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Nishant Malik

Publications and source records attributed to Nishant Malik.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

Tree-based Learning for High-Fidelity Prediction of Chaos

Model-free forecasting of the temporal evolution of chaotic systems is crucial but challenging. Existing solutions require hyperparameter tuning, significantly hindering their wider adoption. In this work, we introduce a tree-based approach not requiring hyperparameter tuning: TreeDOX. It uses time delay overembedding as explicit short-term memory and Extra-Trees Regressors to perform feature reduction and forecasting. We demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of TreeDOX using the Henon map, Lorenz and Kuramoto-Sivashinsky systems, and the real-world Southern Oscillation Index.

cs.LG

Adaptive network dynamics and behavioral contagion in multi-state drug use propagation

Addictive behavior spreads through social networks via feedback among choice, peer pressure, and shifting ties, a process that eludes standard epidemic models. We present a comprehensive multi-state network model that integrates utility-based behavioral transitions with adaptive network rewiring, capturing the co-evolutionary dynamics between drug use patterns and social structure. Our framework distinguishes four distinct individual states by combining drug use behavior with addiction status, while allowing individuals to strategically disconnect from drug-using neighbors and form new connections with non-users. Monte Carlo simulations show that rewiring reshapes contagion, pulling high-degree nodes into drug-free clusters and stranding users on sparse fringes. Systematic exploration of the four-dimensional parameter space reveals sharp phase transitions reminiscent of critical phenomena in statistical physics, where small changes in recovery rates or addiction conversion rates trigger dramatic shifts in population-level outcomes. Most significantly, the rewiring probability emerges as the dominant control parameter, establishing adaptive network management as more influential than biological susceptibility factors in determining addiction prevalence. Our findings challenge traditional intervention paradigms by revealing that empowering individuals to curate their social environments may be more effective than targeting individual behavioral change alone.

physics.soc-ph

Landslide Topology Uncovers Failure Movements

The death toll and monetary damages from landslides continue to rise despite advancements in predictive modeling. The predictive capability of these models is limited as landslide databases used in training and assessing the models often have crucial information missing, such as underlying failure types. Here, we present an approach for identifying failure types based on their movements, e.g., slides and flows by leveraging 3D landslide topology. We observe topological proxies reveal prevalent signatures of mass movement mechanics embedded in the landslide's morphology or shape, such as detecting coupled movement styles within complex landslides. We find identical failure types exhibit similar topological properties, and by using them as predictors, we can identify failure types in historic and event-specific landslide databases (including multi-temporal) from various geomorphological and climatic contexts such as Italy, the US Pacific Northwest region, Denmark, Turkey, and China with 80 to 94 % accuracy. To demonstrate the real-world application of the method, we implement it in two undocumented datasets from China and publicly release the datasets. These new insights can considerably improve the performance of landslide predictive models and impact assessments. Moreover, our work introduces a new paradigm for studying landslide shapes to understand underlying processes through the lens of landslide topology.

cs.LG

Reconfiguration of Amazon's Connectivity in the Climate System

With the recent increase in deforestation, forest fires, and regional temperatures, the concerns around the rapid and complete collapse of the Amazon rainforest ecosystem have heightened. The thresholds of deforestation and the temperature increase required for such a catastrophic event are still uncertain. However, our analysis presented here shows that signatures of changing Amazon are already apparent in historical climate data sets. Here, we extend the methods of climate network analysis and apply them to study the temporal evolution of the connectivity between the Amazon rainforest and the global climate system. We observe that the Amazon rainforest is losing short-range connectivity and gaining more long-range connections, indicating shifts in regional-scale processes. Using embeddings inspired by manifold learning, we show that Amazon connectivity patterns have become more variable in the twenty-first century. By investigating edge-based network metrics on similar regions to the Amazon we see the changing properties of the Amazon are significant in comparison. Furthermore, we simulate diffusion and random walks on these networks and observe a faster spread of perturbations from the Amazon in recent decades. Our methodology innovations can act as a template for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of regional climate change and its impact on global climate using the toolbox of climate network analysis.

physics.ao-ph

Social Clustering in Epidemic Spread on Coevolving Networks

Even though transitivity is a central structural feature of social networks, its influence on epidemic spread on coevolving networks has remained relatively unexplored. Here we introduce and study an adaptive SIS epidemic model wherein the infection and network coevolve with non-trivial probability to close triangles during edge rewiring, leading to substantial reinforcement of network transitivity. This new model provides a unique opportunity to study the role of transitivity in altering the SIS dynamics on a coevolving network. Using numerical simulations and Approximate Master Equations (AME), we identify and examine a rich set of dynamical features in the new model. In many cases, the AME including transitivity reinforcement provides accurate predictions of stationary-state disease prevalences and network degree distributions. Furthermore, for some parameter settings, the AME accurately trace the temporal evolution of the system. We show that higher transitivity reinforcement in the model leads to lower levels of infective individuals in the population, when closing a triangle is the dominant rewiring mechanism. These methods and results may be useful in developing ideas and modeling strategies for controlling SIS type epidemics.

physics.soc-ph

Coherence resonance in a network of FitzHugh-Nagumo systems: interplay of noise, time-delay and topology

We systematically investigate the phenomena of coherence resonance in time-delay coupled networks of FitzHugh-Nagumo elements in the excitable regime. Using numerical simulations, we examine the interplay of noise, time-delayed coupling and network topology in the generation of coherence resonance. In the deterministic case, we show that the delay-induced dynamics is independent of the number of nearest neighbors and the system size. In the presence of noise, we demonstrate the possibility of controlling coherence resonance by varying the time-delay and the number of nearest neighbors. For a locally coupled ring, we show that the time-delay weakens coherence resonance. For nonlocal coupling with appropriate time-delays, both enhancement and weakening of coherence resonance are possible.

nlin.AO

Evolutionary prisoner's dilemma games coevolving on adaptive networks

We study a model for switching strategies in the Prisoner's Dilemma game on adaptive networks of player pairings that coevolve as players attempt to maximize their return. We use a node-based strategy model wherein each player follows one strategy at a time (cooperate or defect) across all of its neighbors, changing that strategy and possibly changing partners in response to local changes in the network of player pairing and in the strategies used by connected partners. We compare and contrast numerical simulations with existing pair approximation differential equations for describing this system, as well as more accurate equations developed here using the framework of approximate master equations. We explore the parameter space of the model, demonstrating the relatively high accuracy of the approximate master equations for describing the system observations made from simulations. We study two variations of this partner-switching model to investigate the system evolution, predict stationary states, and compare the total utilities and other qualitative differences between these two model variants.

cs.SI

Feature-Based Classification of Networks

Network representations of systems from various scientific and societal domains are neither completely random nor fully regular, but instead appear to contain recurring structural building blocks. These features tend to be shared by networks belonging to the same broad class, such as the class of social networks or the class of biological networks. At a finer scale of classification within each such class, networks describing more similar systems tend to have more similar features. This occurs presumably because networks representing similar purposes or constructions would be expected to be generated by a shared set of domain specific mechanisms, and it should therefore be possible to classify these networks into categories based on their features at various structural levels. Here we describe and demonstrate a new, hybrid approach that combines manual selection of features of potential interest with existing automated classification methods. In particular, selecting well-known and well-studied features that have been used throughout social network analysis and network science and then classifying with methods such as random forests that are of special utility in the presence of feature collinearity, we find that we achieve higher accuracy, in shorter computation time, with greater interpretability of the network classification results.

cs.SI

Transitivity reinforcement in the coevolving voter model

One of the fundamental structural properties of many networks is triangle closure. Whereas the influence of this transitivity on a variety of contagion dynamics has been previously explored, existing models of coevolving or adaptive network systems use rewiring rules that randomize away this important property. In contrast, we study here a modified coevolving voter model dynamics that explicitly reinforces and maintains such clustering. Employing extensive numerical simulations, we establish that the transitions and dynamical states observed in coevolving voter model networks without clustering are altered by reinforcing transitivity in the model. We then use a semi-analytical framework in terms of approximate master equations to predict the dynamical behaviors of the model for a variety of parameter settings.

nlin.AO

Noise-induced synchronization in bidirectionally coupled type-I neurons

We present here some studies on noise-induced order and synchronous firing in a system of bidirectionally coupled generic type-I neurons. We find that transitions from unsynchronized to completely synchronized states occur beyond a critical value of noise strength that has a clear functional dependence on neuronal coupling strength and input values. For an inhibitory-excitatory (IE) synaptic coupling, the approach to a partially synchronized state is shown to vary qualitatively depending on whether the input is less or more than a critical value. We find that introduction of noise can cause a delay in the bifurcation of the firing pattern of the excitatory neuron for IE coupling.

nlin.AO

Fluctuation of similarity (FLUS) to detect transitions between distinct dynamical regimes in short time series

Recently a method which employs computing of fluctuations in a measure of nonlinear similarity based on local recurrence properties in a univariate time series, was introduced to identify distinct dynamical regimes and transitions between them in a short time series [1]. Here we present the details of the analytical relationships between the newly introduced measure and the well known concepts of attractor dimensions and Lyapunov exponents. We show that the new measure has linear dependence on the effective dimension of the attractor and it measures the variations in the sum of the Lyapunov spectrum. To illustrate the practical usefulness of the method, we employ it to identify various types of dynamical transitions in different nonlinear models. Also, we present testbed examples for the new method's robustness against the presence of noise and missing values in the time series. Furthermore, we use this method to analyze time series from the field of social dynamics, where we present an analysis of the US crime record's time series from the year 1975 to 1993. Using this method, we have found that dynamical complexity in robberies was influenced by the unemployment rate till late 1980's. We have also observed a dynamical transition in homicide and robbery rates in the late 1980's and early 1990's, leading to increase in the dynamical complexity of these rates.

nlin.CD

Role of social environment and social clustering in spread of opinions in co-evolving networks

Taking a pragmatic approach to the processes involved in the phenomena of collective opinion formation, we investigate two specific modifications to the co-evolving network voter model of opinion formation, studied by Holme and Newman [1]. First, we replace the rewiring probability parameter by a distribution of probability of accepting or rejecting opinions between individuals, accounting for the asymmetric influences in relationships among individuals in a social group. Second, we modify the rewiring step by a path-length-based preference for rewiring that reinforces local clustering. We have investigated the influences of these modifications on the outcomes of the simulations of this model. We found that varying the shape of the distribution of probability of accepting or rejecting opinions can lead to the emergence of two qualitatively distinct final states, one having several isolated connected components each in internal consensus leading to the existence of diverse set of opinions and the other having one single dominant connected component with each node within it having the same opinion. Furthermore, and more importantly, we found that the initial clustering in network can also induce similar transitions. Our investigation also brings forward that these transitions are governed by a weak and complex dependence on system size. We found that the networks in the final states of the model have rich structural properties including the small world property for some parameter regimes. [1] P. Holme and M. Newman, Phys. Rev. E 74, 056108 (2006).

physics.soc-ph

Complete synchronization in coupled Type-I neurons

For a system of type-I neurons bidirectionally coupled through a nonlinear feedback mechanism, we discuss the issue of noise-induced complete synchronization (CS). For the inputs to the neurons, we point out that the rate of change of instantaneous frequency with the instantaneous phase of the stochastic inputs to each neuron matches exactly with that for the other in the event of CS of their outputs. Our observation can be exploited in practical situations to produce completely synchronized outputs in artificial devices. For excitatory-excitatory synaptic coupling, a functional dependence for the synchronization error on coupling and noise strengths is obtained. Finally we report an observation of noise-induced CS between non-identical neurons coupled bidirectionally through random non-zero couplings in an all-to- all way in a large neuronal ensemble.

nlin.AO