivated to meet growing DSA labour demands in the future.

cs.CY