arXiv subjects

Niraj Dhital

Publications and source records attributed to Niraj Dhital.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Deterministic and Stochastic Study of the X-ray Emission from the TeV Blazar Mrk~421

We present a comprehensive timing analysis of X-ray data from the {\it XMM-Newton} satellite, examining 50 light curves covering 17 years of observations of the blazar Mrk~421. This work uses classical deterministic and stochastic methods in a novel way, enabling the distinction of temporal scales and offering essential insights through correlations among parameters. Deterministic behaviors are primarily explored through recurrence quantification analysis (RQA), used innovatively by varying the threshold input parameter to examine variability at multiple temporal scales. To investigate behavior across various scales from a stochastic perspective, we apply both autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, with results from ARIMA more tightly related to short scales. Our findings reveal that Mrk~421's X-ray emission is a multifaceted process, driven by both deterministic and stochastic patterns, indicating a complex interplay of physical phenomena. Our study demonstrates that deterministic patterns are more pronounced at small temporal scales, which are disconnected from large scales. On the other hand, stochastic processes with memory propagate from large to small time scales, while noise affects both scales, as indicated by the correlation analysis. These results underscore the importance of advanced methodologies for interpreting astrophysical data, contributing to ongoing discussions in blazar physics by exploring connections between our calculated parameters and established models. The same approach can potentially be applied to other sources, enhancing our general understanding of variability and emission mechanisms in blazars.

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arXiv2025

Constraining Dark Matter Parameters in the Lambda-CDM Framework: A Bayesian Comparison of Planck and DES Constraints

We present a Bayesian analysis of cosmological parameter constraints from early- and late-universe observations, focusing on the matter density parameter ($Ω_m$) and the amplitude of matter fluctuations ($σ_8$) within the $Λ$CDM framework. Using data from the Planck 2018 satellite mission and the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3, we compute theoretical predictions for angular and matter power spectra via Boltzmann solvers and perform Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling using the \texttt{emcee} Python package. Our key contribution is a direct and quantitative comparison of DES and Planck constraints, assessing their consistency using chi-squared analysis and Gaussian tension metrics. We find a statistically significant $6.46σ$ tension in $Ω_m$ and a $2.68σ$ tension in $σ_8$ between the two datasets. These results provide fresh evidence of persistent discrepancies in cosmological parameter estimates and suggest that simple extensions to the $Λ$CDM model may be insufficient to fully reconcile early- and late-time observations, motivating the need for more complex theoretical models or refined treatment of systematics.

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arXiv2025

Search for High Energy Neutrino Sources using IceCube Neutrino Events and \textit{Fermi}/LAT Observations

Context. The sources of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos remain largely unknown. Multi-wavelength observational campaignshave identified a few plausible candidates, but their numbers are limited. Aims. We search for an excess of high-energy neutrino events originating from the directions of blazar sources, compared to the expected background. Additionally, we investigate blazars located within a small angular distance from the arrival directions of high-energy neutrinos, analyzing their characteristics to assess their plausibility as neutrino sources. Methods. We generate random samples of events following the right ascension and the declination distributions of the high-energy neutrino events detected by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory and count the coincidences of generated samples as well as the true observations with the Fermi-LAT blazar sources. Furthermore, we conduct temporal analysis of gamma-ray light curves and spectral analysis of blazar sources with the highest clustering of neutrino events. Results. We find an excess of high-energy neutrino events from the directions of Fermi blazars beyond random coincidence, with a significance of 2.42$σ$. Among the nine blazars which have a maximum number of neutrino events (four) arriving from within 3 degrees from them, 4FGL J1012.3+0629 exhibits the most significant variability around the neutrino detection time. Our study identifies 4FGL J1012.3+0629, 4FGL J2118.0+0019, 4FGL J2226.8+0051 and 4FGL J2227.9+0036 as plausible high-energy neutrino source candidates. The neutrino events IC110726A, IC170308A, IC190415A, IC141210A, IC150102A, IC230524A, IC140114A, IC110807A, and IC200523A likely originate from these sources. Additionally, we find that the spectral index tends to harden when these high-energy neutrino events are detected.

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arXiv2025

Probing X-ray Timing and Spectral Variability in the Blazar PKS 2155-304 Over a Decade of XMM-Newton Observations

Blazars, a class of active galactic nuclei (AGN) powered by supermassive black holes, are known for their remarkable variability across multiple timescales and wavelengths. Despite significant advancements in our understanding of AGN central engines, thanks to both ground- and space-based telescopes, the details of the mechanisms driving this variability remain elusive. The primary objective of this study is to constrain the X-ray variability properties of the TeV blazar PKS 2155-304. We conducted a comprehensive X-ray spectral and timing analysis, focusing on both long-term and intra-day variability (IDV), using data from 22 epochs of {\it XMM-Newton} observations collected over 15 years (2000 to 2014). For the timing analysis, we estimated the fractional variability, variability amplitude, minimum variability timescales, flux distribution, and power spectral density. In the spectral analysis, we fitted the X-ray spectra using power-law, log-parabola, and broken power-law models to determine the best-fitting parameters. We observed moderate IDV in the majority of the light curves. Seven out of the 22 observations showed a clear bimodal flux distribution, indicating the presence of two distinct flux states. Our analysis revealed a variable power spectral slope. Most hardness ratio plots did not show significant variation with flux, except for two observations, where the hardness ratio changed considerably with flux. The fitted X-ray spectra favored the broken power law model for the majority of observations, indicating break in the spectral profiles. The findings of this work shed light on the IDV of blazars, providing insights into the non-thermal jet processes that drive the observed flux variations.

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arXiv2023

Simulation of the isotropic ultra-high energy photons flux in the solar magnetic field and a comparison with observations made by the HAWC and Fermi-LAT observatories

In this contribution we study the possibility of the formation of cosmic ray ensembles (CRE) created by the interaction of ultra-high energy (UHE) photons with the magnetic field of the Sun. The lack of observation of those UHE and the difficulties for their identification given the current methodologies motivates this study. We performed simulations using the PRESHOWER program in order to simulate the expected extensive air showers which might be spatially correlated generated upon entering the Earth's atmosphere. We found characteristic features like very thing and extremely elongates cascades of secondary photons with their corresponding energies spanning the entire cosmic range spectrum. Shower footprints are as large as hundreds of kilometres. An application of this study is the scenario of gamma-ray emission from the vicinity of the Sun as a result of ultra-high energy photon cascading in the solar magnetic field in order to understand recent observations made by the HAWC and Fermi-LAT observatories.

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arXiv2023

Constraining X-ray variability of the blazar 3C 273 using XMM-Newton observations over two decades

Blazars exhibit relentless variability across diverse spatial and temporal frequencies. The study of long- and short-term variability properties observed in the X-ray band provides insights into the inner workings of the central engine. In this work, we present timing and spectral analyses of the blazar 3C 273 using the X-ray observations from the $\textit{XMM-Newton}$ telescope covering the period from 2000 to 2020. The methods of timing analyses include estimation of fractional variability, long- and short-term flux distribution, rms-flux relation, and power spectral density analysis. The spectral analysis include estimating a model independent flux hardness ratio and fitting the observations with multiplicative and additive spectral models such as \textit{power-law}, \textit{log-parabola}, \textit{broken power-law}, and \textit{black body}. The \textit{black body} represents the thermal emission from the accretion disk, while the other models represent the possible energy distributions of the particles emitting synchrotron radiation in the jet. During the past two decades, the source flux changed by of a factor of three, with a considerable fractional variability of 27\%. However, the intraday variation was found to be moderate. Flux distributions of the individual observations were consistent with a normal or log-normal distribution, while the overall flux distribution including entire observations appear to be rather multi-modal and of a complex shape. The spectral analyses indicate that \textit{log-parabola} added with a \textit{black body} gives the best fit for most of the observations. The results indicate a complex scenario in which the variability can be attributed to the intricate interaction between the disk/corona system and the jet.

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arXiv2022

Simulation of the isotropic ultra-high energy photons flux in the solar magnetic field

Both the lack of observation of ultra-high energy (UHE) photons and the limitations of the state-of-the-art methodology being applied for their identification motivate studies on alternative approaches to the relevant simulations and the related observational strategies. One of such new approaches is proposed in this report and it concerns new observables allowing indirect identification of UHE photons through cosmic ray phenomena composed of many spatially correlated extensive air showers or primary cosmic rays observed at one time. The study is based on simulations of interactions of UHE photons with the magnetic field of the Sun using the PRESHOWER program with some essential modifications. One of the expected results of such interactions is a generation of cosmic ray ensembles (CRE) in the form of very thin and very elongated cascades of secondary photons of energies spanning the whole cosmic ray energy spectrum. Upon entering the Earth's atmosphere, these cascades or their parts may generate uniquely characteristic walls of spatially correlated extensive air showers, and the effect is expected also in cases when primary UHE photons are not directed towards the Earth. Particle distributions in these multi-primary UHE photon footprints are expected to have thicknesses of the order of meters and elongations reaching even hundreds of millions kilometers, making them potentially observable with a global, multi-experiment approach, including re-exploring of the historical data, with the expected event rate exceeding the capabilities of even very large cosmic ray observatories. The methods described in this report allow for simulating potentially observable quantities related to CRE induced by UHE photons: densities, energy spectra and geographical orientations of particles at the top of the Earth's atmosphere.

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arXiv2022

X-ray timing and spectral variability properties of blazars S5 0716+714, OJ 287, Mrk 501, and RBS 2070

The X-ray emission from blazars has been widely investigated using several space telescopes. In this work, we explored statistical properties of the X-ray variability in the blazars S5 0716+714, OJ 287, Mkn 501 and RBS 2070 using the archival observations from the XMM-Newton telescope between the period 2002-2020. Several methods of timing and spectral analyses including fractional variability, minimum variability timescale, power spectral density analyses and countrate distribution were performed. In addition, we fitted various spectral models to the observations as well as estimated hardness ratio. The results show that the sources are moderately variable within the intra-day timescale. Three of the four sources exhibited a clear bi-modal pattern in their countrate distribution revealing possible indication of two distinct countrate states, that is, hard and soft countrate states. The slope indices of the power spectral density were found to be centered around 0.5. Furthermore, the spectra of the sources were fitted with single power-law, broken power-law, log-parabolic and black-body+log-parabolic models (the latter only for OJ 287). We conclude that for most of the observations log-parabolic model was the best fit. The power spectral density analysis revealed the variable nature of PSD slopes in the source light curves. The results of this analysis could indicate the non-stationary nature of the blazar processes on intra-day timescales. The observed features can be explained within the context of current blazar models, in which the non-thermal emission mostly arises from kilo-parsec scale relativistic jets.

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arXiv2021

Exploring the variability properties of gamma-ray emission from blazars

We present results of variability study of a sample of 20 powerful blazars using Fermi/LAT (0.1--300 GeV) observations. We studied decade-long observations applying various analysis tools such as flux distribution, symmetry analysis, and RMS-flux relation. It was found that the $γ$-ray flux distribution closely resembles a log-normal probability distribution function and can be characterized by linear RMS-flux relation. The power spectral density analysis shows the statistical variability properties of the sources as studied are consistent with flicker noise, an indication of long-memory processes at work. Statistical analysis of the distribution of flux rise and decay rates in the light curves of the sources, aimed at distinguishing between particle acceleration and energy-dissipation timescales, counter-intuitively suggests that both kinds of rates follow a similar distribution and the derived mean variability timescales are on the order of a few weeks. The corresponding emission region size is used to constrain the location of $γ$-ray production sites in the sources to be a few parsecs. Additionally, using Lomb-Scargle periodogram and weighted wavelet z-transform methods and extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we detected year-timescale quasi-periodic oscillations in the sources S5 0716+714, Mrk 421, ON +325, PKS 1424-418, and PKS 2155-304. We also performed recurrence quantification analysis of the sources and directly measure the deterministic quantities, which suggest that the dynamical processes in blazars could be a combination of deterministic and stochastic processes, while some of the source light curves revealed significant deterministic content.

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arXiv2020

Cosmic Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory

The Cosmic Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory (CREDO) is a newly formed, global collaboration dedicated to observing and studying cosmic rays (CR) and cosmic ray ensembles (CRE): groups of a minimum of two CR with a common primary interaction vertex or the same parent particle. The CREDO program embraces testing known CR and CRE scenarios, and preparing to observe unexpected physics, it is also suitable for multi-messenger and multi-mission applications. Perfectly matched to CREDO capabilities, CRE could be formed both within classical models (e.g. as products of photon-photon interactions), and exotic scenarios (e.g. as results of decay of Super Heavy Dark Matter particles). Their fronts might be significantly extended in space and time, and they might include cosmic rays of energies spanning the whole cosmic ray energy spectrum, with a footprint composed of at least two extensive air showers with correlated arrival directions and arrival times. Since CRE are mostly expected to be spread over large areas and, because of the expected wide energy range of the contributing particles, CRE detection might only be feasible when using available cosmic ray infrastructure collectively, i.e. as a globally extended network of detectors. Thus, with this review article, the CREDO Collaboration invites the astroparticle physics community to actively join or to contribute to the research dedicated to CRE, and in particular to share any cosmic ray data useful for the specific CRE detection strategies.

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arXiv2020

Search for ultra-high energy photons through preshower effect with gamma-ray telescopes: Study of CTA-North efficiency

We study the feasibility of detecting preshower initiated by ultra-high energy photons using Monte-Carlo simulations of nearly horizontal air showers for the example of the La Palma site of the Cherenkov Telescope Array. We investigate the efficiency of multivariate analysis in correctly identifying preshower events initiated by 40 EeV photons and cosmic-ray dominated background simulated in the energy range 10 TeV -- 10 EeV. The effective areas for such kind of events are also investigated and event rate predictions related to different ultra-high energy photons production models are presented. While the expected number of preshowers from diffuse emission of UHE photon for 30 hours of observation is estimated around $3.3\times10^{-5}$ based on the upper limits put by the Pierre Auger Observatory, this value is at the level of $2.7\times10^{-4}$ ($5.7\times 10^{-5}$) when considering the upper limits of the Pierre Auger Observatory (Telescope Array) on UHE photon point sources. However, UHE photon emission may undergo possible "boosting" due to gamma-ray burst, increasing the expected number of preshower events up to 0.17 and yielding a minimum required flux of $\sim 0.2$ $\mathrm{km^{-2}yr^{-1}}$ to obtain one preshower event, which is about a factor 10 higher than upper limits put by the Pierre Auger Observatory and Telescope Array (0.034 and 0.019 $\mathrm{km^{-2}yr^{-1}}$, respectively).

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arXiv2020

The Nature of $γ$-ray Variability in Blazars

We present an in-depth and systematic variability study of a sample of 20 powerful blazars, including 12 BL Lacs and 8 flat spectrum radio quasars, applying various analysis tools such as flux distribution, symmetry analysis, and time series analysis on the decade-long Fermi/LAT observations. The results show that blazars with steeper \gama-ray spectral indexes are found to be more variable; and the \gama-ray flux distribution closely resembles lognormal probability distribution function. The statistical variability properties of the sources as studied by power spectral density analysis are consistent with \emph{flicker noise} ($P(ν)\propto1/ν$) -- an indication of long-memory processes at work. Statistical analysis of the distribution of flux rise and decay rates in the light curves of the sources, aimed at distinguishing between particle acceleration and energy dissipation timescales, counter-intuitively suggests that both kinds of rates follow a similar distribution and the derived mean variability timescales are in the order of a few weeks. The corresponding emission region size is used to constrain location of \gama-ray production sites in the sources to be a few parsecs. Additionally, using Lomb-Scargle periodogram and weighted wavelet z-transform methods and extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we detected year timescale quasi-periodic oscillations in the sources S5 0716+714, Mrk 421, ON +325, PKS 1424-418 and PKS 2155-304. The detection significance was computed taking proper account of the red-noise and other artifacts inherent in the observations. We explain the results in the light of current blazar models with relativistic shocks propagating down the jet viewed close to the line of sight.

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arXiv2019

A communication solution for portable detectors of the Cosmic Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory

The search for Cosmic-Ray Ensembles (CRE), groups of correlated cosmic rays that might be distributed over very large areas, even of the size of the planet, requires a globally spread and dense network of detectors, as proposed by the Cosmic-Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory (CREDO) Collaboration. This proposal motivates an effort towards exploring the potential of using even very much diversified detection technologies within one system, with detection units located even in hard-to-reach places, where, nevertheless, the sensors could work independently - without human intervention. For these reasons we have developed a dedicated communication solution enabling the connection of many different types of detectors, in a range of environments. The proposed data transmission system uses radio waves as an information carrier on the 169MHz frequency band in a contrast to the typical commercially used frequencies in a IoT systems (868MHz). The connectivity within the system is based on the star topology, which ensures the least energy consumption. The solution is now being prepared to being implemented using the prototype detection system based on the CosmicWatch open hardware design: a portable, pocket size, and economy particle detector using the scintillation technique. Our prototype detector is equipped with a dedicated software that integrates it with the already operational CREDO server system.

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arXiv2019

Search for ultra-high energy photons: observing the preshower effect with gamma-ray telescopes

Ultra-high energy photons constitute one of the most important pieces of the astroparticle physics problems. Their observation may provide new insight on several phenomena such as supermassive particle annihilation or the GZK effect. Because of the absence of any significant photon identification by a leading experiments such as the Pierre Auger Observatory, we consider a screening phenomenon called preshower effect which could efficiently affect ultra-high energy photon propagation. This effect is a consequence of photon interactions with the geomagnetic field and results in large electromagnetic cascade of particles several thousands kilometers above the atmosphere. This collection of particles, called cosmic-ray ensembles (CRE), may reach the atmosphere and produce the well-known air showers. In this paper we propose to use gamma-ray telescopes to look for air showers induced by CRE. Possible sources of ultra-high energy photons include the GZK effect and Super Heavy Dark Matter particles. Simulations involving the preshower effect and detectors response are performed and properties of these peculiar air showers are investigated. The use of boosted decision trees to obtain the best cosmic-ray ensemble/hadron separation, the aperture and event rate predictions for a few models of photon production are also presented.

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arXiv2019

Cosmic Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory: Status and perspectives of a global cosmic ray detection framework

The Cosmic-Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory (CREDO) is a project dedicated to global studies of extremely extended cosmic-ray phenomena, the cosmic-ray ensembles (CRE), beyond the capabilities of existing detectors and observatories. Up to date cosmic-ray research has been focused on detecting single air showers, while the search for ensembles of cosmic-rays, which may spread over a significant fraction of the Earth, is a scientific terra incognita. The key idea of CREDO is to combine existing cosmic-ray detectors (large professional arrays, educational instruments, individual detectors, such as smartphones, etc.) into a worldwide network, thus enabling a global analysis. The second goal of CREDO involves a large number of participants (citizen science!), assuring the geographical spread of the detectors and managing manpower necessary to deal with vast amount of data to search for evidence for cosmic-ray ensembles. In this paper the status and perspectives of the project are presented.

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arXiv2019

Cosmic ray ensembles from ultra-high energy photons propagating in the galactic and intergalactic space

Propagation of ultra-high energy photons in the galactic and intergalactic space gives rise to cascades comprising thousands of photons. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we investigate the development of such cascades in the solar magnetosphere, and find that the photons in the cascades are distributed over hundreds of kilometers as they arrive at the top of the Earth's atmosphere. We also perform similar study for cascades starting as far as 10 Mpc away from us using relevant magnetic field models. A few photons correlated in time are expected to arrive at the Earth from the latter type of cascade. We present our simulation results and discuss the prospects for detection of these cascades with the Cosmic-Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory.

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arXiv2018

Detection of Cosmic-Ray Ensembles with CREDO

One of the main objectives of cosmic-ray studies are precise measurements of energy and chemical composition of particles with extreme energies. Large and sophisticated detectors are used to find events seen as showers starting in the Earth's atmosphere with recorded energies larger than 100 EeV. However, a Cosmic-Ray Ensemble (CRE) developing before reaching the Earth as a bunch of correlated particles may spread over larger areas and requires an extended set of detectors to be discovered. The Cosmic-Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory (CREDO) is a solution to find such phenomena. Even simple detectors measuring the particle arrival time only are useful in this approach, as they are sufficient both to provide candidate CRE events and to determine the direction from which they are arriving.

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arXiv2016

Measurement of the Radiation Energy in the Radio Signal of Extensive Air Showers as a Universal Estimator of Cosmic-Ray Energy

We measure the energy emitted by extensive air showers in the form of radio emission in the frequency range from 30 to 80 MHz. Exploiting the accurate energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory, we obtain a radiation energy of 15.8 \pm 0.7 (stat) \pm 6.7 (sys) MeV for cosmic rays with an energy of 1 EeV arriving perpendicularly to a geomagnetic field of 0.24 G, scaling quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy. A comparison with predictions from state-of-the-art first-principle calculations shows agreement with our measurement. The radiation energy provides direct access to the calorimetric energy in the electromagnetic cascade of extensive air showers. Comparison with our result thus allows the direct calibration of any cosmic-ray radio detector against the well-established energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory.

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