Chasing Gamma-Ray Signals from Binary Neutron Star Coalescences with the Cherenkov Telescope Array: Prospects and Observing Strategies
The detection of gravitational waves (GWs) from a binary neutron star (BNS) merger by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (GW170817), together with its electromagnetic counterpart, the short gamma-ray burst GRB~170817A, heralded the birth of multi-messenger astronomy. The detection of TeV emission from GRBs motivates follow-up observations with the Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory (CTAO), ideal for detecting such signals due to its unprecedented sensitivity, rapid response, and wide-field survey capabilities. The aim of this work is to evaluate GeV--TeV GW follow-up strategies for CTAO using a multi-step simulation pipeline and to estimate the expected rate of joint GW-GRB detections during observing run O5. Using a simulated sample of BNS systems with corresponding GW detections, gamma-ray emission is simulated through phenomenological prescriptions based on the observed population of short GRBs, including off-axis jet scenarios. CTAO observations are simulated to account for instrument response, sky tiling strategies, integration times, and varying observing conditions. Strategies with variable and constant integration times are investigated. We find that, via an optimized follow-up strategy, about 5% of simulated GW-associated short GRBs produce GeV--TeV radiation detectable by CTAO. Detectability is strongly influenced by the jet opening angle and viewing angle, suggesting that even rough estimates of the viewing angle in GW alerts could enhance targeting. This framework motivates future follow-ups of GW-detectable events, including neutron star-black hole mergers, and further supports the development of advanced strategies incorporating galaxy distributions and synergies with future detectors such as the Einstein Telescope.