arXiv subjects

Nikhil Garg

Publications and source records attributed to Nikhil Garg.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Domain constraints improve risk prediction when outcome data is missing

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Wisdom and Foolishness of Noisy Matching Markets

We consider a many-to-one matching market where colleges share true preferences over students but make decisions using only independent noisy rankings. Each student has a true value $v$, but each college $c$ ranks the student according to an independently drawn estimated value $v + X_c$ for $X_c\sim \mathcal{D}.$ We ask a basic question about the resulting stable matching: How noisy is the set of matched students? Two striking effects can occur in large markets (i.e., with a continuum of students and a large number of colleges). When $\mathcal{D}$ is light-tailed, noise is fully attenuated: only the highest-value students are matched. When $\mathcal{D}$ is long-tailed, noise is fully amplified: students are matched uniformly at random. These results hold for any distribution of student preferences over colleges, and extend to when only subsets of colleges agree on true student valuations instead of the entire market. More broadly, our framework provides a tractable approach to analyze implications of imperfect preference formation in large markets.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2023

A Bayesian Spatial Model to Correct Under-Reporting in Urban Crowdsourcing

Decision-makers often observe the occurrence of events through a reporting process. City governments, for example, rely on resident reports to find and then resolve urban infrastructural problems such as fallen street trees, flooded basements, or rat infestations. Without additional assumptions, there is no way to distinguish events that occur but are not reported from events that truly did not occur--a fundamental problem in settings with positive-unlabeled data. Because disparities in reporting rates correlate with resident demographics, addressing incidents only on the basis of reports leads to systematic neglect in neighborhoods that are less likely to report events. We show how to overcome this challenge by leveraging the fact that events are spatially correlated. Our framework uses a Bayesian spatial latent variable model to infer event occurrence probabilities and applies it to storm-induced flooding reports in New York City, further pooling results across multiple storms. We show that a model accounting for under-reporting and spatial correlation predicts future reports more accurately than other models, and further induces a more equitable set of inspections: its allocations better reflect the population and provide equitable service to non-white, less traditionally educated, and lower-income residents. This finding reflects heterogeneous reporting behavior learned by the model: reporting rates are higher in Census tracts with higher populations, proportions of white residents, and proportions of owner-occupied households. Our work lays the groundwork for more equitable proactive government services, even with disparate reporting behavior.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2023

Monoculture in Matching Markets

Algorithmic monoculture arises when many decision-makers rely on the same algorithm to evaluate applicants. An emerging body of work investigates possible harms of this kind of homogeneity, but has been limited by the challenge of incorporating market effects in which the preferences and behavior of many applicants and decision-makers jointly interact to determine outcomes. Addressing this challenge, we introduce a tractable theoretical model of algorithmic monoculture in a two-sided matching market with many participants. We use the model to analyze outcomes under monoculture (when decision-makers all evaluate applicants using a common algorithm) and under polyculture (when decision-makers evaluate applicants independently). All else equal, monoculture (1) selects less-preferred applicants when noise is well-behaved, (2) matches more applicants to their top choice, though individual applicants may be worse off depending on their value to decision-makers and risk tolerance, and (3) is more robust to disparities in the number of applications submitted.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

Supply-Side Equilibria in Recommender Systems

Algorithmic recommender systems such as Spotify and Netflix affect not only consumer behavior but also producer incentives. Producers seek to create content that will be shown by the recommendation algorithm, which can impact both the diversity and quality of their content. In this work, we investigate the resulting supply-side equilibria in personalized content recommender systems. We model users and content as $D$-dimensional vectors, the recommendation algorithm as showing each user the content with highest dot product, and producers as maximizing the number of users who are recommended their content minus the cost of production. Two key features of our model are that the producer decision space is multi-dimensional and the user base is heterogeneous, which contrasts with classical low-dimensional models. Multi-dimensionality and heterogeneity create the potential for specialization, where different producers create different types of content at equilibrium. Using a duality argument, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for whether specialization occurs: these conditions depend on the extent to which users are heterogeneous and to which producers can perform well on all dimensions at once without incurring a high cost. Then, we characterize the distribution of content at equilibrium in concrete settings with two populations of users. Lastly, we show that specialization can enable producers to achieve positive profit at equilibrium, which means that specialization can reduce the competitiveness of the marketplace. At a conceptual level, our analysis of supply-side competition takes a step towards elucidating how personalized recommendations shape the marketplace of digital goods, and towards understanding what new phenomena arise in multi-dimensional competitive settings.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

Quantifying Spatial Under-reporting Disparities in Resident Crowdsourcing

Modern city governance relies heavily on crowdsourcing to identify problems such as downed trees and power lines. A major concern is that residents do not report problems at the same rates, with heterogeneous reporting delays directly translating to downstream disparities in how quickly incidents can be addressed. Here we develop a method to identify reporting delays without using external ground-truth data. Our insight is that the rates at which duplicate reports are made about the same incident can be leveraged to disambiguate whether an incident has occurred by investigating its reporting rate once it has occurred. We apply our method to over 100,000 resident reports made in New York City and to over 900,000 reports made in Chicago, finding that there are substantial spatial and socioeconomic disparities in how quickly incidents are reported. We further validate our methods using external data and demonstrate how estimating reporting delays leads to practical insights and interventions for a more equitable, efficient government service.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Coarse race data conceals disparities in clinical risk score performance

Healthcare data in the United States often records only a patient's coarse race group: for example, both Indian and Chinese patients are typically coded as "Asian." It is unknown, however, whether this coarse coding conceals meaningful disparities in the performance of clinical risk scores across granular race groups. Here we show that it does. Using data from 418K emergency department visits, we assess clinical risk score performance disparities across 26 granular groups for three outcomes, five risk scores, and four performance metrics. Across outcomes and metrics, we show that the risk scores exhibit significant granular performance disparities within coarse race groups. In fact, variation in performance within coarse groups often *exceeds* the variation between coarse groups. We explore why these disparities arise, finding that outcome rates, feature distributions, and the relationships between features and outcomes all vary significantly across granular groups. Our results suggest that healthcare providers, hospital systems, and machine learning researchers should strive to collect, release, and use granular race data in place of coarse race data, and that existing analyses may significantly underestimate racial disparities in performance.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2023

Reconciling the accuracy-diversity trade-off in recommendations

In recommendation settings, there is an apparent trade-off between the goals of accuracy (to recommend items a user is most likely to want) and diversity (to recommend items representing a range of categories). As such, real-world recommender systems often explicitly incorporate diversity separately from accuracy. This approach, however, leaves a basic question unanswered: Why is there a trade-off in the first place? We show how the trade-off can be explained via a user's consumption constraints -- users typically only consume a few of the items they are recommended. In a stylized model we introduce, objectives that account for this constraint induce diverse recommendations, while objectives that do not account for this constraint induce homogeneous recommendations. This suggests that accuracy and diversity appear misaligned because standard accuracy metrics do not consider consumption constraints. Our model yields precise and interpretable characterizations of diversity in different settings, giving practical insights into the design of diverse recommendations.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2023

Interface Design to Mitigate Inflation in Recommender Systems

Recommendation systems rely on user-provided data to learn about item quality and provide personalized recommendations. An implicit assumption when aggregating ratings into item quality is that ratings are strong indicators of item quality. In this work, we test this assumption using data collected from a music discovery application. Our study focuses on two factors that cause rating inflation: heterogeneous user rating behavior and the dynamics of personalized recommendations. We show that user rating behavior substantially varies by user, leading to item quality estimates that reflect the users who rated an item more than the item quality itself. Additionally, items that are more likely to be shown via personalized recommendations can experience a substantial increase in their exposure and potential bias toward them. To mitigate these effects, we analyze the results of a randomized controlled trial in which the rating interface was modified. The test resulted in a substantial improvement in user rating behavior and a reduction in item quality inflation. These findings highlight the importance of carefully considering the assumptions underlying recommendation systems and designing interfaces that encourage accurate rating behavior.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2023

Reflections from the Workshop on AI-Assisted Decision Making for Conservation

In this white paper, we synthesize key points made during presentations and discussions from the AI-Assisted Decision Making for Conservation workshop, hosted by the Center for Research on Computation and Society at Harvard University on October 20-21, 2022. We identify key open research questions in resource allocation, planning, and interventions for biodiversity conservation, highlighting conservation challenges that not only require AI solutions, but also require novel methodological advances. In addition to providing a summary of the workshop talks and discussions, we hope this document serves as a call-to-action to orient the expansion of algorithmic decision-making approaches to prioritize real-world conservation challenges, through collaborative efforts of ecologists, conservation decision-makers, and AI researchers.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Voltage-Dependent Synaptic Plasticity (VDSP): Unsupervised probabilistic Hebbian plasticity rule based on neurons membrane potential

This study proposes voltage-dependent-synaptic plasticity (VDSP), a novel brain-inspired unsupervised local learning rule for the online implementation of Hebb's plasticity mechanism on neuromorphic hardware. The proposed VDSP learning rule updates the synaptic conductance on the spike of the postsynaptic neuron only, which reduces by a factor of two the number of updates with respect to standard spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP). This update is dependent on the membrane potential of the presynaptic neuron, which is readily available as part of neuron implementation and hence does not require additional memory for storage. Moreover, the update is also regularized on synaptic weight and prevents explosion or vanishing of weights on repeated stimulation. Rigorous mathematical analysis is performed to draw an equivalence between VDSP and STDP. To validate the system-level performance of VDSP, we train a single-layer spiking neural network (SNN) for the recognition of handwritten digits. We report 85.01 $ \pm $ 0.76% (Mean $ \pm $ S.D.) accuracy for a network of 100 output neurons on the MNIST dataset. The performance improves when scaling the network size (89.93 $ \pm $ 0.41% for 400 output neurons, 90.56 $ \pm $ 0.27 for 500 neurons), which validates the applicability of the proposed learning rule for spatial pattern recognition tasks. Future work will consider more complicated tasks. Interestingly, the learning rule better adapts than STDP to the frequency of input signal and does not require hand-tuning of hyperparameters

cs.NE↗

arXiv2022

Trucks Don't Mean Trump: Diagnosing Human Error in Image Analysis

Algorithms provide powerful tools for detecting and dissecting human bias and error. Here, we develop machine learning methods to to analyze how humans err in a particular high-stakes task: image interpretation. We leverage a unique dataset of 16,135,392 human predictions of whether a neighborhood voted for Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the 2020 US election, based on a Google Street View image. We show that by training a machine learning estimator of the Bayes optimal decision for each image, we can provide an actionable decomposition of human error into bias, variance, and noise terms, and further identify specific features (like pickup trucks) which lead humans astray. Our methods can be applied to ensure that human-in-the-loop decision-making is accurate and fair and are also applicable to black-box algorithmic systems.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2022

Strategic Ranking

Strategic classification studies the design of a classifier robust to the manipulation of input by strategic individuals. However, the existing literature does not consider the effect of competition among individuals as induced by the algorithm design. Motivated by constrained allocation settings such as college admissions, we introduce strategic ranking, in which the (designed) individual reward depends on an applicant's post-effort rank in a measurement of interest. Our results illustrate how competition among applicants affects the resulting equilibria and model insights. We analyze how various ranking reward designs, belonging to a family of step functions, trade off applicant, school, and societal utility, as well as how ranking design counters inequities arising from disparate access to resources. In particular, we find that randomization in the reward design can mitigate two measures of disparate impact, welfare gap and access.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2022

Fair ranking: a critical review, challenges, and future directions

Ranking, recommendation, and retrieval systems are widely used in online platforms and other societal systems, including e-commerce, media-streaming, admissions, gig platforms, and hiring. In the recent past, a large "fair ranking" research literature has been developed around making these systems fair to the individuals, providers, or content that are being ranked. Most of this literature defines fairness for a single instance of retrieval, or as a simple additive notion for multiple instances of retrievals over time. This work provides a critical overview of this literature, detailing the often context-specific concerns that such an approach misses: the gap between high ranking placements and true provider utility, spillovers and compounding effects over time, induced strategic incentives, and the effect of statistical uncertainty. We then provide a path forward for a more holistic and impact-oriented fair ranking research agenda, including methodological lessons from other fields and the role of the broader stakeholder community in overcoming data bottlenecks and designing effective regulatory environments.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2021

The Stereotyping Problem in Collaboratively Filtered Recommender Systems

Recommender systems play a crucial role in mediating our access to online information. We show that such algorithms induce a particular kind of stereotyping: if preferences for a set of items are anti-correlated in the general user population, then those items may not be recommended together to a user, regardless of that user's preferences and rating history. First, we introduce a notion of joint accessibility, which measures the extent to which a set of items can jointly be accessed by users. We then study joint accessibility under the standard factorization-based collaborative filtering framework, and provide theoretical necessary and sufficient conditions when joint accessibility is violated. Moreover, we show that these conditions can easily be violated when the users are represented by a single feature vector. To improve joint accessibility, we further propose an alternative modelling fix, which is designed to capture the diverse multiple interests of each user using a multi-vector representation. We conduct extensive experiments on real and simulated datasets, demonstrating the stereotyping problem with standard single-vector matrix factorization models.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2021

Alzheimers Dementia Detection using Acoustic & Linguistic features and Pre-Trained BERT

Alzheimers disease is a fatal progressive brain disorder that worsens with time. It is high time we have inexpensive and quick clinical diagnostic techniques for early detection and care. In previous studies, various Machine Learning techniques and Pre-trained Deep Learning models have been used in conjunction with the extraction of various acoustic and linguistic features. Our study focuses on three models for the classification task in the ADReSS (The Alzheimers Dementia Recognition through Spontaneous Speech) 2021 Challenge. We use the well-balanced dataset provided by the ADReSS Challenge for training and validating our models. Model 1 uses various acoustic features from the eGeMAPs feature-set, Model 2 uses various linguistic features that we generated from auto-generated transcripts and Model 3 uses the auto-generated transcripts directly to extract features using a Pre-trained BERT and TF-IDF. These models are described in detail in the models section.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Wheelchair automation by a hybrid BCI system using SSVEP and eye blinks

This work proposes a hybrid Brain Computer Interface system for the automation of a wheelchair for the disabled. Herein a working prototype of a BCI-based wheelchair is detailed that can navigate inside a typical home environment with minimum structural modification and without any visual obstruction and discomfort to the user. The prototype is based on a combined mechanism of steady-state visually evoked potential and eye blinks. To elicit SSVEP, LEDs flickering at 13Hz and 15Hz were used to select the left and right direction, respectively, and EEG data was recorded. In addition, the occurrence of three continuous blinks was used as an indicator for stopping an ongoing action. The wavelet packet denoising method was applied, followed by feature extraction methods such as Wavelet Packet Decomposition and Canonical Correlation Analysis over narrowband reconstructed EEG signals. Bayesian optimization was used to obtain 5 fold cross-validations to optimize the hyperparameters of the Support Vector Machine. The resulting new model was tested and the average cross-validation accuracy 89.65% + 6.6% (SD) and testing accuracy 83.53% + 8.59% (SD) were obtained. The wheelchair was controlled by RaspberryPi through WiFi. The developed prototype demonstrated an average of 86.97% success rate for all trials with 4.015s for each command execution. The prototype can be used efficiently in a home environment without causing any discomfort to the user.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Signals to Spikes for Neuromorphic Regulated Reservoir Computing and EMG Hand Gesture Recognition

Surface electromyogram (sEMG) signals result from muscle movement and hence they are an ideal candidate for benchmarking event-driven sensing and computing. We propose a simple yet novel approach for optimizing the spike encoding algorithm's hyper-parameters inspired by the readout layer concept in reservoir computing. Using a simple machine learning algorithm after spike encoding, we report performance higher than the state-of-the-art spiking neural networks on two open-source datasets for hand gesture recognition. The spike encoded data is processed through a spiking reservoir with a biologically inspired topology and neuron model. When trained with the unsupervised activity regulation CRITICAL algorithm to operate at the edge of chaos, the reservoir yields better performance than state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks. The reservoir performance with regulated activity was found to be 89.72% for the Roshambo EMG dataset and 70.6% for the EMG subset of sensor fusion dataset. Therefore, the biologically-inspired computing paradigm, which is known for being power efficient, also proves to have a great potential when compared with conventional AI algorithms.

eess.SP↗