Predicting Radial Velocities from Rossiter-McLaughlin Time Series Observations
The Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect produces apparent radial velocity (RV) shifts through line-profile distortions caused by a transiting planet blocking different regions of the rotating stellar surface. Because the underlying orbital RV trend can be estimated from out-of-transit observations, RM sequences provide a controlled laboratory for studying flux-induced RV variations. We compiled a sample of 1171 ESPRESSO observations of 13 targets obtained during 21 RM observing nights and trained machine-learning models to reconstruct a reference RV trend from observed RVs, line-profile diagnostics, and activity indicators. Predictive performance varied substantially among stars and depended on both the strength of the RM signal and the similarity of the target star to the training sample. Applications to Sun-as-a-star observations and Proxima Centauri recovered known periodicities but did not fully remove the activity-induced variability. Larger and more diverse datasets will be required to assess the potential of this approach for mitigating activity-induced RV signals.