arXiv subjects

Omar Larré

Publications and source records attributed to Omar Larré.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Declining CVaR Glidepath Framework for Target-Date Fund Design with an Application to the Chilean Pension System

We propose a framework for designing Target-Date Funds (TDFs) around an explicit return objective while controlling risk directly at the portfolio level through a declining Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraint. In this approach, the regulator or sponsor specifies a CVaR glidepath that gives the portfolio manager enough flexibility to reach a target return with a reasonably high probability. The target return is determined exogenously from pension-design inputs such as retirement age, contribution rate, working years, life expectancy, and replacement-rate goals. This differs from conventional TDF design, where age-dependent asset-class limits are set without an explicit link to a required return. A key feature of the method is that it does not assume the manager selects an optimal portfolio each period. Instead, each month the manager draws an allocation from the set of portfolios satisfying the CVaR constraint. This yields a conservative evaluation of each glidepath: success probabilities are averages over admissible allocations, rather than best-case outcomes. We introduce two figures of merit: the probability of meeting the target return and the cumulative risk assumed over the life of the TDF. As a proof of concept, we apply the framework to Chile's 2025 pension reform using nine Chilean and global asset classes and a 40-year accumulation horizon. The results show that the transition age at which risk starts to decline is the most consequential design parameter, and that contribution density acts as a hard constraint: below a critical threshold, portfolio design alone cannot compensate for structurally low contributions. The framework is general and can be applied to any TDF designed around an explicit return objective.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2025

Target-Date Funds: A State-of-the-Art Review with Policy Applications to Chile's Pension Reform

This review paper explores the evolution and implementation of target-date funds (TDFs), specifically focusing on their application within the context of Chile's 2025 pension reform. The introduction of TDFs marks a significant shift in Chile's pension system, which has traditionally relied on a multifund structure (essentially a target-risk funds system). We offer a comprehensive review of the theoretical foundations and practical considerations of TDFs, highlighting key challenges and opportunities for Chilean regulators and fund managers. Notably, we recommend that the glide path design should be dynamic, incorporating adjustments based on total accumulated wealth, with particular flexibility depending on each investor's risk tolerance. Furthermore, we propose that the new benchmark for generational funds should feature a wide deviation band relative to the new benchmark portfolio, which could foster a market with more investment strategies and better competition among fund managers, encourage the inclusion of alternative assets, and foster greater diversification. Lastly, we highlight the need for future work to define a glide path model that incorporates the theoretical frameworks described, tailored to the unique parameters of the Chilean pension system. These recommendations aim to optimize the long-term retirement outcomes for Chilean workers under the new pension structure.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2024

A Modified CTGAN-Plus-Features Based Method for Optimal Asset Allocation

We propose a new approach to portfolio optimization that utilizes a unique combination of synthetic data generation and a CVaR-constraint. We formulate the portfolio optimization problem as an asset allocation problem in which each asset class is accessed through a passive (index) fund. The asset-class weights are determined by solving an optimization problem which includes a CVaR-constraint. The optimization is carried out by means of a Modified CTGAN algorithm which incorporates features (contextual information) and is used to generate synthetic return scenarios, which, in turn, are fed into the optimization engine. For contextual information we rely on several points along the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The merits of this approach are demonstrated with an example based on ten asset classes (covering stocks, bonds, and commodities) over a fourteen-and-half year period (January 2008-June 2022). We also show that the synthetic generation process is able to capture well the key characteristics of the original data, and the optimization scheme results in portfolios that exhibit satisfactory out-of-sample performance. We also show that this approach outperforms the conventional equal-weights (1/N) asset allocation strategy and other optimization formulations based on historical data only.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2014

Dynamic Equilibria in Fluid Queuing Networks

This paper continues the study of equilibria for flows over time in the fluid queueing model recently considered by Koch and Skutella [10]. We provide a constructive proof for the existence and uniqueness of equilibria in the case of a single origin-destination with piecewise constant inflow rates, through a detailed analysis of the static flows obtained as derivatives of a dynamic equilibrium. We also give a nonconstructive existence proof of equilibria when the inflow rates belong to $L^p$ including the extension to multiple origin-destinations.

math.OC↗

arXiv2013

TSP Tours in Cubic Graphs: Beyond 4/3

After a sequence of improvements Boyd, Sitters, van der Ster, and Stougie proved that any 2-connected graph whose n vertices have degree 3, i.e., a cubic 2-connected graph, has a Hamiltonian tour of length at most (4/3)n, establishing in particular that the integrality gap of the subtour LP is at most 4/3 for cubic 2-connected graphs and matching the conjectured value of the famous 4/3 conjecture. In this paper we improve upon this result by designing an algorithm that finds a tour of length (4/3 - 1/61236)n, implying that cubic 2-connected graphs are among the few interesting classes of graphs for which the integrality gap of the subtour LP is strictly less than 4/3. With the previous result, and by considering an even smaller epsilon, we show that the integrality gap of the TSP relaxation is at most 4/3 - epsilon, even if the graph is not 2-connected (i.e. for cubic connected graphs), implying that the approximability threshold of the TSP in cubic graphs is strictly below 4/3. Finally, using similar techniques we show, as an additional result, that every Barnette graph admits a tour of length at most (4/3 - 1/18)n.

cs.DS↗