arXiv subjects

Nir Rosenfeld

Publications and source records attributed to Nir Rosenfeld.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Learning to Suggest Breaks: Sustainable Optimization of Long-Term User Engagement

Optimizing user engagement is a key goal for modern recommendation systems, but blindly pushing users towards increased consumption risks burn-out, churn, or even addictive habits. To promote digital well-being, most platforms now offer a service that periodically prompts users to take breaks. These, however, must be set up manually, and so may be suboptimal for both users and the system. In this paper, we study the role of breaks in recommendation, and propose a framework for learning optimal breaking policies that promote and sustain long-term engagement. Based on the notion that recommendation dynamics are susceptible to both positive and negative feedback, we cast recommendation as a Lotka-Volterra dynamical system, where breaking reduces to a problem of optimal control. We then give an efficient learning algorithm, provide theoretical guarantees, and empirically demonstrate the utility of our approach on semi-synthetic data.

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arXiv2023

Strategic Classification with Graph Neural Networks

Strategic classification studies learning in settings where users can modify their features to obtain favorable predictions. Most current works focus on simple classifiers that trigger independent user responses. Here we examine the implications of learning with more elaborate models that break the independence assumption. Motivated by the idea that applications of strategic classification are often social in nature, we focus on \emph{graph neural networks}, which make use of social relations between users to improve predictions. Using a graph for learning introduces inter-user dependencies in prediction; our key point is that strategic users can exploit these to promote their goals. As we show through analysis and simulation, this can work either against the system -- or for it. Based on this, we propose a differentiable framework for strategically-robust learning of graph-based classifiers. Experiments on several real networked datasets demonstrate the utility of our approach.

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arXiv2022

In the Eye of the Beholder: Robust Prediction with Causal User Modeling

Accurately predicting the relevance of items to users is crucial to the success of many social platforms. Conventional approaches train models on logged historical data; but recommendation systems, media services, and online marketplaces all exhibit a constant influx of new content -- making relevancy a moving target, to which standard predictive models are not robust. In this paper, we propose a learning framework for relevance prediction that is robust to changes in the data distribution. Our key observation is that robustness can be obtained by accounting for how users causally perceive the environment. We model users as boundedly-rational decision makers whose causal beliefs are encoded by a causal graph, and show how minimal information regarding the graph can be used to contend with distributional changes. Experiments in multiple settings demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

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arXiv2022

Generalized Strategic Classification and the Case of Aligned Incentives

Strategic classification studies learning in settings where self-interested users can strategically modify their features to obtain favorable predictive outcomes. A key working assumption, however, is that "favorable" always means "positive"; this may be appropriate in some applications (e.g., loan approval), but reduces to a fairly narrow view of what user interests can be. In this work we argue for a broader perspective on what accounts for strategic user behavior, and propose and study a flexible model of generalized strategic classification. Our generalized model subsumes most current models but includes other novel settings; among these, we identify and target one intriguing sub-class of problems in which the interests of users and the system are aligned. This setting reveals a surprising fact: that standard max-margin losses are ill-suited for strategic inputs. Returning to our fully generalized model, we propose a novel max-margin framework for strategic learning that is practical and effective, and which we analyze theoretically. We conclude with a set of experiments that empirically demonstrate the utility of our approach.

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arXiv2022

Strategic Representation

Humans have come to rely on machines for reducing excessive information to manageable representations. But this reliance can be abused -- strategic machines might craft representations that manipulate their users. How can a user make good choices based on strategic representations? We formalize this as a learning problem, and pursue algorithms for decision-making that are robust to manipulation. In our main setting of interest, the system represents attributes of an item to the user, who then decides whether or not to consume. We model this interaction through the lens of strategic classification (Hardt et al. 2016), reversed: the user, who learns, plays first; and the system, which responds, plays second. The system must respond with representations that reveal `nothing but the truth' but need not reveal the entire truth. Thus, the user faces the problem of learning set functions under strategic subset selection, which presents distinct algorithmic and statistical challenges. Our main result is a learning algorithm that minimizes error despite strategic representations, and our theoretical analysis sheds light on the trade-off between learning effort and susceptibility to manipulation.

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arXiv2021

Learning Representations by Humans, for Humans

When machine predictors can achieve higher performance than the human decision-makers they support, improving the performance of human decision-makers is often conflated with improving machine accuracy. Here we propose a framework to directly support human decision-making, in which the role of machines is to reframe problems rather than to prescribe actions through prediction. Inspired by the success of representation learning in improving performance of machine predictors, our framework learns human-facing representations optimized for human performance. This "Mind Composed with Machine" framework incorporates a human decision-making model directly into the representation learning paradigm and is trained with a novel human-in-the-loop training procedure. We empirically demonstrate the successful application of the framework to various tasks and representational forms.

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arXiv2021

Strategic Classification Made Practical

Strategic classification regards the problem of learning in settings where users can strategically modify their features to improve outcomes. This setting applies broadly and has received much recent attention. But despite its practical significance, work in this space has so far been predominantly theoretical. In this paper we present a learning framework for strategic classification that is practical. Our approach directly minimizes the "strategic" empirical risk, achieved by differentiating through the strategic response of users. This provides flexibility that allows us to extend beyond the original problem formulation and towards more realistic learning scenarios. A series of experiments demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach on various learning settings.

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arXiv2021

Strategic Classification in the Dark

Strategic classification studies the interaction between a classification rule and the strategic agents it governs. Under the assumption that the classifier is known, rational agents respond to it by manipulating their features. However, in many real-life scenarios of high-stake classification (e.g., credit scoring), the classifier is not revealed to the agents, which leads agents to attempt to learn the classifier and game it too. In this paper we generalize the strategic classification model to such scenarios. We define the price of opacity as the difference in prediction error between opaque and transparent strategy-robust classifiers, characterize it, and give a sufficient condition for this price to be strictly positive, in which case transparency is the recommended policy. Our experiments show how Hardt et al.'s robust classifier is affected by keeping agents in the dark.

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arXiv2020

From Predictions to Decisions: Using Lookahead Regularization

Machine learning is a powerful tool for predicting human-related outcomes, from credit scores to heart attack risks. But when deployed, learned models also affect how users act in order to improve outcomes, whether predicted or real. The standard approach to learning is agnostic to induced user actions and provides no guarantees as to the effect of actions. We provide a framework for learning predictors that are both accurate and promote good actions. For this, we introduce look-ahead regularization which, by anticipating user actions, encourages predictive models to also induce actions that improve outcomes. This regularization carefully tailors the uncertainty estimates governing confidence in this improvement to the distribution of model-induced actions. We report the results of experiments on real and synthetic data that show the effectiveness of this approach.

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arXiv2020

A Kernel of Truth: Determining Rumor Veracity on Twitter by Diffusion Pattern Alone

Recent work in the domain of misinformation detection has leveraged rich signals in the text and user identities associated with content on social media. But text can be strategically manipulated and accounts reopened under different aliases, suggesting that these approaches are inherently brittle. In this work, we investigate an alternative modality that is naturally robust: the pattern in which information propagates. Can the veracity of an unverified rumor spreading online be discerned solely on the basis of its pattern of diffusion through the social network? Using graph kernels to extract complex topological information from Twitter cascade structures, we train accurate predictive models that are blind to language, user identities, and time, demonstrating for the first time that such "sanitized" diffusion patterns are highly informative of veracity. Our results indicate that, with proper aggregation, the collective sharing pattern of the crowd may reveal powerful signals of rumor truth or falsehood, even in the early stages of propagation.

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arXiv2020

Predicting Choice with Set-Dependent Aggregation

Providing users with alternatives to choose from is an essential component in many online platforms, making the accurate prediction of choice vital to their success. A renewed interest in learning choice models has led to significant progress in modeling power, but most current methods are either limited in the types of choice behavior they capture, cannot be applied to large-scale data, or both. Here we propose a learning framework for predicting choice that is accurate, versatile, theoretically grounded, and scales well. Our key modeling point is that to account for how humans choose, predictive models must capture certain set-related invariances. Building on recent results in economics, we derive a class of models that can express any behavioral choice pattern, enjoy favorable sample complexity guarantees, and can be efficiently trained end-to-end. Experiments on three large choice datasets demonstrate the utility of our approach.

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arXiv2018

Semi-Supervised Learning with Competitive Infection Models

The goal in semi-supervised learning is to effectively combine labeled and unlabeled data. One way to do this is by encouraging smoothness across edges in a graph whose nodes correspond to input examples. In many graph-based methods, labels can be thought of as propagating over the graph, where the underlying propagation mechanism is based on random walks or on averaging dynamics. While theoretically elegant, these dynamics suffer from several drawbacks which can hurt predictive performance. Our goal in this work is to explore alternative mechanisms for propagating labels. In particular, we propose a method based on dynamic infection processes, where unlabeled nodes can be "infected" with the label of their already infected neighbors. Our algorithm is efficient and scalable, and an analysis of the underlying optimization objective reveals a surprising relation to other Laplacian approaches. We conclude with a thorough set of experiments across multiple benchmarks and various learning settings.

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arXiv2018

Discriminative Learning of Prediction Intervals

In this work we consider the task of constructing prediction intervals in an inductive batch setting. We present a discriminative learning framework which optimizes the expected error rate under a budget constraint on the interval sizes. Most current methods for constructing prediction intervals offer guarantees for a single new test point. Applying these methods to multiple test points can result in a high computational overhead and degraded statistical guarantees. By focusing on expected errors, our method allows for variability in the per-example conditional error rates. As we demonstrate both analytically and empirically, this flexibility can increase the overall accuracy, or alternatively, reduce the average interval size. While the problem we consider is of a regressive flavor, the loss we use is combinatorial. This allows us to provide PAC-style, finite-sample guarantees. Computationally, we show that our original objective is NP-hard, and suggest a tractable convex surrogate. We conclude with a series of experimental evaluations.

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arXiv2016

Predicting Counterfactuals from Large Historical Data and Small Randomized Trials

When a new treatment is considered for use, whether a pharmaceutical drug or a search engine ranking algorithm, a typical question that arises is, will its performance exceed that of the current treatment? The conventional way to answer this counterfactual question is to estimate the effect of the new treatment in comparison to that of the conventional treatment by running a controlled, randomized experiment. While this approach theoretically ensures an unbiased estimator, it suffers from several drawbacks, including the difficulty in finding representative experimental populations as well as the cost of running such trials. Moreover, such trials neglect the huge quantities of available control-condition data which are often completely ignored. In this paper we propose a discriminative framework for estimating the performance of a new treatment given a large dataset of the control condition and data from a small (and possibly unrepresentative) randomized trial comparing new and old treatments. Our objective, which requires minimal assumptions on the treatments, models the relation between the outcomes of the different conditions. This allows us to not only estimate mean effects but also to generate individual predictions for examples outside the randomized sample. We demonstrate the utility of our approach through experiments in three areas: Search engine operation, treatments to diabetes patients, and market value estimation for houses. Our results demonstrate that our approach can reduce the number and size of the currently performed randomized controlled experiments, thus saving significant time, money and effort on the part of practitioners.

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arXiv2016

Optimal Tagging with Markov Chain Optimization

Many information systems use tags and keywords to describe and annotate content. These allow for efficient organization and categorization of items, as well as facilitate relevant search queries. As such, the selected set of tags for an item can have a considerable effect on the volume of traffic that eventually reaches an item. In settings where tags are chosen by an item's creator, who in turn is interested in maximizing traffic, a principled approach for choosing tags can prove valuable. In this paper we introduce the problem of optimal tagging, where the task is to choose a subset of tags for a new item such that the probability of a browsing user reaching that item is maximized. We formulate the problem by modeling traffic using a Markov chain, and asking how transitions in this chain should be modified to maximize traffic into a certain state of interest. The resulting optimization problem involves maximizing a certain function over subsets, under a cardinality constraint. We show that the optimization problem is NP-hard, but nonetheless has a simple (1-1/e)-approximation via a simple greedy algorithm. Furthermore, the structure of the problem allows for an efficient implementation of the greedy step.To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we perform experiments on three tagging datasets, and show that the greedy algorithm outperforms other baselines.

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