arXiv subjects

Péter Koltai

Publications and source records attributed to Péter Koltai.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Kernel Autocovariance Operators of Stationary Processes: Estimation and Convergence

We consider autocovariance operators of a stationary stochastic process on a Polish space that is embedded into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We investigate how empirical estimates of these operators converge along realizations of the process under various conditions. In particular, we examine ergodic and strongly mixing processes and obtain several asymptotic results as well as finite sample error bounds. We provide applications of our theory in terms of consistency results for kernel PCA with dependent data and the conditional mean embedding of transition probabilities. Finally, we use our approach to examine the nonparametric estimation of Markov transition operators and highlight how our theory can give a consistency analysis for a large family of spectral analysis methods including kernel-based dynamic mode decomposition.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Data-driven modelling of nonlinear dynamics by barycentric coordinates and memory

We present a numerical method to model dynamical systems from data. We use the recently introduced method Scalable Probabilistic Approximation (SPA) to project points from a Euclidean space to convex polytopes and represent these projected states of a system in new, lower-dimensional coordinates denoting their position in the polytope. We then introduce a specific nonlinear transformation to construct a model of the dynamics in the polytope and to transform back into the original state space. To overcome the potential loss of information from the projection to a lower-dimensional polytope, we use memory in the sense of the delay-embedding theorem of Takens. By construction, our method produces stable models. We illustrate the capacity of the method to reproduce even chaotic dynamics and attractors with multiple connected components on various examples.

math.DS↗

arXiv2022

Large-scale flow in a cubic Rayleigh-Bénard cell: Long-term turbulence statistics and Markovianity of macrostate transitions

We investigate the large-scale circulation (LSC) in a turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection flow in a cubic closed convection cell by means of direct numerical simulations at a Rayleigh number $Ra=10^6$. The numerical studies are conducted for single flow trajectories up to $10^5$ convective free-fall times to obtain a sufficient sampling of the four discrete LSC states, which can be summarized to one macrostate, and the two crossover configurations which are taken by the flow in between for short periods. We find that large-scale dynamics depends strongly on the Prandtl number $Pr$ of the fluid which has values of 0.1, 0.7, and 10. Alternatively, we run an ensemble of 3600 short-term direct numerical simulations to study the transition probabilities between the discrete LSC states. This second approach is also used to probe the Markov property of the dynamics. Our ensemble analysis gave strong indication of Markovianity of the transition process from one LSC state to another, even though the data are still accompanied by considerable noise. It is based on the eigenvalue spectrum of the transition probability matrix, further on the distribution of persistence times and the joint distribution of two successive macrostate persistence times.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2021

Definition, detection, and tracking of persistent structures in atmospheric flows

Long-lived flow patterns in the atmosphere such as weather fronts, mid-latitude blockings or tropical cyclones often induce extreme weather conditions. As a consequence, their description, detection, and tracking has received increasing attention in recent years. Similar objectives also arise in diverse fields such as turbulence and combustion research, image analysis, and medical diagnostics under the headlines of "feature tracking", "coherent structure detection" or "image registration" - to name just a few. A host of different approaches to addressing the underlying, often very similar, tasks have been developed and successfully used. Here, several typical examples of such approaches are summarized, further developed and applied to meteorological data sets. Common abstract operational steps form the basis for a unifying framework for the specification of "persistent structures" involving the definition of the physical state of a system, the features of interest, and means of measuring their persistence.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Optimal Reaction Coordinates: Variational Characterization and Sparse Computation

Reaction Coordinates (RCs) are indicators of hidden, low-dimensional mechanisms that govern the long-term behavior of high-dimensional stochastic processes. We present a novel and general variational characterization of optimal RCs and provide conditions for their existence. Optimal RCs are minimizers of a certain loss function and reduced models based on them guarantee very good approximation of the long-term dynamics of the original high-dimensional process. We show that, for slow-fast systems, metastable systems, and other systems with known good RCs, the novel theory reproduces previous insight. Remarkably, the numerical effort required to evaluate the loss function scales only with the complexity of the underlying, low-dimensional mechanism, and not with that of the full system. The theory provided lays the foundation for an efficient and data-sparse computation of RCs via modern machine learning techniques.

math.DS↗

arXiv2021

Transfer Operators from Optimal Transport Plans for Coherent Set Detection

The topic of this study lies in the intersection of two fields. One is related with analyzing transport phenomena in complicated flows.For this purpose, we use so-called coherent sets: non-dispersing, possibly moving regions in the flow's domain. The other is concerned with reconstructing a flow field from observing its action on a measure, which we address by optimal transport. We show that the framework of optimal transport is well suited for delivering the formal requirements on which a coherent-set analysis can be based on. The necessary noise-robustness requirement of coherence can be matched by the computationally efficient concept of unbalanced regularized optimal transport. Moreover, the applied regularization can be interpreted as an optimal way of retrieving the full dynamics given the extremely restricted information of an initial and a final distribution of particles moving according to Brownian motion.

math.NA↗

arXiv2021

Statistical Analysis of Tipping Pathways in Agent-Based Models

Agent-based models are a natural choice for modeling complex social systems. In such models simple stochastic interaction rules for a large population of individuals can lead to emergent dynamics on the macroscopic scale, for instance a sudden shift of majority opinion or behavior. Here, we are concerned with studying noise-induced tipping between relevant subsets of the agent state space representing characteristic configurations. Due to the large number of interacting individuals, agent-based models are high-dimensional, though usually a lower-dimensional structure of the emerging collective behaviour exists. We therefore apply Diffusion Maps, a non-linear dimension reduction technique, to reveal the intrinsic low-dimensional structure. We characterize the tipping behaviour by means of Transition Path Theory, which helps gaining a statistical understanding of the tipping paths such as their distribution, flux and rate. By systematically studying two agent-based models that exhibit a multitude of tipping pathways and cascading effects, we illustrate the practicability of our approach.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Spectral Properties of Effective Dynamics from Conditional Expectations

The reduction of high-dimensional systems to effective models on a smaller set of variables is an essential task in many areas of science. For stochastic dynamics governed by diffusion processes, a general procedure to find effective equations is the conditioning approach. In this paper, we are interested in the spectrum of the generator of the resulting effective dynamics, and how it compares to the spectrum of the full generator. We prove a new relative error bound in terms of the eigenfunction approximation error for reversible systems. We also present numerical examples indicating that if Kramers--Moyal (KM) type approximations are used to compute the spectrum of the reduced generator, it seems largely insensitive to the time window used for the KM estimators. We analyze the implications of these observations for systems driven by underdamped Langevin dynamics, and show how meaningful effective dynamics can be defined in this setting.

math.DS↗

arXiv2020

Memory-based reduced modelling and data-based estimation of opinion spreading

We investigate opinion dynamics based on an agent-based model, and are interested in predicting the evolution of the percentages of the entire agent population that share an opinion. Since these opinion percentages can be seen as an aggregated observation of the full system state, the individual opinions of each agent, we view this in the framework of the Mori-Zwanzig projection formalism. More specifically, we show how to estimate a nonlinear autoregressive model (NAR) with memory from data given by a time series of opinion percentages, and discuss its prediction capacities for various specific topologies of the agent interaction network. We demonstrate that the inclusion of memory terms significantly improves the prediction quality on examples with different network topologies.

math.DS↗

arXiv2020

Extending Transition Path Theory: Periodically-Driven and Finite-Time Dynamics

Given two distinct subsets $A,B$ in the state space of some dynamical system, Transition Path Theory (TPT) was successfully used to describe the statistical behavior of transitions from $A$ to $B$ in the ergodic limit of the stationary system. We derive generalizations of TPT that remove the requirements of stationarity and of the ergodic limit, and provide this powerful tool for the analysis of other dynamical scenarios: periodically forced dynamics and time-dependent finite-time systems. This is partially motivated by studying applications such as climate, ocean, and social dynamics. On simple model examples we show how the new tools are able to deliver quantitative understanding about the statistical behavior of such systems. We also point out explicit cases where the more general dynamical regimes show different behaviors to their stationary counterparts, linking these tools directly to bifurcations in non-deterministic systems.

math.DS↗

arXiv2020

Computation and optimal perturbation of finite-time coherent sets for aperiodic flows without trajectory integration

Understanding the macroscopic behavior of dynamical systems is an important tool to unravel transport mechanisms in complex flows. A decomposition of the state space into coherent sets is a popular way to reveal this essential macroscopic evolution. To compute coherent sets from an aperiodic time-dependent dynamical system we consider the relevant transfer operators and their infinitesimal generators on an augmented space-time manifold. This space-time generator approach avoids trajectory integration, and creates a convenient linearization of the aperiodic evolution. This linearization can be further exploited to create a simple and effective spectral optimization methodology for diminishing or enhancing coherence. We obtain explicit solutions for these optimization problems using Lagrange multipliers and illustrate this technique by increasing and decreasing mixing of spatial regions through small velocity field perturbations.

math.DS↗

arXiv2020

Dimensionality Reduction of Complex Metastable Systems via Kernel Embeddings of Transition Manifolds

We present a novel kernel-based machine learning algorithm for identifying the low-dimensional geometry of the effective dynamics of high-dimensional multiscale stochastic systems. Recently, the authors developed a mathematical framework for the computation of optimal reaction coordinates of such systems that is based on learning a parametrization of a low-dimensional transition manifold in a certain function space. In this article, we enhance this approach by embedding and learning this transition manifold in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, exploiting the favorable properties of kernel embeddings. Under mild assumptions on the kernel, the manifold structure is shown to be preserved under the embedding, and distortion bounds can be derived. This leads to a more robust and more efficient algorithm compared to previous parametrization approaches.

math.DS↗

arXiv2019

Diffusion maps embedding and transition matrix analysis of the large-scale flow structure in turbulent Rayleigh--Bénard convection

By utilizing diffusion maps embedding and transition matrix analysis we investigate sparse temperature measurement time-series data from Rayleigh--Bénard convection experiments in a cylindrical container of aspect ratio $Γ=D/L=0.5$ between its diameter ($D$) and height ($L$). We consider the two cases of a cylinder at rest and rotating around its cylinder axis. We find that the relative amplitude of the large-scale circulation (LSC) and its orientation inside the container at different points in time are associated to prominent geometric features in the embedding space spanned by the two dominant diffusion-maps eigenvectors. From this two-dimensional embedding we can measure azimuthal drift and diffusion rates, as well as coherence times of the LSC. In addition, we can distinguish from the data clearly the single roll state (SRS), when a single roll extends through the whole cell, from the double roll state (DRS), when two counter-rotating rolls are on top of each other. Based on this embedding we also build a transition matrix (a discrete transfer operator), whose eigenvectors and eigenvalues reveal typical time scales for the stability of the SRS and DRS as well as for the azimuthal drift velocity of the flow structures inside the cylinder. Thus, the combination of nonlinear dimension reduction and dynamical systems tools enables to gain insight into turbulent flows without relying on model assumptions.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2019

Lagrangian coherent sets in turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection

Coherent circulation rolls and their relevance for the turbulent heat transfer in a two-dimensional Rayleigh--Bénard convection model are analyzed. The flow is in a closed cell of aspect ratio four at a Rayleigh number ${\rm Ra}=10^6$ and at a Prandtl number ${\rm Pr}=10$. Three different Lagrangian analysis techniques based on graph Laplacians -- distance spectral trajectory clustering, time-averaged diffusion maps and finite-element based dynamic Laplacian discretization -- are used to monitor the turbulent fields along trajectories of massless Lagrangian particles in the evolving turbulent convection flow. The three methods are compared to each other and the obtained coherent sets are related to results from an analysis in the Eulerian frame of reference. We show that the results of these methods agree with each other and that Lagrangian and Eulerian coherent sets form basically a disjoint union of the flow domain. Additionally, a windowed time-averaging of variable interval length is performed to study the degree of coherence as a function of this additional coarse graining which removes small-scale fluctuations that cause trajectories to disperse quickly. Finally, the coherent set framework is extended to study heat transport.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2019

Fréchet differentiable drift dependence of Perron--Frobenius and Koopman operators for non-deterministic dynamics

We consider Perron-Frobenius and Koopman operators associated to time-inhomogeneous ordinary stochastic differential equations, and establish their Fréchet differentiability with respect to the drift. This result relies on a similar differentiability result for pathwise expectations of path functionals of the solution of the stochastic differential equation, which we establish using Girsanov's formula. We demonstrate the significance of our result in the context of dynamical systems and operator theory, by proving continuously differentiable drift dependence of the simple eigen- and singular values and the corresponding eigen- and singular functions of the stochastic Perron-Frobenius and Koopman operators.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Network Measures of Mixing

Transport and mixing processes in fluid flows can be studied directly from Lagrangian trajectory data, such as obtained from particle tracking experiments. Recent work in this context highlights the application of graph-based approaches, where trajectories serve as nodes and some similarity or distance measure between them is employed to build a (possibly weighted) network, which is then analyzed using spectral methods. Here, we consider the simplest case of an unweighted, undirected network and analytically relate local network measures such as node degree or clustering coefficient to flow structures. In particular, we use these local measures to divide the family of trajectories into groups of similar dynamical behavior via manifold learning methods.

math.DS↗

arXiv2019

Revealing the intrinsic geometry of finite dimensional invariant sets of infinite dimensional dynamical systems

Embedding techniques allow the approximations of finite dimensional attractors and manifolds of infinite dimensional dynamical systems via subdivision and continuation methods. These approximations give a topological one-to-one image of the original set. In order to additionally reveal their geometry we use diffusion mapst o find intrinsic coordinates. We illustrate our results on the unstable manifold of the one-dimensional Kuramoto--Sivashinsky equation, as well as for the attractor of the Mackey-Glass delay differential equation.

math.DS↗

arXiv2018

From large deviations to semidistances of transport and mixing: coherence analysis for finite Lagrangian data

One way to analyze complicated non-autonomous flows is through trying to understand their transport behavior. In a quantitative, set-oriented approach to transport and mixing, finite time coherent sets play an important role. These are time-parametrized families of sets with unlikely transport to and from their surroundings under small or vanishing random perturbations of the dynamics. Here we propose, as a measure of transport and mixing for purely advective (i.e., deterministic) flows, (semi)distances that arise under vanishing perturbations in the sense of large deviations. Analogously, for given finite Lagrangian trajectory data we derive a discrete-time and space semidistance that comes from the "best" approximation of the randomly perturbed process conditioned on this limited information of the deterministic flow. It can be computed as shortest path in a graph with time-dependent weights. Furthermore, we argue that coherent sets are regions of maximal farness in terms of transport and mixing, hence they occur as extremal regions on a spanning structure of the state space under this semidistance---in fact, under any distance measure arising from the physical notion of transport. Based on this notion we develop a tool to analyze the state space (or the finite trajectory data at hand) and identify coherent regions. We validate our approach on idealized prototypical examples and well-studied standard cases.

math.DS↗