arXiv subjects

Onur A. Kilic

Publications and source records attributed to Onur A. Kilic.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Condition-Based Maintenance of Degrading Assets underIntermittent Accessibility

Many maintenance models implicitly assume that maintenance can be performed whenever intervention is warranted. In practice, however, environmental uncertainty, such as weather and sea conditions, can make maintenance opportunities intermittent and dynamically evolving. We consider a degrading asset for which preventive maintenance may be performed before failure, but intervention is possible only when the asset is accessible. Accessibility evolves stochastically over time and therefore affects not only whether maintenance can be performed now, but also the value of waiting for future opportunities. We formulate this setting as a finite-state Markov decision process under a long-run average cost criterion and investigate the structure of the optimal maintenance policy. Under monotone degradation and cost conditions, we show that an optimal policy retains a threshold form in asset condition, but unlike a single threshold, the optimal threshold varies with the accessibility state. Thus, intervention depends jointly on the asset condition and the expected evolution of future maintenance opportunities. Through a numerical study motivated by offshore wind turbine maintenance, we examine how accessibility dynamics, degradation characteristics, and economic parameters shape the optimal thresholds and compare the optimal policy with constant-threshold and age-based maintenance policies. In a representative setting, adapting the condition threshold to accessibility reduces long-run average cost by 4.31% relative to an optimized condition-based maintenance policy. Relative to an optimized age-based policy, the optimal policy reduces long-run average cost by 33.95%. The results show that maintenance thresholds are not universal: they should adapt to the degradation and accessibility characteristics of the system, and failing to account for these conditions can lead to substantial cost increases.

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arXiv2020

A recursion-free functional approximation for the dynamic inventory problem

We consider the dynamic inventory problem with non-stationary demands. It has long been known that non-stationary (s, S) policies are optimal for this problem. However, finding optimal policy parameters remains a computational challenge as it requires solving a large-scale stochastic dynamic program. To address this, we devise a recursion-free approximation for the optimal cost function of the problem. This enables us to compute policy parameters heuristically, without resorting to a stochastic dynamic program. The heuristic is easy-to-understand and -use since it follows by elementary methods of convex minimization and shortest paths, yet it is very effective and outperforms earlier heuristics.

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arXiv2016

A comparison of non-stationary stochastic lot-sizing strategies

We consider the non-stationary stochastic lot sizing problem with backorder costs and make a cost comparison among different lot-sizing strategies. We initially provide an overview of the strategies and some corresponding solution approaches in the literature. We then compare the cost performances of the lot-sizing strategies on a common test bed while taking into account the added value of realized demand information. The results of this numerical experience enable us to derive novel insights about the cost performance of different stochastic lot-sizing strategies under re-planning with respect to demand realization.

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arXiv2014

A unified modeling approach for the static-dynamic uncertainty strategy in stochastic lot-sizing

In this paper, we develop mixed integer linear programming models to compute near-optimal policy parameters for the non-stationary stochastic lot sizing problem under Bookbinder and Tan's static-dynamic uncertainty strategy. Our models build on piecewise linear upper and lower bounds of the first order loss function. We discuss different formulations of the stochastic lot sizing problem, in which the quality of service is captured by means of backorder penalty costs, non-stockout probability, or fill rate constraints. These models can be easily adapted to operate in settings in which unmet demand is backordered or lost. The proposed approach has a number of advantages with respect to existing methods in the literature: it enables seamless modelling of different variants of the above problem, which have been previously tackled via ad-hoc solution methods; and it produces an accurate estimation of the expected total cost, expressed in terms of upper and lower bounds. Our computational study demonstrates the effectiveness and flexibility of our models.

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arXiv2011

A note on Tempelmeier's β-service measure under non-stationary stochastic demand

Tempelmeier (2007) considers the problem of computing replenishment cycle policy parameters under non-stationary stochastic demand and service level constraints. He analyses two possible service level measures: the minimum no stock-out probability per period (α-service level) and the so called "fill rate", that is the fraction of demand satisfied immediately from stock on hand (β-service level). For each of these possible measures, he presents a mixed integer programming (MIP) model to determine the optimal replenishment cycles and corresponding order-up-to levels minimizing the expected total setup and holding costs. His approach is essentially based on imposing service level dependent lower bounds on cycle order-up-to levels. In this note, we argue that Tempelmeier's strategy, in the β-service level case, while being an interesting option for practitioners, does not comply with the standard definition of "fill rate". By means of a simple numerical example we demonstrate that, as a consequence, his formulation might yield sub-optimal policies.

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