arXiv subjects

Oliver Fuhrer

Publications and source records attributed to Oliver Fuhrer.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Stochastically Perturbed Weights: Ensembles from Deterministic Machine-Learning Weather Models

Machine-learning weather models (MLWMs) now match or outperform operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) at global medium-range forecasting, at far lower inference cost. Many deployed MLWMs are deterministic, producing a single forecast with no estimate of its own uncertainty, whereas a growing family of trained-probabilistic models generate calibrated ensembles directly, at the price of a dedicated training run. We ask instead how much uncertainty can be extracted from a deterministic checkpoint that already exists, without retraining it. Where physical ensembles represent model uncertainty by stochastically perturbing parametrisation tendencies, we perturb the network's raw weight tensors at inference time, a scheme we call stochastically perturbed weights (SPW). We also ask whether it works, where and on which scales to inject the noise, and where it fails. A three-phase ablation across four deterministic backbones, Aurora, GraphCast, SFNO, and AIFS, selects one production baseline per model, benchmarked against the trained-probabilistic AIFS-ENS, FourCastNet 3 and Atlas as well as the operational ECMWF ensemble (IFS-ENS) over 112 initialisation times. At a 240 h (10-day) lead time the SPW ensembles reach continuous ranked probability skill scores (CRPSS) between 0.04 and 0.13 below the best trained-probabilistic baseline, at zero marginal training cost. No injection site works across models: the productive tensor group is architecture-specific, so SPW is at present a tuning procedure rather than a plug-and-play recipe. Its main failure mode is a coherent whole-field offset that overdisperses the domain mean, and restricting the noise to coarse scales or perturbing the initial conditions each repair part of it.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Machine learning is revolutionizing weather forecasting -- the next step is a change in how we work

Following the success of machine learning in producing weather predictions with competitive skill compared to complex traditional systems, this article shifts attention from forecast output to the working practices that make prediction systems possible. We argue that machine learning and recent digital technologies will reshape the forecasting value chain: how models are coded and developed, how observations and Earth-system data are exploited, how data and computing are managed, how systems are verified, and how information is created, evaluated and turned into services. We discuss six non-exhaustive areas in which agentic software engineering, open and compressed data, shared verification workflows, interactive computing and generative methods may make modelling, evaluation and service creation faster, more interactive and more widely accessible. These changes will require weather and climate centres to adapt their infrastructures, data stewardship, trust and quality-assurance frameworks, skills and service delivery while maintaining scientific understanding, operational reliability, human expertise and their public-service role.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM): A unified framework for heterogeneous data integration and forecasting

Foundation models (FMs) for the Earth system learn statistical relationships between physical variables across massive datasets to enable versatile downstream applications through finetuning, separating them from task-specific weather models. Here, we introduce Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM), a fully open model building on the 3D Swin UNet backbone of the pioneering Aurora model. ESFM introduces extensions that increase functionality and foster adoption in climate sciences. First, the encoding scheme and training protocols have been extended to handle diverse datasets, including those containing missing values across all spatio-temporal dimensions such as satellite data, as well as station data, all under one backbone. Axial attention is introduced to capture inter-variable dependencies. As a result ESFM skillfully predicts variables in regions or on pressure levels where no data is present at the initial time, while preserving inter-variable relationships, for example between temperature, pressure, and humidity. Individual variable tokenization enables different sets of variables to be shuffled during training and simplifies the process of building extensions for new downstream tasks. Adaptive layer norm-based ensembles allow for a simple yet effective way to transform deterministic ESFM to a probabilistic FM. We present findings using dense gridded data (ERA5, CMIP6), regionally masked dense data, sparse gridded MODIS satellite data, and station data. Results demonstrate competitive or superior performance relative to state-of-the-art benchmarks. Case studies of Super Typhoon Doksuri (2023) and 2024 sudden stratospheric warming events show accurate positional and magnitude estimations of extreme weather. ESFM retains the strengths of previous foundation models, such as long-term stability, but facilitates application to a variety of downstream tasks.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Building Machine Learning Limited Area Models: Kilometer-Scale Weather Forecasting in Realistic Settings

Machine learning is revolutionizing global weather forecasting, with models that efficiently produce highly accurate forecasts. Apart from global forecasting there is also a large value in high-resolution regional weather forecasts, focusing on accurate simulations of the atmosphere for a limited area. Initial attempts have been made to use machine learning for such limited area scenarios, but these experiments do not consider realistic forecasting settings and do not investigate the many design choices involved. We present a framework for building kilometer-scale machine learning limited area models with boundary conditions imposed through a flexible boundary forcing method. This enables boundary conditions defined either from reanalysis or operational forecast data. Our approach employs specialized graph constructions with rectangular and triangular meshes, along with multi-step rollout training strategies to improve temporal consistency. We perform systematic evaluation of different design choices, including the boundary width, graph construction and boundary forcing integration. Models are evaluated across both a Danish and a Swiss domain, two regions that exhibit different orographical characteristics. Verification is performed against both gridded analysis data and in-situ observations, including a case study for the storm Ciara in February 2020. Both models achieve skillful predictions across a wide range of variables, with our Swiss model outperforming the numerical weather prediction baseline for key surface variables. With their substantially lower computational cost, our findings demonstrate great potential for machine learning limited area models in the future of regional weather forecasting.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Towards Specialized Supercomputers for Climate Sciences: Computational Requirements of the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model

We discuss the computational challenges and requirements for high-resolution climate simulations using the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model (ICON). We define a detailed requirements model for ICON which emphasizes the need for specialized supercomputers to accurately predict climate change impacts and extreme weather events. Based on the requirements model, we outline computational demands for km-scale simulations, and suggests machine learning techniques to enhance model accuracy and efficiency. Our findings aim to guide the design of future supercomputers for advanced climate science.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Earth Virtualization Engines -- A Technical Perspective

Participants of the Berlin Summit on Earth Virtualization Engines (EVEs) discussed ideas and concepts to improve our ability to cope with climate change. EVEs aim to provide interactive and accessible climate simulations and data for a wide range of users. They combine high-resolution physics-based models with machine learning techniques to improve the fidelity, efficiency, and interpretability of climate projections. At their core, EVEs offer a federated data layer that enables simple and fast access to exabyte-sized climate data through simple interfaces. In this article, we summarize the technical challenges and opportunities for developing EVEs, and argue that they are essential for addressing the consequences of climate change.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Productive Performance Engineering for Weather and Climate Modeling with Python

Earth system models are developed with a tight coupling to target hardware, often containing specialized code predicated on processor characteristics. This coupling stems from using imperative languages that hard-code computation schedules and layout. We present a detailed account of optimizing the Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3), improving productivity and performance. By using a declarative Python-embedded stencil domain-specific language and data-centric optimization, we abstract hardware-specific details and define a semi-automated workflow for analyzing and optimizing weather and climate applications. The workflow utilizes both local and full-program optimization, as well as user-guided fine-tuning. To prune the infeasible global optimization space, we automatically utilize repeating code motifs via a novel transfer tuning approach. On the Piz Daint supercomputer, we scale to 2,400 GPUs, achieving speedups of up to 3.92x over the tuned production implementation at a fraction of the original code.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2020

Domain-Specific Multi-Level IR Rewriting for GPU

Traditional compilers operate on a single generic intermediate representation (IR). These IRs are usually low-level and close to machine instructions. As a result, optimizations relying on domain-specific information are either not possible or require complex analysis to recover the missing information. In contrast, multi-level rewriting instantiates a hierarchy of dialects (IRs), lowers programs level-by-level, and performs code transformations at the most suitable level. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach for the weather and climate domain. In particular, we develop a prototype compiler and design stencil- and GPU-specific dialects based on a set of newly introduced design principles. We find that two domain-specific optimizations (500 lines of code) realized on top of LLVM's extensible MLIR compiler infrastructure suffice to outperform state-of-the-art solutions. In essence, multi-level rewriting promises to herald the age of specialized compilers composed from domain- and target-specific dialects implemented on top of a shared infrastructure.

cs.PL↗