arXiv subjects

Nizar Touzi

Publications and source records attributed to Nizar Touzi.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Optimal electricity demand response contracting with responsiveness incentives

Despite the success of demand response programs in retail electricity markets in reducing average consumption, the random responsiveness of consumers to price event makes their efficiency questionable to achieve the flexibility needed for electric systems with a large share of renewable energy. The variance of consumers' responses depreciates the value of these mechanisms and makes them weakly reliable. This paper aims at designing demand response contracts which allow to act on both the average consumption and its variance. The interaction between a risk--averse producer and a risk--averse consumer is modelled through a Principal--Agent problem, thus accounting for the moral hazard underlying demand response contracts. We provide closed--form solution for the optimal contract in the case of constant marginal costs of energy and volatility for the producer and constant marginal value of energy for the consumer. We show that the optimal contract has a rebate form where the initial condition of the consumption serves as a baseline. Further, the consumer cannot manipulate the baseline at his own advantage. The second--best price for energy and volatility are non--constant and non--increasing in time. The price for energy is lower (resp. higher) than the marginal cost of energy during peak--load (resp. off--peak) periods. We illustrate the potential benefit issued from the implementation of an incentive mechanism on the responsiveness of the consumer by calibrating our model with publicly available data. We predict a significant increase of responsiveness under our optimal contract and a significant increase of the producer satisfaction.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Zero-sum path-dependent stochastic differential games in weak formulation

We consider zero-sum stochastic differential games with possibly path-dependent controlled state. Unlike the previous literature, we allow for weak solutions of the state equation so that the players' controls are automatically of feedback type. Under some restrictions, needed for the a priori regularity of the upper and lower value functions of the game, we show that the game value exists when both the appropriate path-dependent Isaacs condition, and the uniqueness of viscosity solutions of the corresponding path-dependent Isaacs-HJB equation hold. We also provide a general verification argument and a characterisation of saddle-points by means of an appropriate notion of second-order backward SDEs.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Branching diffusion representation for nonlinear Cauchyproblems and Monte Carlo approximation

We provide a probabilistic representations of the solution of some semilinear hyperbolicand high-order PDEs based on branching diffusions. These representations pave theway for a Monte-Carlo approximation of the solution, thus bypassing the curse ofdimensionality. We illustrate the numerical implications in the context of some popularPDEs in physics such as nonlinear Klein-Gordon equation, a simplied scalar versionof the Yang-Mills equation, a fourth-order nonlinear beam equation and the Gross-Pitaevskii PDEas an example of nonlinear Schrodinger equations.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Irreducible convex paving for decomposition of multi-dimensional martingale transport plans

Martingale transport plans on the line are known from Beiglbock & Juillet to have an irreducible decomposition on a (at most) countable union of intervals. We provide an extension of this decomposition for martingale transport plans in R^d, d larger than one. Our decomposition is a partition of R^d consisting of a possibly uncountable family of relatively open convex components, with the required measurability so that the disintegration is well-defined. We justify the relevance of our decomposition by proving the existence of a martingale transport plan filling these components. We also deduce from this decomposition a characterization of the structure of polar sets with respect to all martingale transport plans.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

The Root solution to the multi-marginal embedding problem: an optimal stopping and time-reversal approach

We provide a complete characterisation of the Root solution to the Skorokhod embedding problem (SEP) by means of an optimal stopping formulation. Our methods are purely probabilistic and the analysis relies on a tailored time-reversal argument. This approach allows us to address the long-standing question of a multiple marginals extension of the Root solution of the SEP. Our main result establishes a complete solution to the n-marginal SEP using first hitting times of barrier sets by the time-space process. The barriers are characterised by means of a recursive sequence of optimal stopping problems. Moreover, we prove that our solution enjoys a global optimality property extending the one-marginal Root case. Our results hold for general, one-dimensional, martingale diffusions.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Path-dependent equations and viscosity solutions in infinite dimension

Path-dependent PDEs (PPDEs) are natural objects to study when one deals with non Markovian models. Recently, after the introduction of the so-called pathwise (or functional or Dupire) calculus (see [15]), in the case of finite-dimensional underlying space various papers have been devoted to studying the well-posedness of such kind of equations, both from the point of view of regular solutions (see e.g. [15, 9]) and viscosity solutions (see e.g. [16]). In this paper, motivated by the study of models driven by path-dependent stochastic PDEs, we give a first well-posedness result for viscosity solutions of PPDEs when the underlying space is a separable Hilbert space. We also observe that, in contrast with the finite-dimensional case, our well-posedness result, even in the Markovian case, applies to equations which cannot be treated, up to now, with the known theory of viscosity solutions.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Monotone Martingale Transport Plans and Skorohod Embedding

We show that the left-monotone martingale coupling is optimal for any given performance function satisfying the martingale version of the Spence-Mirrlees condition, without assuming additional structural conditions on the marginals. We also give a new interpretation of the left monotone coupling in terms of Skorokhod embedding which allows us to give a short proof of uniqueness.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Dynamic programming approach to principal-agent problems

We consider a general formulation of the Principal-Agent problem with a lump-sum payment on a finite horizon, providing a systematic method for solving such problems. Our approach is the following: we first find the contract that is optimal among those for which the agent's value process allows a dynamic programming representation, for which the agent's optimal effort is straightforward to find. We then show that the optimization over the restricted family of contracts represents no loss of generality. As a consequence, we have reduced this non-zero sum stochastic differential game to a stochastic control problem which may be addressed by the standard tools of control theory. Our proofs rely on the backward stochastic differential equations approach to non-Markovian stochastic control, and more specifically, on the recent extensions to the second order case.

math.OC↗

arXiv2016

Viscosity solutions of fully nonlinear parabolic path dependent PDEs: Part II

In our previous paper [Ekren, Touzi and Zhang (2015)], we introduced a notion of viscosity solutions for fully nonlinear path-dependent PDEs, extending the semilinear case of Ekren et al. [Ann. Probab. 42 (2014) 204-236], which satisfies a partial comparison result under standard Lipshitz-type assumptions. The main result of this paper provides a full, well-posedness result under an additional assumption, formulated on some partial differential equation, defined locally by freezing the path. Namely, assuming further that such path-frozen standard PDEs satisfy the comparison principle and the Perron approach for existence, we prove that the nonlinear path-dependent PDE has a unique viscosity solution. Uniqueness is implied by a comparison result.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

On the monotonicity principle of optimal Skorokhod embedding problem

In this paper, we provide an alternative proof of the monotonicity principle for the optimal Skorokhod embedding problem established by Beiglböck, Cox and Huesmann. This principle presents a geometric characterization that reflects the desired optimality properties of Skorokhod embeddings. Our proof is based on the adaptation of the Monge-Kantorovich duality in our context together with a delicate application of the optional cross-section theorem and a clever conditioning argument.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Optimal Skorokhod embedding under finitely-many marginal constraints

The Skorokhod embedding problem aims to represent a given probability measure on the real line as the distribution of Brownian motion stopped at a chosen stopping time. In this paper, we consider an extension of the optimal Skorokhod embedding problem to the case of finitely-many marginal constraints. Using the classical convex duality approach together with the optimal stopping theory, we obtain the duality results which are formulated by means of probability measures on an enlarged space. We also relate these results to the problem of martingale optimal transport under multiple marginal constraints.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Tightness and duality of martingale transport on the Skorokhod space

The martingale optimal transport aims to optimally transfer a probability measure to another along the class of martingales. This problem is mainly motivated by the robust superhedging of exotic derivatives in financial mathematics, which turns out to be the corresponding Kantorovich dual. In this paper we consider the continuous-time martingale transport on the Skorokhod space of cadlag paths. Similar to the classical setting of optimal transport, we introduce different dual problems and establish the corresponding dualities by a crucial use of the S-topology and the dynamic programming principle.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Complete Duality for Martingale Optimal Transport on the Line

We study the optimal transport between two probability measures on the real line, where the transport plans are laws of one-step martingales. A quasi-sure formulation of the dual problem is introduced and shown to yield a complete duality theory for general marginals and measurable reward (cost) functions: absence of a duality gap and existence of dual optimizers. Both properties are shown to fail in the classical formulation. As a consequence of the duality result, we obtain a general principle of cyclical monotonicity describing the geometry of optimal transports.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Unbiased simulation of stochastic differential equations

We propose an unbiased Monte-Carlo estimator for $\mathbb{E}[g(X_{t_1}, \cdots, X_{t_n})]$, where $X$ is a diffusion process defined by a multi-dimensional stochastic differential equation (SDE). The main idea is to start instead from a well-chosen simulatable SDE whose coefficients are updated at independent exponential times. Such a simulatable process can be viewed as a regime-switching SDE, or as a branching diffusion process with one single living particle at all times. In order to compensate for the change of the coefficients of the SDE, our main representation result relies on the automatic differentiation technique induced by Bismu-Elworthy-Li formula from Malliavin calculus, as exploited by Fournié et al.(1999) for the simulation of the Greeks in financial applications. In particular, this algorithm can be considered as a variation of the (infinite variance) estimator obtained in Bally and Kohatsu-Higa [Section 6.1](2014) as an application of the parametrix method.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Branching diffusion representation of semilinear PDEs and Monte Carlo approximation

We provide a representation result of parabolic semi-linear PD-Es, with polynomial nonlinearity, by branching diffusion processes. We extend the classical representation for KPP equations, introduced by Skorokhod (1964), Watanabe (1965) and McKean (1975), by allowing for polynomial nonlinearity in the pair $(u, Du)$, where $u$ is the solution of the PDE with space gradient $Du$. Similar to the previous literature, our result requires a non-explosion condition which restrict to "small maturity" or "small nonlinearity" of the PDE. Our main ingredient is the automatic differentiation technique as in Henry Labordere, Tan and Touzi (2015), based on the Malliavin integration by parts, which allows to account for the nonlinearities in the gradient. As a consequence, the particles of our branching diffusion are marked by the nature of the nonlinearity. This new representation has very important numerical implications as it is suitable for Monte Carlo simulation. Indeed, this provides the first numerical method for high dimensional nonlinear PDEs with error estimate induced by the dimension-free Central limit theorem. The complexity is also easily seen to be of the order of the squared dimension. The final section of this paper illustrates the efficiency of the algorithm by some high dimensional numerical experiments.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

The maximum maximum of a martingale with given $n$ marginals

We obtain bounds on the distribution of the maximum of a martingale with fixed marginals at finitely many intermediate times. The bounds are sharp and attained by a solution to $n$-marginal Skorokhod embedding problem in Obłój and Spoida [An iterated Azéma-Yor type embedding for finitely many marginals (2013) Preprint]. It follows that their embedding maximizes the maximum among all other embeddings. Our motivating problem is superhedging lookback options under volatility uncertainty for an investor allowed to dynamically trade the underlying asset and statically trade European call options for all possible strikes and finitely-many maturities. We derive a pathwise inequality which induces the cheapest superhedging value, which extends the two-marginals pathwise inequality of Brown, Hobson and Rogers [Probab. Theory Related Fields 119 (2001) 558-578]. This inequality, proved by elementary arguments, is derived by following the stochastic control approach of Galichon, Henry-Labordère and Touzi [Ann. Appl. Probab. 24 (2014) 312-336].

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Comparison of viscosity solutions of fully nonlinear degenerate parabolic Path-dependent PDEs

We prove a comparison result for viscosity solutions of (possibly degenerate) parabolic fully nonlinear path-dependent PDEs. In contrast with the previous result in Ekren, Touzi & Zhang, our conditions are easier to check and allow for the degenerate case, thus including first order path-dependent PDEs. Our argument follows the regularization method as introduced by Jensen, Lions & Souganidis in the corresponding finite-dimensional PDE setting. The present argument significantly simplifies the comparison proof in Ekren, Touzi & Zhang, but requires an $L^p-$type of continuity (with respect to the path) for the viscosity semi-solutions and for the nonlinearity defining the equation.

math.AP↗

arXiv2015

Large liquidity expansion of super-hedging costs

We consider a financial market with liquidity cost as in Çetin, Jarrow and Protter [2004], where the supply function $S^ε(s,ν)$ depends on a parameter $ε\geq 0$ with $S^0(s,ν)=s$ corresponding to the perfect liquid situation. Using the PDE characterization of Çetin, Soner and Touzi [2010] of the super-hedging cost of an option written on such a stock, we provide a Taylor expansion of the super-hedging cost in powers of $ε$. In particular, we explicitly compute the first term in the expansion for a European Call option and give bounds for the order of the expansion for a European Digital Option.

q-fin.PR↗