arXiv subjects

Ningning Tao

Publications and source records attributed to Ningning Tao.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Regime Shift in Atlantic Surface Currents Reveals a Step-like Decline of the Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynamical response to climate variability remains poorly understood. Here we identify a previously unrecognized basin scale phase of Atlantic surface circulation, termed the Atlantic Convergence Divergence Mode (ACDM), characterized by a convergence divergence pattern in the North Atlantic and coherent meridional flows in the South Atlantic. We show that the ACDM experienced a pronounced regime shift in 2009, marked by weakened vertical water exchange and reduced meridional transport. This transition closely coincides with direct RAPID MOCHA AMOC observations and is driven by AMOC modulated multicale forcing: a low frequency oceanic thermal reorganization that preconditions the system, and episodic atmospheric shocks that trigger the shift. By identifying the ACDM variability as a sensitive and physically grounded proxy for interannual AMOC fluctuations, we reveal that the observed 2009 shift signifies a nonlinear, step like weakening of AMOC that triggered a fundamental basin scale reorganization of Atlantic surface currents. Our results offer a dynamical explanation for the AMOC's recent decline and demonstrate its inherently nonlinear nature, highlighting the need to account for step like transitions in assessing its stability and future evolution.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Efficient Generative AI Boosts Probabilistic Forecasting of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are key sources of subseasonal predictability and major drivers of extreme weather in winter. Accurate and efficient probabilistic forecasting of these events remains a persistent challenge for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems due to computational bottlenecks and limitations in physical representation. While data-driven forecasting is rapidly evolving, its application to the complex, three-dimensional dynamics of SSWs remains underexplored. Here, we bridge this gap by developing a Flow Matching-based generative AI model (FM-Cast) for efficient and skillful probabilistic forecasting of the spatiotemporal evolution of stratospheric circulation in winter. Evaluated across 18 major SSW events (1998-2024), FM-Cast successfully forecasts the onset, intensity, and 3D morphology of the polar vortex up to 15 days in advance for most cases. Notably, it achieves long-range probabilistic forecast skill comparable to or exceeding leading operational NWP systems (ECMWF and CMA) while generating a 30-day forecast with 50-member ensemble, in just two minutes on a consumer GPU. Furthermore, using idealized "perfect troposphere" experiments, we uncover distinct predictability regimes: events driven by continuous wave forcing versus those governed by an initial trigger and subsequent stratospheric dynamical memory. This work establishes a computationally efficient paradigm for probabilistic stratospheric forecasting that simultaneously deepens our physical understanding of atmosphere-climate dynamics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A Revisit of Large-Scale Patterns in Middle Stratospheric Circulation Variations

Variations in stratospheric atmospheric circulation significantly influence tropospheric weather and climate, and understanding these variations can guide stratospheric aircraft development and operations. Despite a century of progress, large-scale patterns in stratospheric circulation remain poorly understood due to the stratosphere's complex nature. To address this, we applied the eigen microstate approach (EMA) to analyze zonal wind from 70-10 hPa using ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980-2022. We focused on the three leading modes, corresponding to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratospheric circulation in the Arctic and Antarctic. After removing high-frequency components, we observed a significant 11-year cycle in the Antarctic stratospheric circulation mode, possibly linked to the solar cycle. In contrast, the Arctic mode showed a 5-6-year cycle without 11-year periodicity. This difference likely arises from the seasonal timing of polar vortex breakdowns: the Antarctic vortex persists into late spring and summer, making it more sensitive to solar radiation, while the Arctic vortex peaks in winter and early spring. The fourth mode showed features of a Southern Hemisphere dipole and was significantly correlated with the Antarctic mode, leading it by about two months. Finally, we developed a linear prediction model that demonstrated predictive skill for the Antarctic polar vortex.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Data driven modeling for self-similar dynamics

Multiscale modeling of complex systems is crucial for understanding their intricacies. Data-driven multiscale modeling has emerged as a promising approach to tackle challenges associated with complex systems. On the other hand, self-similarity is prevalent in complex systems, hinting that large-scale complex systems can be modeled at a reduced cost. In this paper, we introduce a multiscale neural network framework that incorporates self-similarity as prior knowledge, facilitating the modeling of self-similar dynamical systems. For deterministic dynamics, our framework can discern whether the dynamics are self-similar. For uncertain dynamics, it can compare and determine which parameter set is closer to self-similarity. The framework allows us to extract scale-invariant kernels from the dynamics for modeling at any scale. Moreover, our method can identify the power law exponents in self-similar systems. Preliminary tests on the Ising model yielded critical exponents consistent with theoretical expectations, providing valuable insights for addressing critical phase transitions in non-equilibrium systems.

cs.LG↗