arXiv subjects

Oliver Linton

Publications and source records attributed to Oliver Linton.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

High-Dimensional Panel Data Models with Interactive Fixed Effects: Beyond the Linear Case

Modern economic panel data sets are often high-dimensional: they contain information on a wide variety of control variables whose number may even exceed the sample size. Nevertheless, the literature on econometric methods for high-dimensional panels is quite limited. In this paper, we study high-dimensional panel models with interactive fixed effects where the regression function has an additive structure, i.e., each covariate enters the model via an unknown nonlinear component function. We develop estimation methodology and theory in this additive framework which substantially extends previous work on the high-dimensional linear case by Ruecker et al. (2025). In the theoretical part of the paper, we derive the convergence rate of our estimator for both the small-T and the large-T panel case. The theory is complemented by comprehensive Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Identification, Estimation and Inference Based on Structural Error Projection

This paper proposes to project and expand the conditional mean function of the structural error given the regressors in an endogenous regression under consideration. As the projection process is semiparametric, we define this procedure as a semiparametric projection (SP) method to address endogeneity in regression models by internally constructed instrumental variables. The SP method is applicable to many classes of regression models associated with endogeneity, such as linear, nonlinear, and non- and semi-parametric models, and provides a simple and computationally tractable alternative to conventional instrumental variable approaches available from the existing literature. This paper establishes identification conditions and derives the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators. It then proposes a simple LASSO selection method to examine the finite-sample performance of both the proposed method and the established theory by simulated and real data examples.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Is the EJRA proportionate and therefore justified? A critical review of the EJRA policy at Cambridge

This paper critically evaluates the HESA (Higher Education Statistics Agency) Data Report for the Employer Justified Retirement Age (EJRA) Review Group at the University of Cambridge (\cite{CambridgeHESA2024}), identifying significant methodological flaws and misinterpretations. Our analysis reveals issues such as unclear application of data filters, inconsistent variable treatment, and erroneous statistical conclusions. The Report suggests that the EJRA increased job creation rates at Cambridge, but we show Cambridge consistently had lower job creation rates for Established Academic Careers compared to other Russell Group universities, both before and after EJRA implementation in 2011, with no evidence for a significant change in this deficit post implementation. This suggests that EJRA is not a significant factor driving job creation rates. Since other universities without an EJRA exhibit higher job creation rates, this suggests job creation can be sustained without such a policy. We conclude that the EJRA did not achieve its intended goal of increasing opportunities for young academics and may have exacerbated existing disparities compared to other leading universities. We recommend EJRA be abolished at Cambridge since it does not meet its aims and could be viewed as unlawful age discrimination.\newline \it{This version is a revision reflecting some of the comments made by members of the university EJRA review group in public discussion, see \cite{Holmes24}.}

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Estimating Factor-Based Spot Volatility Matrices with Noisy and Asynchronous High-Frequency Data

We propose a new estimator of high-dimensional spot volatility matrices satisfying a low-rank plus sparse structure from noisy and asynchronous high-frequency data collected for an ultra-large number of assets. The noise processes are allowed to be temporally correlated, heteroskedastic, asymptotically vanishing and dependent on the efficient prices. We define a kernel-weighted pre-averaging method to jointly tackle the microstructure noise and asynchronicity issues, and we obtain uniformly consistent estimates for latent prices. We impose a continuous-time factor model with time-varying factor loadings on the price processes, and estimate the common factors and loadings via a local principal component analysis. Assuming a uniform sparsity condition on the idiosyncratic volatility structure, we combine the POET and kernel-smoothing techniques to estimate the spot volatility matrices for both the latent prices and idiosyncratic errors. Under some mild restrictions, the estimated spot volatility matrices are shown to be uniformly consistent under various matrix norms. We provide Monte-Carlo simulation and empirical studies to examine the numerical performance of the developed estimation methodology.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Nonparametric Estimation of Large Spot Volatility Matrices for High-Frequency Financial Data

In this paper, we consider estimating spot/instantaneous volatility matrices of high-frequency data collected for a large number of assets. We first combine classic nonparametric kernel-based smoothing with a generalised shrinkage technique in the matrix estimation for noise-free data under a uniform sparsity assumption, a natural extension of the approximate sparsity commonly used in the literature. The uniform consistency property is derived for the proposed spot volatility matrix estimator with convergence rates comparable to the optimal minimax one. For the high-frequency data contaminated by microstructure noise, we introduce a localised pre-averaging estimation method that reduces the effective magnitude of the noise. We then use the estimation tool developed in the noise-free scenario, and derive the uniform convergence rates for the developed spot volatility matrix estimator. We further combine the kernel smoothing with the shrinkage technique to estimate the time-varying volatility matrix of the high-dimensional noise vector. In addition, we consider large spot volatility matrix estimation in time-varying factor models with observable risk factors and derive the uniform convergence property. We provide numerical studies including simulation and empirical application to examine the performance of the proposed estimation methods in finite samples.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Estimating Time-Varying Networks for High-Dimensional Time Series

We explore time-varying networks for high-dimensional locally stationary time series, using the large VAR model framework with both the transition and (error) precision matrices evolving smoothly over time. Two types of time-varying graphs are investigated: one containing directed edges of Granger causality linkages, and the other containing undirected edges of partial correlation linkages. Under the sparse structural assumption, we propose a penalised local linear method with time-varying weighted group LASSO to jointly estimate the transition matrices and identify their significant entries, and a time-varying CLIME method to estimate the precision matrices. The estimated transition and precision matrices are then used to determine the time-varying network structures. Under some mild conditions, we derive the theoretical properties of the proposed estimates including the consistency and oracle properties. In addition, we extend the methodology and theory to cover highly-correlated large-scale time series, for which the sparsity assumption becomes invalid and we allow for common factors before estimating the factor-adjusted time-varying networks. We provide extensive simulation studies and an empirical application to a large U.S. macroeconomic dataset to illustrate the finite-sample performance of our methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Nonparametric Estimation of Mediation Effects with A General Treatment

To investigate causal mechanisms, causal mediation analysis decomposes the total treatment effect into the natural direct and indirect effects. This paper examines the estimation of the direct and indirect effects in a general treatment effect model, where the treatment can be binary, multi-valued, continuous, or a mixture. We propose generalized weighting estimators with weights estimated by solving an expanding set of equations. Under some sufficient conditions, we show that the proposed estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. Specifically, when the treatment is discrete, the proposed estimators attain the semiparametric efficiency bounds. Meanwhile, when the treatment is continuous, the convergence rates of the proposed estimators are slower than $N^{-1/2}$; however, they are still more efficient than that constructed from the true weighting function. A simulation study reveals that our estimators exhibit a satisfactory finite-sample performance, while an application shows their practical value

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Estimation and Inference in High-Dimensional Panel Data Models with Interactive Fixed Effects

We develop new econometric methods for estimation and inference in high-dimensional panel data models with interactive fixed effects. Our approach can be regarded as a non-trivial extension of the very popular common correlated effects (CCE) approach. Roughly speaking, we proceed as follows: We first construct a projection device to eliminate the unobserved factors from the model by applying a dimensionality reduction transform to the matrix of cross-sectionally averaged covariates. The unknown parameters are then estimated by applying lasso techniques to the projected model. For inference purposes, we derive a desparsified version of our lasso-type estimator. While the original CCE approach is restricted to the low-dimensional case where the number of regressors is small and fixed, our methods can deal with both low- and high-dimensional situations where the number of regressors is large and may even exceed the overall sample size. We derive theory for our estimation and inference methods both in the large-T-case, where the time series length T tends to infinity, and in the small-T-case, where T is a fixed natural number. Specifically, we derive the convergence rate of our estimator and show that its desparsified version is asymptotically normal under suitable regularity conditions. The theoretical analysis of the paper is complemented by a simulation study and an empirical application to characteristic based asset pricing.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2021

A Unified Framework for Specification Tests of Continuous Treatment Effect Models

We propose a general framework for the specification testing of continuous treatment effect models. We assume a general residual function, which includes the average and quantile treatment effect models as special cases. The null models are identified under the unconfoundedness condition and contain a nonparametric weighting function. We propose a test statistic for the null model in which the weighting function is estimated by solving an expanding set of moment equations. We establish the asymptotic distributions of our test statistic under the null hypothesis and under fixed and local alternatives. The proposed test statistic is shown to be more efficient than that constructed from the true weighting function and can detect local alternatives deviated from the null models at the rate of $O(N^{-1/2})$. A simulation method is provided to approximate the null distribution of the test statistic. Monte-Carlo simulations show that our test exhibits a satisfactory finite-sample performance, and an application shows its practical value.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2020

On the Time Trend of COVID-19: A Panel Data Study

In this paper, we study the trending behaviour of COVID-19 data at country level, and draw attention to some existing econometric tools which are potentially helpful to understand the trend better in future studies. In our empirical study, we find that European countries overall flatten the curves more effectively compared to the other regions, while Asia & Oceania also achieve some success, but the situations are not as optimistic elsewhere. Africa and America are still facing serious challenges in terms of managing the spread of the virus, and reducing the death rate, although in Africa the virus spreads slower and has a lower death rate than the other regions. By comparing the performances of different countries, our results incidentally agree with Gu et al. (2020), though different approaches and models are considered. For example, both works agree that countries such as USA, UK and Italy perform relatively poorly; on the other hand, Australia, China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore perform relatively better.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2019

Multiscale clustering of nonparametric regression curves

In a wide range of modern applications, we observe a large number of time series rather than only a single one. It is often natural to suppose that there is some group structure in the observed time series. When each time series is modelled by a nonparametric regression equation, one may in particular assume that the observed time series can be partitioned into a small number of groups whose members share the same nonparametric regression function. We develop a bandwidth-free clustering method to estimate the unknown group structure from the data. More precisely speaking, we construct multiscale estimators of the unknown groups and their unknown number which are free of classical bandwidth or smoothing parameters. In the theoretical part of the paper, we analyze the statistical properties of our estimators. Our theoretical results are derived under general conditions which allow the data to be dependent both in time series direction and across different time series. The technical analysis of the paper is complemented by a simulation study and a real-data application.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

A Unified Framework for Efficient Estimation of General Treatment Models

This paper presents a weighted optimization framework that unifies the binary,multi-valued, continuous, as well as mixture of discrete and continuous treatment, under the unconfounded treatment assignment. With a general loss function, the framework includes the average, quantile and asymmetric least squares causal effect of treatment as special cases. For this general framework, we first derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for the causal effect of treatment, extending the existing bound results to a wider class of models. We then propose a generalized optimization estimation for the causal effect with weights estimated by solving an expanding set of equations. Under some sufficient conditions, we establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator of the causal effect and show that the estimator attains our semiparametric efficiency bound, thereby extending the existing literature on efficient estimation of causal effect to a wider class of applications. Finally, we discuss etimation of some causal effect functionals such as the treatment effect curve and the average outcome. To evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure, we conduct a small scale simulation study and find that the proposed estimation has practical value. To illustrate the applicability of the procedure, we revisit the literature on campaign advertise and campaign contributions. Unlike the existing procedures which produce mixed results, we find no evidence of campaign advertise on campaign contribution.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2018

The Cross-Quantilogram: Measuring Quantile Dependence and Testing Directional Predictability between Time Series

This paper proposes the cross-quantilogram to measure the quantile dependence between two time series. We apply it to test the hypothesis that one time series has no directional predictability to another time series. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the cross quantilogram and the corresponding test statistic. The limiting distributions depend on nuisance parameters. To construct consistent confidence intervals we employ the stationary bootstrap procedure; we show the consistency of this bootstrap. Also, we consider the self-normalized approach, which is shown to be asymptotically pivotal under the null hypothesis of no predictability. We provide simulation studies and two empirical applications. First, we use the cross-quantilogram to detect predictability from stock variance to excess stock return. Compared to existing tools used in the literature of stock return predictability, our method provides a more complete relationship between a predictor and stock return. Second, we investigate the systemic risk of individual financial institutions, such as JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and AIG. This article has supplementary materials online.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

A Simple and Efficient Estimation Method for Models with Nonignorable Missing Data

This paper proposes a simple and efficient estimation procedure for the model with non-ignorable missing data studied by Morikawa and Kim (2016). Their semiparametrically efficient estimator requires explicit nonparametric estimation and so suffers from the curse of dimensionality and requires a bandwidth selection. We propose an estimation method based on the Generalized Method of Moments (hereafter GMM). Our method is consistent and asymptotically normal regardless of the number of moments chosen. Furthermore, if the number of moments increases appropriately our estimator can achieve the semiparametric efficiency bound derived in Morikawa and Kim (2016), but under weaker regularity conditions. Moreover, our proposed estimator and its consistent covariance matrix are easily computed with the widely available GMM package. We propose two data-based methods for selection of the number of moments. A small scale simulation study reveals that the proposed estimation indeed out-performs the existing alternatives in finite samples.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Estimation in Semiparametric Quantile Factor Models

We propose an estimation methodology for a semiparametric quantile factor panel model. We provide tools for inference that are robust to the existence of moments and to the form of weak cross-sectional dependence in the idiosyncratic error term. We apply our method to daily stock return data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

Asymptotic properties of a Nadaraya-Watson type estimator for regression functions of infinite order

We consider a class of nonparametric time series regression models in which the regressor takes values in a sequence space. Technical challenges that hampered theoretical advances in these models include the lack of associated Lebesgue density and difficulties with regard to the choice of dependence structure in the autoregressive framework. We propose an infinite-dimensional Nadaraya-Watson type estimator, and investigate its asymptotic properties in detail under both static regressive and autoregressive contexts, aiming to answer the open questions left by Linton and Sancetta (2009). First we show pointwise consistency of the estimator under a set of mild regularity conditions. Furthermore, the asymptotic normality of the estimator is established, and then its uniform strong consistency is shown over a compact set of logarithmically increasing dimension with respect to $α$-mixing and near epoch dependent (NED) samples. We specify the explicit rates of convergence in terms of the Lambert W function, and show that the optimal rate is of logarithmic order, confirming the existence of the curse of infinite dimensionality.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2011

Nonparametric regression with filtered data

We present a general principle for estimating a regression function nonparametrically, allowing for a wide variety of data filtering, for example, repeated left truncation and right censoring. Both the mean and the median regression cases are considered. The method works by first estimating the conditional hazard function or conditional survivor function and then integrating. We also investigate improved methods that take account of model structure such as independent errors and show that such methods can improve performance when the model structure is true. We establish the pointwise asymptotic normality of our estimators.

math.ST↗

arXiv2008

Estimation of a semiparametric transformation model

This paper proposes consistent estimators for transformation parameters in semiparametric models. The problem is to find the optimal transformation into the space of models with a predetermined regression structure like additive or multiplicative separability. We give results for the estimation of the transformation when the rest of the model is estimated non- or semi-parametrically and fulfills some consistency conditions. We propose two methods for the estimation of the transformation parameter: maximizing a profile likelihood function or minimizing the mean squared distance from independence. First the problem of identification of such models is discussed. We then state asymptotic results for a general class of nonparametric estimators. Finally, we give some particular examples of nonparametric estimators of transformed separable models. The small sample performance is studied in several simulations.

math.ST↗