Oliver Chalkley | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Quantifying System-Level Harms from AI Adoption in Complex Sociotechnical Systems

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly integrated into complex sociotechnical systems, including Critical National Infrastructure (CNI), where harms emerge from interactions between technical, human, and organisational elements. Yet current AI evaluation remains model-centric, offering little insight into how observed behaviours might translate into system-level risk. We propose a framework that links structured hazard analysis, component-level testing, and probabilistic system modelling to bridge this gap. By providing a traceable pathway from model behaviour to system-level outcomes, the framework enables practitioners to answer the "so what?" of AI failures, quantify their systemic impact, and move toward evidence-based and anticipatory governance of AI in complex systems. Applied to the UK's Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system as an illustrative worked example, we derive AI-driven loss scenarios using Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) and examine adversarial manipulation of LLM-based trading as one such loss scenario. Component-level experiments show that simple adversarial inputs induce measurable behavioural shifts where AI recommendations are followed. Under the component-to-system mapping used here for a financial contagion model, these shifts alter system resilience, increasing bank failures and lowering the threshold at which shocks lead to cascading disruption, particularly under widespread or monopolistic AI adoption.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Scalable Evaluation of the Realism of Synthetic Environmental Augmentations in Images

Evaluation of AI systems often requires synthetic test cases, particularly for rare or safety-critical conditions that are difficult to observe in operational data. Generative AI offers a promising approach for producing such data through controllable image editing, but its usefulness depends on whether the resulting images are sufficiently realistic to support meaningful evaluation. We present a scalable framework for assessing the realism of synthetic image-editing methods and apply it to the task of adding environmental conditions-fog, rain, snow, and nighttime-to car-mounted camera images. Using 40 clear-day images, we compare rule-based augmentation libraries with generative AI image-editing models. Realism is evaluated using two complementary automated metrics: a vision-language model (VLM) jury for perceptual realism assessment, and embedding-based distributional analysis to measure similarity to genuine adverse-condition imagery. Generative AI methods substantially outperform rule-based approaches, with the best generative method achieving approximately 3.6 times the acceptance rate of the best rule-based method. Performance varies across conditions: fog proves easiest to simulate, while nighttime transformations remain challenging. Notably, the VLM jury assigns imperfect acceptance even to real adverse-condition imagery, establishing practical ceilings against which synthetic methods can be judged. By this standard, leading generative methods match or exceed real-image performance for most conditions. These results suggest that modern generative image-editing models can enable scalable generation of realistic adverse-condition imagery for evaluation pipelines. Our framework therefore provides a practical approach for scalable realism evaluation, though validation against human studies remains an important direction for future work.

cs.CV↗