arXiv subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen.
This paper discusses the mathematical representation of an empirically observed phenomenon, referred to as Incremental Similarity. We discuss this feature from the viewpoint of stochastic processes and present a variety of non-trivial examples, including those that are of relevance for turbulence modelling.
We introduce the notion of relative volatility/intermittency and demonstrate how relative volatility statistics can be used to estimate consistently the temporal variation of volatility/intermittency when the data of interest are generated by a non-semimartingale, or a Brownian semistationary process in particular. This estimation method is motivated by the assessment of relative energy dissipation in empirical data of turbulence, but it is also applicable in other areas. We develop a probabilistic asymptotic theory for realised relative power variations of Brownian semistationary processes, and introduce inference methods based on the theory. We also discuss how to extend the asymptotic theory to other classes of processes exhibiting stochastic volatility/intermittency. As an empirical application, we study relative energy dissipation in data of atmospheric turbulence.
In the present paper we study selfdecomposability of random fields, as defined directly rather than in terms of finite-dimensional distributions. The main tools in our analysis are the master Lévy measure and the associated Lévy-Itô representation. We give the dilation criterion for selfdecomposability analogous to the classical one. Next, we give necessary and sufficient conditions (in terms of the kernel functions) for a Volterra field driven by a Lévy basis to be selfdecomposable. In this context we also study the so-called Urbanik classes of random fields. We follow this with the study of existence and selfdecomposability of integrated Volterra fields. Finally, we introduce infinitely divisible field-valued Lévy processes, give the Lévy-Itô representation associated with them and study stochastic integration with respect to such processes. We provide examples in the form of Lévy semistationary processes with a Gamma kernel and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.
This paper introduces the class of volatility modulated Lévy-driven Volterra (VMLV) processes and their important subclass of Lévy semistationary (LSS) processes as a new framework for modelling energy spot prices. The main modelling idea consists of four principles: First, deseasonalised spot prices can be modelled directly in stationarity. Second, stochastic volatility is regarded as a key factor for modelling energy spot prices. Third, the model allows for the possibility of jumps and extreme spikes and, lastly, it features great flexibility in terms of modelling the autocorrelation structure and the Samuelson effect. We provide a detailed analysis of the probabilistic properties of VMLV processes and show how they can capture many stylised facts of energy markets. Further, we derive forward prices based on our new spot price models and discuss option pricing. An empirical example based on electricity spot prices from the European Energy Exchange confirms the practical relevance of our new modelling framework.
This paper generalizes the integration theory for volatility modulated Brownian-driven Volterra processes onto the space G* of Potthoff-Timpel distributions. Sufficient conditions for integrability of generalized processes are given, regularity results and properties of the integral are discussed. We introduce a new volatility modulation method through the Wick product and discuss its relation to the pointwise-multiplied volatility model.
Ambit stochastics is the name for the theory and applications of ambit fields and ambit processes and constitutes a new research area in stochastics for tempo-spatial phenomena. This paper gives an overview of the main findings in ambit stochastics up to date and establishes new results on general properties of ambit fields. Moreover, it develops the concept of tempo-spatial stochastic volatility/intermittency within ambit fields. Various types of volatility modulation ranging from stochastic scaling of the amplitude, to stochastic time change and extended subordination of random measures and to probability and Lévy mixing of volatility/intensity parameters will be developed. Important examples for concrete model specifications within the class of ambit fields are given.
This papers develops a stochastic integration theory with respect to volatility modulated Lévy-driven Volterra (VMLV) processes. It extends recent results in the literature to allow for stochastic volatility and pure jump processes in the integrator. The new integration operator is based on Malliavin calculus and describes an anticipative integral. Fundamental properties of the integral are derived and important applications are given.
In this paper we study the asymptotic behaviour of power and multipower variations of processes $Y$:\[Y_t=\int_{-\in fty}^tg(t-s)σ_sW(\mathrm{d}s)+Z_t,\] where $g:(0,\infty)\rightarrow\mathbb{R}$ is deterministic, $σ>0$ is a random process, $W$ is the stochastic Wiener measure and $Z$ is a stochastic process in the nature of a drift term. Processes of this type serve, in particular, to model data of velocity increments of a fluid in a turbulence regime with spot intermittency $σ$. The purpose of this paper is to determine the probabilistic limit behaviour of the (multi)power variations of $Y$ as a basis for studying properties of the intermittency process $σ$. Notably the processes $Y$ are in general not of the semimartingale kind and the established theory of multipower variation for semimartingales does not suffice for deriving the limit properties. As a key tool for the results, a general central limit theorem for triangular Gaussian schemes is formulated and proved. Examples and an application to the realised variance ratio are given.
The question of existence and properties of stationary solutions to Langevin equations driven by noise processes with stationary increments is discussed, with particular focus on noise processes of pseudo-moving-average type. On account of the Wold-Karhunen decomposition theorem, such solutions are, in principle, representable as a moving average (plus a drift-like term) but the kernel in the moving average is generally not available in explicit form. A class of cases is determined where an explicit expression of the kernel can be given, and this is used to obtain information on the asymptotic behavior of the associated autocorrelation functions, both for small and large lags. Applications to Gaussian- and Lévy-driven fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes are presented. A Fubini theorem for Lévy bases is established as an element in the derivations.
We investigate the relation of the semigroup probability density of an infinite activity Lévy process to the corresponding Lévy density. For subordinators, we provide three methods to compute the former from the latter. The first method is based on approximating compound Poisson distributions, the second method uses convolution integrals of the upper tail integral of the Lévy measure and the third method uses the analytic continuation of the Lévy density to a complex cone and contour integration. As a by-product, we investigate the smoothness of the semigroup density in time. Several concrete examples illustrate the three methods and our results.
In this paper we provide an asymptotic analysis of generalised bipower measures of the variation of price processes in financial economics. These measures encompass the usual quadratic variation, power variation and bipower variations which have been highlighted in recent years in financial econometrics. The analysis is carried out under some rather general Brownian semimartingale assumptions, which allow for standard leverage effects.
We develop the general quantum stochastic approach to the description of quantum measurements continuous in time. The framework, that we introduce, encompasses the various particular models for continuous-time measurements condsidered previously in the physical and the mathematical literature.