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Omer Karaduman

Publications and source records attributed to Omer Karaduman.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Behavioral Generative Agents for Energy Operations

Problem definition: Accurately modeling consumer behavior in energy operations is challenging due to uncertainty, behavioral heterogeneity, and limited empirical data-particularly in low-frequency, high-impact events. While generative AI trained on large-scale human data offers new opportunities to study decision behavior, its role in operational applications remains unclear. We examine how generative agents can support customer behavior discovery in energy operations, complementing rather than replacing human-based experiments. Methodology/results: We introduce a novel approach leveraging generative agents-artificial agents powered by large language models-to simulate sequential customer decisions under dynamic electricity prices and outage risks. We find that these agents behave more optimally and rationally in simpler market scenarios, while their performance becomes more variable and suboptimal as task complexity rises. Furthermore, the agents exhibit heterogeneous customer preferences, consistently maintaining distinct, persona-driven reasoning patterns in both operational decisions and textual reasoning. Comparisons with dynamic programming and greedy policy benchmarks show alignment between specific personas and distinct heuristic decision policies. In low-frequency, high-impact events such as blackouts, agents prioritize energy reliability over cost or profit, demonstrating their ability to uncover behavioral patterns beyond the rigidity of traditional mathematical models. Managerial Implications: Our findings suggest that behavioral generative agents can serve as scalable and flexible tools for studying consumer behavior in energy operations. By enabling controlled experiments across heterogeneous customer types and rare events, these agents can enhance the design of energy management systems and support more informed analysis of energy policies and incentive programs.

cs.AI

Optimal Mechanisms for Demand Response: An Indifference Set Approach

The time at which renewable (e.g., solar or wind) energy resources produce electricity cannot generally be controlled. In many settings, however, consumers have some flexibility in their energy consumption needs, and there is growing interest in demand-response programs that leverage this flexibility to shift energy consumption to better match renewable production -- thus enabling more efficient utilization of these resources. We study optimal demand response in a setting where consumers use home energy management systems (HEMS) to autonomously adjust their electricity consumption. Our core assumption is that HEMS operationalize flexibility by querying the consumer for their preferences and computing the ``indifference set'' of all energy consumption profiles that can be used to satisfy these preferences. Then, given an indifference set, HEMS can respond to grid signals while guaranteeing user-defined comfort and functionality; e.g., if a consumer sets a temperature range, a HEMS can precool and preheat to align with peak renewable production, thus improving efficiency without sacrificing comfort. We show that while price-based mechanisms are not generally optimal for demand response, they become asymptotically optimal in large markets under a mean-field limit. Furthermore, we show that optimal dynamic prices can be efficiently computed in large markets by only querying HEMS about their planned consumption under different price signals. Using an OpenDSS-powered grid simulation for Phoenix, Arizona, we demonstrate that our approach enables meaningful demand response without creating grid instability.

math.OC