arXiv subjects

Osvaldo Simeone

Publications and source records attributed to Osvaldo Simeone.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

In-Context Learning for MIMO Turbo Receivers

Multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) turbo receivers iteratively exchange information between a soft-input soft-output detector and a decoder. Traditional implementations rely on pilot-based channel estimates, which can be poor in the case of short pilot sequences or mismatched channel models, resulting in significant performance degradation. To address this limitation, we introduce the EXTrinsic In-Context Learning Network (EXT-ICLNet), a Transformer-based detector that takes the pilots as in-context examples and is trained to approximate the symbol extrinsic posterior distribution given the pilots, without explicit channel estimation. EXT-ICLNet is thus compatible with existing turbo receivers, as it implements a log-domain prior skip connection, ensuring that the network learns only the extrinsic information. Numerical results for a $4\times4$ MIMO system with 16-QAM and a quantized front end show that EXT-ICLNet outperforms baselines based on explicit channel state information (CSI) estimation at low-to-medium signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), as well as expectation-propagation (EP) baselines with perfect CSI at high SNRs. The results are further validated by comparing the extrinsic information transfer (EXIT) charts of EXT-ICLNet, a neural EP baseline, and EXT-ICLNet without skip connection, demonstrating how EXT-ICLNet provides a more favorable transfer of a priori and extrinsic information.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

Post-Selection Distributional Model Evaluation

Formal model evaluation methods typically certify that a model satisfies a prescribed target key performance indicator (KPI) level. However, in many applications, the relevant target KPI level may not be known a priori, and the user may instead wish to compare candidate models by analyzing the full trade-offs between performance and reliability achievable at test time by the models. This task, requiring the reliable estimate of the test-time KPI distributions, is made more complicated by the fact that the same data must often be used both to pre-select a subset of candidate models and to estimate their KPI distributions, causing a potential post-selection bias. In this work, we introduce post-selection distributional model evaluation (PS-DME), a general framework for statistically valid distributional model assessment after arbitrary data-dependent model pre-selection. Building on e-values, PS-DME controls post-selection false coverage rate (FCR) for the distributional KPI estimates and we establish explicit conditions under which it is provably more sample efficient than a baseline method based on sample splitting. Experiments on synthetic data, text-to-SQL decoding with large language models, and telecom network performance evaluation demonstrate that PS-DME enables reliable comparison of candidate configurations across a range of reliability levels, supporting the statistically reliable exploration of performance--reliability trade-offs.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Online Conformal Prediction Beyond Feedback

Online conformal prediction (OCP) provides theoretically principled uncertainty quantification for arbitrary black-box classifiers and non-i.i.d. data streams by constructing prediction sets that are guaranteed to contain the true label at a user-specified frequency. OCP usually updates prediction sets using feedback from previously deployed predictions. We instead study an OCP setting *beyond feedback*: on each round, the learner can *either* output a prediction set *or* query the correct label, but not both. Thus, no deployed prediction is ever evaluated directly. We reduce this problem to a partial monitoring game in which prediction actions return no observation and a separate query action reveals the label. To solve this game, we develop *OCP with queries* (OCPQ), a label-efficient forecasting algorithm designed for this beyond-feedback setting. Using an adequate reward construction, for any black-box classifier and any (non-i.i.d.) oblivious data stream of length $T$, OCPQ has $O(T^{2/3})$ expected regret and expected coverage of at least $β-O(T^{-1/3})$ for a user-defined $β$, while querying only an expected $T^{-1/3}$ fraction of rounds. This provides coverage comparable to bandit-based OCP methods while requiring no feedback from deployed predictions. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Conformal Sequential Decision Making With Cost and Sublinear Policy Regret Guarantees

Automated decision makers, such as AI agents that control robots or network devices, must often satisfy hard cost constraints while maintaining competitive performance. In such settings, a cost measure, such as a safety violation rate, energy consumption, or a distortion level, must stay within a given budget in every episode of operation. Furthermore, a cumulative reward metric, accounting for per-step performance, must stay close to the reward of a meaningful reference policy. We formulate this setup as an episodic sequential decision problem in which the state sequence is arbitrary, and the reward and cost may depend on past actions within the same episode. We propose the online conformal episodic agent (OCEA), a policy that selects one candidate action per episode using a regret-controlled algorithm, and switches to a zero-cost action when the remaining budget cannot absorb the maximum cost of one more round. We prove that OCEA satisfies per-episode cost constraints for every state sequence and for every realization of its internal randomness, while achieving a sublinear expected policy regret with respect to the best action sequence in hindsight from a comparator class satisfying the same per-episode cost constraints. We apply OCEA to risk-averse control and online compression with distortion guarantees.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Reliable Narrowband Interference Detection via Backward Conformal Prediction

Narrowband interference can severely degrade the performance of wireless links by concentrating significant power on a small portion of the channel. Machine learning detectors trained on baseband I/Q samples can identify the affected subcarriers with high accuracy, surpassing model-based detectors that rely on hand-crafted statistics. The predictive probabilities produced by such detectors are, however, typically poorly calibrated, and downstream mitigation modules generally operate under strict resource budgets that limit the number of candidate interference subcarriers that can be acted upon. Conformal prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets that control the miscoverage level, i.e., the probability of excluding the true output, at a prescribed level. However, this target miscoverage level must be fixed in advance, while the resulting prediction-set size remains uncontrolled, which is misaligned with operationally constrained settings. To address this issue, we develop a backward conformal prediction (BCP) framework in which the prediction-set size is fixed by the operational budget and the corresponding per-input miscoverage level is estimated from calibration data with a provable post-hoc reliability guarantee. We instantiate the framework for narrowband interference detection in wireless systems and show through simulations that BCP yields reliable miscoverage estimates with accuracy comparable to that of both the uncalibrated and temperature-scaled baselines.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

Online Learning via Learned Latent Bayesian Tracking

Online learning in non-stationary environments requires models to adapt rapidly from streaming data under strict computational constraints. A principled approach casts online learning as Bayesian state tracking, where model parameters are updated sequentially via Bayesian filtering. However, applying Bayesian filters directly to modern deep models is computationally prohibitive due to the high dimensionality of parameter space, forcing existing methods to rely on restrictive approximations or manually designed low-dimensional subspaces. In this work, we identify the absence of a suitable low-dimensional dynamical representation as the core bottleneck in Bayesian filtering-based online learning. Accordingly, we propose Adaptive Update through Representation Adaptation (AURA), a meta-learning framework that learns offline a low-dimensional latent state-space model governing the evolution of optimal model parameters under distribution shift. Online adaptation is then performed via extended Kalman filtering in this learned latent space followed by reconstruction of the full model parameters through a learned lifting map, enabling efficient single-step online adaptation while preserving model expressiveness. Evaluated on online adaptation of neural wireless receivers under time-varying channels and on non-stationary image classification, AURA shows substantial improvements in adaptation speed, accuracy, and computational efficiency over existing online learning and Bayesian filtering baselines, demonstrating that an adaptation-aware latent geometry is beneficial for effective Bayesian online learning in high-dimensional models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

TerMeZO: Ternary Sparse Zeroth-Order Optimization for Fine-tuning BitNet Models at the Edge

Fine-tuning anguage models (LLMs) with first-order optimizers requires a memory several times larger than that required for inference. Memory-efficient zeroth-order optimization (MeZO) sidesteps this cost by estimating gradients from forward passes only. However, for BitNet architectures, a family of LLMs with ternary {-1,0,1\} weights and 8-bit activations, fine-tuning requires updating full-precision latent weights, and thus the memory footprint of MeZO no longer matches that of inference. A promising solution is to finetune only a subset of the latent weights, but existing sparse zeroth-order (ZO) methods either ignore the ternary structure or require first-order gradient information to build a sparse mask, which is at odds with the purpose of ZO fine-tuning. We propose TerMeZO, a sparse MeZO scheme that exploits the geometry of the ternary quantizer itself to identify the latent weights that are more likely to change values during fine-tuning, at no additional data or memory cost. Our convergence analysis shows that TerMeZO can converge faster than full-parameter MeZO, owing to its optimized reduction of the fine-tuning effective dimension. We run extensive experiments on BitNet models ranging from 1B to 3B parameters, spanning classification, instruction-following, and mathematical reasoning tasks. TerMeZO matches or exceeds the performance of full-parameter MeZO while substantially reducing the fine-tuning memory footprint.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Federated Martingale Posterior Samping

Federated Bayesian neural networks require fixing a prior on the model parameters, which is notoriously difficult, and misspecification of this prior can severely degrade accuracy and calibration. Motivated by the rapid progress of predictive models, the martingale posterior, also known as predictive Bayes, replaces the prior--likelihood pair with a predictive distribution and recovers parameter uncertainty by repeatedly drawing predictive samples and refitting the model. This letter proposes {federated martingale posterior} (FMP) sampling, a one-shot embarrassingly parallel protocol in which each client uploads a small set of trainable data embeddings and the server runs the predictive sampler centrally. Analysis of the sampling error demonstrates the impact of the dataset compression rate, while experiments show that FMP closely matches the centralized counterpart and achieves the lowest mean expected calibration error (ECE) among the evaluated one-shot federated methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Statistically Valid Post-Training Hyperparameter Selection: From Tuning to Guarantees

Post-training hyperparameter selection is a critical step in the deployment of modern artificial intelligence systems, given the need to tune degrees of freedom of pre-trained models such as inference-time parameters, implementation-level settings, and thresholds driving decision rules. Despite its practical importance, hyperparameter selection is typically performed using best-effort empirical methods such as grid search or Bayesian optimization, which provide no formal statistical guarantees on reliability or safety. This monograph, intended for an audience of signal processing and machine learning researchers, presents a unified statistical framework for reliable post-training hyperparameter selection, centered on the learn-then-test (LTT) paradigm. LTT formulates the hyperparameter selection problem as multiple hypothesis testing over a candidate set of hyperparameters. The framework enables the choice of hyperparameters that provably satisfy application-specific reliability requirements---such as bounds on average risk, quantile risk, or information-theoretic constraints---with explicit, finite-sample control of error probabilities. The supporting statistical machinery, namely p-values, e-values, and concentration inequalities, is developed from first principles.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Think Short, Defer Smart, Act, and Repeat: Calibrated Reasoning and Uncertainty-Aware Deferral for Edge LLM Agents

LLM agents following the ReAct paradigm are promising enablers of complex multi-step tasks, including multi-hop question answering, code generation, and control of physical AI systems. Yet, when deployed at the edge, they must tightly manage their reasoning budget while remaining reliable and deferring to a cloud-side model only when local uncertainty is too high to act safely. We propose Think Short, Defer Smart (TSDS), a framework that synergistically integrates a lightweight convergence probe, which halts on-device reasoning once the intended action has stabilized, with a perplexity-based deferral rule that escalates uncertain actions to a cloud-side model. Both mechanisms are jointly calibrated on end-to-end episode trajectories via a multi-objective Learn-Then-Test (LTT) procedure, providing simultaneous finite-sample guarantees on expected episode reward and cloud-call rate. We evaluate TSDS on four ReAct benchmarks spanning arithmetic reasoning (GSM8K), multi-hop question answering (HotpotQA), code generation (MBPP), and multi-step embodied planning (household robot), and compare against thought-calibration-only and calibrated-deferral-only standalone baselines. TSDS reduces per-episode thinking compute by 43%-65% over deferral-only baselines across HotpotQA, MBPP, and the household robot task, while maintaining certified reward and cloud-call rate guarantees.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Risk-Aware Online Conformal State Probing

AI-based autonomous agents, typically hosted at data centers, must acquire state information from robots or edge devices in order to issue informed control decisions. Managing uncertainty about the state is particularly consequential in safety-critical settings, in which average-case guarantees are insufficient. In this context, we study a sequential decision maker process that jointly decides which actions to take and when to probe given access to an arbitrary state prediction model. We propose online conformal state probing (OCSP), an action and probing policy that certifies worst-case reliability levels without relying on distributional assumptions. OCSP is designed to provably control the missed query error (MQE), i.e., the fraction of instances where probing would have been beneficial, while minimizing the probing rate. OCSP can be applied to existing pre-trained value-based control policies without requiring retraining or fine-tuning. We validate OCSP through numerical simulations to verify theoretical guarantees and to assess performance trade-offs as a function of the calibration of the state predictor.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

Post-Hoc Conformal Prediction for Reliable Wireless Communications

Deploying artificial intelligence (AI) in high-stakes wireless applications such as autonomous transportation requires guarantees of reliable operation. Such guarantees can often be obtained by designing systems that act on a set of predictions via conservative policies catering to all possible outcomes within the set. For instance, in location-based beam selection, a base station may identify a set of plausible locations and select a beam that ensures high capacity over the set. The miscoverage probability of the set with respect to the true outcome (e.g., the true user location) then quantifies the outage probability, while the size of the set determines the final performance or resource budget (e.g., the transmission capacity). Conventional conformal prediction (CP) applies when the target miscoverage level is prescribed in advance. However, in practical wireless systems, prediction sets may instead be selected under prescribed operational constraints, requiring the resulting miscoverage probability to be quantified post hoc. This paper develops a formal statistical framework for the data-driven selection of prediction sets that provides a reliable estimate of the resulting miscoverage probability. The methodology builds on backward CP and probably approximately correct CP, yielding distribution-free reliability guarantees on the miscoverage probability. We apply the framework on three distinct wireless applications: narrowband interference detection, near-field localization, and codebook-based beam identification. Numerical results validate the reliability guarantees and show that the proposed post-hoc conformal methods achieve accuracy comparable to the naive probability-based approach across all considered applications.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

Conformal Individual Treatment Effect Estimation under Networked Interference

Conformal counterfactual prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees for counterfactual outcomes and individual treatment effects under the no-interference assumption. In this work, we relax this assumption by allowing each unit's potential outcomes to depend on other units' treatments and covariates. In this setting, propensity-score reweighting does not restore weighted exchangeability, and existing methods may fail to achieve valid coverage. To address this issue, we develop interference-adjusted weighted conformal prediction that accounts for interference by constructing an observable upper bound on the ideal and unobserved conformal $p$-value under the target intervention. The resulting prediction sets provide finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees for counterfactual outcomes and individual treatment effects in both transductive and inductive settings. We also derive a sharper construction when intervention-induced changes in nonconformity scores are bounded. Numerical experiments show that our methods preserve nominal coverage, whereas existing methods may not.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Risk-Averse Decision Making with Multi-Level Reliability Guarantees

Many applications in engineering, including wireless broadcasting, require designs that provide performance certificates at different target outage levels. This paper studies the problem of maximizing the weighted average of such certificates in the presence of uncertainty about the true system state. The problem is shown to be equivalent to an optimization over nested prediction sets, connecting to the literature on conformal prediction and extending prior art on single-level risk-averse decision making. Furthermore, we derive a dual formulation that decouples optimization across input values. Numerical experiments on a diversity-based wireless transmission system illustrate the cost of enforcing multi-level certificates with a single shared policy and trace the Pareto trade-off between multiple reliability levels.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Risk-Averse Decision Making via Quantum Measurement Design

Quantum measurements are conventionally optimized to maximize the average of a utility that depends on the true state and on the measurement outcome. However, when the outcome of the measurement is used as an action within a larger decision-making system, the average utility does not capture the risk of poor outcomes. This letter addresses the design of quantum measurements that maximize a risk-averse objective given by the optimized certainty equivalent (OCE), a family of criteria that includes the average utility and the conditional value at risk (CVaR) as special cases. For a piecewise linear gain function, defining the OCE, thus including the CVaR, the problem is shown to reduce to a finite number of semidefinite programs, for which a dual formulation is derived. For the discrimination of two states, a closed-form solution is obtained that takes the form of a Helstrom measurement. Numerical results show that the optimized measurement improves the lower tail of the utility distribution at a moderate cost in average utility.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2026

Non-Coherent Over-the-Air Federated Learning: Protocol, Convergence, and Device Scheduling

To mitigate the scalability bottleneck in the radio access network (RAN) in federated edge learning (FEEL), over-the-air federated learning (AirFL) exploits waveform superposition over multiple-access channels (MACs) for analog model aggregation. However, coherent AirFL typically relies on stringent PHY-layer conditions such as accurate channel state information (CSI), tight time/frequency synchronization, and frequent transceiver calibration for signal alignment. However, these requirements, if not impossible to be met, incur substantial communication and computation overhead. In this paper, we propose a non-coherent AirFL (NCAirFL) protocol over a broadband single-antenna MAC, leveraging binary dithering, unbiased non-coherent detection, and long-term error feedback to waive the need for instantaneous CSI. For NCAirFL with general smooth non-convex objectives and a constant learning rate, we establish a convergence bound achieving the convergence rate in the same order of $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$ as communication-ideal FedAvg, where $T$ is the total number of communication rounds. To further improve communication efficiency under data and wireless resource heterogeneity, we also derive a lower bound on the expected single-round objective decrease in the global loss conditioned on device scheduling, building upon which a surrogate objective function is obtained for jointly optimal device selection and power control. Experimental results on MNIST and CIFAR-10 corroborate that NCAirFL achieves learning performance close to FedAvg in practical settings, with the proposed device scheduling policy substantially accelerating convergence.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2026

Decision Making Needs Uncertainty Quantification [Lecture Notes]

Many signal processing systems ultimately exist to act. Whenever the state variable that determines the action to be taken by a decision maker, or agent, is uncertain, the way that uncertainty is represented decides how well the agent performs and how much its performance can be trusted. This lecture note develops, from first principles and within a single decision-theoretic setting, the link between the {objective} and the knowledge of an agent and the form of uncertainty representation that is sufficient to act optimally. To start, assuming a known environment distribution, we show that a risk-neutral agent needs the posterior distribution over the state, whereas a risk-averse agent can rely without loss of optimality on a {prediction set} and a worst-case decision rule. We then turn to the case in which the environment is unknown, and identify three complementary approaches to address the resulting epistemic uncertainty: calibration of a fixed predictor, credal (ambiguity) sets with distributionally robust optimization, and Bayesian inference over model parameters. The common thread is that reliable decisions require an uncertainty representation matched to the decision objective and to the knowledge profile of the agent, together with a guarantee that certifies the utility the agent will actually obtain.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2026

Should I Use This Synthetic Dataset for Training? How to Test with Minimal Real Data

Digital twins (DTs) and learned world models are increasingly used to generate synthetic data that augment the scarce real datasets available for training artificial intelligence (AI) models in engineering systems. Owing to the inevitable simulation-to-reality (sim-to-real) gap, however, augmentation may fail to improve the performance of the trained model on the real data distribution. This paper addresses the resulting decision problem: Given a real dataset, a candidate synthetic dataset, and a fixed learning algorithm, decide whether training on the augmented dataset improves the true, population-level performance, while consuming as few real test data points as possible. Two formulations are considered: a direct test on the mean loss difference between the two trained models, and a symmetry-based test on the paired loss difference, which trades a stronger null assumption for faster evidence accumulation. For the latter, we introduce the {adaptive e-process sign-flip test} (aeSFT), a doubly adaptive procedure that adapts both the number of Monte Carlo sign-flip rounds, and hence the computational cost, and the amount of real test data consumed. aeSFT yields anytime-valid Type-I error control, with no need to pre-specify the test-set size. Experiments on a synthetic-data classification task, a DT-aided wireless packet-scheduling task, and a radio-map prediction task show that aeSFT identifies useful synthetic data using substantially fewer real test samples than mean-based sequential testing, matches the power of fixed-sample sign-flip testing and the paired $t$-test, while keeping the false-positive rate below the target level.

cs.AI↗