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Nir Guttman

Publications and source records attributed to Nir Guttman.

14 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Reconstructing Core-Collapse Supernova Gravitational-Wave Signals with Transdimensional Bayesian Inference

Core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) are promising future sources of gravitational waves for current and next-generation observatories. Reconstructing CCSN gravitational-wave signals is challenging as they contain stochastic elements, have multiple complex features, and cover a wide frequency band. The stochasticity of the signal in particular motivates the need for morphology-independent reconstruction techniques which, once observed, will enable us to infer properties of the newly born proto-neutron star, the rotation, and the unknown CCSN explosion mechanism. In this work, we investigate the reconstruction of gravitational-wave signals from CCSNe using the transdimensional Bayesian inference framework tBilby. We demonstrate the method using simulated signals in synthetic Advanced LIGO detector noise at a range of signal-to-noise ratios. We reconstruct the signals using two types of wavelets: sine Gaussians and chirplets. We calculate overlaps between injected and reconstructed signals of up to 85%. We find that even when reconstruction overlap values are low, enough of the time-frequency structure of the dominant mode is captured to still make statements about the size of the evolving proto-neutron star. These capabilities establish tBilby as a powerful tool for gravitational-wave astronomy with burst sources.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Revealing Four Subpopulations of Binary Black-Hole Mergers with the Fifth Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog

Gravitational-wave data are beginning to reveal a structured landscape of black-hole masses and spins, suggesting multiple formation processes are now being resolved observationally. We analyze data from LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA's (LVK's) fifth Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog and find that the population is naturally described by four distinct subpopulations. The dominant component, contributing $\simeq70\%$ of the astrophysical merger rate, is characterised by a low-mass population centred near $10M_\odot$ and is separated from heavier systems by a depletion near $14M_\odot$. This component may be associated with black holes formed from failed supernovae. Above this depletion, we find two intermediate-mass components: an unequal-mass branch pairing the lower-mass, $\simeq10M_\odot$ black hole with a heavier black hole, perhaps associated with isolated-binary/stable-mass-transfer formation, and a nearly equal-mass branch peaking near $30$--$35M_\odot$ whose low spins and mass distribution favour first-generation systems possibly born in dense stellar environments. A fourth, percent-level component extends to higher masses and is characterized by a broad mass-ratio distribution and large spin magnitudes, consistent with a hierarchical-merger population. Our four-component model is overwhelmingly preferred over a standard LVK population model by a natural-log Bayes factor of $\ln(\mathrm{BF}) = 19.2$. Our work observationally unveils a new subpopulation of black-hole mergers utilising a new hybrid data-driven and parametric-model discovery method, bringing us one step closer to understanding stellar-mass black-hole archaeology.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Licence to Bin: Accurate and Scalable Inference for Binary Neutron Stars in Next-Generation Gravitational-Wave Detectors

Next-generation gravitational-wave observatories will observe binary neutron-star mergers with much higher signal-to-noise ratios, over much longer durations and across broader frequency bands than current detectors. These long-duration signals present a major computational challenge for Bayesian parameter estimation. Reduced-order quadrature is a promising approach for accelerating inference, but in this regime its standard construction encounters severe memory and accuracy limitations. We present a practical reduced-order quadrature construction for long binary neutron-star signals with time-dependent detector response and full effects of the observatories' free-spectral range. Our approach combines improved adaptive frequency sampling, disk-backed streaming, and subbanded reduced-order quadrature construction, enabling efficient and accurate reduced-order models for signals that were previously intractable. We demonstrate for the first time reduced-order Bayesian inference on an approximately 2 h binary neutron-star signal extending down to 5 Hz and with signal-to-noise ratio 2090. We show the resulting reduced-order quadrature remains sufficiently accurate for practical inference. The full analysis is carried out in about 48 h using 128 CPU cores. We also find that, when time-dependent detector-response effects are included, a single Cosmic Explorer detector can localize such a signal to a 90% credible sky area of approximately $41~\mathrm{deg}^2$, with important implications for multimessenger astronomy and cosmology. These results demonstrate that reduced-order methods can make next-generation binary neutron-star inference computationally feasible.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

A transdimensional sampling framework for pulsar timing noise modelling

A careful characterisation of the noise processes in pulsar timing data is a prerequisite for pulsar timing array experiments. While single-pulsar noise analyses are crucial for both gravitational-wave searches and astrophysical studies, they are often computationally intensive and rely on running and comparing multiple fixed noise models. We present tPTABilby, a transdimensional Bayesian inference framework for single-pulsar noise analysis built on the Bilby library. The method flexibly models a wide range of noise processes like radiometer noise, pulse-phase jitter, intrinsic red noise, dispersion measure variations, and chromatic interstellar medium effects. By employing transdimensional sampling, tPTABilby simultaneously infers the number and type of active noise sources, providing a unified treatment of model selection and parameter estimation. We validate the methodology through simulations with known injected noise models, demonstrating accurate recovery of model probabilities and calibrated posterior distributions. We then apply this approach to a single pulsar, PSR J1713+0747, from a MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array (MPTA) dataset, analysing the data with both tPTABilby and Enterprise, and subsequently compare the results with existing MPTA analyses through posterior predictive checks of the inferred noise spectra. Our results highlight the flexibility of transdimensional approaches to single-pulsar noise analysis, demonstrating consistency with standard fixed-model methods while providing a more statistically robust framework, and present tPTABilby as a simple and reproducible approach for PTA inference.

astro-ph.IM↗
arXiv2025

Trends in the Population of Binary Black Holes Following the Fourth Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog: a Data-Driven Analysis

Current population models of binary black hole distributions are difficult to interpret because standard population inferences hinge on modeling choices, which can mask or mimic real structure. The maximum population likelihood ``$\pistroke$ formalism'' provides a means to investigate and interpret features in the distribution of binary black holes using only data -- without specifying a population model. It tells us if features inferred from current population models are truly present in the data or if they arise from model misspecification. It also provides guidance for developing new models by highlighting previously unnoticed features. In this study, we utilize the $\pistroke$ formalism to examine the binary black hole population in the LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA (LVK) fourth Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-4). Our analysis supports the existence of a gap around $45\,M_\odot$ in the secondary black hole mass distribution and identifies a widening in the distribution of the effective inspiral spin parameter $\chi_\text{eff}$ near this mass as recently reported by Tong et al. (2025). Similar to earlier studies, we find support for an anti-correlation between $\chi_\text{eff}$ and mass ratio. However, we argue that this may be a spurious correlation arising from misspecification of the joint distribution of black hole masses. Furthermore, we identify support for dimensionless black hole spin magnitudes at approximately $\chi \approx 0.2$ and $\chi\approx0.7$. The data support the existence of a correlation between the spin magnitudes $\chi_1$ and $\chi_2$, though subsequent study is required to determine if this feature is statistically significant. The accompanying data release includes $\pistroke$ samples, which can be used to compare theoretical predictions to LVK data and to assess assumptions in parameterised models.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Evidence of the pair instability gap from black hole masses

Stellar theory predicts a forbidden range of black-hole masses between ${\sim}50$--$130\,M_\odot$ due to pair-instability supernovae, but evidence for such a gap in the mass distribution from gravitational-wave astronomy has proved elusive. Early hints of a cutoff in black-hole masses at ${\sim} 45\,M_\odot$ disappeared with the subsequent discovery of more massive binary black holes. Here, we report evidence of the pair-instability gap in LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA's fourth gravitational wave transient catalog (GWTC-4), with a lower boundary of $44_{-4}^{+5} M_\odot$ (90\% credibility). While the gap is not present in the distribution of \textit{primary} masses $m_1$ (the bigger of the two black holes in a binary system), it appears unambiguously in the distribution of \textit{secondary} masses $m_2$, where $m_2 \leq m_1$. The location of the gap lines up well with a previously identified transition in the binary black-hole spin distribution; binaries with primary components in the gap tend to spin more rapidly than those below the gap. We interpret these findings as evidence for a subpopulation of hierarchical mergers: binaries where the primary component is the product of a previous black-hole merger and thus populates the gap. Our measurement of the location of the pair-instability gap constrains the $S$-factor for $^{12}\rm{C}(\alpha,\gamma)^{16}\rm{O}$ at 300keV to $260_{-108}^{+190}$ keV barns.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Do both black holes spin in merging binaries? Evidence from GWTC-4 and astrophysical implications

Angular momentum transport in high-mass stars is commonly modeled by extrapolating the behavior of better-observed low-mass stars. According to the conventional picture, the cores of most black hole progenitors lose almost all of their angular momentum when their outer layers are ejected before core collapse. Accordingly, most black holes are expected to be born with dimensionless spin magnitudes of $\chi \lesssim 0.01$, even if some black holes are born with non-negligible spin due to tidal interactions in a progenitor binary. One might therefore expect to find a large fraction of $\chi \lesssim 0.01$ black holes in merging binary black hole (BBH) systems. We find that the conventional picture of angular momentum transport is in tension with data from LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA's fourth gravitational-wave transient catalog. We find no support for a sub-population of BBH systems with $\chi \lesssim 0.01$. Neither do we find support for a sub-population with only one spinning black hole as expected for tidal spin-up scenarios. Instead, we find evidence for two subpopulations in which both black holes have non-negligible spin. Approximately 84% of BBH systems contain two black holes with modest spins $\chi \approx 0.1$ and approximately 16% contain two black holes with large spins $\chi \approx 0.8$. These estimates come from our best-fit model, which is favored with natural log Bayes factors $\ln B \gtrsim 3$ over models that require a sub-population of $\chi \lesssim 0.01$ black holes, and models that do not contain multiple spin sub-populations. These results are difficult to reconcile with our current understanding of angular momentum transport.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

A Gaussian process framework for testing general relativity with gravitational waves

Gravitational-wave astronomy provides a promising avenue for the discovery of new physics beyond general relativity as it probes extreme curvature and ultra-relativistic dynamics. However, in the absence of a compelling alternative to general relativity, it is difficult to carry out an analysis that allows for a wide range of deviations. To that end, we introduce a Gaussian process framework to search for deviations from general relativity in gravitational-wave signals from binary black hole mergers with minimal assumptions. We employ a kernel that enforces our prior beliefs that - if gravitational waveforms deviate from the predictions of general relativity - the deviation is likely to be localised in time near the merger with some characteristic frequency. We demonstrate this formalism with simulated data and apply it to events from Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 3. We find no evidence for a deviation from general relativity. We limit the fractional deviation in gravitational-wave strain to as low as 7% (90% credibility) of the strain of GW190701_203306.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2025

Modelling noise in gravitational-wave observatories with transdimensional models

Modelling noise in gravitational-wave observatories is crucial for accurately inferring the properties of gravitational-wave sources. We introduce a transdimensional Bayesian approach to characterise the noise in ground-based gravitational-wave observatories using the Bayesian inference software $\texttt{Bilby}$. The algorithm models broadband noise with a combination of power laws; narrowband features with Lorentzians; and shapelets to capture any additional features in the data. We show that our noise model provides a significantly improved fit of the LIGO and Virgo noise amplitude spectral densities compared to currently available noise fits obtained with on-source data segments. We perform astrophysical inference on well-known events in the third Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog using our noise model and observe shifts of up to $7\%$ in the $90\%$ boundaries of credible intervals for some parameters. We discuss plans to deploy this framework systematically for gravitational-wave inference along with possible areas of improvement.

astro-ph.IM↗
arXiv2024

Possible Causes of False General Relativity Violations in Gravitational Wave Observations

General relativity (GR) has proven to be a highly successful theory of gravity since its inception. The theory has thrivingly passed numerous experimental tests, predominantly in weak gravity, low relative speeds, and linear regimes, but also in the strong-field and very low-speed regimes with binary pulsars. Observable gravitational waves (GWs) originate from regions of spacetime where gravity is extremely strong, making them a unique tool for testing GR, in previously inaccessible regions of large curvature, relativistic speeds, and strong gravity. Since their first detection, GWs have been extensively used to test GR, but no deviations have been found so far. Given GR's tremendous success in explaining current astronomical observations and laboratory experiments, accepting any deviation from it requires a very high level of statistical confidence and consistency of the deviation across GW sources. In this paper, we compile a comprehensive list of potential causes that can lead to a false identification of a GR violation in standard tests of GR on data from current and future ground-based GW detectors. These causes include detector noise, signal overlaps, gaps in the data, detector calibration, source model inaccuracy, missing physics in the source and in the underlying environment model, source misidentification, and mismodeling of the astrophysical population. We also provide a rough estimate of when each of these causes will become important for tests of GR for different detector sensitivities. We argue that each of these causes should be thoroughly investigated, quantified, and ruled out before claiming a GR violation in GW observations.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2024

Transdimensional inference for gravitational-wave astronomy with Bilby

It has become increasingly useful to answer questions in gravitational-wave astronomy using transdimensional models where the number of free parameters can be varied depending on the complexity required to fit the data. Given the growing interest in transdimensional inference, we introduce a new package for the Bayesian inference Library (Bilby) called tBilby. The tBilby package allows users to set up transdimensional inference calculations using the existing Bilby architecture with off-the-shelf nested samplers and/or Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Transdimensional models are particularly helpful when we seek to test theoretically uncertain predictions described by phenomenological models. For example, bursts of gravitational waves can be modelled using a superposition of N wavelets where N is itself a free parameter. Short pulses are modelled with small values of N whereas longer, more complicated signals are represented with a large number of wavelets stitched together. Other transdimensional models have found use describing instrumental noise and the population properties of gravitational-wave sources. We provide a few demonstrations of tBilby, including fitting the gravitational-wave signal GW150914 with a superposition of N sine-Gaussian wavelets. We outline our plans to further develop the tbilby code suite for a broader range of transdimensional problems.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2012

Plasma Panel Sensors for Particle and Beam Detection

The plasma panel sensor (PPS) is an inherently digital, high gain, novel variant of micropattern gas detectors inspired by many operational and fabrication principles common to plasma display panels (PDPs). The PPS is comprised of a dense array of small, plasma discharge, gas cells within a hermetically-sealed glass panel, and is assembled from non-reactive, intrinsically radiation-hard materials such as glass substrates, metal electrodes and mostly inert gas mixtures. We are developing the technology to fabricate these devices with very low mass and small thickness, using gas gaps of at least a few hundred micrometers. Our tests with these devices demonstrate a spatial resolution of about 1 mm. We intend to make PPS devices with much smaller cells and the potential for much finer position resolutions. Our PPS tests also show response times of several nanoseconds. We report here our results in detecting betas, cosmic-ray muons, and our first proton beam tests.

physics.ins-det↗
arXiv2012

Development of a plasma panel radiation detector: recent progress and key issues

A radiation detector based on plasma display panel technology, which is the principal component of plasma television displays is presented. Plasma Panel Sensor (PPS) technology is a variant of micropattern gas radiation detectors. The PPS is conceived as an array of sealed plasma discharge gas cells which can be used for fast response (O(5ns) per pixel), high spatial resolution detection (pixel pitch can be less than 100 micrometer) of ionizing and minimum ionizing particles. The PPS is assembled from non-reactive, intrinsically radiation-hard materials: glass substrates, metal electrodes and inert gas mixtures. We report on the PPS development program, including simulations and design and the first laboratory studies which demonstrate the usage of plasma display panels in measurements of cosmic ray muons, as well as the expansion of experimental results on the detection of betas from radioactive sources.

physics.ins-det↗