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Noel G. Cadigan

Publications and source records attributed to Noel G. Cadigan.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Implementing neural network mixed-effects models in Template Model Builder (TMB)

Neural network mixed-effects models (NMMs) have gained traction by combining the strong representation and predictive power of artificial neural networks with the capacity of mixed-effects modeling to capture complex correlation structures. However, existing estimation approaches rely heavily on manual derivations of objective functions and gradients, which inherently forces simplifying approximations and severely constrains the complexity and accuracy of NMMs. In this work, we introduce a general framework for implementing NMMs using Template Model Builder (TMB). By leveraging automatic differentiation and Laplace approximation, TMB requires users to specify only the negative joint log-likelihood and any regularization terms. The framework automatically integrates out random effects and evaluates the marginal objective function alongside its exact gradients, eliminating the need for manual derivations or ad hoc approximations. We demonstrate the efficiency, flexibility, and statistical performance of TMB-based NMMs across two numerical examples, including an application to monotonic NMMs. Reproducible code is provided to facilitate broader adoption.

stat.ML↗

A state-space catch-at-length assessment model for redfish on the Eastern Grand Bank of Newfoundland reveals large uncertainties in data and stock dynamics

We developed a state-space age-structured catch-at-length (ACL) assessment model for redfish in NAFO Divisions 3LN. The model was developed to address limitations in the surplus production model that was previously used to assess this stock. The ACL model included temporal variations in recruitment, growth, and mortality rates, which were limitations identified for the surplus production model. Our ACL model revealed some important discrepancies in survey and fishery length compositions. Our model also required large population dynamics process errors to achieve good fits to survey indices and catch estimates, which also demonstrated that additional understanding of these data and other model assumptions is required. As such, we do not propose the ACL model to provide management advice for 3LN redfish, but we do provide research recommendations that should provide a better basis to model the 3LN redfish stock dynamics. Recommendations include implementing sampling programs to determine redfish species/ecotypes in commercial and research survey catches and improving biological sampling for maturity and age.

q-bio.PE↗