arXiv subjects

Ola Engkvist

Publications and source records attributed to Ola Engkvist.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Bridging Chemists and AI: An Expert-Augmented Framework for Interpretable Route Evaluation

Selecting efficient multi-step synthetic routes is a central challenge in organic synthesis, particularly in medicinal and process chemistry, where route choice directly impacts feasibility, cost, and development efficiency. Data-driven assessment systems often oversimplify the multi-objective nature of synthesis design and rely on proxy datasets, such as patent routes, rather than universally grounded criteria. To address this, we introduce an expert-augmented, data-driven scoring framework that integrates machine learning with chemists' domain knowledge for both numerical and explainable route assessment. A DeepSets-based model is trained using tree edit distance between reference and machine-generated routes, and then fine-tuned with expert evaluations to produce both quantitative scores and interpretable qualitative categories: Good, Plausible, and Bad. The resulting system achieves a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.78 and a Pearson correlation of 0.77 for category assessment prediction, and 60.2% top-1 ranking accuracy for score prediction, substantially outperforming the previous baseline of 17.5%.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Confidence is the key: how conformal prediction enhances the generative design of permeable peptides

Generative models coupled with reinforcement learning (RL), such as REINVENT and PepINVENT, have emerged as a powerful framework for de novo molecular design. During the ideation process these generative frameworks utilize various predictive models as part of the optimization objectives. However, the utility of the predictive models can be limited by their domain of applicability. When RL is used to explore the chemical space with predictive models, it can suggest molecules that lie outside the predictor's domain of applicability. As a result, the predictions may become less reliable, potentially steering designs into high reward but also high uncertainty chemical spaces. This is particularly pronounced for cyclic peptides which show therapeutic promise due to their modifiability and large interaction surfaces but are understudied compared to small molecules. While passive membrane permeation in cyclic peptides has attracted interest, identifying optimal permeable designs remains challenging yet crucial for targeting intracellular sites. We present an RL-guided generative framework that designs permeable cyclic peptides using an uncertainty-aware permeability predictor as the scoring component. To address predictive uncertainty, especially impacted by novel chemistry, we integrate conformal prediction (CP) as our uncertainty quantification method. CP assesses designs based on the calibrated model under a user-defined confidence level. We demonstrate that rewarding generated peptides with CP-informed predictions improves both reliability and efficiency of peptide optimization process. This also discourages exploration outside the predictor's applicability domain. This approach bridges the gap between predictive uncertainty and RL-guided exploration, showing how generative modelling and conformal prediction can be combined for the first time.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Machine-Learned Electrostatic Potentials for Accurate Hydration Free Energy Calculations

Free energy calculations are widely used tools in computational chemistry, but their dependence on the assignment of partial charges during force field parametrization reduces their accuracy and reproducibility. In this work, we highlight the direct connection between the low accuracy of AM1-BCC charges on polar species and the poor accuracy of corresponding hydration free energy calculations. We then propose an XGBoost regressor trained on atomic descriptors to rapidly predict charges obtained with high-fidelity density functional theory calculations at PBE0-D3(BJ)/def2-TZVP level. The more accurate electrostatic description results in more reliable free energy calculations than those obtained with semi-empirical AM1-BCC charges. Finally, we leverage this predictive model in combination with a 1 ns gas-phase molecular dynamics simulation to propose the Boltzmann Percentile method for assigning charges representative of the conformational ensemble of a molecule. Charges obtained with this method are robust to different input conformations, and the resulting free energies, calculated on a subset of the FreeSolv dataset, show a root mean squared error of 1.69 kcal/mol against the 3.05 kcal/mol obtained with semi-empirical charges as well as a significantly better ranking. Our method is easily integrable in the traditional workflow and requires the same computational resources. These two aspects make it a realistic tool for enhancing already expensive free energy calculations, and more in general, molecular dynamics simulations in condensed phase.

physics.chem-ph↗

arXiv2025

FlexiFlow: decomposable flow matching for generation of flexible molecular ensemble

Sampling useful three-dimensional molecular structures along with their most favorable conformations is a key challenge in drug discovery. Current state-of-the-art 3D de-novo design flow matching or diffusion-based models are limited to generating a single conformation. However, the conformational landscape of a molecule determines its observable properties and how tightly it is able to bind to a given protein target. By generating a representative set of low-energy conformers, we can more directly assess these properties and potentially improve the ability to generate molecules with desired thermodynamic observables. Towards this aim, we propose FlexiFlow, a novel architecture that extends flow-matching models, allowing for the joint sampling of molecules along with multiple conformations while preserving both equivariance and permutation invariance. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on the QM9 and GEOM Drugs datasets, achieving state-of-the-art results in molecular generation tasks. Our results show that FlexiFlow can generate valid, unstrained, unique, and novel molecules with high fidelity to the training data distribution, while also capturing the conformational diversity of molecules. Moreover, we show that our model can generate conformational ensembles that provide similar coverage to state-of-the-art physics-based methods at a fraction of the inference time. Finally, FlexiFlow can be successfully transferred to the protein-conditioned ligand generation task, even when the dataset contains only static pockets without accompanying conformations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Diverse Mini-Batch Selection in Reinforcement Learning for Efficient Chemical Exploration in de novo Drug Design

In many real-world applications, evaluating the quality of instances is costly and time-consuming, e.g., human feedback and physics simulations, in contrast to proposing new instances. In particular, this is even more critical in reinforcement learning, since it relies on interactions with the environment (i.e., new instances) that must be evaluated to provide a reward signal for learning. At the same time, performing sufficient exploration is crucial in reinforcement learning to find high-rewarding solutions, meaning that the agent should observe and learn from a diverse set of experiences to find different solutions. Thus, we argue that learning from a diverse mini-batch of experiences can have a large impact on the exploration and help mitigate mode collapse. In this paper, we introduce mini-batch diversification for reinforcement learning and study this framework in the context of a real-world problem, namely, drug discovery. We extensively evaluate how our proposed framework can enhance the effectiveness of chemical exploration in de novo drug design, where finding diverse and high-quality solutions is crucial. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed diverse mini-batch selection framework can substantially enhance the diversity of solutions while maintaining high-quality solutions. In drug discovery, such an outcome can potentially lead to fulfilling unmet medical needs faster.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Exploring Modularity of Agentic Systems for Drug Discovery

Large-language models (LLMs) and agentic systems present exciting opportunities to accelerate drug discovery. In this study, we examine the modularity of LLM-based agentic systems for drug discovery, i.e., whether parts of the system such as the LLM and type of agent are interchangeable, a topic that has received limited attention in drug discovery. We compare the performance of different LLMs and the effectiveness of tool-calling agents versus code-generating agents. Our case study, comparing performance in orchestrating tools for chemistry and drug discovery using an LLM-as-a-judge score, shows that Claude-3.5-Sonnet, Claude-3.7-Sonnet and GPT-4o outperform alternative language models such as Llama-3.1-8B, Llama-3.1-70B, GPT-3.5-Turbo, and Nova-Micro. Although we confirm that code-generating agents outperform the tool-calling ones on average, we show that this is highly question- and model-dependent. Furthermore, the impact of replacing system prompts is dependent on the question and model, underscoring that even in this particular domain one cannot just replace components of the system without re-engineering. Our study highlights the necessity of further research into the modularity of agentic systems to enable the development of reliable and modular solutions for real-world problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Diversity-Aware Reinforcement Learning for de novo Drug Design

Fine-tuning a pre-trained generative model has demonstrated good performance in generating promising drug molecules. The fine-tuning task is often formulated as a reinforcement learning problem, where previous methods efficiently learn to optimize a reward function to generate potential drug molecules. Nevertheless, in the absence of an adaptive update mechanism for the reward function, the optimization process can become stuck in local optima. The efficacy of the optimal molecule in a local optimization may not translate to usefulness in the subsequent drug optimization process or as a potential standalone clinical candidate. Therefore, it is important to generate a diverse set of promising molecules. Prior work has modified the reward function by penalizing structurally similar molecules, primarily focusing on finding molecules with higher rewards. To date, no study has comprehensively examined how different adaptive update mechanisms for the reward function influence the diversity of generated molecules. In this work, we investigate a wide range of intrinsic motivation methods and strategies to penalize the extrinsic reward, and how they affect the diversity of the set of generated molecules. Our experiments reveal that combining structure- and prediction-based methods generally yields better results in terms of diversity.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Boltzmann priors for Implicit Transfer Operators

Accurate prediction of thermodynamic properties is essential in drug discovery and materials science. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide a principled approach to this task, yet they typically rely on prohibitively long sequential simulations. Implicit Transfer Operator (ITO) Learning offers a promising approach to address this limitation by enabling stable simulation with time steps orders of magnitude larger than MD. However, to train ITOs, we need extensive, unbiased MD data, limiting the scope of this framework. Here, we introduce Boltzmann Priors for ITO (BoPITO) to enhance ITO learning in two ways. First, BoPITO enables more efficient data generation, and second, it embeds inductive biases for long-term dynamical behavior, simultaneously improving sample efficiency by one order of magnitude and guaranteeing asymptotically unbiased equilibrium statistics. Furthermore, we showcase the use of BoPITO in a new tunable sampling protocol interpolating between ITOs trained on off-equilibrium simulations and an equilibrium model by incorporating unbiased correlation functions. Code is available at https://github.com/olsson-group/bopito .

physics.chem-ph↗

arXiv2025

Temporal Distribution Shift in Real-World Pharmaceutical Data: Implications for Uncertainty Quantification in QSAR Models

The estimation of uncertainties associated with predictions from quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models can accelerate the drug discovery process by identifying promising experiments and allowing an efficient allocation of resources. Several computational tools exist that estimate the predictive uncertainty in machine learning models. However, deviations from the i.i.d. setting have been shown to impair the performance of these uncertainty quantification methods. We use a real-world pharmaceutical dataset to address the pressing need for a comprehensive, large-scale evaluation of uncertainty estimation methods in the context of realistic distribution shifts over time. We investigate the performance of several uncertainty estimation methods, including ensemble-based and Bayesian approaches. Furthermore, we use this real-world setting to systematically assess the distribution shifts in label and descriptor space and their impact on the capability of the uncertainty estimation methods. Our study reveals significant shifts over time in both label and descriptor space and a clear connection between the magnitude of the shift and the nature of the assay. Moreover, we show that pronounced distribution shifts impair the performance of popular uncertainty estimation methods used in QSAR models. This work highlights the challenges of identifying uncertainty quantification methods that remain reliable under distribution shifts introduced by real-world data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Publishing Neural Networks in Drug Discovery Might Compromise Training Data Privacy

This study investigates the risks of exposing confidential chemical structures when machine learning models trained on these structures are made publicly available. We use membership inference attacks, a common method to assess privacy that is largely unexplored in the context of drug discovery, to examine neural networks for molecular property prediction in a black-box setting. Our results reveal significant privacy risks across all evaluated datasets and neural network architectures. Combining multiple attacks increases these risks. Molecules from minority classes, often the most valuable in drug discovery, are particularly vulnerable. We also found that representing molecules as graphs and using message-passing neural networks may mitigate these risks. We provide a framework to assess privacy risks of classification models and molecular representations. Our findings highlight the need for careful consideration when sharing neural networks trained on proprietary chemical structures, informing organisations and researchers about the trade-offs between data confidentiality and model openness.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2024

PepINVENT: Generative peptide design beyond the natural amino acids

Peptides play a crucial role in the drug design and discovery whether as a therapeutic modality or a delivery agent. Non-natural amino acids (NNAAs) have been used to enhance the peptide properties from binding affinity, plasma stability to permeability. Incorporating novel NNAAs facilitates the design of more effective peptides with improved properties. The generative models used in the field, have focused on navigating the peptide sequence space. The sequence space is formed by combinations of a predefined set of amino acids. However, there is still a need for a tool to explore the peptide landscape beyond this enumerated space to unlock and effectively incorporate de novo design of new amino acids. To thoroughly explore the theoretical chemical space of the peptides, we present PepINVENT, a novel generative AI-based tool as an extension to the small molecule molecular design platform, REINVENT. PepINVENT navigates the vast space of natural and non-natural amino acids to propose valid, novel, and diverse peptide designs. The generative model can serve as a central tool for peptide-related tasks, as it was not trained on peptides with specific properties or topologies. The prior was trained to understand the granularity of peptides and to design amino acids for filling the masked positions within a peptide. PepINVENT coupled with reinforcement learning enables the goal-oriented design of peptides using its chemistry-informed generative capabilities. This study demonstrates PepINVENT's ability to explore the peptide space with unique and novel designs, and its capacity for property optimization in the context of therapeutically relevant peptides. Our tool can be employed for multi-parameter learning objectives, peptidomimetics, lead optimization, and variety of other tasks within the peptide domain.

q-bio.BM↗

arXiv2024

Enhancing Uncertainty Quantification in Drug Discovery with Censored Regression Labels

In the early stages of drug discovery, decisions regarding which experiments to pursue can be influenced by computational models. These decisions are critical due to the time-consuming and expensive nature of the experiments. Therefore, it is becoming essential to accurately quantify the uncertainty in machine learning predictions, such that resources can be used optimally and trust in the models improves. While computational methods for drug discovery often suffer from limited data and sparse experimental observations, additional information can exist in the form of censored labels that provide thresholds rather than precise values of observations. However, the standard approaches that quantify uncertainty in machine learning cannot fully utilize censored labels. In this work, we adapt ensemble-based, Bayesian, and Gaussian models with tools to learn from censored labels by using the Tobit model from survival analysis. Our results demonstrate that despite the partial information available in censored labels, they are essential to accurately and reliably model the real pharmaceutical setting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Navigating the Maize: Cyclic and conditional computational graphs for molecular simulation

Many computational chemistry and molecular simulation workflows can be expressed as graphs. This abstraction is useful to modularize and potentially reuse existing components, as well as provide parallelization and ease reproducibility. Existing tools represent the computation as a directed acyclic graph (DAG), thus allowing efficient execution by parallelization of concurrent branches. These systems can, however, generally not express cyclic and conditional workflows. We therefore developed Maize, a workflow manager for cyclic and conditional graphs based on the principles of flow-based programming. By running each node of the graph concurrently in separate processes and allowing communication at any time through dedicated inter-node channels, arbitrary graph structures can be executed. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the tool on a dynamic active learning task in computational drug design, involving the use of a small molecule generative model and an associated scoring system, and on a reactivity prediction pipeline using quantum-chemistry and semiempirical approaches.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2024

Achieving Well-Informed Decision-Making in Drug Discovery: A Comprehensive Calibration Study using Neural Network-Based Structure-Activity Models

In the drug discovery process, where experiments can be costly and time-consuming, computational models that predict drug-target interactions are valuable tools to accelerate the development of new therapeutic agents. Estimating the uncertainty inherent in these neural network predictions provides valuable information that facilitates optimal decision-making when risk assessment is crucial. However, such models can be poorly calibrated, which results in unreliable uncertainty estimates that do not reflect the true predictive uncertainty. In this study, we compare different metrics, including accuracy and calibration scores, used for model hyperparameter tuning to investigate which model selection strategy achieves well-calibrated models. Furthermore, we propose to use a computationally efficient Bayesian uncertainty estimation method named Bayesian Linear Probing (BLP), which generates Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) trajectories to obtain samples for the parameters of a Bayesian Logistic Regression fitted to the hidden layer of the baseline neural network. We report that BLP improves model calibration and achieves the performance of common uncertainty quantification methods by combining the benefits of uncertainty estimation and probability calibration methods. Finally, we show that combining post hoc calibration method with well-performing uncertainty quantification approaches can boost model accuracy and calibration.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Utilizing Reinforcement Learning for de novo Drug Design

Deep learning-based approaches for generating novel drug molecules with specific properties have gained a lot of interest in the last few years. Recent studies have demonstrated promising performance for string-based generation of novel molecules utilizing reinforcement learning. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for using reinforcement learning for de novo drug design, wherein we systematically study various on- and off-policy reinforcement learning algorithms and replay buffers to learn an RNN-based policy to generate novel molecules predicted to be active against the dopamine receptor DRD2. Our findings suggest that it is advantageous to use at least both top-scoring and low-scoring molecules for updating the policy when structural diversity is essential. Using all generated molecules at an iteration seems to enhance performance stability for on-policy algorithms. In addition, when replaying high, intermediate, and low-scoring molecules, off-policy algorithms display the potential of improving the structural diversity and number of active molecules generated, but possibly at the cost of a longer exploration phase. Our work provides an open-source framework enabling researchers to investigate various reinforcement learning methods for de novo drug design.

q-bio.BM↗

arXiv2023

Autonomous Drug Design with Multi-Armed Bandits

Recent developments in artificial intelligence and automation support a new drug design paradigm: autonomous drug design. Under this paradigm, generative models can provide suggestions on thousands of molecules with specific properties, and automated laboratories can potentially make, test and analyze molecules with minimal human supervision. However, since still only a limited number of molecules can be synthesized and tested, an obvious challenge is how to efficiently select among provided suggestions in a closed-loop system. We formulate this task as a stochastic multi-armed bandit problem with multiple plays, volatile arms and similarity information. To solve this task, we adapt previous work on multi-armed bandits to this setting, and compare our solution with random sampling, greedy selection and decaying-epsilon-greedy selection strategies. According to our simulation results, our approach has the potential to perform better exploration and exploitation of the chemical space for autonomous drug design.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Industry-Scale Orchestrated Federated Learning for Drug Discovery

To apply federated learning to drug discovery we developed a novel platform in the context of European Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) project MELLODDY (grant n°831472), which was comprised of 10 pharmaceutical companies, academic research labs, large industrial companies and startups. The MELLODDY platform was the first industry-scale platform to enable the creation of a global federated model for drug discovery without sharing the confidential data sets of the individual partners. The federated model was trained on the platform by aggregating the gradients of all contributing partners in a cryptographic, secure way following each training iteration. The platform was deployed on an Amazon Web Services (AWS) multi-account architecture running Kubernetes clusters in private subnets. Organisationally, the roles of the different partners were codified as different rights and permissions on the platform and administrated in a decentralized way. The MELLODDY platform generated new scientific discoveries which are described in a companion paper.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Understanding the Performance of Knowledge Graph Embeddings in Drug Discovery

Knowledge Graphs (KG) and associated Knowledge Graph Embedding (KGE) models have recently begun to be explored in the context of drug discovery and have the potential to assist in key challenges such as target identification. In the drug discovery domain, KGs can be employed as part of a process which can result in lab-based experiments being performed, or impact on other decisions, incurring significant time and financial costs and most importantly, ultimately influencing patient healthcare. For KGE models to have impact in this domain, a better understanding of not only of performance, but also the various factors which determine it, is required. In this study we investigate, over the course of many thousands of experiments, the predictive performance of five KGE models on two public drug discovery-oriented KGs. Our goal is not to focus on the best overall model or configuration, instead we take a deeper look at how performance can be affected by changes in the training setup, choice of hyperparameters, model parameter initialisation seed and different splits of the datasets. Our results highlight that these factors have significant impact on performance and can even affect the ranking of models. Indeed these factors should be reported along with model architectures to ensure complete reproducibility and fair comparisons of future work, and we argue this is critical for the acceptance of use, and impact of KGEs in a biomedical setting.

q-bio.BM↗