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Otso Ovaskainen

Publications and source records attributed to Otso Ovaskainen.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

Physics-Informed Learning for Robust Acoustic Localization with Calibrated Uncertainty

Recent advances in Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) offer an opportunity to obtain ecological spatial point-process data at unprecedented scale. However, realizing this opportunity necessitates the development of accurate and scalable localization methods. In real-world outdoor soundscapes, however, the assumptions underlying classical localization methods such as hyperbolic and score-based localization are routinely violated by multipath dominance, near-field effects, and complex propagation. Under these conditions, classical localization methods become brittle, with extreme errors possible even in small detection arrays. Rather than statistically replacing the underlying physics, we propose a method to refine it and increase robustness outside of ideal operating conditions: a learned model operating on physics-informed acoustic features corrects a fast hyperbolic solver where it produces implausible solutions, substantially reducing catastrophic worst-case errors while matching its median accuracy on field data. We further provide calibrated, geometry-aware uncertainty estimates suitable for propagation into downstream spatial models. Evaluating on distributed microphone arrays in real and simulated outdoor environments, we demonstrate that the proposed method yields robust, uncertainty-aware localization, providing a step toward scalable automated wildlife monitoring in complex acoustic environments.

stat.ML

ForestIR: Physics-Informed Forest Sound Simulation for Array-Based Bioacoustic Remote Sensing

Microphone array-based passive acoustic monitoring is increasingly used for biodiversity sensing in forests. However, design and evaluation of array systems and configurations remains difficult since field recordings are costly, difficult to reproduce, and provide limited control over forest and atmospheric conditions. We present ForestIR, a physics-informed and reproducible simulation framework that links forest and environmental conditions to microphone-array recordings for bioacoustic remote sensing. Through a more realistic sound propagation method and a systematic control over array design and environmental factors, ForestIR provides a practical simulation framework for optimizing array-based monitoring systems, especially for sound source localization purposes. ForestIR generates source-microphone impulse responses (IRs) under user-controlled forest and atmospheric conditions, and renders synthetic array recordings by convolving test signals with controlled background noise. We evaluate and demonstrate realistic features of ForestIR through experiments based on localization sensitivity to forest layout and atmospheric conditions, and also comparison between simulated IRs with sine-sweep IR measurements from a field experiment. ForestIR provides a practical way to test how forest and ground conditions, atmospheric state, and array geometry affect bioacoustic localization, and can support microphone-array design, robustness testing, and synthetic-data generation for passive acoustic monitoring.

eess.AS

Mixture-Constrained Max Pooling Improves Separation-Based Bird Species Classification

Bird species classification from field recordings remains challenging due to overlapping vocalizations and incomplete species labels. We study source separation as a preprocessing for bird species classification to improve multi-species detection. Specifically, we employ an ensemble of two separators, FTRNN and TF-Locoformer, both trained with mixture invariant training (MixIT). To address the false positive gain caused by separation errors in separated outputs, we propose mixture-constrained max pooling (MCM), which clips the predicted probability from each separated channel based on the corresponding species probability in the original mixture. The classifier is applied to each separated output and the original mixture independently, and MCM aggregates the predictions into a final per-species probability. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that the ensemble outperforms individual separators and MCM outperforms standard max pooling across multiple metrics, and reveal that separation leads to both true positive gain for present species and false positive gain for absent species.

eess.AS

Model-based indicators for co-clustered environments and species communities

Accurate biodiversity monitoring is essential for effective environmental policy, yet current practices often rely on arbitrarily defined ecosystems, communities, and ad-hoc indicator species, limiting cost-efficiency and reproducibility. We present a model-based framework that infers ecological sub-communities and corresponding indicators in terms of habitat and species from species survey data, such as large-scale arthropod abundance data used here as example. Environments and species are co-clustered using Bayesian decoupling for Poisson factorization. Latent, hierarchical regression relates observable habitat features to each subcommunity. Additionally, we propose a novel, model-based ranking of indicator species based on the learned subcommunities, generalizing classical approaches. This integrated approach motivates model-based ecosystem classification and indicator species selection, offering a scalable, reproducible pathway for biodiversity monitoring and informed conservation.

stat.AP

Scalable and robust regression models for continuous proportional data

Beta regression is used routinely for continuous proportional data, but it often encounters practical issues such as a lack of robustness to misspecification of the beta distribution and sensitivity to outliers. We develop an improved class of generalized linear models starting with the continuous binomial (cobin) distribution and further extending to dispersion mixtures of cobin distributions (micobin). The proposed cobin regression and micobin regression models have attractive robustness, computation, and flexibility properties. A key innovation is the Kolmogorov-Gamma data augmentation scheme, which facilitates Gibbs sampling for Bayesian computation, including in hierarchical cases involving nested, longitudinal, or spatial data. We demonstrate robustness, ability to handle responses exactly at the boundary (0 or 1), and computational efficiency relative to beta regression in simulation experiments and through analysis of the benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index of US lakes using lake watershed covariates.

stat.ME

Joint species distribution modeling of abundance data through latent variable barcodes

Accelerating global biodiversity loss has highlighted the role of complex relationships and shared patterns among species in determining their responses to environmental changes. The structure of an ecological community, represented by patterns of dependence among constituent species, signals its robustness more than individual species distributions. We focus on obtaining community-level insights based on underlying patterns in abundances of bird species in Finland. We propose \texttt{barcode}, a modeling framework to infer latent binary and continuous features of samples and species, expanding the class of concurrent ordinations. This approach introduces covariates and spatial autocorrelation hierarchically to facilitate ecological interpretations of the learned features. By analyzing 132 bird species counts, we infer the dominant environmental drivers of the community, species clusters and regions of common profile. Three of the learned drivers correspond to distinct climactic regions with different dominant forest types. Three further drivers are spatially heterogeneous and signal urban, agricultural, and wetland areas, respectively.

stat.AP

OptimOTU: Taxonomically aware OTU clustering with optimized thresholds and a bioinformatics workflow for metabarcoding data

To turn environmentally derived metabarcoding data into community matrices for ecological analysis, sequences must first be clustered into operational taxonomic units (OTUs). This task is particularly complex for data including large numbers of taxa with incomplete reference libraries. OptimOTU offers a taxonomically aware approach to OTU clustering. It uses a set of taxonomically identified reference sequences to choose optimal genetic distance thresholds for grouping each ancestor taxon into clusters which most closely match its descendant taxa. Then, query sequences are clustered according to preliminary taxonomic identifications and the optimized thresholds for their ancestor taxon. The process follows the taxonomic hierarchy, resulting in a full taxonomic classification of all the query sequences into named taxonomic groups as well as placeholder "pseudotaxa" which accommodate the sequences that could not be classified to a named taxon at the corresponding rank. The OptimOTU clustering algorithm is implemented as an R package, with computationally intensive steps implemented in C++ for speed, and incorporating open-source libraries for pairwise sequence alignment. Distances may also be calculated externally, and may be read from a UNIX pipe, allowing clustering of large datasets where the full distance matrix would be inconveniently large to store in memory. The OptimOTU bioinformatics pipeline includes a full workflow for paired-end Illumina sequencing data that incorporates quality filtering, denoising, artifact removal, taxonomic classification, and OTU clustering with OptimOTU. The OptimOTU pipeline is developed for use on high performance computing clusters, and scales to datasets with millions of reads per sample, and tens of thousands of samples.

q-bio.QM

Novel community data in ecology -- properties and prospects

New technologies for acquiring biological information such as eDNA, acoustic or optical sensors, make it possible to generate spatial community observations at unprecedented scales. The potential of these novel community data to standardize community observations at high spatial, temporal, and taxonomic resolution and at large spatial scale ('many rows and many columns') has been widely discussed, but so far, there has been little integration of these data with ecological models and theory. Here, we review these developments and highlight emerging solutions, focusing on statistical methods for analyzing novel community data, in particular joint species distribution models; the new ecological questions that can be answered with these data; and the potential implications of these developments for policy and conservation.

q-bio.PE

Covariate-informed latent interaction models: Addressing geographic & taxonomic bias in predicting bird-plant interactions

Reductions in natural habitats urge that we better understand species' interconnection and how biological communities respond to environmental changes. However, ecological studies of species' interactions are limited by their geographic and taxonomic focus which can distort our understanding of interaction dynamics. We focus on bird-plant interactions that refer to situations of potential fruit consumption and seed dispersal. We develop an approach for predicting species' interactions that accounts for errors in the recorded interaction networks, addresses the geographic and taxonomic biases of existing studies, is based on latent factors to increase flexibility and borrow information across species, incorporates covariates in a flexible manner to inform the latent factors, and uses a meta-analysis data set from 85 individual studies. We focus on interactions among 232 birds and 511 plants in the Atlantic Forest, and identify 5% of pairs of species with an unrecorded interaction, but posterior probability that the interaction is possible over 80%. Finally, we develop a permutation-based variable importance procedure for latent factor network models and identify that a bird's body mass and a plant's fruit diameter are important in driving the presence of species interactions, with a multiplicative relationship that exhibits both a thresholding and a matching behavior.

stat.ME

Bayesian semiparametric long memory models for discretized event data

We introduce a new class of semiparametric latent variable models for long memory discretized event data. The proposed methodology is motivated by a study of bird vocalizations in the Amazon rain forest; the timings of vocalizations exhibit self-similarity and long range dependence ruling out models based on Poisson processes. The proposed class of FRActional Probit (FRAP) models is based on thresholding of a latent process consisting of an additive expansion of a smooth Gaussian process with a fractional Brownian motion. We develop a Bayesian approach to inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo, and show good performance in simulation studies. Applying the methods to the Amazon bird vocalization data, we find substantial evidence for self-similarity and non-Markovian/Poisson dynamics. To accommodate the bird vocalization data, in which there are many different species of birds exhibiting their own vocalization dynamics, a hierarchical expansion of FRAP is provided in Supplementary Materials.

stat.ME

Bayesian nonparametric modelling of sequential discoveries

We aim at modelling the appearance of distinct tags in a sequence of labelled objects. Common examples of this type of data include words in a corpus or distinct species in a sample. These sequential discoveries are often summarised via accumulation curves, which count the number of distinct entities observed in an increasingly large set of objects. We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric method for species sampling modelling by directly specifying the probability of a new discovery, therefore allowing for flexible specifications. The asymptotic behavior and finite sample properties of such an approach are extensively studied. Interestingly, our enlarged class of sequential processes includes highly tractable special cases. We present a subclass of models characterized by appealing theoretical and computational properties. Moreover, due to strong connections with logistic regression models, the latter subclass can naturally account for covariates. We finally test our proposal on both synthetic and real data, with special emphasis on a large fungal biodiversity study in Finland.

stat.ME

A numerical approach to determine mutant invasion fitness and evolutionary singular strategies

We propose a numerical approach to study the invasion fitness of a mutant and to determine evolutionary singular strategies in evolutionary structured models in which the competitive exclusion principle holds. Our approach is based on a dual representation, which consists of the modelling of the small size mutant population by a stochastic model and the computation of its corresponding deterministic model. The use of the deterministic model greatly facilitates the numerical determination of the feasibility of invasion as well as the convergence-stability of the evolutionary singular strategy. Our approach combines standard adaptive dynamics with the link between the mutant survival criterion in the stochastic model and the sign of the eigenvalue in the corresponding deterministic model. We present our method in the context of a mass-structured individual-based chemostat model. We exploit a previously derived mathematical relationship between stochastic and deterministic representations of the mutant population in the chemostat model to derive a general numerical method for analyzing the invasion fitness in the stochastic models. Our method can be applied to the broad class of evolutionary models for which a link between the stochastic and deterministic invasion fitnesses can be established.

q-bio.PE

Immigration-extinction dynamics of stochastic populations

How high should be the rate of immigration into a stochastic population in order to significantly reduce the probability of observing the population extinct? Is there any relation between the population size distributions with and without immigration? Under what conditions can one justify the simple patch occupancy models which ignore the population distribution and its dynamics in a patch, and treat a patch simply as either occupied or empty? We address these questions by exactly solving a simple stochastic model obtained by adding a steady immigration to a variant of the Verhulst model: a prototypical model of an isolated stochastic population.

q-bio.PE

Stochastic models of population extinction

Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on biotic and abiotic factors. Classical work showed that demographic stochasticity causes the mean time to extinction to increase exponentially with population size, whereas variation in environmental conditions can lead to a power law scaling. Recent work has focused especially on the influence of the autocorrelation structure ("color") of environmental noise. In theoretical physics, there is a burst of research activity in analyzing large fluctuations in stochastic population dynamics. This research provides powerful tools for determining extinction times and characterizing the pathway to extinction. It yields, therefore, sharp insights into extinction processes and has great potential for further applications in theoretical biology.

q-bio.PE