arXiv subjects

Olga Klopp

Publications and source records attributed to Olga Klopp.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Density Estimation on Compact Manifolds under Intrinsic Spectral Block Variation

We introduce an intrinsic spectral sparsity model for nonparametric density estimation on compact connected Riemannian manifolds. Instead of penalizing coefficients in an arbitrarily chosen Laplace--Beltrami eigenbasis, we group each complete eigenspace and measure the Hilbert norm of its spectral component. The resulting block-variation space is basis independent and isometry invariant. We establish its structural, atomic, and nonlinear approximation properties and clarify its relation to Sobolev, Besov, and coefficientwise spectral $\ell^1$ classes. We then construct a coordinate-free block-shrinkage estimator and prove a nonasymptotic signal-dependent $L^2$-oracle inequality that adapts to the unknown set of detectable eigenspaces. Under polynomial spectral growth, the risk theory separates the number of spectral blocks from their multiplicities and exhibits two regimes: one driven by a single high-dimensional eigenspace and the other by cumulative spectral complexity. Under matching spectral-growth and nondegeneracy assumptions, corresponding minimax lower bounds show that this multiplicity dependence is intrinsic, with sharp consequences for spheres and the rotation group $SO(3)$. Finally, we develop a positive, normalized, block-penalized exponential spectral sieve for log-densities and derive likelihood oracle inequalities together with expected Kullback--Leibler, Hellinger, and $L^2$ risk bounds. The resulting framework provides a geometry-respecting theory of sparse density estimation that remains invariant under changes of eigenbasis.

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arXiv2026

Near-optimal node-private community estimation in polynomial-time

In this paper, we resolve an open question of Klopp & Zadik (2026) by providing a high-probability polynomial-time, node-private algorithm which nearly matches the performance of their exponential-time node-private algorithm for exact recovery in stochastic block models. Our result involves an explicitly constructed Lipschitz surrogate for the penalized likelihood function, as well as a carefully devised accept-reject algorithm that samples community labels from the corresponding exponential mechanism in polynomial-time. We rigorously analyze the privacy, runtime, and utility of our proposed algorithm, showing that even when the number of communities K grows logarithmically with the number of nodes n, we can achieve the minimax rates for exact recovery with the privacy parameter epsilon growing as log(n), thus matching known lower bounds on the cost of privacy for this setting.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Estimation of Linear Functionals in Multilayer Panels under Staggered Adoption

We study the estimation of bilinear forms from noisy, partially observed multilayer data. The signal follows a Tucker2 model, with shared unit and time factors across tensor layers and slice-specific cores. The missingness pattern is structured and motivated by staggered adoption designs, which are common in causal inference and related applications. We first analyze the four-block missingness pattern, the basic building block for general staggered adoption, and propose a spectral algorithm that pools information across layers and targets the functional directly. We prove a non-asymptotic mean squared error bound that exhibits a phase transition in the number of layers, showing when pooling improves estimation, and match it with a local minimax lower bound up to constants when ranks and logarithmic factors are treated as constant-order quantities. We then extend the construction to general staggered adoption designs via an anchored four-block reduction, and derive analogous theoretical guarantees. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings using synthetic and real-world data on Castle Doctrine laws and COVID-19 policies

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arXiv2026

Optimal Estimation of Discrete Multiview Distributions under Heteroskedastic Multinomial Sampling

Multiview latent-variable models provide a fundamental framework for discrete data analysis, with applications to latent structure models, topic models, and mixtures of product distributions. In the discrete setting, the joint distribution of the observed views can be represented as a nonnegative low-rank tensor, which we call a multiview density tensor. We study the problem of estimating this tensor from multinomial count data. A key challenge is that multinomial sampling induces heteroskedastic and dependent noise, so the difficulty of estimation depends not only on the ambient dimensions and rank, but also on how the probability mass is distributed across different locations of sample space. We propose a general scaling framework for density tensor estimation under multinomial sampling. This framework leads to a spectral estimator for which we prove a Frobenius-norm upper bound that directly handles heteroskedasticity and negative dependence. For the original multiview model, we obtain fiber-mass-dependent Frobenius upper bounds and minimax lower bounds showing that this dependence is unavoidable. Under $\ell_1$ loss, we develop both oracle and feasible data-driven estimators based on the same scaling principle, establish minimax lower bounds, and show near-optimality for the oracle rule at fixed rank and for slice normalization under bounded slice-to-fiber imbalance. Simulations support the theory and demonstrate the robustness of the proposed methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Node-Private Community Detection in Stochastic Block Models

We study community detection in stochastic block models under pure node-level differential privacy, a stringent notion that protects the participation of an individual together with all of their incident edges. This setting is substantially more challenging than edge-private community detection, since modifying a single node can affect linearly many observations. On the algorithmic side, we analyze a node-private estimator based on the exponential mechanism combined with an extension lemma, and show that exact recovery remains achievable. In the standard sparse regime with logarithmic average degree and a fixed number of communities, our results imply that a logarithmic privacy budget suffices to obtain nontrivial recovery guarantees. On the lower bound side, we show that this logarithmic scaling is in fact unavoidable: any pure node-private method must fail to achieve polynomially small exact-recovery error, or polynomially small expected mismatch, unless the privacy budget is at least of this order. Moreover, in the regime of super-logarithmic privacy budgets, our upper and lower bounds yield a matching two-term characterization of the minimax risk, with one term governed by the non-private statistical signal and the other by the privacy budget; these match up to universal constants in the exponents. Taken together, our results identify an inherent logarithmic privacy cost in node-private community detection, absent under edge differential privacy, and provide a precise rate-level characterization of the tradeoff between node privacy and SBM recovery.

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arXiv2026

Semi-Supervised Learning on Graphs using Graph Neural Networks

Graph neural networks (GNNs) work remarkably well in semi-supervised node regression, yet a rigorous theory explaining when and why they succeed remains lacking. To address this gap, we study an aggregate-and-readout model that encompasses several common message passing architectures: node features are first propagated over the graph then mapped to responses via a nonlinear function. For least-squares estimation over GNNs with linear graph convolutions and a deep ReLU readout, we prove a sharp non-asymptotic risk bound that separates approximation, stochastic, and optimization errors. The bound makes explicit how performance scales with the fraction of labeled nodes and graph-induced dependence. Approximation guarantees are further derived for graph-smoothing followed by smooth nonlinear readouts, yielding convergence rates that recover classical nonparametric behavior under full supervision while characterizing performance when labels are scarce. Numerical experiments validate our theory, providing a systematic framework for understanding GNN performance and limitations.

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arXiv2025

Joint learning of a network of linear dynamical systems via total variation penalization

We consider the problem of joint estimation of the parameters of $m$ linear dynamical systems, given access to single realizations of their respective trajectories, each of length $T$. The linear systems are assumed to reside on the nodes of an undirected and connected graph $G = ([m], \mathcal{E})$, and the system matrices are assumed to either vary smoothly or exhibit small number of ``jumps'' across the edges. We consider a total variation penalized least-squares estimator and derive non-asymptotic bounds on the mean squared error (MSE) which hold with high probability. In particular, the bounds imply for certain choices of well connected $G$ that the MSE goes to zero as $m$ increases, even when $T$ is constant. The theoretical results are supported by extensive experiments on synthetic and real data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Revisit CP Tensor Decomposition: Statistical Optimality and Fast Convergence

Canonical Polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition is a fundamental technique for analyzing high-dimensional tensor data. While the Alternating Least Squares (ALS) algorithm is widely used for computing CP decomposition due to its simplicity and empirical success, its theoretical foundation, particularly regarding statistical optimality and convergence behavior, remain underdeveloped, especially in noisy, non-orthogonal, and higher-rank settings. In this work, we revisit CP tensor decomposition from a statistical perspective and provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of ALS under a signal-plus-noise model. We establish non-asymptotic, minimax-optimal error bounds for tensors of general order, dimensions, and rank, assuming suitable initialization. To enable such initialization, we propose Tucker-based Approximation with Simultaneous Diagonalization (TASD), a robust method that improves stability and accuracy in noisy regimes. Combined with ALS, TASD yields a statistically consistent estimator. We further analyze the convergence dynamics of ALS, identifying a two-phase pattern-initial quadratic convergence followed by linear refinement. We further show that in the rank-one setting, ALS with an appropriately chosen initialization attains optimal error within just one or two iterations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Low-Rank Graphon Estimation: Theory and Applications to Graphon Games

We study low-rank estimation of an unknown sparse graphon from sampled network data under operator-norm loss, motivated by targeted interventions in graphon games. Starting from the observed adjacency matrix, we construct low-rank surrogates by singular value thresholding and, for smooth graphons, by block averaging followed by thresholding. We obtain non-asymptotic bounds on both the operator-norm error and the rank of the resulting estimator for stochastic block model, H\"older, and analytic graphons, and we complement these results with minimax lower bounds showing that the rates are essentially sharp for these classes. Our analysis highlights that low rank is valuable here primarily for computation: while it does not improve the minimax operator-norm rate, it yields operator-norm accurate surrogates with substantially smaller rank. We then apply these estimators to linear-quadratic graphon games and derive non-asymptotic stability bounds showing that the welfare loss incurred by using an estimated graphon is controlled by the operator-norm perturbation. This yields near-optimal guarantees for targeted interventions computed from the estimated graphon, together with substantial computational savings. For zero baseline heterogeneity and under a spectral-gap condition, we also establish matching lower bounds for intervention regret. Numerical experiments illustrate the trade-off between statistical accuracy, retained rank, and runtime.

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arXiv2024

Understanding the Effect of GCN Convolutions in Regression Tasks

Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have become a pivotal method in machine learning for modeling functions over graphs. Despite their widespread success across various applications, their statistical properties (e.g., consistency, convergence rates) remain ill-characterized. To begin addressing this knowledge gap, we consider networks for which the graph structure implies that neighboring nodes exhibit similar signals and provide statistical theory for the impact of convolution operators. Focusing on estimators based solely on neighborhood aggregation, we examine how two common convolutions - the original GCN and GraphSAGE convolutions - affect the learning error as a function of the neighborhood topology and the number of convolutional layers. We explicitly characterize the bias-variance type trade-off incurred by GCNs as a function of the neighborhood size and identify specific graph topologies where convolution operators are less effective. Our theoretical findings are corroborated by synthetic experiments, and provide a start to a deeper quantitative understanding of convolutional effects in GCNs for offering rigorous guidelines for practitioners.

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arXiv2024

One-Bit Total Variation Denoising over Networks with Applications to Partially Observed Epidemics

This paper introduces a novel approach for epidemic nowcasting and forecasting over networks using total variation (TV) denoising, a method inspired by classical signal processing techniques. Considering a network that models a population as a set of $n$ nodes characterized by their infection statuses $Y_i$ and that represents contacts as edges, we prove the consistency of graph-TV denoising for estimating the underlying infection probabilities $\{p_i\}_{ i \in \{1,\cdots, n\}}$ in the presence of Bernoulli noise. Our results provide an important extension of existing bounds derived in the Gaussian case to the study of binary variables -- an approach hereafter referred to as one-bit total variation denoising. The methodology is further extended to handle incomplete observations, thereby expanding its relevance to various real-world situations where observations over the full graph may not be accessible. Focusing on the context of epidemics, we establish that one-bit total variation denoising enhances both nowcasting and forecasting accuracy in networks, as further evidenced by comprehensive numerical experiments and two real-world examples. The contributions of this paper lie in its theoretical developments, particularly in addressing the incomplete data case, thereby paving the way for more precise epidemic modelling and enhanced surveillance strategies in practical settings.

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arXiv2024

Generalized multi-view model: Adaptive density estimation under low-rank constraints

We study the problem of bivariate discrete or continuous probability density estimation under low-rank constraints.For discrete distributions, we assume that the two-dimensional array to estimate is a low-rank probability matrix. In the continuous case, we assume that the density with respect to the Lebesgue measure satisfies a generalized multi-view model, meaning that it is $\beta$-H{\"o}lder and can be decomposed as a sum of $K$ components, each of which is a product of one-dimensional functions. In both settings, we propose estimators that achieve, up to logarithmic factors, the minimax optimal convergence rates under such low-rank constraints. In the discrete case, the proposed estimator is adaptive to the rank $K$. In the continuous case, our estimator converges with the $L_1$ rate $\min((K/n)^{\beta/(2\beta+1)}, n^{-\beta/(2\beta+2)})$ up to logarithmic factors, and it is adaptive to the unknown support as well as to the smoothness $\beta$ and to the unknown number of separable components $K$. We present efficient algorithms for computing our estimators.

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arXiv2023

Change point detection in low-rank VAR processes

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in multivariate time series analysis for describing the short-time dynamics of the data. The reduced-rank VAR models are of particular interest when dealing with high-dimensional and highly correlated time series. Many results for these models are based on the stationarity assumption that does not hold in several applications when the data exhibits structural breaks. We consider a low-rank piecewise stationary VAR model with possible changes in the transition matrix of the observed process. We develop a new test of presence of a change-point in the transition matrix and show its minimax optimality with respect to the dimension and the sample size. Our two-step change-point detection strategy is based on the construction of estimators for the transition matrices and using them in a penalized version of the likelihood ratio test statistic. The effectiveness of the proposed procedure is illustrated on synthetic data.

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arXiv2021

Optimality of variational inference for stochastic block model with missing links

Variational methods are extremely popular in the analysis of network data. Statistical guarantees obtained for these methods typically provide asymptotic normality for the problem of estimation of global model parameters under the stochastic block model. In the present work, we consider the case of networks with missing links that is important in application and show that the variational approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator converges at the minimax rate. This provides the first minimax optimal and tractable estimator for the problem of parameter estimation for the stochastic block model with missing links. We complement our results with numerical studies of simulated and real networks, which confirm the advantages of this estimator over current methods.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Assigning Topics to Documents by Successive Projections

Topic models provide a useful tool to organize and understand the structure of large corpora of text documents, in particular, to discover hidden thematic structure. Clustering documents from big unstructured corpora into topics is an important task in various areas, such as image analysis, e-commerce, social networks, population genetics. A common approach to topic modeling is to associate each topic with a probability distribution on the dictionary of words and to consider each document as a mixture of topics. Since the number of topics is typically substantially smaller than the size of the corpus and of the dictionary, the methods of topic modeling can lead to a dramatic dimension reduction. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating topics distribution for each document in the given corpus, that is, we focus on the clustering aspect of the problem. We introduce an algorithm that we call Successive Projection Overlapping Clustering (SPOC) inspired by the Successive Projection Algorithm for separable matrix factorization. This algorithm is simple to implement and computationally fast. We establish theoretical guarantees on the performance of the SPOC algorithm, in particular, near matching minimax upper and lower bounds on its estimation risk. We also propose a new method that estimates the number of topics. We complement our theoretical results with a numerical study on synthetic and semi-synthetic data to analyze the performance of this new algorithm in practice. One of the conclusions is that the error of the algorithm grows at most logarithmically with the size of the dictionary, in contrast to what one observes for Latent Dirichlet Allocation.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Change-Point Detection in Dynamic Networks with Missing Links

Structural changes occur in dynamic networks quite frequently and its detection is an important question in many situations such as fraud detection or cybersecurity. Real-life networks are often incompletely observed due to individual non-response or network size. In the present paper we consider the problem of change-point detection at a temporal sequence of partially observed networks. The goal is to test whether there is a change in the network parameters. Our approach is based on the Matrix CUSUM test statistic and allows growing size of networks. We show that the proposed test is minimax optimal and robust to missing links. We also demonstrate the good behavior of our approach in practice through simulation study and a real-data application.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Sparse Networks with Missing Observations

Estimating the matrix of connections probabilities is one of the key questions when studying sparse networks. In this work, we consider networks generated under the sparse graphon model and the in-homogeneous random graph model with missing observations. Using the Stochastic Block Model as a parametric proxy, we bound the risk of the maximum likelihood estimator of network connections probabilities , and show that it is minimax optimal. When risk is measured in Frobenius norm, no estimator running in polynomial time has been shown to attain the minimax optimal rate of convergence for this problem. Thus, maximum likelihood estimation is of particular interest as computationally efficient approximations to it have been proposed in the literature and are often used in practice.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Outliers Detection in Networks with Missing Links

Outliers arise in networks due to different reasons such as fraudulent behavior of malicious users or default in measurement instruments and can significantly impair network analyses. In addition, real-life networks are likely to be incompletely observed, with missing links due to individual non-response or machine failures. Identifying outliers in the presence of missing links is therefore a crucial problem in network analysis. In this work, we introduce a new algorithm to detect outliers in a network that simultaneously predicts the missing links. The proposed method is statistically sound: we prove that, under fairly general assumptions, our algorithm exactly detects the outliers, and achieves the best known error for the prediction of missing links with polynomial computation cost. It is also computationally efficient: we prove sub-linear convergence of our algorithm. We provide a simulation study which demonstrates the good behavior of the algorithm in terms of outliers detection and prediction of the missing links. We also illustrate the method with an application in epidemiology, and with the analysis of a political Twitter network. The method is freely available as an R package on the Comprehensive R Archive Network.

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