arXiv subjects

Nikolaos I. Stilianakis

Publications and source records attributed to Nikolaos I. Stilianakis.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

An epidemiological model with waning immunity and reinfection

Waning immunity and reinfection are critical features of many infectious diseases, but epidemiological models often fail to capture the intricate interaction between an individual's history of immunity and their current infection status; when they do, the approach is usually overly simplistic. We develop a novel dual-age structured model that simultaneously tracks immunity age (time since the last recovery from infection) and infection age (time since infection) to analyze epidemic dynamics under conditions of waning immunity and reinfection. The model is formulated as a system of age-structured partial differential equations that describe susceptible and infected populations stratified by both immunity and infection ages. We derive basic reproduction numbers associated with the model and numerically solve the system using a second-order Runge-Kutta scheme along the characteristic lines. We further extend the model to explore vaccination interventions, specifically targeting individuals according to their immunity age. Numerical results reveal that higher contact rates produce larger amplitude oscillations with longer interepidemic periods. The relationship between initial infection levels and long-term epidemic behavior is nonmonotonic. Vaccination efficiency depends critically on the viral load profile across immunity and infection age, with more pronounced viral load distributions requiring higher vaccination rates for disease elimination. Most efficient vaccination strategies begin with intermediate immunity ages rather than targeting only fully susceptible individuals. The structured dual-age framework provides a flexible approach to analyzing the dynamics of reinfection and evaluating targeted vaccination strategies based on the history of immunity.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

An Epidemiological Knowledge Graph extracted from the World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News

The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), together with the increased availability of social media and news for epidemiological surveillance, are marking a pivotal moment in epidemiology and public health research. Leveraging the power of generative AI, we use an ensemble approach which incorporates multiple Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract valuable actionable epidemiological information from the World Health Organization (WHO) Disease Outbreak News (DONs). DONs is a collection of regular reports on global outbreaks curated by the WHO and the adopted decision-making processes to respond to them. The extracted information is made available in a daily-updated dataset and a knowledge graph, referred to as eKG, derived to provide a nuanced representation of the public health domain knowledge. We provide an overview of this new dataset and describe the structure of eKG, along with the services and tools used to access and utilize the data that we are building on top. These innovative data resources open altogether new opportunities for epidemiological research, and the analysis and surveillance of disease outbreaks.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Epidemic Information Extraction for Event-Based Surveillance using Large Language Models

This paper presents a novel approach to epidemic surveillance, leveraging the power of Artificial Intelligence and Large Language Models (LLMs) for effective interpretation of unstructured big data sources, like the popular ProMED and WHO Disease Outbreak News. We explore several LLMs, evaluating their capabilities in extracting valuable epidemic information. We further enhance the capabilities of the LLMs using in-context learning, and test the performance of an ensemble model incorporating multiple open-source LLMs. The findings indicate that LLMs can significantly enhance the accuracy and timeliness of epidemic modelling and forecasting, offering a promising tool for managing future pandemic events.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2023

On modeling airborne infection risk

Airborne infection risk analysis is usually performed for enclosed spaces where susceptible individuals are exposed to infectious airborne respiratory droplets by inhalation. It is usually based on exponential, dose-response models of which a widely used variant is the Wells-Riley (WR) model. We revisit this infection-risk estimate and extend it to the population level. We use an epidemiological model where the mode of pathogen transmission, either airborne or contact, is explicitly considered. We illustrate the link between epidemiological models and the WR model. We argue that airborne infection quanta are, up to an overall density, airborne infectious respiratory droplets modified by a parameter that depends on biological properties of the pathogen, physical properties of the droplet, and behavioural parameters of the individual. We calculate the time-dependent risk to be infected during the epidemic for two scenarios. We show how the epidemic infection risk depends on the viral latent period and the event time, the time infection occurs. The infection risk follows the dynamics of the infected population. As the latency period decreases, infection risk increases. The longer a susceptible is present in the epidemic, the higher is its risk of infection by equal exposure time to the mode of transmission.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2023

A mathematical model for the within-host (re)infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

Interactions between SARS-CoV-2 and the immune system during infection are complex. However, understanding the within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics is of enormous importance, especially when it comes to assessing treatment options. Mathematical models have been developed to describe the within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and to dissect the mechanisms underlying COVID-19 pathogenesis. Current mathematical models focus on the acute infection phase, thereby ignoring important post-acute infection effects. We present a mathematical model, which not only describes the SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics during the acute infection phase, but also reflects the recovery of the number of susceptible epithelial cells to an initial pre-infection homeostatic level, shows clearance of the infection within the individual, immune waning, and the formation of long-term immune response levels after infection. Moreover, the model accommodates reinfection events assuming a new virus variant with either increased infectivity or immune escape. Together, the model provides an improved reflection of the SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics within humans, particularly important when using mathematical models to develop or optimize treatment options.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2013

Indirect transmission and the effect of seasonal pathogen inactivation on infectious disease periodicity

The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental conditions on pathogen survival. A model describing the transmission of an infectious disease by means of a pathogenic state capable of surviving in an environmental reservoir outside of its host organism is presented in this paper. The ratio of pathogen lifespan to the duration of the infectious disease state is found to be a critical parameter in determining disease dynamics. The introduction of a seasonally forced pathogen inactivation rate identifies a time delay between peak pathogen survival and peak disease incidence. The delay is dependent on specific disease parameters and, for influenza, decreases with increasing reproduction number. The observed seasonal oscillations are found to have a period identical to that of the seasonally forced inactivation rate and which is independent of the duration of infection acquired immunity

q-bio.PE↗