arXiv subjects

Nikolas Geroliminis

Publications and source records attributed to Nikolas Geroliminis.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

A Coverage Control-based Idle Vehicle Rebalancing Approach for Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand Systems

As an emerging mode of urban transportation, Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand (AMoD) systems show the potential in improving mobility in cities through timely and door-to-door services. However, the spatiotemporal imbalances between mobility demand and supply may lead to inefficiencies and a low quality of service. Vehicle rebalancing (i.e., dispatching idle vehicles to high-demand areas), is a potential solution for efficient AMoD fleet management. In this paper, we formulate the vehicle rebalancing problem as a coverage control problem for the deployment of a fleet of mobile agents for AMoD operation in urban areas. Performance is demonstrated via microscopic simulations representing a large urban road network of Shenzhen, China. Results reveal the potential of the proposed method in improving service rates and decreasing passenger waiting times.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

A Dynamic Macroscopic Framework for Pricing of Ride-hailing Services with an Optional Bus Lane Access for Pool Vehicles

On-demand trip sharing is an efficient solution to mitigate the negative impact e-hailing has on congestion. It motivates platform operators to reduce their fleet size, and serves the same demand level with a lower effective distance traveled. Users nevertheless prefer to travel solo and for shorter distances despite the fare discount they receive. By offering them the choice to pool and travel in high occupancy dedicated bus lanes, we provide them with a larger incentive to share their rides, yet this creates additional bus delays. In this work, we develop dynamic feedback-based control schemes that adjust the price gap between solo and pool trips to improve multi-modal delays. First, we develop a modal- and space-dependent aggregate model for private vehicles, ride-pooling, and buses, and we use this model to test different control strategies. To minimize the error between the target and actual speeds in the bus network, we design a PI controller and show that by adjusting pool trip fares, we can, with little input data, minimize this error. We also put forward a Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework to minimize the total Passenger Hours Traveled (PHT) and Waiting Times (WT) for the different travelers. Moreover, we show how the MPC framework can be utilized to impose a minimum speed in dedicated bus lanes to ensure that the buses operate on schedule. The results mark the possibility of improving the overall network conditions by incentivizing or discouraging pooling in the vehicle or bus network.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Learning How to Price Charging in Electric Ride-Hailing Markets

With the electrification of ride-hailing fleets, there will be a need to incentivize where and when the ride-hailing vehicles should charge. In this work, we assume that a central authority wants to control the distribution of the vehicles and can do so by selecting charging prices. Since there will likely be more than one ride-hailing company in the market, we model the problem as a single-leader multiple-follower Stackelberg game. The followers, i.e., the companies, compete about the charging resources under given prices provided by the leader. We present a learning algorithm based on the concept of contextual bandits that allows the central authority to find an efficient pricing strategy. We also show how the exploratory phase of the learning can be improved if the leader has some partial knowledge about the companies' objective functions. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated in a simulated case study for the city of Shenzhen, China.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

On Finding the Leader's Strategy in Quadratic Aggregative Stackelberg Pricing Games

This paper analyzes a class of Stackelberg games where different actors compete for shared resources and a central authority tries to balance the demand through a pricing mechanism. Situations like this can for instance occur when fleet owners of electric taxi services compete about charging spots. In this paper, we model the competition between the followers as an aggregative game, i.e., each player's decision only depends on the aggregate strategy of the others. While it has previously been shown that there exist dynamic pricing strategies to achieve the central authority's objective, we in this paper present a method to compute optimal static prices. Proof of convergence of the method is presented, together with a numerical study showcasing the benefits and the speed of convergence of the proposed method.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

A ride time-oriented scheduling algorithm for dial-a-ride problems

This paper offers a new algorithm to efficiently optimize scheduling decisions for dial-a-ride problems (DARPs), including problem variants considering electric and autonomous vehicles (e-ADARPs). The scheduling heuristic, based on linear programming theory, aims at finding minimal user ride time schedules in polynomial time. The algorithm can either return optimal feasible routes or it can return incorrect infeasibility declarations, on which feasibility can be recovered through a specifically-designed heuristic. The algorithm is furthermore supplemented by a battery management algorithm that can be used to determine charging decisions for electric and autonomous vehicle fleets. Timing solutions from the proposed scheduling algorithm are obtained on millions of routes extracted from DARP and e-ADARP benchmark instances. They are compared to those obtained from a linear program, as well as to popular scheduling procedures from the DARP literature. Results show that the proposed procedure outperforms state-of-the-art scheduling algorithms, both in terms of compute-efficiency and solution quality.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

A dynamic multi-region MFD model for ride-sourcing with ridesplitting

Dynamic network-level models directly addressing ride-sourcing services can support the development of efficient strategies for both congestion alleviation and promotion of more sustainable mobility. Recent developments presented models focusing on ride-hailing (solo rides), but no work addressed ridesplitting (shared rides) in dynamic contexts. Here, we sought to develop a dynamic aggregated traffic network model capable of representing ride-sourcing services and background traffic in a macroscopic multi-region urban network. We combined the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) with detailed state-space and transition descriptions of background traffic and ride-sourcing vehicles in their activities to formulate mass conservation equations. Accumulation-based MFD models might experience additional errors due to the variation profile of trip lengths, e.g., when vehicles cruise for passengers. We integrate the so-called M-model that utilizes the total remaining distance to capture dynamics of regional and inter-regional flows and accumulations for different vehicle (private or ride-sourcing) states. This aggregated model is capable to reproduce the dynamics of complex systems without using resource-expensive simulations. We also show that the model can accurately forecast the vehicles' conditions in near-future predictions. Later, a comparison with benchmark models showed lower errors in the proposed model in all states. Finally, we evaluated the model's robustness to noises in its inputs, and forecast errors remained below 15% even where inputs were 20% off the actual values for ride-sourcing vehicles. The development of such a model prepares the path for developing real-time feedback-based management policies such as priority-based perimeter control or repositioning strategies for idle ride-sourcing vehicles and developing regulations over ride-sourcing in congested areas.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

A Hybrid Microscopic Model for Multimodal Traffic with Empirical Observations from Aerial Footage

Microscopic traffic flow models can be distinguished in lane-based or lane-free depending on the degree of lane-discipline. This distinction holds true only if motorcycles are neglected in lane-based traffic. In cities, as opposed to highways, this is an oversimplification and it would be more accurate to speak of hybrid situations, where lane discipline can be made mode-dependent. Empirical evidence shows that cars follow the lanes as defined by the infrastructure, while motorcycles do not necessarily adhere to predefined norms and may participate in self-organized formation of virtual lanes. This phenomenon is the result of complex interactions between different traffic participants competing for limited space. In order to better understand the dynamics of modal interaction microscopically, we first analyze empirical data from detailed trajectories obtained by the pNEUMA experiment and observe patterns of mixed traffic. Then, we propose a hybrid model for multimodal vehicular traffic. The hybrid model is inspired by the pedestrian flow literature, featuring collision-free and anticipatory properties, and we demonstrate that it is able to reproduce empirical observations from aerial footage.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Two-layer adaptive signal control framework for large-scale dynamically-congested networks: Combining efficient Max Pressure with Perimeter Control

Traffic-responsive signal control is a cost-effective and easy-to-implement network management strategy with high potential in improving performance in congested networks with dynamic characteristics. Max Pressure (MP) distributed controller gained significant popularity due to its theoretically proven ability of queue stabilization and throughput maximization under specific assumptions. However, its effectiveness under saturated conditions is questionable, while network-wide application is limited due to high instrumentation cost. Perimeter control (PC) based on the concept of the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) is a state-of-the-art aggregated strategy that regulates exchange flows between regions, in order to maintain maximum regional travel production and prevent over-saturation. Yet, homogeneity assumption is hardly realistic in congested states, thus compromising PC efficiency. In this paper, the effectiveness of network-wide, parallel application of PC and MP embedded in a two-layer control framework is assessed with mesoscopic simulation. Aiming at reducing implementation cost of MP without significant performance loss, we propose a method to identify critical nodes for partial MP deployment. A modified version of Store-and-forward paradigm incorporating finite queue and spill-back consideration is used to test different configurations of the proposed framework, for a real large-scale network, in moderately and highly congested scenarios. Results show that: (i) combined control of MP and PC outperforms separate MP and PC applications in both demand scenarios; (ii) MP control in reduced critical node sets leads to similar or even better performance compared to full-network implementation, thus allowing for significant cost reduction; iii) the proposed control schemes improve system performance even under demand fluctuations of up to 20% of mean.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Hierarchical Pricing Game for Balancing the Charging of Ride-Hailing Electric Fleets

Due to the ever-increasing popularity of ride-hailing services and the indisputable shift towards alternative fuel vehicles, the intersection of the ride-hailing market and smart electric mobility provides an opportunity to trade different services to achieve societal optimum. In this work, we present a hierarchical, game-based, control mechanism for balancing the simultaneous charging of multiple ride-hailing fleets. The mechanism takes into account sometimes conflicting interests of the ride-hailing drivers, the ride-hailing company management, and the external agents such as power-providing companies or city governments that will play a significant role in charging management in the future. The upper-level control considers charging price incentives and models the interactions between the external agents and ride-hailing companies as a Reverse Stackelberg game with a single leader and multiple followers. The lower-level control motivates the revenue-maximizing drivers to follow the company operator's requests through surge pricing and models the interactions as a single leader, multiple followers Stackelberg game. We provide a pricing mechanism that ensures the existence of a unique Nash equilibrium of the upper-level game that minimizes the external agent's objective at the same time. We provide theoretical and experimental robustness analysis of the upper-level control with respect to parameters whose values depend on sensitive information that might not be entirely accessible to the external agent. For the lower-level algorithm, we combine the Nash equilibrium of the upper-level game with a quadratic mixed integer optimization problem to find the optimal surge prices. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the control mechanism in a case study based on real taxi data from the city of Shenzhen in China.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

A Pricing Mechanism for Balancing the Charging of Ride-Hailing Electric Vehicle Fleets

Both ride-hailing services and electric vehicles are becoming increasingly popular and it is likely that charging management of the ride-hailing vehicles will be a significant part of the ride-hailing company's operation in the near future. Motivated by this, we propose a game theoretic model for charging management, where we assume that it is the fleet-operator that wants to minimize its operational cost, which among others include the price of charging. To avoid overcrowded charging stations, a central authority will design pricing policies to incentivize the vehicles to spread out among the charging stations, in a setting where several ride-hailing companies compete about the resources. We show that it is possible to construct pricing policies that make the Nash-equilibrium between the companies follow the central authority's target value when the desired load is feasible. Moreover, we provide a decentralized algorithm for computation of the equilibrium and conclude the paper with a numerical example illustrating the results.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

A Continuum Approximation Approach to the Hub Location Problem in a Crowd-Shipping System

Last-mile delivery in the logistics chain contributes to emissions and increased congestion. Crowd-shipping is a sustainable and low-cost alternative to traditional delivery, but relies heavily on the availability of occasional couriers. In this work, we propose a hub-based crowd-shipping system that aims to attract sufficient potential crowd-shippers to serve a large portion of the demand for small parcels. While small-scale versions of this problem have been recently addressed, a scaling to larger instances significantly complexifies the problem. A heuristic approach based on continuum approximation is designed to evaluate the quality of a potential set of hub locations. By combining an efficient and accurate approximation method with a large neighborhood search heuristic, we are able to efficiently find a good set of hub locations, even for large scale networks. Furthermore, on top of determining good hub locations, our methods allow to identify the expected number of delivered parcels in every region, which can be used to design a smart dynamic assignment strategy. A case study on the Washington DC network shows that hubs are built at locations that are both geographically central, but most importantly are popular origins for crowd-shippers. The optimal number of hubs is mainly dependent on the marginal number of parcels that can be served by crowd-shippers from a specific hub, relative to the costs involved in opening that hub. The performance of our algorithm is close to that of a simulation-optimization algorithm, yet being up to 25 times faster. Thereby, the results show a dynamic assignment policy based on continuum approximation estimates outperforms existing assignment strategies.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Traffic signal prediction on transportation networks using spatio-temporal correlations on graphs

Multivariate time series forecasting poses challenges as the variables are intertwined in time and space, like in the case of traffic signals. Defining signals on graphs relaxes such complexities by representing the evolution of signals over a space using relevant graph kernels such as the heat diffusion kernel. However, this kernel alone does not fully capture the actual dynamics of the data as it only relies on the graph structure. The gap can be filled by combining the graph kernel representation with data-driven models that utilize historical data. This paper proposes a traffic propagation model that merges multiple heat diffusion kernels into a data-driven prediction model to forecast traffic signals. We optimize the model parameters using Bayesian inference to minimize the prediction errors and, consequently, determine the mixing ratio of the two approaches. Such mixing ratio strongly depends on training data size and data anomalies, which typically correspond to the peak hours for traffic data. The proposed model demonstrates prediction accuracy comparable to that of the state-of-the-art deep neural networks with lower computational effort. It notably achieves excellent performance for long-term prediction through the inheritance of periodicity modeling in data-driven models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Travel time prediction for congested freeways with a dynamic linear model

Accurate prediction of travel time is an essential feature to support Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). The non-linearity of traffic states, however, makes this prediction a challenging task. Here we propose to use dynamic linear models (DLMs) to approximate the non-linear traffic states. Unlike a static linear regression model, the DLMs assume that their parameters are changing across time. We design a DLM with model parameters defined at each time unit to describe the spatio-temporal characteristics of time-series traffic data. Based on our DLM and its model parameters analytically trained using historical data, we suggest an optimal linear predictor in the minimum mean square error (MMSE) sense. We compare our prediction accuracy of travel time for freeways in California (I210-E and I5-S) under highly congested traffic conditions with those of other methods: the instantaneous travel time, k-nearest neighbor, support vector regression, and artificial neural network. We show significant improvements in the accuracy, especially for short-term prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

On the inefficiency of ride-sourcing services towards urban congestion

The advent of shared-economy and smartphones made on-demand transportation services possible, which created additional opportunities, but also more complexity to urban mobility. Companies that offer these services are called Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) due to their internet-based nature. Although ride-sourcing is the most notorious service TNCs provide, little is known about to what degree its operations can interfere in traffic conditions, while replacing other transportation modes, or when a large number of idle vehicles is cruising for passengers. We experimentally analyze the efficiency of TNCs using taxi trip data from a Chinese megacity and a agent-based simulation with a trip-based MFD model for determining the speed. We investigate the effect of expanding fleet sizes for TNCs, passengers' inclination towards sharing rides, and strategies to alleviate urban congestion. We show that the lack of coordination of objectives between TNCs and society can create 37% longer travel times and significant congestion. Moreover, allowing shared rides is not capable of decreasing total distance traveled due to higher empty kilometers traveled. Elegant parking management strategies can prevent idle vehicles from cruising without assigned passengers and lower to 7% the impacts of the absence of coordination.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2011

The Spatial Variability of Vehicle Densities as Determinant of Urban Network Capacity

Due to the complexity of the traffic flow dynamics in urban road networks, most quantitative descriptions of city traffic so far are based on computer simulations. This contribution pursues a macroscopic (fluid-dynamic) simulation approach, which facilitates a simple simulation of congestion spreading in cities. First, we show that a quantization of the macroscopic turning flows into units of single vehicles is necessary to obtain realistic fluctuations in the traffic variables, and how this can be implemented in a fluid-dynamic model. Then, we propose a new method to simulate destination flows without the requirement of individual route assignments. Combining both methods allows us to study a variety of different simulation scenarios. These reveal fundamental relationships between the average flow, the average density, and the variability of the vehicle densities. Considering the inhomogeneity of traffic as an independent variable can eliminate the scattering of congested flow measurements. The variability also turns out to be a key variable of urban traffic performance. Our results can be explained through the number of full links of the road network, and approximated by a simple analytical formula.

physics.flu-dyn↗