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Nikhil Sarin

Publications and source records attributed to Nikhil Sarin.

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Tidal Disruption Events through the Lens of the Cooling Envelope Model

The cooling envelope model for tidal disruption events (TDE) postulates that while the stellar debris streams rapidly dissipate their bulk kinetic energy (``circularize"), this does not necessarily imply rapid feeding of the supermassive black hole (SMBH). The bound material instead forms a large pressure-supported envelope which powers optical/UV emission as it undergoes gradual Kelvin-Helmholtz contraction. We present results interpreting a sample of 15 optical TDE within the cooling envelope model in order to constrain the SMBH mass $M_{\rm BH}$, stellar mass $M_{\star}$, and orbital penetration factor $β$. The distributions of inferred properties from our sample broadly follow the theoretical expectations of loss-cone analysis assuming a standard stellar initial mass function. However, we find a deficit of events with $M_{\rm BH} \lesssim 5\times 10^{5}M_{\odot}$ and $M_{\star} \lesssim 0.5M_{\odot}$, which could result in part from the reduced detectability of TDEs with these properties. Our model fits also illustrate the predicted long delay between the optical light curve peak and when the SMBH accretion rate reaches its maximum. The latter occurs only once the envelope contracts to the circularization radius on a timescale of months to years, consistent with delayed-rising X-ray and non-thermal radio flares seen in a growing number of TDE.

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A Generalized Semi-Analytic Model for Magnetar-Driven Supernovae

Several types of energetic supernovae, such as superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) and broad-line Ic supernovae (Ic-BL SNe), could be powered by the spin-down of a rapidly rotating magnetar. Currently, most models used to infer the parameters for potential magnetar-driven supernovae make several unsuitable assumptions that likely bias the estimated parameters. In this work, we present a new model for magnetar-driven supernovae that relaxes several of these assumptions and an inference workflow that enables accurate estimation of parameters from lightcurves of magnetar-driven supernovae. In particular, in this model, we include the dynamical evolution of the ejecta, coupling it to the energy injected by the magnetar itself while also allowing for non-dipole spin down. We show that the model can reproduce SLSN and Ic-BL SN light curves consistent with the parameter space from computationally expensive numerical models. We also show the results of parameter inference on four well-known example supernovae, demonstrating the model's effectiveness at capturing the considerable diversity in magnetar-driven supernova lightcurves. The model fits each light curve well and recovers parameters broadly consistent with previous works. This model will allow us to explore the full diversity of magnetar-driven supernovae under one theoretical framework, more accurately characterize these supernovae from only photometric data, and make more accurate predictions of future multiwavelength emission to test the magnetar-driven scenario better.

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1100 days in the life of the supernova 2018ibb -- The best pair-instability supernova candidate, to date

Abridged - Stars with ZAMS masses between 140 and $260 M_\odot$ are thought to explode as pair-instability supernovae (PISNe). During their thermonuclear runaway, PISNe can produce up to several tens of solar masses of radioactive nickel, resulting in luminous transients similar to some superluminous supernovae (SLSNe). Yet, no unambiguous PISN has been discovered so far. SN2018ibb is a H-poor SLSN at $z=0.166$ that evolves extremely slowly compared to the hundreds of known SLSNe. Between mid 2018 and early 2022, we monitored its photometric and spectroscopic evolution from the UV to the NIR with 2-10m class telescopes. SN2018ibb radiated $>3\times10^{51} \rm erg$ during its evolution, and its bolometric light curve reached $>2\times10^{44} \rm erg\,s^{-1}$ at peak. The long-lasting rise of $>93$ rest-frame days implies a long diffusion time, which requires a very high total ejected mass. The PISN mechanism naturally provides both the energy source ($^{56}$Ni) and the long diffusion time. Theoretical models of PISNe make clear predictions for their photometric and spectroscopic properties. SN2018ibb complies with most tests on the light curves, nebular spectra and host galaxy, potentially all tests with the interpretation we propose. Both the light curve and the spectra require 25-44 $M_\odot$ of freshly nucleosynthesised $^{56}$Ni, pointing to the explosion of a metal-poor star with a He-core mass of 120-130 $M_\odot$ at the time of death. This interpretation is also supported by the tentative detection of [Co II]$λ$1.025$μ$m, which has never been observed in any other PISN candidate or SLSN before. Powering by a central engine, such as a magnetar or a black hole, can be excluded with high confidence. This makes SN2018ibb by far the best candidate for being a PISN, to date.

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Confronting the neutron star population with inverse cascades

The origin and evolution of magnetic fields of neutron stars from birth has long been a source of debate. Here, motivated by recent simulations of the Hall cascade with magnetic helicity, we invoke a model where the large-scale magnetic field of neutron stars grows as a product of small-scale turbulence through an inverse cascade. We apply this model to a simulated population of neutron stars at birth and show how this model can account for the evolution of such objects across the $P\dot{P}$ diagram, explaining both pulsar and magnetar observations. Under the assumption that small-scale turbulence is responsible for large-scale magnetic fields, we place a lower limit on the spherical harmonic degree of the energy-carrying magnetic eddies of $\approx 40$. Our results favor the presence of a highly resistive pasta layer at the base of the neutron star crust. We further discuss the implications of this paradigm on direct observables, such as the nominal age and braking index of pulsars.

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Missed opportunities: GRB 211211A and the case for continual gravitational-wave coverage with a single observatory

Gamma-ray burst GRB 211211A may have been the result of a neutron star merger at $\approx350$ Mpc. However, none of the LIGO-Virgo detectors were operating at the time. We show that the gravitational-wave signal from a \grb-like binary neutron star inspiral in the next LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing run (O4) would be below the conventional detection threshold, however a coincident gamma-ray burst observation would provide necessary information to claim a statistically-significant multimessenger observation. We calculate that with O4 sensitivity, approximately $11\%$ of gamma-ray bursts within 600 Mpc will produce a confident association between the gravitational-wave binary neutron star inspiral signature and the prompt gamma-ray signature. This corresponds to a coincident detection rate of $\unit[0.22^{+8.3}_{-0.22}]{yr^{-1}}$, where the uncertainties are the 90\% confidence intervals arising from uncertainties in the absolute merger rate, beaming and jet-launching fractions. These increase to approximately $34\%$ and $\unit[0.71^{+26.8}_{-0.70}]{yr^{-1}}$ with proposed O5 sensitivity. We show that the above numbers do not depend significantly on the number of gravitational-wave observatories operating with the specific sensitivity. That is, the number of confident joint gamma-ray burst and gravitational-wave detections is only marginally improved with two or three detectors operating compared to a single detector. It is therefore worth considering whether one detector with sufficient sensitivity (post O4) should remain in sky-watch mode at all times to elucidate the true nature of GRB 211211A-like events, a proposal we discuss in detail.

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On the diversity of magnetar-driven kilonovae

A non-negligible fraction of binary neutron star mergers are expected to form long-lived neutron star remnants, dramatically altering the multi-messenger signatures of a merger. Here, we extend existing models for magnetar-driven kilonovae and explore the diversity of kilonovae and kilonova afterglows. Focusing on the role of the (uncertain) magnetic field strength, we study the resulting electromagnetic signatures as a function of the external dipolar and internal toroidal fields. These two parameters govern, respectively, the competition between magnetic-dipole spindown and gravitational-wave spindown (due to magnetic-field deformation) of the rapidly-rotating remnant. We find that even in the parameter space where gravitational-wave emission is dominant, a kilonova with a magnetar central engine will be significantly brighter than one without an engine, as this parameter space is where more of the spin-down luminosity is thermalised. In contrast, a system with minimal gravitational-wave emission will produce a kilonova that may be difficult to distinguish from ordinary kilonovae unless early-epoch observations are available. However, as the bulk of the energy in this parameter space goes into accelerating the ejecta, such a system will produce a brighter kilonova afterglow that will peak on shorter times. To effectively hide the presence of the magnetar from the kilonova and kilonova afterglow, the rotational energy inputted into the ejecta must be $\lesssim 10^{-3}-10^{-2} E_{\rm rot}$. We discuss the different diagnostics available to identify magnetar-driven kilonovae in serendipitous observations and draw parallels to other potential magnetar-driven explosions, such as superluminous supernovae and broad-line supernovae Ic.

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Low-efficiency long gamma-ray bursts: A case study with AT2020blt

The Zwicky Transient Facility recently announced the detection of an optical transient AT2020blt at redshift $z=2.9$, consistent with the afterglow of an on-axis gamma-ray burst. However, no prompt emission was observed. We analyse AT2020blt with detailed models, showing the data are best explained as the afterglow of an on-axis long gamma-ray burst, ruling out other hypotheses such as a cocoon and a low-Lorentz factor jet. We search \textit{Fermi} data for prompt emission, setting deeper upper limits on the prompt emission than in the original detection paper. Together with KONUS-\textit{Wind} observations, we show that the gamma-ray efficiency of AT2020blt is $\lesssim 0.3 - 4.5\%$. We speculate that AT2020blt and AT2021any belong to the low-efficiency tail of long gamma-ray burst distributions that are beginning to be readily observed due to the capabilities of new observatories like the Zwicky Transient Facility.

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Linking the rates of neutron star binaries and short gamma-ray bursts

Short gamma-ray bursts are believed to be produced by both binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star-black hole (NSBH) mergers. We use current estimates for the BNS and NSBH merger rates to calculate the fraction of observable short gamma-ray bursts produced through each channel. This allows us to constrain merger rates of BNS to $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{BNS}}=384^{+431}_{-213}{\rm{Gpc}^{-3} \rm{yr}^{-1}}$ ($90\%$ credible interval), a $16\%$ decrease in the rate uncertainties from the second LIGO--Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog, GWTC-2. Assuming a top-hat emission profile with a large Lorentz factor, we constrain the average opening angle of gamma-ray burst jets produced in BNS mergers to $\approx 15^\circ$. We also measure the fraction of BNS and NSBH mergers that produce an observable short gamma-ray burst to be $0.02^{+0.02}_{-0.01}$ and $0.01 \pm 0.01$, respectively and find that $\gtrsim 40\%$ of BNS mergers launch jets (90\% confidence). We forecast constraints for future gravitational-wave detections given different modelling assumptions, including the possibility that BNS and NSBH jets are different. With $24$ BNS and $55$ NSBH observations, expected within six months of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA network operating at design sensitivity, it will be possible to constrain the fraction of BNS and NSBH mergers that launch jets with $10\%$ precision. Within a year of observations, we can determine whether the jets launched in NSBH mergers have a different structure than those launched in BNS mergers and rule out whether $\gtrsim 80\%$ of binary neutron star mergers launch jets. We discuss the implications of future constraints on understanding the physics of short gamma-ray bursts and binary evolution.

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The evolution of binary neutron star post-merger remnants: a review

Two neutron stars merge somewhere in the Universe approximately every 10 seconds, creating violent explosions observable in gravitational waves and across the electromagnetic spectrum. The transformative coincident gravitational-wave and electromagnetic observations of the binary neutron star merger GW170817 gave invaluable insights into these cataclysmic collisions, probing bulk nuclear matter at supranuclear densities, the jet structure of gamma-ray bursts, the speed of gravity, and the cosmological evolution of the local Universe, among other things. Despite the wealth of information, it is still unclear when the remnant of GW170817 collapsed to form a black hole. Evidence from other short gamma-ray bursts indicates a large fraction of mergers may form long-lived neutron stars. We review what is known observationally and theoretically about binary neutron star post-merger remnants. From a theoretical perspective, we review our understanding of the evolution of short- and long-lived merger remnants, including fluid, magnetic-field, and temperature evolution. These considerations impact prospects of detection of gravitational waves from either short- or long-lived neutron star remnants which potentially allows for new probes into the hot nuclear equation of state in conditions inaccessible in terrestrial experiments. We also review prospects for determining post-merger physics from current and future electromagnetic observations, including kilonovae and late-time x-ray and radio afterglow observations.

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Multimessenger astronomy with a kHz-band gravitational-wave observatory

Proposed next-generation networks of gravitational-wave observatories include dedicated kilohertz instruments that target neutron star science, such as the proposed Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory, NEMO. The original proposal for NEMO highlighted the need for it to exist in a network of gravitational-wave observatories to ensure detection confidence and sky localisation of sources. We show that NEMO-like observatories have significant utility on their own as coincident electromagnetic observations can provide the detection significance and sky localisation. We show that, with a single NEMO-like detector and expected electromagnetic observatories in the late 2020s and early 2030s such as the Vera C. Rubin observatory and SVOM, approximately $40\%$ of all binary neutron star mergers detected with gravitational waves could be confidently identified as coincident multimessenger detections. We show that we expect $2^{+10}_{-1}\rm{yr}^{-1}$ coincident observations of gravitational-wave mergers with gamma-ray burst prompt emission, $13^{+23}_{-10}\rm{yr}^{-1}$ detections with kilonova observations, and $4^{+18}_{-3}\rm{yr}^{-1}$ with broadband afterglows and kilonovae, where the uncertainties are $90\%$ confidence intervals arising from uncertainty in current merger-rate estimates. Combined, this implies a coincident detection rate of $14^{+25}_{-11}\rm{yr}^{-1}$ out to $300\rm{Mpc}$. These numbers indicate significant science potential for a single kilohertz gravitational-wave detector operating without a global network of other gravitational-wave observatories.

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CDF-S XT1: The off-axis afterglow of a neutron star merger at $z=2.23$

CDF-S XT1 is a fast-rising non-thermal X-ray transient detected by \textit{Chandra} in the Deep-Field South Survey. Although various hypotheses have been suggested, the origin of this transient remains unclear. Here, we show that the observations of CDF-S XT1 are well explained as the X-ray afterglow produced by a relativistic structured jet viewed off-axis. We measure properties of the jet, showing that they are similar to those of GRB170817A, albeit at cosmological distances. We measure the observers viewing angle to be $θ_{\textrm{obs}} = 10^{\circ}\pm3^{\circ}$ and the core of the ultra-relativistic jet to be $θ_{\textrm{core}} = 4.4^{\circ}\pm0.9^{\circ}$, where the uncertainties are the $68\%$ credible interval. The inferred properties and host galaxy combined with Hubble, radio, and optical non detections favour the hypothesis that CDF-S XT1 is the off-axis afterglow of a binary neutron star merger. We find that other previously suggested hypotheses are unable to explain all properties of CDF-S XT1. At a redshift of $z=2.23$, this is potentially the most distant observed neutron star merger to date and the first orphan afterglow of a short gamma-ray burst. We discuss the implications of a binary neutron star merger at such a high redshift for the star-formation rate in the early Universe, the nucleosynthesis of heavy elements, and the prospect of identifying other off-axis afterglows.

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Interpreting the X-ray afterglows of gamma-ray bursts with radiative losses and millisecond magnetars

The spin-down energy of millisecond magnetars has been invoked to explain X-ray afterglow observations of a significant fraction of short and long gamma-ray bursts. Here, we extend models previously introduced in the literature, incorporating radiative losses with the spin down of a magnetar central engine through an arbitrary braking index. Combining this with a model for the tail of the prompt emission, we show that our model can better explain the data than millisecond-magnetar models without radiative losses or those that invoke spin down solely through vacuum dipole radiation. We find that our model predicts a subset of X-ray flares seen in some gamma-ray bursts. We can further explain the diversity of X-ray plateaus by altering the radiative efficiency and measure the braking index of newly-born millisecond magnetars. We measure the braking index of GRB061121 as $n=4.85^{+0.11}_{-0.15}$ suggesting the millisecond-magnetar born in this gamma-ray burst spins down predominantly through gravitational-wave emission.

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Gravitational waves or deconfined quarks: what causes the premature collapse of neutron stars born in short gamma-ray bursts?

We infer the collapse times of long-lived neutron stars into black holes using the X-ray afterglows of 18 short gamma-ray bursts. We then apply hierarchical inference to infer properties of the neutron star equation of state and dominant spin-down mechanism. We measure the maximum non-rotating neutron star mass $M_\mathrm{TOV} = 2.31 ^{+0.36}_{-0.21} M_{\odot}$ and constrain the fraction of remnants spinning down predominantly through gravitational-wave emission to $η= 0.69 ^{+0.21}_{-0.39}$ with $68 \%$ uncertainties. In principle, this method can determine the difference between hadronic and quark equation of states. In practice, however, the data is not yet informative with indications that these neutron stars do not have hadronic equation of states at the $1σ$ level. These inferences all depend on the underlying progenitor mass distribution for short gamma-ray bursts produced by binary neutron star mergers. The recently announced gravitational-wave detection of GW190425 suggests this underlying distribution is different from the locally-measured population of double neutron stars. We show that $M_\mathrm{TOV}$ and $η$ constraints depend on the fraction of binary mergers that form through a distribution consistent with the locally-measured population and a distribution that can explain GW190425. The more binaries that form from the latter distribution, the larger $M_\mathrm{TOV}$ needs to be to satisfy the X-ray observations. Our measurements above are marginalised over this unknown fraction. If instead, we assume GW190425 is not a binary neutron star merger, i.e the underlying mass distribution of double neutron stars is the same as observed locally, we measure $M_\mathrm{TOV} = 2.26 ^{+0.31}_{-0.17} M_{\odot}$.

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Neutron Star Merger Remnants: Braking Indices, Gravitational Waves, and the Equation Of State

The binary neutron star merger GW170817/GRB170817A confirmed that at least some neutron star mergers are the progenitors of short gamma-ray bursts. Many short gamma-ray bursts have long-term x-ray afterglows that have been interpreted in terms of post-merger millisecond magnetars---rapidly rotating, highly magnetised, massive neutron stars. We review our current understanding of millisecond magnetars born in short gamma-ray bursts, focusing particularly three main topics. First, whether millisecond magnetars really do provide the most plausible explain for the x-ray plateau. Second, determining and observing the gravitational-wave emission from these remnants. Third, determining the equation of state of nuclear matter from current and future x-ray and gravitational-wave measurements.

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X-ray afterglows of Short gamma-ray bursts: Magnetar or Fireball?

The origin of the X-ray afterglows of gamma-ray bursts has regularly been debated. We fit both the fireball-shock and millisecond-magnetar models of gamma-ray bursts to the X-ray data of GRB 130603B and 140903A. We use Bayesian model selection to answer the question of which model best explains the data. This is dependent on the maximum allowed non-rotating neutron star mass $M_{\textrm{TOV}}$, which depends solely on the unknown nuclear equation of state. We show that the data for GRB140903A favours the millisecond-magnetar model for all possible equations of state, while the data for GRB130603B favours the millisecond-magnetar model if $M_{\textrm{TOV}} \gtrsim 2.3 M_{\odot}$. If $M_{\textrm{TOV}} \lesssim 2.3 M_{\odot}$, the data for GRB130603B supports the fireball-shock model. We discuss implications of this result in regards to the nuclear equation of state and the prospect of gravitational-wave emission from newly-born millisecond magnetars.

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Bilby: A user-friendly Bayesian inference library for gravitational-wave astronomy

Bayesian parameter estimation is fast becoming the language of gravitational-wave astronomy. It is the method by which gravitational-wave data is used to infer the sources' astrophysical properties. We introduce a user-friendly Bayesian inference library for gravitational-wave astronomy, Bilby. This python code provides expert-level parameter estimation infrastructure with straightforward syntax and tools that facilitate use by beginners. It allows users to perform accurate and reliable gravitational-wave parameter estimation on both real, freely-available data from LIGO/Virgo, and simulated data. We provide a suite of examples for the analysis of compact binary mergers and other types of signal model including supernovae and the remnants of binary neutron star mergers. These examples illustrate how to change the signal model, how to implement new likelihood functions, and how to add new detectors. Bilby has additional functionality to do population studies using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. We provide an example in which we infer the shape of the black hole mass distribution from an ensemble of observations of binary black hole mergers.

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X-ray guided gravitational-wave search for binary neutron star merger remnants

X-ray observations of some short gamma-ray bursts indicate that a long-lived neutron star can form as a remnant of a binary neutron star merger. We develop a gravitational-wave detection pipeline for a long-lived binary neutron star merger remnant guided by these counterpart electromagnetic observations. We determine the distance out to which a gravitational-wave signal can be detected with Advanced LIGO at design sensitivity and the Einstein Telescope using this method, guided by X-ray data from GRB140903A as an example. Such gravitational waves can in principle be detected out to $\sim$ 20 Mpc for Advanced LIGO and $\sim$ 450 Mpc for the Einstein Telescope assuming a fiducial ellipticity of $10^{-2}$. However, in practice we can rule out such high values of the ellipticity as the total energy emitted in gravitational waves would be greater than the total rotational energy budget of the system. We show how these observations can be used to place upper limits on the ellipticity using these energy considerations. For GRB140903A, the upper limit on the ellipticity is $10^{-3}$, which lowers the detectable distance to $\sim$ 2 Mpc and $\sim$ 45 Mpc for Advanced LIGO and the Einstein Telescope, respectively.

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