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Omar El Sayed

Publications and source records attributed to Omar El Sayed.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

Optimal Power Flow in Highly Renewable Power System Based on Attention Neural Networks

The Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problem is pivotal for power system operations, guiding generator output and power distribution to meet demand at minimized costs, while adhering to physical and engineering constraints. The integration of renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, however, poses challenges due to their inherent variability. This variability, driven largely by changing weather conditions, demands frequent recalibrations of power settings, thus necessitating recurrent OPF resolutions. This task is daunting using traditional numerical methods, particularly for extensive power systems. In this work, we present a cutting-edge, physics-informed machine learning methodology, trained using imitation learning and historical European weather datasets. Our approach directly correlates electricity demand and weather patterns with power dispatch and generation, circumventing the iterative requirements of traditional OPF solvers. This offers a more expedient solution apt for real-time applications. Rigorous evaluations on aggregated European power systems validate our method's superiority over existing data-driven techniques in OPF solving. By presenting a quick, robust, and efficient solution, this research sets a new standard in real-time OPF resolution, paving the way for more resilient power systems in the era of renewable energy.

cs.LG

Sunda-arc seismicity: continuing increase of high-magnitude earthquakes since 2004

Spatial and temporal data for earthquakes with magnitude M greater than or equal to 6.5 can provide crucial information about the seismic history and potential for large earthquakes in a region. We analyzed approximately 313,500 events that occurred in the Sunda-arc region during the last 56 years, from 1964 to 2020, reported by the International Seismological Center. We report a persistent increase in the annual number of the events with mb greater than or equal to 6.5. We tested this increase against the null hypothesis and discarded the possibility of the increase being due to random groupings. The trend given by Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average suggests continuing increase of such large-magnitude events in the region during the next decade. At the same time, the computed Gutenberg Richter b value shows anomalies that can be related to the occurrence of the mega 2004 Sumatra earthquake, and to possible state of high tectonic stress in the eastern parts of the region.

physics.geo-ph

Carbon Leakage in a European Power System with Inhomogeneous Carbon Prices

Global warming is one of the main threats to the future of humanity and extensive emissions of greenhouse gases are found to be the main cause of global temperature rise as well as climate change. During the last decades international attention has focused on this issue, as well as on searching for viable solutions to mitigate global warming. In this context, the pricing of greenhouse gas emissions turned out to be the most prominent mechanism: First, to lower the emissions, and second, to capture their external costs. By now, various carbon dioxide taxes have been adopted by several countries in Europe and around the world; moreover, the list of these countries is growing. However, there is no standardized approach and the price for carbon varies significantly from one country to another. Regionally diversified carbon prices in turn lead to carbon leakage, which will offset the climate protection goals. In this paper, a simplified European power system with flexible carbon prices regarding the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is investigated. A distribution parameter that quantifies carbon leakage is defined and varied together with the base carbon price, where the combination of both parameters describes the spatially resolved price distribution, i.e. the effective carbon pricing among the European regions. It is shown that inhomogeneous carbon prices will indeed lead to significant carbon leakage across the continent, and that coal-fired electricity generation will remain a cheap and therefore major source of power in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe - representing a potential risk for the long term decarbonization targets within the European Union.

econ.GN

Renewable Generation Data for European Energy System Analysis

In the process of decarbonization, the global energy mix is shifting from fossil fuels to renewables. To study decarbonization pathways, large-scale energy system models are utilized. These models require accurate data on renewable generation to develop their full potential. Using different data can lead to conflicting results and policy advice. In this work, we compare several datasets that are commonly used to study the transition towards highly renewable European power system. We find significant differences between these datasets and cost-difference of about 10% result in the different energy mix. We conclude that much more attention must be paid to the large uncertainties of the input data.

physics.soc-ph