arXiv subjects

Omid Rafieian

Publications and source records attributed to Omid Rafieian.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Privacy-Utility Trade-Off of Location Tracking in Ad Personalization

Firms collect vast amounts of behavioral and geographical data on individuals. While behavioral data captures an individual's digital footprint, geographical data reflects their physical footprint. Given the significant privacy risks associated with combining these data sources, it is crucial to understand their respective value and whether they act as complements or substitutes in achieving firms' business objectives. In this paper, we combine economic theory, machine learning, and causal inference to quantify the value of geographical data, the extent to which behavioral data can substitute for it, and the mechanisms through which it benefits firms. Using data from a leading in-app advertising platform in a large Asian country, we document that geographical data is most valuable in the early cold-start stage, when behavioral histories are limited. In this stage, geographical data complements behavioral data, improving targeting performance by almost 20%. As users accumulate richer behavioral histories, however, the role of geographical data shifts: it becomes largely substitutable, as behavioral data alone captures the relevant heterogeneity. These results highlight a central privacy-utility trade-off in ad personalization and inform managerial decisions about when location tracking creates value.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Auctions Meet Bandits: An Empirical Analysis

Sponsored search positions are typically allocated through real-time auctions, where the outcomes depend on advertisers' quality-adjusted bids - the product of their bids and quality scores. Although quality scoring helps promote ads with higher conversion outcomes, setting these scores for new advertisers in any given market is challenging, leading to the cold-start problem. To address this, platforms incorporate multi-armed bandit algorithms in auctions to balance exploration and exploitation. However, little is known about the optimal exploration strategies in such auction environments. We utilize data from a leading Asian mobile app store that places sponsored ads for keywords. The platform employs a Thompson Sampling algorithm within a second-price auction to learn quality scores and allocate a single sponsored position for each keyword. We empirically quantify the gains from optimizing exploration under this combined auction-bandit model and show that this problem differs substantially from the canonical bandit problem. Drawing on these empirical insights, we propose a customized exploration strategy in which the platform adjusts the exploration levels for each keyword according to its characteristics. We derive the Pareto frontier for revenue and efficiency and provide actionable policies, demonstrating substantial gains for the platform on both metrics when using a tailored exploration approach.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

Visual Polarization Measurement Using Counterfactual Image Generation

Political polarization is a significant issue in American politics, influencing public discourse, policy, and consumer behavior. While studies on polarization in news media have extensively focused on verbal content, non-verbal elements, particularly visual content, have received less attention due to the complexity and high dimensionality of image data. Traditional descriptive approaches often rely on feature extraction from images, leading to biased polarization estimates due to information loss. In this paper, we introduce the Polarization Measurement using Counterfactual Image Generation (PMCIG) method, which combines economic theory with generative models and multi-modal deep learning to fully utilize the richness of image data and provide a theoretically grounded measure of polarization in visual content. Applying this framework to a decade-long dataset featuring 30 prominent politicians across 20 major news outlets, we identify significant polarization in visual content, with notable variations across outlets and politicians. At the news outlet level, we observe significant heterogeneity in visual slant. Outlets such as Daily Mail, Fox News, and Newsmax tend to favor Republican politicians in their visual content, while The Washington Post, USA Today, and The New York Times exhibit a slant in favor of Democratic politicians. At the politician level, our results reveal substantial variation in polarized coverage, with Donald Trump and Barack Obama among the most polarizing figures, while Joe Manchin and Susan Collins are among the least. Finally, we conduct a series of validation tests demonstrating the consistency of our proposed measures with external measures of media slant that rely on non-image-based sources.

cs.CV↗