arXiv subjects

Niklas Valentin Lehmann

Publications and source records attributed to Niklas Valentin Lehmann.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts

Open online crowd-prediction platforms are increasingly used to forecast trends and complex events. Despite the large body of research on crowd-prediction and forecasting tournaments, online crowd-prediction platforms have never been directly compared to other forecasting methods. In this analysis, exchange rate crowd-predictions made on Metaculus are compared to predictions made by the random-walk, a statistical model considered extremely hard-to-beat. The random-walk provides less erroneous forecasts, but the crowd-prediction does very well. By using the random-walk as a benchmark, this analysis provides a rare glimpse into the forecasting skill displayed on open online crowd-prediction platforms.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Mechanisms for belief elicitation without ground truth

This review article examines the challenge of eliciting truthful information from multiple individuals when such information cannot be verified, a problem known as information elicitation without verification (IEWV). This article reviews over 25 mechanisms designed to incentivize truth-telling in such scenarios and their effectiveness in empirical studies. Although many mechanisms theoretically ensure truthfulness as a Bayesian Nash Equilibrium, empirical evidence regarding the effects of mechanisms on truth-telling is limited and generally weak. Consequently, more empirical research is needed to validate mechanisms. However, empirical validaton is difficult because most mechanisms are very complex and cannot be easily conveyed to research subjects. This review suggests that simple and intuitive mechanisms may be easier to empirically test and apply.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Smart treaties: A path to binding agreements in international relations?

Can we create binding agreements between nations? Recently, scholars have argued that blockchain technology enables us to do so. Given that this could greatly affect the anarchical world order implied by state sovereignty, this remarkable claim is investigated thoroughly. By focusing on the technical implementation of smart contracts between nations, this article finds that the potential to create binding agreements using blockchain technology is far more limited than recently suggested.

econ.GN↗