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Nils Schöneberg

Publications and source records attributed to Nils Schöneberg.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Accelerating massive ensembles of ordinary differential equations

Solving large ensembles of small, independent ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is a common task in computational science and engineering, arising for example in Bayesian parameter estimation, Monte Carlo uncertainty quantification, and the integration of uncoupled physical systems such as the linearised Einstein-Boltzmann equations of cosmology. Modern graphics processing units (GPUs) with thousands of cores are well suited to such parallel workloads, but realising this potential requires careful attention to GPU-specific architectural constraints. We present modax, a Python library of GPU-accelerated ODE solvers specifically optimised for solving large ensembles of low-dimensional, independent problems. Our solvers are compatible with the JAX ecosystem but are written in a low-level, thread-based programming paradigm better suited to ensembles of highly divergent trajectories than their pure-JAX counterparts. Benchmarks on the Lorenz, Robertson and van der Pol lattice systems compare modax against diffrax, DiffEqGPU$.$jl and torchdiffeq across ensemble size, dimensionality, and trajectory divergence. Our explicit Tsit5 solver achieves 30x speed-up over diffrax on Lorenz systems, and our implicit Rodas5P solver achieves over 700x speed-up on Robertson systems, demonstrating the superiority of linearly implicit Rosenbrock-Wanner methods on GPUs. Our implicit solver scales well to higher dimensions thanks to the use of sparsity-exploiting techniques and data structures. We conclude by applying modax to three examples from the field of cosmology - Bayesian parameter estimation from primordial abundances, Monte Carlo uncertainty quantification of the global 21cm signal, and the computation of uncoupled Fourier modes in the primordial power spectrum - and demonstrate significant efficiency improvements in our ability to model physical phenomena described by low-dimensional (<200D) ODEs.

astro-ph.IM↗

Deus ex $H_0$ -- Is evidence for dynamical dark energy conditioned on early cosmology?

Some free-form reconstructions of the dark energy equation of state suggest that dynamical dark energy is the only explanation for the observed data. In this letter we argue that early Universe solutions to the Hubble tension (around or before recombination) generically cause the evidence for this claim to strongly reduce, establishing a tight connection between the early and late cosmology. In particular, the level of evidence for dynamical dark energy depends on the parameters $H_0 r_\mathrm{d}$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m}$ and early universe solutions typically push towards higher values of $H_0 r_\mathrm{d}$ and lower values of $Ω_\mathrm{m}$, where such evidence is reduced.

astro-ph.CO↗

The $H_0$ World Cup. I. Summary of the baseline group stage results

The Hubble tension has reached a nominal significance above $7σ$, while new high-precision measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) sharpen the test of proposed solutions. Using a common framework, we compare fourteen representative alternatives to the standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter ($Λ$CDM) model in light of up-to-date CMB, BAO and supernovae data to gauge their ability to resolve the tension. The models span late-time modifications, modified recombination, and exotic pre-recombination expansion histories driven by additional radiation or a localized dark energy injection. We evaluate each proposal with complementary frequentist and Bayesian measures of the residual calibration tension and of the improvement in the joint fit. Both approaches identify the same broad hierarchy. Early dark energy and early modified gravity models perform best, shifting the $H_0$ inference without local measurement priors toward $70\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ and reducing the residual discrepancy with SH0ES to approximately $2.5-3.6σ$, depending on the model and statistic, while receiving strong support over $Λ$CDM in the combined fit. Varying the electron mass at recombination yields an intermediate improvement, whereas the enhanced-radiation and late-time scenarios do not improve over $Λ$CDM. This Letter summarizes the group stage of the competition; in a companion paper (Paper II) we present the results of an exhaustive set of analyses and assess their robustness to variations in modeling assumptions and datasets.

astro-ph.CO↗

The $H_0$ world cup. II. A comprehensive competition between proposed Hubble tension solutions

Cosmology stands at a crossroads. The Hubble tension has reached a nominal significance above $7σ$, while analyses combining DESI BAO and Type Ia supernova data show emerging hints of departures from $Λ$CDM. Meanwhile, high-precision CMB measurements from ACT and SPT enable a timely and more stringent reassessment of proposed solutions to the tension. In this paper, we revisit the $H_0$ Olympics, a systematic contest comparing proposed alternatives to $Λ$CDM using common datasets, likelihoods, and statistical criteria. In this updated edition, the $H_0$ World Cup, we subject fourteen representative solutions to a common analysis of current CMB, BAO, and SN data. The contenders span four broad mechanisms: late-time modifications of the expansion history, modified recombination, additional pre-recombination radiation, and early non-radiative energy injection. Relative to the original analysis, the present competition includes models and mechanisms proposed in the intervening years and evaluates all contenders using both Bayesian and Frequentist tests of tension and model performance, letting the neutrino mass sum vary. We further test if late-time extensions through curvature or the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) dark energy parametrization can aid the success of the models. Finally, we subject the leading contenders to dedicated robustness tests involving alternative CMB likelihoods and multipole cuts, supernova samples, large-scale-structure information, and big-bang nucleosynthesis constraints. This framework assesses both the ability of each mechanism to ease the Hubble tension and the robustness of our conclusions to datasets and analysis choices.

astro-ph.CO↗

The BAO scale -- how standard is the standard ruler?

Analyses of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) commonly employ template-based methods to extract compressed parameters from the clustering of dark-matter tracers, which are then interpreted in terms of ratios of the sound-horizon scale and cosmological distances relative to a fiducial cosmology. A small mismatch between the sound-horizon scale derived from the standard analytic formulation (integral over the sound speed) and the effective scale imprinted in clustered matter can, however, introduce a systematic bias in cosmological inference. We extend previous work to a broader class of cosmological models, quantify this bias for surveys with DESI-like precision, and propose strategies to correct for the effect. We find that the induced bias becomes a significant fraction of the statistical uncertainty for deviations from the fiducial cosmology, at the level of $|ΔΩ_m| = 0.03$ and $|ΔN_\mathrm{eff}| = 0.3$, and for very precise data corresponding to a forecasted Year-5 DESI survey (or other stage IV dark energy galaxy surveys). We present several ways to correct for this effect, suitable for a variety of applications. We therefore recommend that analyses exploring such parameter regimes either apply the proposed corrections or include an appropriate systematic error budget.

astro-ph.CO↗

The 2024 BBN baryon abundance update

We revisit the state of the light element abundances from big bang nucleosynthesis in early 2024 with particular focus on the derived baryon abundance. We find that the largest differences between the final baryon abundances are typically driven by the assumed Deuterium burning rates, characterized in this work by the underlying code. The rates from theoretical ab-initio calculations favor smaller baryon abundances, while experimentally-determined rates prefer higher abundances. Through robust marginalization over a wide range of nuclear rates, the recently released $\mathtt{PRyMordial}$ code allows for a conservative estimate of the baryon abundance at $Ω_b h^2 = 0.02218 \pm 0.00055$ (using PDG-recommended light element abundances) in $Λ$CDM and $Ω_b h^2 = 0.02196 \pm 0.00063$ when additional ultra-relativistic relics are considered ($Λ$CDM + $N_\mathrm{eff}$). These additional relics themselves are constrained to $ΔN_\mathrm{eff} = -0.14 \pm 0.21$ by light element abundances alone.

astro-ph.CO↗

Smooth sailing or ragged climb? -- Increasing the robustness of power spectrum de-wiggling and ShapeFit parameter compression

The baryonic features in the galaxy power spectrum offer tight, time-resolved constraints on the expansion history of the Universe but complicate the measurement of the broadband shape of the power spectrum, which also contains precious cosmological information. In the context of ShapeFit, the broadband information is compressed into a single parameter, the slope of the power spectrum at the pivot scale, $m$, is sensitive to matter-radiation equality and the baryonic suppression. To calculate this parameter, two steps are necessary: 1) smoothing the power spectrum to remove the baryonic oscillations and 2) calculating the derivative of the power spectrum ratio at the pivot scale. In this work we compare thirteen methods designed to separate the broadband and oscillating components and examine their performance. The systematic uncertainty between different de-wiggling procedures is at most $2$%, depending on the scale. For the obtained slope, we show that the de-wiggling procedures impart large 50% differences, but as long as the theory and data pipelines are consistent, this is of no concern for cosmological inference given the precision of existing and ongoing surveys. However, it still motivates the search for more robust ways of extracting the slope. We show that post-processing the power spectrum ratio before taking the derivative makes the slope values far more robust. We further investigate eleven ways of extracting the slope and highlight the two most successful ones. We derive a systematic uncertainty on the slope $m$ of $σ_{m,\mathrm{syst}} = 0.023 |m| + 0.001$ by studying the behavior of the slopes in different cosmologies and the impact in cosmological inference. In cosmologies with a feature in the matter-power spectrum, such as in the early dark energy cosmologies, this systematic uncertainty estimate does not necessarily hold, and further investigation is required.

astro-ph.CO↗

The Local Distance Network: a community consensus report on the measurement of the Hubble constant at 1% precision

The direct, empirical determination of the local value of the Hubble constant (H0) has markedly advanced thanks to improved instrumentation, measurement techniques, and distance estimators. However, combining determinations from different estimators is non-trivial, due to correlated calibrations and different analysis methodologies. Using covariance weighting and leveraging the broad and comprehensive community of experts, we constructed a rigorous and transparent Distance Network (DN) to find a consensus value and uncertainty for the local H0. All critically reviewed the available data sets, spanning parallaxes, detached eclipsing binaries, masers, Cepheids, the TRGB, Miras, JAGB stars, SN Ia, Surface Brightness Fluctuations, SN II, the Fundamental Plane, and Tully-Fisher relations and voted for indicators to define a `baseline' DN and others to assess robustness and sensitivity of the results. We provide open-source software and data products to support full transparency and future extensions of this effort. Our conclusions: 1) Local H0 is robustly determined, with first-rank indicators internally consistent within their uncertainties; 2) A covariance-weighted combination yields an uncertainty of 1.1% (baseline) or 0.9% (all estimators); 3) The contribution from SNe Ia is consistent across four current compilations of optical magnitudes or using NIR-only magnitudes; 4) Removing either Cepheids or TRGB has minimal effect; 5) Replacing SNe Ia with galaxy-based indicators changes H0 by less than 0.1 km/s/Mpc, while doubling its uncertainty; 6) The baseline result is H0=73.50+/-0.81 km/s/Mpc. Compared to early Universe results, our result differs by 7.1sigma from flat ΛCDM with Planck+SPT+ACT and 5.0 sigma with BBN+BAO (DESI2). A networked approach is invaluable for enabling further progress in accuracy and precision without overreliance on any single method, sample or group.

astro-ph.CO↗

The CosmoVerse White Paper: Addressing observational tensions in cosmology with systematics and fundamental physics

The standard model of cosmology has provided a good phenomenological description of a wide range of observations both at astrophysical and cosmological scales for several decades. This concordance model is constructed by a universal cosmological constant and supported by a matter sector described by the standard model of particle physics and a cold dark matter contribution, as well as very early-time inflationary physics, and underpinned by gravitation through general relativity. There have always been open questions about the soundness of the foundations of the standard model. However, recent years have shown that there may also be questions from the observational sector with the emergence of differences between certain cosmological probes. In this White Paper, we identify the key objectives that need to be addressed over the coming decade together with the core science projects that aim to meet these challenges. These discordances primarily rest on the divergence in the measurement of core cosmological parameters with varying levels of statistical confidence. These possible statistical tensions may be partially accounted for by systematics in various measurements or cosmological probes but there is also a growing indication of potential new physics beyond the standard model. After reviewing the principal probes used in the measurement of cosmological parameters, as well as potential systematics, we discuss the most promising array of potential new physics that may be observable in upcoming surveys. We also discuss the growing set of novel data analysis approaches that go beyond traditional methods to test physical models. [Abridged]

astro-ph.CO↗

Emulating the Lyman-Alpha forest 1D power spectrum from cosmological simulations: New models and constraints from the eBOSS measurement

We present the Lyssa suite of high-resolution cosmological simulations of the Lyman-$α$ forest designed for cosmological analyses. These 18 simulations have been run using the Nyx code with $4096^3$ hydrodynamical cells in a 120 Mpc ($\sim$ 81Mpc/h) comoving box and individually provide sub-percent level convergence of the Lyman-$α$ forest 1d flux power spectrum. We build a Gaussian process emulator for the Lyssa simulations in the lym1d likelihood framework to interpolate the power spectrum at arbitrary parameter values. We validate this emulator based on leave-one-out tests and based on the parameter constraints for simulations outside of the training set. We also perform comparisons with a previous emulator, showing a percent level accuracy and a good recovery of the expected cosmological parameters. Using this emulator we derive constraints on the linear matter power spectrum amplitude and slope parameters $A_{\mathrm{Ly}α}$ and $n_{\mathrm{Ly}α}$. While the best-fit Planck $Λ$CDM model has $A_{\mathrm{Ly}α}=8.79$ and $n_{\mathrm{Ly}α}=-2.363$, from DR14 eBOSS data we find that $A_{\mathrm{Ly}α}<7.6$ (95\% CI) and $n_{\mathrm{Ly}α}=-2.369 \pm 0.008$. The low value of $A_{\mathrm{Ly}α}$, in tension with Planck, is driven by the correlation of this parameter with the mean transmission of the Lyman-$α$ forest. This tension disappears when imposing a well-motivated external prior on this mean transmission, in which case we find $A_{\mathrm{Ly}α}=9.8\pm1.1$ in accordance with Planck.

astro-ph.CO↗

Predictions for new physics in the CMB damping tail

Ever since the Planck satellite measured the the cosmic microwave background (CMB) down to arcminute angular scales, the mismatch between the CMB-inferred value of the Hubble constant and the value inferred from the distance ladder (i.e., the Hubble tension) has been a growing concern and is currently at the $\sim 6 σ$ level. There are a handful of proposed mechanisms operating in the early universe which have shown some promise in resolving the Hubble tension. These mechanisms are expected to leave a measurable impact on the smallest scale CMB anisotropy, deep in the damping tail. Using current CMB data, baryonic acoustic oscillation data, and the luminosities of Type Ia supernovae as a baseline, we compute the predicted small-scale CMB power spectra for a characteristic set of these models. We find that near-future CMB data should be able to distinguish some but not all of the investigated models from the core cosmological model, $Λ$CDM.

astro-ph.CO↗

The mass effect -- Variations of the electron mass and their impact on cosmology

We summarize and explain the current status of time variations of the electron mass in cosmology, showing that such variations allow for significant easing of the Hubble tension, from the current $\sim5σ$ significance, down to between $3.4σ$ and $1.0σ$ significance, depending on the precise model and data. Electron mass variations are preferred by Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data in combination with the latest results on baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) and type Ia supernovae at a level of significance between $2σ$ and $3.6σ$ depending on the model and the data. This preference for a model involving an electron mass variation is neither tightly constrained from light element abundances generated during big bang nucleosynthesis nor from post-recombination observations using quasars and atomic clocks, though future data is expected to give strong evidence in favor of or against this model.

astro-ph.CO↗

A speed limit on tachyon fields from cosmological and fine-structure data

The rolling tachyon is a non-canonical scalar field model well motivated in string theory which naturally predicts variations of the fine-structure constant. Such variations can in principle lead to interesting observable consequences, but they can also lead to extremely tight constraints on these kinds of models. In this work we subject the rolling tachyon model evolving in a variety of potentials to current data and show that most cosmologically interesting evolutions are already strongly excluded. We find $|1+w_0| < 10^{-3}$ from cosmological data and $|1+w_0| < 10^{-9}$ from fine-structure data, leaving the rolling tachyon to either play a role almost entirely equivalent to a cosmological constant or that of a test field. We also find that in most of the allowed parameter space the field evolves very slowly, allowing its evolution to be approximated as an equivalent canonical scalar field.

gr-qc↗

Incompatibility of fine-structure constant variations at recombination with local observations

Some attempts of easing the critical Hubble tension present in modern cosmology have resorted to using variations of fundamental constants, such as the fine-structure constant, at the time of recombination. In this article we demonstrate that there are critical hurdles to construct such viable models using scalar fields, due to the striking precision of local constraints on the fine-structure constant stability. These hurdles demonstrate that in single-field models one has to extremely fine-tune the shape of the potential and/or the initial conditions. Indeed, for single field models in a potential that is not fine-tuned we can put a generic bound at recombination of $Δα/α< 5\cdot 10^{-4}$ (95\% CL).

astro-ph.CO↗

Cosmological probes of Dark Radiation from Neutrino Mixing

Models of stepped dark radiation have recently been found to have an important impact on the anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background, aiding in easing the Hubble tension. In this work, we study models with a sector of dark radiation with a step in its abundance, which thermalizes after big bang nucleosynthesis by mixing with the standard model neutrinos. For this, we extend an earlier work which has focused on the background evolution only until the dark sector thermalizes by deriving the full background and perturbation equations of the model and implementing them in an Einstein-Boltzmann solving code. We expound on the behavior of this model, discussing the wide range of parameters that result in interesting and viable cosmologies that dynamically generate dark radiation during a range of epochs. We find that for the strongly self-coupled regime, there is no large cosmological impact for a tight prior on the mass, whereas larger mass ranges allow a smooth interpolation between a behavior close to the $Λ$CDM cosmological standard model and close to an additional component of strongly self-interacting dark radiation. In the weakly self-coupled regime we find that we can accommodate a parameter space relevant for the neutrino anomalies as well as one relevant to easing the Hubble tension.

astro-ph.CO↗

The weak, the strong and the ugly -- A comparative analysis of interacting stepped dark radiation

Models which address both the Hubble and $S_8$ tensions with the same mechanism generically cause a pre-recombination suppression of the small scale matter power spectrum. Here we focus on two such models. Both models introduce a self-interacting dark radiation fluid scattering with dark matter, which has a step in its abundance around some transition redshift. In one model, the interaction is weak and with all of the dark matter whereas in the other it is strong but with only a fraction of the dark matter. The weakly interacting case is able to address both tensions simultaneously and provide a good fit to a the Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the Pantheon Type Ia supernovae, and a combination of low and high redshift baryon acoustic oscillation data, whereas the strongly interacting model cannot significantly ease both tensions simultaneously. The addition of high-resolution cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements (ACT DR4 and SPT-3G) slightly limits both model's ability to address the Hubble tension. The use of the effective field theory of large-scale structures analysis of BOSS DR12 LRG and eBOSS DR16 QSO data additionally limits their ability to address the $S_8$ tension. We explore how these models respond to these data sets in detail in order to draw general conclusions about what is required for a mechanism to address both tensions. We find that in order to fit the CMB data the time dependence of the suppression of the matter power spectrum plays a central role.

astro-ph.CO↗

A tale of many $H_0$

The Hubble parameter $H_0$, is not a univocally-defined quantity: it relates redshifts to distances in the near Universe, but is also a key parameter of the $Λ$CDM standard cosmological model. As such, $H_0$ affects several physical processes at different cosmic epochs, and multiple observables. We have counted more than a dozen $H_0$'s which are expected to agree if a) there are no significant systematics in the data and their interpretation and b) the adopted cosmological model is correct. With few exceptions (proverbially confirming the rule) these determinations do not agree at high statistical significance; their values cluster around two camps: the low (68 km/s/Mpc) and high (73 km/s/Mpc) camp. It appears to be a matter of anchors: the shape of the Universe expansion history agrees with the model, it is the normalizations that disagree. Beyond systematics in the data/analysis, if the model is incorrect there are only two viable ways to "fix" it: by changing the early time ($z\gtrsim 1100$) physics and thus the early time normalization, or by a global modification, possibly touching the model's fundamental assumptions (e.g., homogeneity, isotropy, gravity). None of these three options has the consensus of the community. The research community has been actively looking for deviations from $Λ$CDM for two decades; the one we might have found makes us wish we could put the genie back in the bottle.

astro-ph.CO↗

News from the Swampland -- Constraining string theory with astrophysics and cosmology

Our current best guess for a unified theory of gravitation and quantum field theory (string theory) generically predicts a set of requirements for a consistently quantized theory, the Swampland criteria. Refined versions of these criteria have recently been shown to be in mild tension with cosmological observations. We summarize the status of the current impact of and constraints on the Swampland conjectures from cosmology, and subject a variety of dark energy quintessence models to recently released cosmological datasets. We find that instead of tightening the tension, the new data allows for slightly more freedom in the Swampland criteria. We further demonstrate that if there is no theoretical argument made to prevent interactions of the moduli fields with the electromagnetic sector, a novel fine-tuning argument arises from the extremely tight current constraints on such interactions. Finally, we conclude with a cautionary tale on model-independent reconstructions of the Swampland criteria from expansion rate data.

astro-ph.CO↗