arXiv subjects

Oyvind Tafjord

Publications and source records attributed to Oyvind Tafjord.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Visual prompt engineering for video models

In the age of foundation models, a model is only as good as its prompt. For this reason, prompt engineering has become an essential technique for improving language model performance. Since video models are currently becoming foundation models for visual tasks (e.g., visual reasoning), we here ask whether they similarly benefit from visual prompt engineering: automatically modifying the task image to improve model performance. For example, for a visual physics reasoning task ("Where does the ball land, after passing a set of obstacles?"), an abstract sketch-like scene can be turned into a photorealistic version with a simple call to an image editing model. We find that visual prompt engineering, or VIPE for short, improves video reasoning performance across tasks. In fact, for video models, visual prompt engineering can be even more effective than classic text-based prompt engineering or test-time scaling. Ultimately, just as text-based prompt engineering systematically improves language model performance, visual prompt engineering can serve as a simple, compute-efficient approach to elicit better visual reasoning performance from video models. Example videos on our project page at https://visual-prompt-engineering.github.io/.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

PreScience: A Dataset and Benchmark for Scientific Forecasting

Can AI systems trained on the existing scientific record forecast the advances that will follow? We introduce PreScience, a dataset and benchmark for scientific forecasting built around 98K recent AI research papers, together with companion papers covering author publication histories and citation links, yielding 502K papers in total. The resulting paper records include titles, abstracts, disambiguated author identities, influential references, topic labels, citation trajectories, and metadata snapshotted to respect temporal cutoffs. We instantiate seven exemplar tasks: five paper-anchored tasks -- contribution generation, collaborator prediction, prior work selection, citation count prediction, and future combination prediction -- and two aggregate topic trend forecasting variants. We develop baselines ranging from simple heuristics and embedding methods to frontier language models and agentic systems, and introduce LACER, an LLM-based metric for evaluating similarity of generated contribution descriptions that agrees better with human judgments than existing metrics. Finally, we compose task models to generate a 12-month synthetic corpus and find that the resulting papers are systematically less diverse and less novel than human-authored research from the same period. We release the PreScience dataset (https://huggingface.co/datasets/allenai/prescience) and code (https://github.com/allenai/prescience).

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

SimpleToM: Exposing the Gap between Explicit ToM Inference and Implicit ToM Application in LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly tested for a "Theory of Mind" (ToM) - the ability to attribute mental states to oneself and others. Yet most evaluations stop at explicit belief attribution in classical toy stories or stylized tasks, leaving open the questions of whether LLMs can implicitly apply such knowledge to predict human behavior, or to judge an observed behavior, in diverse scenarios. We introduce SimpleToM, a benchmark that advances ToM evaluation along two novel axes. First, it probes multiple levels of ToM reasoning, from mental state inference (explicit ToM) to behavior prediction and judgment (applied ToM). Second, it situates these tasks in diverse, everyday scenarios - such as supermarkets, hospitals, schools, and offices - where information asymmetries naturally arise (e.g., hidden defects in grocery store items, incomplete information in provider-patient interactions, or restricted access to locked devices). SimpleToM contains concise stories (e.g., "The can of Pringles has moldy chips in it. Mary picks up the can in the supermarket and walks to the cashier."), each with three questions that test different degrees of ToM reasoning, asking models to predict: (a) mental states ("Is Mary aware of the mold?"), (b) behaviors ("Will Mary pay for the chips or report the mold?"), and (c) judgments ("Mary paid for the chips. Was that reasonable?"). Experiments reveal a striking gap: state-of-the-art models often reliably infer mental state (a), but fail at applying knowledge about the mental state for secondary predictions, with performance dropping sharply for behavior prediction (b) and further for behavior judgment (c). This exposes a critical fragility in LLMs' social reasoning in terms of what they know (explicit ToM) versus how well they can implicitly apply that knowledge for predictions (applied ToM).

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Neologism Learning for Controllability and Self-Verbalization

Humans invent new words when there is a rising demand for a new useful concept (e.g., doomscrolling). We explore and validate a similar idea in our communication with LLMs: introducing new words to better understand and control the models, expanding on the recently introduced neologism learning. This method introduces a new word by adding a new word embedding and training with examples that exhibit the concept with no other changes in model parameters. We show that adding a new word allows for control of concepts such as flattery, incorrect answers, text length, as well as more complex concepts in AxBench. We discover that neologisms can also further our understanding of the model via self-verbalization: models can describe what each new word means to them in natural language, like explaining that a word that represents a concept of incorrect answers means ``a lack of complete, coherent, or meaningful answers...'' To validate self-verbalizations, we introduce plug-in evaluation: we insert the verbalization into the context of a model and measure whether it controls the target concept. In some self-verbalizations, we find machine-only synonyms: words that seem unrelated to humans but cause similar behavior in machines. Finally, we show how neologism learning can jointly learn multiple concepts in multiple words.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

2 OLMo 2 Furious

We present OLMo 2, the next generation of our fully open language models. OLMo 2 includes a family of dense autoregressive language models at 7B, 13B and 32B scales with fully released artifacts -- model weights, full training data, training code and recipes, training logs and thousands of intermediate checkpoints. In this work, we describe our modified model architecture and training recipe, focusing on techniques for achieving better training stability and improved per-token efficiency. Our updated pretraining data mixture introduces a new, specialized data mix called Dolmino Mix 1124, which significantly improves model capabilities across many downstream task benchmarks when introduced via late-stage curriculum training (i.e. specialized data during the annealing phase of pretraining). Finally, we incorporate best practices from Tülu 3 to develop OLMo 2-Instruct, focusing on permissive data and extending our final-stage reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). Our OLMo 2 base models sit at the Pareto frontier of performance to training compute, often matching or outperforming open-weight only models like Llama 3.1, Qwen 2.5, and Gemma 2 while using fewer FLOPs and with fully transparent training data, code, and recipe. Our fully open OLMo 2-Instruct models are competitive with open-weight only models of comparable size and even some proprietary models like GPT-3.5 Turbo and GPT 4o Mini.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Establishing Task Scaling Laws via Compute-Efficient Model Ladders

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: (1) use model and data size to predict an intermediate loss, then (2) use it to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks formatted as ranked classification, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We find that tasks with higher prediction error also have higher variance in the metrics over model checkpoints. We also contrast multiple design choices for predicting accuracy, and present recommendations for extending our method to new models and tasks.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

DataDecide: How to Predict Best Pretraining Data with Small Experiments

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide -- the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e.g., 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) (~80% of com parisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval >80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0.01% of the compute.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Because we have LLMs, we Can and Should Pursue Agentic Interpretability

The era of Large Language Models (LLMs) presents a new opportunity for interpretability--agentic interpretability: a multi-turn conversation with an LLM wherein the LLM proactively assists human understanding by developing and leveraging a mental model of the user, which in turn enables humans to develop better mental models of the LLM. Such conversation is a new capability that traditional `inspective' interpretability methods (opening the black-box) do not use. Having a language model that aims to teach and explain--beyond just knowing how to talk--is similar to a teacher whose goal is to teach well, understanding that their success will be measured by the student's comprehension. While agentic interpretability may trade off completeness for interactivity, making it less suitable for high-stakes safety situations with potentially deceptive models, it leverages a cooperative model to discover potentially superhuman concepts that can improve humans' mental model of machines. Agentic interpretability introduces challenges, particularly in evaluation, due to what we call `human-entangled-in-the-loop' nature (humans responses are integral part of the algorithm), making the design and evaluation difficult. We discuss possible solutions and proxy goals. As LLMs approach human parity in many tasks, agentic interpretability's promise is to help humans learn the potentially superhuman concepts of the LLMs, rather than see us fall increasingly far from understanding them.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Tulu 3: Pushing Frontiers in Open Language Model Post-Training

Language model post-training is applied to refine behaviors and unlock new skills across a wide range of recent language models, but open recipes for applying these techniques lag behind proprietary ones. The underlying training data and recipes for post-training are simultaneously the most important pieces of the puzzle and the portion with the least transparency. To bridge this gap, we introduce Tulu 3, a family of fully-open state-of-the-art post-trained models, alongside its data, code, and training recipes, serving as a comprehensive guide for modern post-training techniques. Tulu 3, which builds on Llama 3.1 base models, achieves results surpassing the instruct versions of Llama 3.1, Qwen 2.5, Mistral, and even closed models such as GPT-4o-mini and Claude 3.5-Haiku. The training algorithms for our models include supervised finetuning (SFT), Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), and a novel method we call Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). With Tulu 3, we introduce a multi-task evaluation scheme for post-training recipes with development and unseen evaluations, standard benchmark implementations, and substantial decontamination of existing open datasets on said benchmarks. We conclude with analysis and discussion of training methods that did not reliably improve performance. In addition to the Tulu 3 model weights and demo, we release the complete recipe -- including datasets for diverse core skills, a robust toolkit for data curation and evaluation, the training code and infrastructure, and, most importantly, a detailed report for reproducing and further adapting the Tulu 3 approach to more domains.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

CodeScientist: End-to-End Semi-Automated Scientific Discovery with Code-based Experimentation

Despite the surge of interest in autonomous scientific discovery (ASD) of software artifacts (e.g., improved ML algorithms), current ASD systems face two key limitations: (1) they largely explore variants of existing codebases or similarly constrained design spaces, and (2) they produce large volumes of research artifacts (such as automatically generated papers and code) that are typically evaluated using conference-style paper review with limited evaluation of code. In this work we introduce CodeScientist, a novel ASD system that frames ideation and experiment construction as a form of genetic search jointly over combinations of research articles and codeblocks defining common actions in a domain (like prompting a language model). We use this paradigm to conduct hundreds of automated experiments on machine-generated ideas broadly in the domain of agents and virtual environments, with the system returning 19 discoveries, 6 of which were judged as being both at least minimally sound and incrementally novel after a multi-faceted evaluation beyond that typically conducted in prior work, including external (conference-style) review, code review, and replication attempts. Moreover, the discoveries span new tasks, agents, metrics, and data, suggesting a qualitative shift from benchmark optimization to broader discoveries.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Answer, Assemble, Ace: Understanding How LMs Answer Multiple Choice Questions

Multiple-choice question answering (MCQA) is a key competence of performant transformer language models that is tested by mainstream benchmarks. However, recent evidence shows that models can have quite a range of performance, particularly when the task format is diversified slightly (such as by shuffling answer choice order). In this work we ask: how do successful models perform formatted MCQA? We employ vocabulary projection and activation patching methods to localize key hidden states that encode relevant information for predicting the correct answer. We find that the prediction of a specific answer symbol is causally attributed to a few middle layers, and specifically their multi-head self-attention mechanisms. We show that subsequent layers increase the probability of the predicted answer symbol in vocabulary space, and that this probability increase is associated with a sparse set of attention heads with unique roles. We additionally uncover differences in how different models adjust to alternative symbols. Finally, we demonstrate that a synthetic task can disentangle sources of model error to pinpoint when a model has learned formatted MCQA, and show that logit differences between answer choice tokens continue to grow over the course of training.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

OLMoE: Open Mixture-of-Experts Language Models

We introduce OLMoE, a fully open, state-of-the-art language model leveraging sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE). OLMoE-1B-7B has 7 billion (B) parameters but uses only 1B per input token. We pretrain it on 5 trillion tokens and further adapt it to create OLMoE-1B-7B-Instruct. Our models outperform all available models with similar active parameters, even surpassing larger ones like Llama2-13B-Chat and DeepSeekMoE-16B. We present various experiments on MoE training, analyze routing in our model showing high specialization, and open-source all aspects of our work: model weights, training data, code, and logs.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

OLMES: A Standard for Language Model Evaluations

Progress in AI is often demonstrated by new models claiming improved performance on tasks measuring model capabilities. Evaluating language models can be particularly challenging, as choices of how a model is evaluated on a task can lead to large changes in measured performance. There is no common standard setup, so different models are evaluated on the same tasks in different ways, leading to claims about which models perform best not being reproducible. We propose OLMES, a completely documented, practical, open standard for reproducible LLM evaluations. In developing this standard, we identify and review the varying factors in evaluation practices adopted by the community - such as details of prompt formatting, choice of in-context examples, probability normalizations, and task formulation. In particular, OLMES supports meaningful comparisons between smaller base models that require the unnatural "cloze" formulation of multiple-choice questions against larger models that can utilize the original formulation. OLMES includes well-considered, documented recommendations guided by results from existing literature as well as new experiments resolving open questions.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

From Models to Microtheories: Distilling a Model's Topical Knowledge for Grounded Question Answering

Recent reasoning methods (e.g., chain-of-thought, entailment reasoning) help users understand how language models (LMs) answer a single question, but they do little to reveal the LM's overall understanding, or "theory," about the question's topic, making it still hard to trust the model. Our goal is to materialize such theories - here called microtheories (a linguistic analog of logical microtheories) - as a set of sentences encapsulating an LM's core knowledge about a topic. These statements systematically work together to entail answers to a set of questions to both engender trust and improve performance. Our approach is to first populate a knowledge store with (model-generated) sentences that entail answers to training questions and then distill those down to a core microtheory that is concise, general, and non-redundant. We show that, when added to a general corpus (e.g., Wikipedia), microtheories can supply critical, topical information not necessarily present in the corpus, improving both a model's ability to ground its answers to verifiable knowledge (i.e., show how answers are systematically entailed by documents in the corpus, fully grounding up to +8% more answers), and the accuracy of those grounded answers (up to +8% absolute). We also show that, in a human evaluation in the medical domain, our distilled microtheories contain a significantly higher concentration of topically critical facts than the non-distilled knowledge store. Finally, we show we can quantify the coverage of a microtheory for a topic (characterized by a dataset) using a notion of $p$-relevance. Together, these suggest that microtheories are an efficient distillation of an LM's topic-relevant knowledge, that they can usefully augment existing corpora, and can provide both performance gains and an interpretable, verifiable window into the model's knowledge of a topic.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Paloma: A Benchmark for Evaluating Language Model Fit

Evaluations of language models (LMs) commonly report perplexity on monolithic data held out from training. Implicitly or explicitly, this data is composed of domains--varying distributions of language. We introduce Perplexity Analysis for Language Model Assessment (Paloma), a benchmark to measure LM fit to 546 English and code domains, instead of assuming perplexity on one distribution extrapolates to others. We include two new datasets of the top 100 subreddits (e.g., r/depression on Reddit) and programming languages (e.g., Java on GitHub), both sources common in contemporary LMs. With our benchmark, we release 6 baseline 1B LMs carefully controlled to provide fair comparisons about which pretraining corpus is best and code for others to apply those controls to their own experiments. Our case studies demonstrate how the fine-grained results from Paloma surface findings such as that models pretrained without data beyond Common Crawl exhibit anomalous gaps in LM fit to many domains or that loss is dominated by the most frequently occurring strings in the vocabulary.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

DISCOVERYWORLD: A Virtual Environment for Developing and Evaluating Automated Scientific Discovery Agents

Automated scientific discovery promises to accelerate progress across scientific domains. However, developing and evaluating an AI agent's capacity for end-to-end scientific reasoning is challenging as running real-world experiments is often prohibitively expensive or infeasible. In this work we introduce DISCOVERYWORLD, the first virtual environment for developing and benchmarking an agent's ability to perform complete cycles of novel scientific discovery. DISCOVERYWORLD contains a variety of different challenges, covering topics as diverse as radioisotope dating, rocket science, and proteomics, to encourage development of general discovery skills rather than task-specific solutions. DISCOVERYWORLD itself is an inexpensive, simulated, text-based environment (with optional 2D visual overlay). It includes 120 different challenge tasks, spanning eight topics each with three levels of difficulty and several parametric variations. Each task requires an agent to form hypotheses, design and run experiments, analyze results, and act on conclusions. DISCOVERYWORLD further provides three automatic metrics for evaluating performance, based on (a) task completion, (b) task-relevant actions taken, and (c) the discovered explanatory knowledge. We find that strong baseline agents, that perform well in prior published environments, struggle on most DISCOVERYWORLD tasks, suggesting that DISCOVERYWORLD captures some of the novel challenges of discovery, and thus that DISCOVERYWORLD may help accelerate near-term development and assessment of scientific discovery competency in agents. Code available at: www.github.com/allenai/discoveryworld

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Enhancing Systematic Decompositional Natural Language Inference Using Informal Logic

Recent language models enable new opportunities for structured reasoning with text, such as the construction of intuitive, proof-like textual entailment trees without relying on brittle formal logic. However, progress in this direction has been hampered by a long-standing lack of a clear protocol for determining what valid compositional entailment is. This absence causes noisy datasets and limited performance gains by modern neuro-symbolic engines. To address these problems, we formulate a consistent and theoretically grounded approach to annotating decompositional entailment and evaluate its impact on LLM-based textual inference. We find that our new dataset, RDTE (Recognizing Decompositional Textual Entailment), has a substantially higher internal consistency (+9%) than prior decompositional entailment datasets. We also find that training an RDTE-oriented entailment classifier via knowledge distillation and employing it in an entailment tree reasoning engine significantly improves both accuracy and proof quality, illustrating the practical benefit of this advance for textual inference.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Digital Socrates: Evaluating LLMs through Explanation Critiques

While LLMs can provide reasoned explanations along with their answers, the nature and quality of those explanations are still poorly understood. In response, our goal is to define a detailed way of characterizing the explanation capabilities of modern models and to create a nuanced, interpretable explanation evaluation tool that can generate such characterizations automatically, without relying on expensive API calls or human annotations. Our approach is to (a) define the new task of explanation critiquing - identifying and categorizing any main flaw in an explanation and providing suggestions to address the flaw, (b) create a sizeable, human-verified dataset for this task, and (c) train an open-source, automatic critique model (called Digital Socrates) using this data. Through quantitative and qualitative analysis, we demonstrate how Digital Socrates is useful for revealing insights about student models by examining their reasoning chains, and how it can provide high-quality, nuanced, automatic evaluation of those model explanations for the first time. Digital Socrates thus fills an important gap in evaluation tools for understanding and improving the explanation behavior of models.

cs.CL↗