arXiv subjects

Oren Gilon

Publications and source records attributed to Oren Gilon.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Earthquake magnitudes depend on seismic history, as revealed by a neural network analysis

Earthquake occurrence is notoriously difficult to predict. While some aspects of their spatiotemporal statistics can be relatively well captured by point-process models, very little is known regarding the magnitude of future events, and it is deeply debated whether it is possible to predict the magnitude of an earthquake before it starts. Most operational forecasting models assume that earthquake magnitudes follow a time-independent Gutenberg-Richter (GR) distribution, effectively treating magnitudes as independent of seismic history. We address this fundamental question by demonstrating that standard hypocenter catalogs carry information about future earthquake magnitudes, making them more predictable than previously considered. We present MAGNET (MAGnitude Neural EsTimation model), which uses a multi-encoder neural network architecture with LSTM units to process spatiotemporal patterns in seismic history. By analyzing hypocenter locations, occurrence times, and magnitudes of past events, MAGNET generates probabilistic magnitude forecasts that demonstrate information gains in predicting magnitudes of future events over GR-based models, after controlling for detection artifacts. Our model achieves an information gain of approximately 0.07 bit per earthquake on average over the GR benchmark in Southern California, Japan, and New Zealand catalogs, with this advantage persisting. These results demonstrate that hypocentral earthquake catalogs contain extractable information about future magnitudes, challenging the conventional separability assumption in earthquake forecasting and offering new approaches for seismic hazard assessment.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

AI Increases Global Access to Reliable Flood Forecasts

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow gauge networks. Accurate and timely warnings are critical for mitigating flood risks, but hydrological simulation models typically must be calibrated to long data records in each watershed. Using AI, we achieve reliability in predicting extreme riverine events in ungauged watersheds at up to a 5-day lead time that is similar to or better than the reliability of nowcasts (0-day lead time) from a current state of the art global modeling system (the Copernicus Emergency Management Service Global Flood Awareness System). Additionally, we achieve accuracies over 5-year return period events that are similar to or better than current accuracies over 1-year return period events. This means that AI can provide flood warnings earlier and over larger and more impactful events in ungauged basins. The model developed in this paper was incorporated into an operational early warning system that produces publicly available (free and open) forecasts in real time in over 80 countries. This work highlights a need for increasing the availability of hydrological data to continue to improve global access to reliable flood warnings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Flood forecasting with machine learning models in an operational framework

The operational flood forecasting system by Google was developed to provide accurate real-time flood warnings to agencies and the public, with a focus on riverine floods in large, gauged rivers. It became operational in 2018 and has since expanded geographically. This forecasting system consists of four subsystems: data validation, stage forecasting, inundation modeling, and alert distribution. Machine learning is used for two of the subsystems. Stage forecasting is modeled with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and the Linear models. Flood inundation is computed with the Thresholding and the Manifold models, where the former computes inundation extent and the latter computes both inundation extent and depth. The Manifold model, presented here for the first time, provides a machine-learning alternative to hydraulic modeling of flood inundation. When evaluated on historical data, all models achieve sufficiently high-performance metrics for operational use. The LSTM showed higher skills than the Linear model, while the Thresholding and Manifold models achieved similar performance metrics for modeling inundation extent. During the 2021 monsoon season, the flood warning system was operational in India and Bangladesh, covering flood-prone regions around rivers with a total area of 287,000 km2, home to more than 350M people. More than 100M flood alerts were sent to affected populations, to relevant authorities, and to emergency organizations. Current and future work on the system includes extending coverage to additional flood-prone locations, as well as improving modeling capabilities and accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

ML-based Flood Forecasting: Advances in Scale, Accuracy and Reach

Floods are among the most common and deadly natural disasters in the world, and flood warning systems have been shown to be effective in reducing harm. Yet the majority of the world's vulnerable population does not have access to reliable and actionable warning systems, due to core challenges in scalability, computational costs, and data availability. In this paper we present two components of flood forecasting systems which were developed over the past year, providing access to these critical systems to 75 million people who didn't have this access before.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

A Joint Named-Entity Recognizer for Heterogeneous Tag-sets Using a Tag Hierarchy

We study a variant of domain adaptation for named-entity recognition where multiple, heterogeneously tagged training sets are available. Furthermore, the test tag-set is not identical to any individual training tag-set. Yet, the relations between all tags are provided in a tag hierarchy, covering the test tags as a combination of training tags. This setting occurs when various datasets are created using different annotation schemes. This is also the case of extending a tag-set with a new tag by annotating only the new tag in a new dataset. We propose to use the given tag hierarchy to jointly learn a neural network that shares its tagging layer among all tag-sets. We compare this model to combining independent models and to a model based on the multitasking approach. Our experiments show the benefit of the tag-hierarchy model, especially when facing non-trivial consolidation of tag-sets.

cs.CL↗