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Oliver Maclaren

Publications and source records attributed to Oliver Maclaren.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Online Gate-Driven Flow Control in Resin Transfer Moulding Using a Neural-Network Surrogate

In resin transfer moulding, complete saturation of the fibre preform is necessary before the resin front reaches the outlet vent(s), to prevent dry-spot formation. In practice, the flow front rarely advances uniformly due to race-tracking effects. We propose a combined estimation and control strategy to address this issue. We use pressure-sensor data collected during filling to estimate the unknown race-tracking strengths via an iterated extended Kalman filter, and to simultaneously optimise auxiliary gate pressures to prevent the resin from arriving at the vent before complete saturation occurs. To make this approach feasible in real time, we replace the expensive finite element-control volume model with neural network surrogate models. The Bayesian approximation error framework is used to account for the discrepancy between the surrogates and the original model. To make the training of the surrogates feasible with time-dependent control actions, we prove that the flow-front geometry depends only on the time-averaged gate pressures. We demonstrate the methodology on a representative forked geometry, showing that the combined estimation-and-control framework can substantially reduce the number of unfilled nodes at the end of filling compared with an uncontrolled baseline. However, the level of improvement depends strongly on the location and number of auxiliary gates.

math.OC

Modelling Immunity in Agent-based Models

Vaccination policies play a central role in public health interventions and models are often used to assess the effectiveness of these policies. Many vaccines are leaky, in which case the observed vaccine effectiveness depends on the force of infection. Within models, the immunity parameters required for agent-based models to achieve observed vaccine effectiveness values are further influenced by model features such as its transmission algorithm, contact network structure, and approach to simulating vaccination. We present a method for determining parameters in agent-based models such that a set of target immunity values is achieved. We construct a dataset of desired population-level immunity values against various disease outcomes considering both vaccination and prior infection from COVID-19. This dataset incorporates immunological data, data collection methodologies, immunity models, and biological insights. We then describe how we choose minimal parameters for continuous waning immunity curves that result in those target values being realized in simulations. We use simulations of the household secondary attack rates to establish a relationship between the protection per infection attempt and overall immunity, thus accounting for the dependence of protection from acquisition on model features and the force of infection.

q-bio.PE