arXiv subjects

Nisar R. Ahmed

Publications and source records attributed to Nisar R. Ahmed.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Hybrid Adaptive Kalman Filtering for Data-Efficient Joint Tracking and Classification

Kalman filtering performance is highly sensitive to model mismatch and noise covariance tuning. Learning-based approaches address these limitations but typically rely on supervised training with large datasets and do not produce consistent uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we propose a self-supervised Hybrid Adaptive Kalman Filter that learns structured corrections to system dynamics and process noise covariance from measurements alone while preserving the probabilistic structure of the filter. This allows the innovation likelihood to be computed and subsequently used for model classification via generalized Bayesian inference. Experimental results on real-world and simulated datasets demonstrate improved estimation accuracy and statistical consistency as well as robust classification performance across both low-data and large-data scenarios.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

"A Good Bot Always Knows Its Limitations": Assessing Autonomous System Decision-making Competencies through Factorized Machine Self-confidence

How can intelligent machines assess their competency to complete a task? This question has come into focus for autonomous systems that algorithmically make decisions under uncertainty. We argue that machine self-confidence -- a form of meta-reasoning based on self-assessments of system knowledge about the state of the world, itself, and ability to reason about and execute tasks -- leads to many computable and useful competency indicators for such agents. This paper presents our body of work, so far, on this concept in the form of the Factorized Machine Self-confidence (FaMSeC) framework, which holistically considers several major factors driving competency in algorithmic decision-making: outcome assessment, solver quality, model quality, alignment quality, and past experience. In FaMSeC, self-confidence indicators are derived via 'problem-solving statistics' embedded in Markov decision process solvers and related approaches. These statistics come from evaluating probabilistic exceedance margins in relation to certain outcomes and associated competency standards specified by an evaluator. Once designed, and evaluated, the statistics can be easily incorporated into autonomous agents and serve as indicators of competency. We include detailed descriptions and examples for Markov decision process agents, and show how outcome assessment and solver quality factors can be found for a range of tasking contexts through novel use of meta-utility functions, behavior simulations, and surrogate prediction models. Numerical evaluations are performed to demonstrate that FaMSeC indicators perform as desired (references to human subject studies beyond the scope of this paper are provided).

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Rao-Blackwellized POMDP Planning

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a structured framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but their application requires efficient belief updates. Sequential Importance Resampling Particle Filters (SIRPF), also known as Bootstrap Particle Filters, are commonly used as belief updaters in large approximate POMDP solvers, but they face challenges such as particle deprivation and high computational costs as the system's state dimension grows. To address these issues, this study introduces Rao-Blackwellized POMDP (RB-POMDP) approximate solvers and outlines generic methods to apply Rao-Blackwellization in both belief updates and online planning. We compare the performance of SIRPF and Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filters (RBPF) in a simulated localization problem where an agent navigates toward a target in a GPS-denied environment using POMCPOW and RB-POMCPOW planners. Our results not only confirm that RBPFs maintain accurate belief approximations over time with fewer particles, but, more surprisingly, RBPFs combined with quadrature-based integration improve planning quality significantly compared to SIRPF-based planning under the same computational limits.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Deep Modeling of Non-Gaussian Aleatoric Uncertainty

Deep learning offers promising new ways to accurately model aleatoric uncertainty in robotic state estimation systems, particularly when the uncertainty distributions do not conform to traditional assumptions of being fixed and Gaussian. In this study, we formulate and evaluate three fundamental deep learning approaches for conditional probability density modeling to quantify non-Gaussian aleatoric uncertainty: parametric, discretized, and generative modeling. We systematically compare the respective strengths and weaknesses of these three methods on simulated non-Gaussian densities as well as on real-world terrain-relative navigation data. Our results show that these deep learning methods can accurately capture complex uncertainty patterns, highlighting their potential for improving the reliability and robustness of estimation systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Exact and Approximate Heterogeneous Bayesian Decentralized Data Fusion

In Bayesian peer-to-peer decentralized data fusion, the underlying distributions held locally by autonomous agents are frequently assumed to be over the same set of variables (homogeneous). This requires each agent to process and communicate the full global joint distribution, and thus leads to high computation and communication costs irrespective of relevancy to specific local objectives. This work formulates and studies heterogeneous decentralized fusion problems, defined as the set of problems in which either the communicated or the processed distributions describe different, but overlapping, random states of interest that are subsets of a larger full global joint state. We exploit the conditional independence structure of such problems and provide a rigorous derivation of novel exact and approximate conditionally factorized heterogeneous fusion rules. We further develop a new version of the homogeneous Channel Filter algorithm to enable conservative heterogeneous fusion for smoothing and filtering scenarios in dynamic problems. Numerical examples show more than $99.5\%$ potential communication reduction for heterogeneous channel filter fusion, and a multi-target tracking simulation shows that these methods provide consistent estimates while remaining computationally scalable.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

Scalable Factor Graph-Based Heterogeneous Bayesian DDF for Dynamic Systems

Heterogeneous Bayesian decentralized data fusion captures the set of problems in which two robots must combine two probability density functions over non-equal, but overlapping sets of random variables. In the context of multi-robot dynamic systems, this enables robots to take a "divide and conquer" approach to reason and share data over complementary tasks instead of over the full joint state space. For example, in a target tracking application, this allows robots to track different subsets of targets and share data on only common targets. This paper presents a framework by which robots can each use a local factor graph to represent relevant partitions of a complex global joint probability distribution, thus allowing them to avoid reasoning over the entirety of a more complex model and saving communication as well as computation costs. From a theoretical point of view, this paper makes contributions by casting the heterogeneous decentralized fusion problem in terms of a factor graph, analyzing the challenges that arise due to dynamic filtering, and then developing a new conservative filtering algorithm that ensures statistical correctness. From a practical point of view, we show how this framework can be used to represent different multi-robot applications and then test it with simulations and hardware experiments to validate and demonstrate its statistical conservativeness, applicability, and robustness to real-world challenges.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

Using Surprise Index for Competency Assessment in Autonomous Decision-Making

This paper considers the problem of evaluating an autonomous system's competency in performing a task, particularly when working in dynamic and uncertain environments. The inherent opacity of machine learning models, from the perspective of the user, often described as a `black box', poses a challenge. To overcome this, we propose using a measure called the Surprise index, which leverages available measurement data to quantify whether the dynamic system performs as expected. We show that the surprise index can be computed in closed form for dynamic systems when observed evidence in a probabilistic model if the joint distribution for that evidence follows a multivariate Gaussian marginal distribution. We then apply it to a nonlinear spacecraft maneuver problem, where actions are chosen by a reinforcement learning agent and show it can indicate how well the trajectory follows the required orbit.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2023

Nonlinear Heterogeneous Bayesian Decentralized Data Fusion

The factor graph decentralized data fusion (FG-DDF) framework was developed for the analysis and exploitation of conditional independence in {heterogeneous Bayesian decentralized fusion problems, in which robots update and fuse pdfs over different, but overlapping subsets of random states. This allows robots to efficiently use smaller probabilistic models and sparse message passing to accurately and scalably fuse relevant local parts of a larger global joint state pdf while accounting for data dependencies between robots. Whereas prior work required limiting assumptions about network connectivity and model linearity, this paper relaxes these to explore the applicability and robustness of FG-DDF in more general settings. We develop a new heterogeneous fusion rule which generalizes the homogeneous covariance intersection algorithm for such cases and test it in multi-robot tracking and localization scenarios with non-linear motion/observation models under communication dropouts. Simulation and hardware experiments show that, in practice, the FG-DDF continues to provide consistent filtered estimates under these more practical operating conditions, while reducing computation and communication costs by more than 99\%, thus enabling the design of scalable real-world multi-robot systems.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2023

Exploiting Structure for Optimal Multi-Agent Bayesian Decentralized Estimation

A key challenge in Bayesian decentralized data fusion is the `rumor propagation' or `double counting' phenomenon, where previously sent data circulates back to its sender. It is often addressed by approximate methods like covariance intersection (CI) which takes a weighted average of the estimates to compute the bound. The problem is that this bound is not tight, i.e. the estimate is often over-conservative. In this paper, we show that by exploiting the probabilistic independence structure in multi-agent decentralized fusion problems a tighter bound can be found using (i) an expansion to the CI algorithm that uses multiple (non-monolithic) weighting factors instead of one (monolithic) factor in the original CI and (ii) a general optimization scheme that is able to compute optimal bounds and fully exploit an arbitrary dependency structure. We compare our methods and show that on a simple problem, they converge to the same solution. We then test our new non-monolithic CI algorithm on a large-scale target tracking simulation and show that it achieves a tighter bound and a more accurate estimate compared to the original monolithic CI.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2023

Towards Decentralized Heterogeneous Multi-Robot SLAM and Target Tracking

In many robotics problems, there is a significant gain in collaborative information sharing between multiple robots, for exploration, search and rescue, tracking multiple targets, or mapping large environments. One of the key implicit assumptions when solving cooperative multi-robot problems is that all robots use the same (homogeneous) underlying algorithm. However, in practice, we want to allow collaboration between robots possessing different capabilities and that therefore must rely on heterogeneous algorithms. We present a system architecture and the supporting theory, to enable collaboration in a decentralized network of robots, where each robot relies on different estimation algorithms. To develop our approach, we focus on multi-robot simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) with multi-target tracking. Our theoretical framework builds on our idea of exploiting the conditional independence structure inherent to many robotics applications to separate between each robot's local inference (estimation) tasks and fuse only relevant parts of their non-equal, but overlapping probability density function (pdfs). We present a new decentralized graph-based approach to the multi-robot SLAM and tracking problem. We leverage factor graphs to split between different parts of the problem for efficient data sharing between robots in the network while enabling robots to use different local sparse landmark/dense/metric-semantic SLAM algorithms.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2023

Dynamic Competency Self-Assessment for Autonomous Agents

As autonomous robots are deployed in increasingly complex environments, platform degradation, environmental uncertainties, and deviations from validated operation conditions can make it difficult for human partners to understand robot capabilities and limitations. The ability for a robot to self-assess its competency in dynamic and uncertain environments will be a crucial next step in successful human-robot teaming. This work presents and evaluates an Event-Triggered Generalized Outcome Assessment (ET-GOA) algorithm for autonomous agents to dynamically assess task confidence during execution. The algorithm uses a fast online statistical test of the agent's observations and its model predictions to decide when competency assessment is needed. We provide experimental results using ET-GOA to generate competency reports during a simulated delivery task and suggest future research directions for self-assessing agents.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2023

Learning to Forecast Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainties over Long Horizon Trajectories

Giving autonomous agents the ability to forecast their own outcomes and uncertainty will allow them to communicate their competencies and be used more safely. We accomplish this by using a learned world model of the agent system to forecast full agent trajectories over long time horizons. Real world systems involve significant sources of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty that compound and interact over time in the trajectory forecasts. We develop a deep generative world model that quantifies aleatoric uncertainty while incorporating the effects of epistemic uncertainty during the learning process. We show on two reinforcement learning problems that our uncertainty model produces calibrated outcome uncertainty estimates over the full trajectory horizon.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Uncertainty Quantification for Competency Assessment of Autonomous Agents

For safe and reliable deployment in the real world, autonomous agents must elicit appropriate levels of trust from human users. One method to build trust is to have agents assess and communicate their own competencies for performing given tasks. Competency depends on the uncertainties affecting the agent, making accurate uncertainty quantification vital for competency assessment. In this work, we show how ensembles of deep generative models can be used to quantify the agent's aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties when forecasting task outcomes as part of competency assessment.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2022

Competency Assessment for Autonomous Agents using Deep Generative Models

For autonomous agents to act as trustworthy partners to human users, they must be able to reliably communicate their competency for the tasks they are asked to perform. Towards this objective, we develop probabilistic world models based on deep generative modelling that allow for the simulation of agent trajectories and accurate calculation of tasking outcome probabilities. By combining the strengths of conditional variational autoencoders with recurrent neural networks, the deep generative world model can probabilistically forecast trajectories over long horizons to task completion. We show how these forecasted trajectories can be used to calculate outcome probability distributions, which enable the precise assessment of agent competency for specific tasks and initial settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Conservative Filtering for Heterogeneous Decentralized Data Fusion in Dynamic Robotic Systems

This paper presents a method for Bayesian multi-robot peer-to-peer data fusion where any pair of autonomous robots hold non-identical, but overlapping parts of a global joint probability distribution, representing real world inference tasks (e.g., mapping, tracking). It is shown that in dynamic stochastic systems, filtering, which corresponds to marginalization of past variables, results in direct and hidden dependencies between variables not mutually monitored by the robots, which might lead to an overconfident fused estimate. The paper makes both theoretical and practical contributions by providing (i) a rigorous analysis of the origin of the dependencies and and (ii) a conservative filtering algorithm for heterogeneous data fusion in dynamic systems that can be integrated with existing fusion algorithms. This work uses factor graphs as an analysis tool and an inference engine. Each robot in the network maintains a local factor graph and communicates only relevant parts of it (a sub-graph) to its neighboring robot. We discuss the applicability to various multi-robot robotic applications and demonstrate the performance using a multi-robot multi-target tracking simulation, showing that the proposed algorithm produces conservative estimates at each robot.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2021

Factor Graphs for Heterogeneous Bayesian Decentralized Data Fusion

This paper explores the use of factor graphs as an inference and analysis tool for Bayesian peer-to-peer decentralized data fusion. We propose a framework by which agents can each use local factor graphs to represent relevant partitions of a complex global joint probability distribution, thus allowing them to avoid reasoning over the entirety of a more complex model and saving communication as well as computation cost. This allows heterogeneous multi-robot systems to cooperate on a variety of real world, task oriented missions, where scalability and modularity are key. To develop the initial theory and analyze the limits of this approach, we focus our attention on static linear Gaussian systems in tree-structured networks and use Channel Filters (also represented by factor graphs) to explicitly track common information. We discuss how this representation can be used to describe various multi-robot applications and to design and analyze new heterogeneous data fusion algorithms. We validate our method in simulations of a multi-agent multi-target tracking and cooperative multi-agent mapping problems, and discuss the computation and communication gains of this approach.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2020

Explaining Conditions for Reinforcement Learning Behaviors from Real and Imagined Data

The deployment of reinforcement learning (RL) in the real world comes with challenges in calibrating user trust and expectations. As a step toward developing RL systems that are able to communicate their competencies, we present a method of generating human-interpretable abstract behavior models that identify the experiential conditions leading to different task execution strategies and outcomes. Our approach consists of extracting experiential features from state representations, abstracting strategy descriptors from trajectories, and training an interpretable decision tree that identifies the conditions most predictive of different RL behaviors. We demonstrate our method on trajectory data generated from interactions with the environment and on imagined trajectory data that comes from a trained probabilistic world model in a model-based RL setting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

In Automation We Trust: Investigating the Role of Uncertainty in Active Learning Systems

We investigate how different active learning (AL) query policies coupled with classification uncertainty visualizations affect analyst trust in automated classification systems. A current standard policy for AL is to query the oracle (e.g., the analyst) to refine labels for datapoints where the classifier has the highest uncertainty. This is an optimal policy for the automation system as it yields maximal information gain. However, model-centric policies neglect the effects of this uncertainty on the human component of the system and the consequent manner in which the human will interact with the system post-training. In this paper, we present an empirical study evaluating how AL query policies and visualizations lending transparency to classification influence trust in automated classification of image data. We found that query policy significantly influences an analyst's trust in an image classification system, and we use these results to propose a set of oracle query policies and visualizations for use during AL training phases that can influence analyst trust in classification.

cs.LG↗