arXiv subjects

Omid Armantalab

Publications and source records attributed to Omid Armantalab.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Why Do We Need Travel Behavior Theory in the Age of AI? Multiple Goal Pursuit as an Illustrative Theory

Travel behavior and demand modeling seeks to understand the factors that motivate transportation decisions. At the same time, the field is increasingly adopting algorithmic and artificial intelligence (AI) tools that improve predictive accuracy, often at the cost of a grounding in hypothesis-based theory validation and behavioural explanation. In this discussion paper, we use goal pursuit theory (GPT) to illustrate why behavioral theory is a necessary complement to prediction in travel behavior research. Unlike random utility maximization (RUM) or close alternatives (e.g., random regret minimization (RRM)), GPT explicitly models how travelers (1) activate context-dependent goals (hedonic, gain, normative), (2) resolve conflicts between competing objectives, and (3) make sequential decisions across temporal scales. We demonstrate GPT's merits through three transport applications: activity scheduling (handling hierarchical goal structures), vehicle ownership (disentangling bundled mobility goals), and location choice (capturing latent goal interactions via matrix factorization). We provide actionable guidance for implementation, including: (a) hybrid choice model specifications linking goals to observable behaviors, (b) parallels to complementary behavioral theories from the transportation field, and (c) data requirements and comparative benchmarks against RUM/RRM models.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Quantum-Inspired Modeling of Driving Behavior

Driver behavior is heterogeneous, context-dependent, and changes over time, and these properties shape the traffic phenomena we observe. Most models, however, fix in advance which behavioral variables interact and how. Behavior outside that form is absorbed as noise, while models flexible enough to capture it tend to lose interpretability. We introduce a quantum-inspired representation of driver behavior that combines properties usually treated separately or in part: it is continuous, probabilistic, context-dependent, history-dependent, and represents interactions among behavioral variables as learned from data. Each driver is encoded as an evolving density matrix, providing a unified representation of behavioral uncertainty, temporal evolution, and context-dependent behavioral variation. Trained without supervision on the I-24 MOTION dataset, the framework recovers three interpretable driving profiles representing three regimes: free flow, transition, and congestion. The profiles capture the behavioral range of the data and the smooth transitions drivers make between regimes as conditions change. The same representation also reproduces known macroscopic phenomena, aligning with the fundamental diagram and reproducing hysteresis loops. We also show how the representation supports practical use: it supplies context-dependent parameters to classical car-following models, and gives an autonomous vehicle a live behavioral read of the surrounding drivers with a short-horizon forecast of their motion. The framework points toward models of traffic that are interpretable and trustworthy by construction. We release an open-source toolkit on GitHub (https://github.com/mselayan/quantum-driver-representation) spanning data processing, training, inference, and analysis.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Pseudo Panel Difference-in-Differences (DiD) Analysis of Online Shopping Behavior in the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) Region

Online shopping is a growing trend, particularly following the COVID-19 lock-downs enacted by many cities. Understanding these trends requires robust panel dat methods. However, panel data (i.e., with repeated measurements of the same observational units) are often unavailable. In this study, we use a propensity score weighting (PSW) approach to adjust repeated cross-sectional travel diary surveys collected in the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) region. The most common home delivery is packages (2.09 days per week in 2023), followed by food (0.36 days per week in 2023). We find that single-family detached and townhouse residents tend to receive more home deliveries than those living in apartments. We also find a difference in several patterns pre- and post-COVID pandemic. Vehicle deficient households did not exhibit the same increase in home delivery frequency as other households pre-COVID, but the pattern reversed in the post-COVID period - i.e., vehicle deficient households saw a relative increase in delivery frequency. Overall, this study demonstrates the pseudo-panel approach to causal inference by leveraging differences in PSW-weighted in delivery frequency across treatment groups.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Mobility Behavior Evolution During Extended Emergencies: Returners, Explorers, and the 15-Minute City

Understanding human mobility during emergencies is critical for strengthening urban resilience and guiding emergency management. This study examines transitions between returners, who repeatedly visit a limited set of locations, and explorers, who travel across broader destinations, over a 15-day emergency period in a densely populated metropolitan region using the YJMob100K dataset. High-resolution spatial data reveal intra-urban behavioral dynamics often masked at coarser scales. Beyond static comparisons, we analyze how mobility evolves over time, with varying emergency durations, across weekdays and weekends, and relative to neighborhood boundaries, linking the analysis to the 15-minute city framework. Results show that at least two weeks of data are required to detect meaningful behavioral shifts. During prolonged emergencies, individuals resume visits to non-essential locations more slowly than under normal conditions. Explorers markedly reduce long distance travel, while weekends and holidays consistently exhibit returner-like, short distance patterns. Residents of low Points of Interest (POI) density neighborhoods often travel to POI rich areas, highlighting spatial disparities. Strengthening local accessibility may improve urban resilience during crises. Full reproducibility is supported through the project website: https://github.com/wissamkontar

cs.SI↗