arXiv subjects

Oleg V. Pavlov

Publications and source records attributed to Oleg V. Pavlov.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Introducing Feedback Thinking and System Dynamics Modeling in Economics Education

System dynamics is a methodology that is widely used in many academic fields. It explains the behavior of social and economic systems with models that capture complex causality and feedback effects. This 'practice paper' discusses the opportunities and barriers for introducing feedback thinking and system dynamics models in the economics curriculum. We start by providing a pricing feedback model that illustrates some of the benefits that system dynamics can provide in enhancing economics education. Then we summarize the experiences of each of the authors in teaching system dynamics on economics educational programs. This includes different approaches to teaching economics with system dynamics that depend on the learning objectives, the preparation of students, and the background of the instructor. We also develop a four-level course hierarchy for using system dynamics in economics teaching. We then point out the tradeoffs that instructors must consider as they introduce new pedagogies for delivering economics material. Finally, we provide some concluding comments with some suggestions for future work. The expected audiences for this paper are instructors as well as graduate students who are considering academia as a profession.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Enhancing Economic Literacy through Causal Diagrams

A literacy-targeted approach to economic instruction draws on insights from cognitive science. It highlights that students process complex economic information by constructing and modifying schemas that represent economic material. Following this approach, we developed a set of instructional activities centered around causal diagrams that promote a deeper understanding of economic topics beyond the traditional lecture-based methods. Our results show that structural debriefing activities can be used effectively to introduce students to the causal diagrams that explain key economic relationships in the national income model, government-purchases multiplier and tax multiplier.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Tuition too high? Blame competition

We develop a feedback theory that includes reinforcing and balancing feedback effects that emerge when colleges compete for reputation, applicants, and tuition revenue. The feedback theory is replicated in a formal duopoly model consisting of two competing colleges. An independent ranking entity determines the relative order of the colleges. College applicants choose between the two colleges based on the rankings and the financial aid offered by the colleges. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that competition lowers prices and benefits consumers, our simulations show that competition between academic institutions for resources and reputation leads to tuition escalation that negatively affects students and their families. Four of the five scenarios -- rankings, a capital campaign, facilities improvements, and an excellence campaign -- increase college tuition, institutional debt, and expenditures per student; only the scenario of ignoring the rankings decreases these measures. By referring to the feedback structure of academic competition, the article makes several recommendations for controlling tuition inflation. This article contributes to the literature on the economics of higher education and illustrates the value of feedback economics in developing economic theory.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Artificial intelligence and the transformation of higher education institutions

Artificial intelligence (AI) advances and the rapid adoption of generative AI tools like ChatGPT present new opportunities and challenges for higher education. While substantial literature discusses AI in higher education, there is a lack of a systemic approach that captures a holistic view of the AI transformation of higher education institutions (HEIs). To fill this gap, this article, taking a complex systems approach, develops a causal loop diagram (CLD) to map the causal feedback mechanisms of AI transformation in a typical HEI. Our model accounts for the forces that drive the AI transformation and the consequences of the AI transformation on value creation in a typical HEI. The article identifies and analyzes several reinforcing and balancing feedback loops, showing how, motivated by AI technology advances, the HEI invests in AI to improve student learning, research, and administration. The HEI must take measures to deal with academic integrity problems and adapt to changes in available jobs due to AI, emphasizing AI-complementary skills for its students. However, HEIs face a competitive threat and several policy traps that may lead to decline. HEI leaders need to become systems thinkers to manage the complexity of the AI transformation and benefit from the AI feedback loops while avoiding the associated pitfalls. We also discuss long-term scenarios, the notion of HEIs influencing the direction of AI, and directions for future research on AI transformation.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Economic Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: A Simulation Feedback Model

This chapter develops a feedback economic model that explains the rise of the Sicilian mafia in the 19th century. Grounded in economic theory, the model incorporates causal relationships between the mafia activities, predation, law enforcement, and the profitability of local businesses. Using computational experiments with the model, we explore how different factors and feedback effects impact the mafia activity levels. The model explains important historical observations such as the emergence of the mafia in wealthier regions and its absence in the poorer districts despite the greater levels of banditry.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Computing Economic Chaos

Existence theory in economics is usually in real domains such as the findings of chaotic trajectories in models of economic growth, tatonnement, or overlapping generations models. Computational examples, however, sometimes converge rapidly to cyclic orbits when in theory they should be nonperiodic almost surely. We explain this anomaly as the result of digital approximation and conclude that both theoretical and numerical behavior can still illuminate essential features of the real data.

econ.GN↗