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Olga V. Demler

Publications and source records attributed to Olga V. Demler.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

A Latent ODE Approach to Spatiotemporal Modeling of Cine Cardiac MRI

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) captures rich spatiotemporal information about ventricular structure and motion, but conventional risk models use only a few image-derived indices from selected cardiac phases. We present a latent dynamical model that encodes bi-ventricular anatomy and full-cycle cine motion as a continuous latent trajectory, using heart-rate-aware neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) dynamics and a graph-based mesh autoencoder to reconstruct anatomically consistent 3D+t ventricular motion. A covariate-conditioned prior defines the expected end-diastolic latent state, and a Cox proportional hazards model tests whether deviations from this prior predict incident heart failure. We studied 72,386 UK Biobank participants without baseline cardiovascular disease, including 367 incident heart failure events. In a held-out evaluation subset, adding the latent score to refitted pooled cohort equations improved the stratified C-index from 0.704 to 0.785, compared with 0.764 for seven established cardiac markers. Compared with non-graph and non-ODE approaches, the proposed model gave the best trade-off between reconstruction fidelity, generative realism, and downstream prognostic performance. These results suggest that continuous full-cycle modeling of ventricular motion provides informative cardiac phenotypes beyond conventional CMR summaries, while external validation in more representative patient cohorts is required before clinical risk-prediction use.

cs.AI

Non-Transitivity of the Win Ratio and the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (AUC): a case for evaluating the strength of stochastic comparisons

The win ratio (WR) is a novel statistic used in randomized controlled trials that can account for hierarchies within event outcomes. In this paper we report and study the long-run non-transitive behavior of the win ratio and the closely related Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (AUC) and argue that their transitivity cannot be taken for granted. Crucially, traditional within-group statistics (i.e., comparison of means) are always transitive, while the WR can detect non-transitivity. Non-transitivity provides valuable information on the stochastic relationship between two treatment groups, which should be tested and reported. We specify the necessary conditions for transitivity, the sufficient conditions for non-transitivity, and demonstrate non-transitivity in a real-life large randomized controlled trial for the WR of time-to-death. Our results can be used to rule out or evaluate the possibility of non-transitivity and show the importance of studying the strength of stochastic relationships.

stat.ME

Quantitative Comparison of Statistical Methods for Analyzing Human Metabolomics Data

Background. Emerging technologies now allow for mass spectrometry based profiling of up to thousands of small molecule metabolites (metabolomics) in an increasing number of biosamples. While offering great promise for revealing insight into the pathogenesis of human disease, standard approaches have yet to be established for statistically analyzing increasingly complex, high-dimensional human metabolomics data in relation to clinical phenotypes including disease outcomes. To determine optimal statistical approaches for metabolomics analysis, we sought to formally compare traditional statistical as well as newer statistical learning methods across a range of metabolomics dataset types. Results. In simulated and experimental metabolomics data derived from large population-based human cohorts, we observed that with an increasing number of study subjects, univariate compared to multivariate methods resulted in a higher false discovery rate due to substantial correlations among metabolites. In scenarios wherein the number of assayed metabolites increases, as in the application of nontargeted versus targeted metabolomics measures, multivariate methods performed especially favorably across a range of statistical operating characteristics. In nontargeted metabolomics datasets that included thousands of metabolite measures, sparse multivariate models demonstrated greater selectivity and lower potential for spurious relationships. Conclusion. When the number of metabolites was similar to or exceeded the number of study subjects, as is common with nontargeted metabolomics analysis of relatively small sized cohorts, sparse multivariate models exhibited the most robust statistical power with more consistent results. These findings have important implications for the analysis of metabolomics studies of human disease.

q-bio.QM