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P. Carrilho

Publications and source records attributed to P. Carrilho.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

Euclid preparation. Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid (CLOE). 2. Code implementation

We provide a description of the code implementation and structure of Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid (CLOE), developed by members of the Euclid Consortium. CLOE is a modular Python code for computing the theoretical predictions of cosmological observables and evaluating them against state-of-the-art data from galaxy surveys such as Euclid in a unified likelihood. This primarily includes the core observables of weak gravitational lensing, photometric galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and spectroscopic galaxy clustering, but also extended probes such as the clusters of galaxies and cross-correlations of galaxy positions and shapes with the cosmic microwave background. While CLOE has been developed to serve as the unified framework for the parameter inferences in Euclid, it has general capabilities that can serve the broader cosmological community. It is different from other comparable cosmological tools in that it is written entirely in Python, performs the full likelihood calculation, and includes both photometric and spectroscopic observables. We will focus on the primary probes of Euclid and will describe the overall code structure, rigorous code development practices, extensive documentation, unique features, speed optimization, and future development plans. CLOE is publicly available at https://github.com/cloe-org/cloe.

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Euclid preparation. CIV. Impact of galaxy intrinsic alignment modelling choices on Euclid 3x2pt cosmology

The Euclid galaxy survey will provide unprecedented constraints on cosmology, but achieving unbiased results will require an optimal characterisation and mitigation of systematic effects. The intrinsic alignments (IAs) of galaxies are one of the dominant contaminants of the weak lensing (WL) and galaxy-galaxy lensing (GGL) probes. In this work, we assess IA modelling choices for Euclid DR1 3x2pt analyses by using synthetic data vectors and comparing the performance of the two most commonly used IA models, non-linear alignment (NLA) and tidal alignment tidal torquing (TATT), along with several variations. Our analyses combine three perspectives: (i) the constraining power on the IA and cosmological parameters for each IA model, (ii) the bias that results when the IA analysis model differs from the model used to generate the synthetic data vector, and (iii) the degeneracies between IAs and photometric redshift (photo-z) nuisance parameters. Amongst the IA models analysed, the redshift-dependent TATT model (zTATT) provides the most flexible description of IAs, with a constraining power similar to simpler IA models, making it a suitable choice for Euclid DR1 3x2pt analyses.

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Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Clustering and Weak Lensing

We present cosmology results combining galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing measured in the full six years (Y6) of observations by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) covering $\sim$5000 deg$^2$. We perform a large-scale structure analysis using three two-point correlation functions (3$\times$2pt): (i) cosmic shear from 140 million source galaxy shapes, (ii) galaxy clustering of 9 million lens galaxy positions, and (iii) galaxy-galaxy lensing from their cross-correlation. We model the data in flat $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM cosmologies. The combined analysis yields $S_8\equiv \sigma_8 (\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.789^{+0.012}_{-0.012}$ and matter density $\Omega_{\rm m} = 0.333^{+0.023}_{-0.028}$ in $\Lambda$CDM (68\% CL), where $\sigma_8$ is the clustering amplitude. These constraints show a (full-space) parameter difference of 1.8$\sigma$ from a combination of cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary anisotropy datasets from Planck 2018, ACT-DR6, and SPT-3G DR1. Projected only into $S_8$ the difference is $2.6\sigma$. In $w$CDM the Y6 3$\times$2pt results yield $S_8 = 0.782^{+0.021}_{-0.020}$, $\Omega_{\rm m} = 0.325^{+0.032}_{-0.035}$, and dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w = -1.12^{+0.26}_{-0.20}$. For the first time, we combine all DES dark-energy probes: 3$\times$2pt, SNe Ia, BAO and Clusters. In $\Lambda$CDM this combination yields a $2.8\sigma$ parameter difference from the CMB. When combining DES 3$\times$2pt with other low-redshift datasets (DESI DR2 BAO, DES SNe Ia, SPT clusters), we find a 2.3$\sigma$ parameter difference with CMB. A joint fit of Y6 3$\times$2pt, CMB, and those low-redshift datasets produces the tightest $\Lambda$CDM constraints to date: $S_8 = 0.806^{+0.006}_{-0.007}$, $\Omega_{\rm m} = 0.302^{+0.003}_{-0.003}$, $h = 0.683^{+0.003}_{-0.002}$, and $\sum m_\nu < 0.14$ eV (95\% CL). In $w$CDM, this combination yields $w = -0.981^{+0.021}_{-0.022}$.

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Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Weak Lensing and Galaxy Clustering Cosmological Analysis Framework

We present the methodology for the weak lensing and galaxy clustering analyses of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 6 data set. In this work, we design and validate the analysis pipeline for the cosmic shear, galaxy clustering plus galaxy$-$galaxy lensing ($2 \times 2$pt), and the joint analysis in the $3 \times 2$pt. Our framework accounts for key theoretical uncertainties, such as baryonic feedback and galaxy bias, incorporating both linear and non-linear models. We apply scale cuts in regimes where theoretical modeling becomes unreliable. The robustness of the pipeline is validated using mock data and simulations, confirming unbiased cosmological constraints and highlighting the importance of posterior projection effects in the validation process. As a result, we deliver robust and validated analysis pipelines for cosmic shear, $2 \times 2$pt, and $3 \times 2$pt in $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM scenarios, including a well-defined set of scales suitable for real data analysis, a robust prescription for theoretical systematics, and the theoretical covariance of the signal. This comprehensive methodology also lays the groundwork for future galaxy surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

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Euclid preparation. Review of forecast constraints on dark energy and modified gravity

The Euclid mission has been designed to provide, as one of its main deliverables, information on the nature of the gravitational interaction, which determines the expansion of the Universe and the formation of structures. Thus, Euclid has the potential to test deviations from general relativity that will allow us to shed light on long-lasting problems in the standard cosmological model, $\Lambda$CDM. Euclid will mainly do this by using two complementary probes: weak gravitational lensing and galaxy clustering. In this paper we review pre-launch Euclid analyses for dark energy and modified gravity. These include forecast constraints with future Euclid data on cosmological parameters for different cosmological models, such as a time-varying dark energy component, phenomenological modifications of the perturbation sector and specific modified gravity models, with further extensions that include neutrino physics and the coupling to the electromagnetic sector through the fine-structure constant. We review the study of the impact of nonlinear clustering methods on beyond-$\Lambda$CDM constraints with Euclid. This is of fundamental importance to efficiently predict the large-scale clustering of matter and dark matter halos, given that we will have access to a wealth of information on scales beyond the linear regime. We inspect the extension of theoretical predictions for observable quantities in alternative cosmologies to $\Lambda$CDM at fully nonlinear scales by means of $N$-body simulations. We discuss the impact of relativistic corrections in extended cosmological models. Overall, this review highlights the significant potential of the Euclid mission to tightly constrain parameters of dark energy and modified gravity models, or perhaps to detect possible signatures of a $\Lambda$CDM failure.

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Euclid preparation. Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid (CLOE). 6: Impact of systematic uncertainties on the cosmological analysis

Extracting cosmological information from the Euclid galaxy survey will require modelling numerous systematic effects during the inference process. This implies varying a large number of nuisance parameters, which have to be marginalised over before reporting the constraints on the cosmological parameters. This is a delicate process, especially with such a large parameter space, which could result in biased cosmological results. In this work, we study the impact of different choices for modelling systematic effects and prior distribution of nuisance parameters for the final Euclid Data Release, focusing on the 3$\times$2pt analysis for photometric probes and the galaxy power spectrum multipoles for the spectroscopic probes. We explore the effect of intrinsic alignments, linear galaxy bias, magnification bias, multiplicative cosmic shear bias and shifts in the redshift distribution for the photometric probes, as well as the purity of the spectroscopic sample. We find that intrinsic alignment modelling has the most severe impact with a bias up to $6\,\sigma$ on the Hubble constant $H_0$ if neglected, followed by mis-modelling of the redshift evolution of galaxy bias, yielding up to $1.5\,\sigma$ on the parameter $S_8\equiv\sigma_8\sqrt{\Omega_{{\rm m}} /0.3}$. Choosing a too optimistic prior for multiplicative bias can also result in biases of the order of $0.7\,\sigma$ on $S_8$. We also find that the precision on the estimate of the purity of the spectroscopic sample will be an important driver for the constraining power of the galaxy clustering full-shape analysis. These results will help prioritise efforts to improve the modelling and calibration of systematic effects in Euclid.

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Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in \Euclid (CLOE). 1. Theoretical recipe

As the statistical precision of cosmological measurements increases, the accuracy of the theoretical description of these measurements needs to increase correspondingly in order to infer the underlying cosmology that governs the Universe. To this end, we have created the Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid (CLOE), which is a novel cosmological parameter inference pipeline developed within the Euclid Consortium to translate measurements and covariances into cosmological parameter constraints. In this first in a series of six papers, we describe the theoretical recipe of this code for the Euclid primary probes. These probes are composed of the photometric 3x2pt observables of cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering, along with spectroscopic galaxy clustering. We provide this description in both Fourier and configuration space for standard and extended summary statistics, including the wide range of systematic uncertainties that affect them. This includes systematic uncertainties such as intrinsic galaxy alignments, baryonic feedback, photometric and spectroscopic redshift uncertainties, shear calibration uncertainties, sample impurities, photometric and spectroscopic galaxy biases, as well as magnification bias. The theoretical descriptions are further able to accommodate both Gaussian and non-Gaussian likelihoods and extended cosmologies with non-zero curvature, massive neutrinos, evolving dark energy, and simple forms of modified gravity. These theoretical descriptions that underpin CLOE will form a crucial component in revealing the true nature of the Universe with next-generation cosmological surveys such as Euclid.

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Euclid preparation. Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid (CLOE). 4: Validation and Performance

The Euclid satellite will provide data on the clustering of galaxies and on the distortion of their measured shapes, which can be used to constrain and test the cosmological model. However, the increase in precision places strong requirements on the accuracy of the theoretical modelling for the observables and of the full analysis pipeline. In this paper, we investigate the accuracy of the calculations performed by the Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid (CLOE), a software able to handle both the modelling of observables and their fit against observational data for both the photometric and spectroscopic surveys of Euclid, by comparing the output of CLOE with external codes used as benchmark. We perform such a comparison on the quantities entering the calculations of the observables, as well as on the final outputs of these calculations. Our results highlight the high accuracy of CLOE when comparing its calculation against external codes for Euclid observables on an extended range of operative cases. In particular, all the summary statistics of interest always differ less than $0.1\,\sigma$ from the chosen benchmark, and CLOE predictions are statistically compatible with simulated data obtained from benchmark codes. The same holds for the comparison of correlation function in configuration space for spectroscopic and photometric observables.

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Euclid preparation. XCVIII. Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid (CLOE). 5: Extensions beyond the standard modelling of theoretical probes and systematic effects

Euclid is expected to establish new state-of-the-art constraints on extensions beyond the standard LCDM cosmological model by measuring the positions and shapes of billions of galaxies. Specifically, its goal is to shed light on the nature of dark matter and dark energy. Achieving this requires developing and validating advanced statistical tools and theoretical prediction software capable of testing extensions of the LCDM model. In this work, we describe how the Euclid likelihood pipeline, Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid (CLOE), has been extended to accommodate alternative cosmological models and to refine the theoretical modelling of Euclid primary probes. In particular, we detail modifications made to CLOE to incorporate the magnification bias term into the spectroscopic two-point correlation function of galaxy clustering. Additionally, we explain the adaptations made to CLOE's implementation of Euclid primary photometric probes to account for massive neutrinos and modified gravity extensions. Finally, we present the validation of these CLOE modifications through dedicated forecasts on synthetic Euclid-like data by sampling the full posterior distribution and comparing with the results of previous literature. In conclusion, we have identified in this work several functionalities with regards to beyond-LCDM modelling that could be further improved within CLOE, and outline potential research directions to enhance pipeline efficiency and flexibility through novel inference and machine learning techniques.

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Euclid preparation. XCVI. Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid (CLOE). 3. Inference and Forecasts

The Euclid mission aims to measure the positions, shapes, and redshifts of over a billion galaxies to provide unprecedented constraints on the nature of dark matter and dark energy. Achieving this goal requires a continuous reassessment of the mission's scientific performance, particularly in terms of its ability to constrain cosmological parameters, as our understanding of how to model large-scale structure observables improves. In this study, we present the first scientific forecasts using CLOE (Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid), a dedicated Euclid cosmological pipeline developed to support this endeavour. Using advanced Bayesian inference techniques applied to synthetic Euclid-like data, we sample the posterior distribution of cosmological and nuisance parameters across a variety of cosmological models and Euclid primary probes: cosmic shear, angular photometric galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and spectroscopic galaxy clustering. We validate the capability of CLOE to produce reliable cosmological forecasts, showcasing Euclid's potential to achieve a figure of merit for the dark energy parameters $w_0$ and $w_a$ exceeding 400 when combining all primary probes. Furthermore, we illustrate the behaviour of the posterior probability distribution of the parameters of interest given different priors and scale cuts. Finally, we emphasise the importance of addressing computational challenges, proposing further exploration of innovative data science techniques to efficiently navigate the Euclid high-dimensional parameter space in upcoming cosmological data releases.

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Cosmological implications of DESI DR2 BAO measurements in light of the latest ACT DR6 CMB data

We report cosmological results from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) when combined with recent data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). By jointly analyzing ACT and Planck data and applying conservative cuts to overlapping multipole ranges, we assess how different Planck+ACT dataset combinations affect consistency with DESI. While ACT alone exhibits a tension with DESI exceeding 3$\sigma$ within the $\Lambda$CDM model, this discrepancy is reduced when ACT is analyzed in combination with Planck. For our baseline DESI DR2 BAO+Planck PR4+ACT likelihood combination, the preference for evolving dark energy over a cosmological constant is about 3$\sigma$, increasing to over 4$\sigma$ with the inclusion of Type Ia supernova data. While the dark energy results remain quite consistent across various combinations of Planck and ACT likelihoods with those obtained by the DESI collaboration, the constraints on neutrino mass are more sensitive, ranging from $\sum m_\nu < 0.061$ eV in our baseline analysis, to $\sum m_\nu < 0.077$ eV (95\% confidence level) in the CMB likelihood combination chosen by ACT when imposing the physical prior $\sum m_\nu>0$ eV.

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Data Release 1 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

In 2021 May the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) collaboration began a 5-year spectroscopic redshift survey to produce a detailed map of the evolving three-dimensional structure of the universe between $z=0$ and $z\approx4$. DESI's principle scientific objectives are to place precise constraints on the equation of state of dark energy, the gravitationally driven growth of large-scale structure, and the sum of the neutrino masses, and to explore the observational signatures of primordial inflation. We present DESI Data Release 1 (DR1), which consists of all data acquired during the first 13 months of the DESI main survey, as well as a uniform reprocessing of the DESI Survey Validation data which was previously made public in the DESI Early Data Release. The DR1 main survey includes high-confidence redshifts for 18.7M objects, of which 13.1M are spectroscopically classified as galaxies, 1.6M as quasars, and 4M as stars, making DR1 the largest sample of extragalactic redshifts ever assembled. We summarize the DR1 observations, the spectroscopic data-reduction pipeline and data products, large-scale structure catalogs, value-added catalogs, and describe how to access and interact with the data. In addition to fulfilling its core cosmological objectives with unprecedented precision, we expect DR1 to enable a wide range of transformational astrophysical studies and discoveries.

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DESI DR2 Results I: Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the Lyman Alpha Forest

We present the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) measurements with the Lyman-alpha (LyA) forest from the second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. Our BAO measurements include both the auto-correlation of the LyA forest absorption observed in the spectra of high-redshift quasars and the cross-correlation of the absorption with the quasar positions. The total sample size is approximately a factor of two larger than the DR1 dataset, with forest measurements in over 820,000 quasar spectra and the positions of over 1.2 million quasars. We describe several significant improvements to our analysis in this paper, and two supporting papers describe improvements to the synthetic datasets that we use for validation and how we identify damped LyA absorbers. Our main result is that we have measured the BAO scale with a statistical precision of 1.1% along and 1.3% transverse to the line of sight, for a combined precision of 0.65% on the isotropic BAO scale at $z_{eff} = 2.33$. This excellent precision, combined with recent theoretical studies of the BAO shift due to nonlinear growth, motivated us to include a systematic error term in LyA BAO analysis for the first time. We measure the ratios $D_H(z_{eff})/r_d = 8.632 \pm 0.098 \pm 0.026$ and $D_M(z_{eff})/r_d = 38.99 \pm 0.52 \pm 0.12$, where $D_H = c/H(z)$ is the Hubble distance, $D_M$ is the transverse comoving distance, $r_d$ is the sound horizon at the drag epoch, and we quote both the statistical and the theoretical systematic uncertainty. The companion paper presents the BAO measurements at lower redshifts from the same dataset and the cosmological interpretation.

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DESI DR2 Results II: Measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and Cosmological Constraints

We present baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements from more than 14 million galaxies and quasars drawn from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2), based on three years of operation. For cosmology inference, these galaxy measurements are combined with DESI Lyman-$\alpha$ forest BAO results presented in a companion paper. The DR2 BAO results are consistent with DESI DR1 and SDSS, and their distance-redshift relationship matches those from recent compilations of supernovae (SNe) over the same redshift range. The results are well described by a flat $\Lambda$CDM model, but the parameters preferred by BAO are in mild, $2.3\sigma$ tension with those determined from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), although the DESI results are consistent with the acoustic angular scale $\theta_*$ that is well-measured by Planck. This tension is alleviated by dark energy with a time-evolving equation of state parametrized by $w_0$ and $w_a$, which provides a better fit to the data, with a favored solution in the quadrant with $w_0>-1$ and $w_a<0$. This solution is preferred over $\Lambda$CDM at $3.1\sigma$ for the combination of DESI BAO and CMB data. When also including SNe, the preference for a dynamical dark energy model over $\Lambda$CDM ranges from $2.8-4.2\sigma$ depending on which SNe sample is used. We present evidence from other data combinations which also favor the same behavior at high significance. From the combination of DESI and CMB we derive 95% upper limits on the sum of neutrino masses, finding $\sum m_\nu<0.064$ eV assuming $\Lambda$CDM and $\sum m_\nu<0.16$ eV in the $w_0w_a$ model. Unless there is an unknown systematic error associated with one or more datasets, it is clear that $\Lambda$CDM is being challenged by the combination of DESI BAO with other measurements and that dynamical dark energy offers a possible solution.

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Interacting dark energy constraints from the full-shape analyses of BOSS DR12 and DES Year 3 measurements

Dark Scattering (DS) is an interacting dark energy model characterised by pure momentum exchange between dark energy and dark matter. It is phenomenologically interesting because it is unconstrained by CMB data and can alleviate the $S_8$ tension. We derive constraints on cosmological and DS parameters using three two-point correlation functions (3$\times$2pt) from the Dark Energy Survey third year data release (DES Y3). We then add information from the multipoles of the galaxy power spectrum combined with Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) measurements using the twelfth data release of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS DR12) and external BAO measurements. We compare results from the direct combination of the probes with the joint posterior distribution calculated with a normalising flow approach. Additionally, we run a CMB analysis with the Planck Public Release 4 (PR4) for comparison of the cosmological constraints. Overall, we find that the combination of probes allows minimising the projection effects and improves constraints without the need to include CMB information. It brings the marginalised posterior maxima closer to the corresponding best-fit values and weakens the sensitivity to the priors of the spectroscopic modelling nuisance parameters. These findings are highly relevant in light of forthcoming data of surveys like DESI, Euclid, and Rubin.

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Euclid preparation LXXI. Simulations and nonlinearities beyond $\mathsf{\Lambda}$CDM. 3. Constraints on $f(R)$ models from the photometric primary probes

We study the constraint on $f(R)$ gravity that can be obtained by photometric primary probes of the Euclid mission. Our focus is the dependence of the constraint on the theoretical modelling of the nonlinear matter power spectrum. In the Hu-Sawicki $f(R)$ gravity model, we consider four different predictions for the ratio between the power spectrum in $f(R)$ and that in $\Lambda$CDM: a fitting formula, the halo model reaction approach, ReACT and two emulators based on dark matter only $N$-body simulations, FORGE and e-Mantis. These predictions are added to the MontePython implementation to predict the angular power spectra for weak lensing (WL), photometric galaxy clustering and their cross-correlation. By running Markov Chain Monte Carlo, we compare constraints on parameters and investigate the bias of the recovered $f(R)$ parameter if the data are created by a different model. For the pessimistic setting of WL, one dimensional bias for the $f(R)$ parameter, $\log_{10}|f_{R0}|$, is found to be $0.5 \sigma$ when FORGE is used to create the synthetic data with $\log_{10}|f_{R0}| =-5.301$ and fitted by e-Mantis. The impact of baryonic physics on WL is studied by using a baryonification emulator BCemu. For the optimistic setting, the $f(R)$ parameter and two main baryon parameters are well constrained despite the degeneracies among these parameters. However, the difference in the nonlinear dark matter prediction can be compensated by the adjustment of baryon parameters, and the one-dimensional marginalised constraint on $\log_{10}|f_{R0}|$ is biased. This bias can be avoided in the pessimistic setting at the expense of weaker constraints. For the pessimistic setting, using the $\Lambda$CDM synthetic data for WL, we obtain the prior-independent upper limit of $\log_{10}|f_{R0}|< -5.6$. Finally, we implement a method to include theoretical errors to avoid the bias.

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Euclid preparation. Modelling spectroscopic clustering on mildly nonlinear scales in beyond-$\Lambda$CDM models

We investigate the approximations needed to efficiently predict the large-scale clustering of matter and dark matter halos in beyond-$\Lambda$CDM scenarios. We examine the normal branch of the Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati model, the Hu-Sawicki $f(R)$ model, a slowly evolving dark energy, an interacting dark energy model and massive neutrinos. For each, we test approximations for the perturbative kernel calculations, including the omission of screening terms and the use of perturbative kernels based on the Einstein-de Sitter universe; we explore different infrared-resummation schemes, tracer bias models and a linear treatment of massive neutrinos; we employ two models for redshift space distortions, the Taruya-Nishimishi-Saito prescription and the Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure. This work further provides a preliminary validation of the codes being considered by Euclid for the spectroscopic clustering probe in beyond-$\Lambda$CDM scenarios. We calculate and compare the $\chi^2$ statistic to assess the different modelling choices. This is done by fitting the spectroscopic clustering predictions to measurements from numerical simulations and perturbation theory-based mock data. We compare the behaviour of this statistic in the beyond-$\Lambda$CDM cases, as a function of the maximum scale included in the fit, to the baseline $\Lambda$CDM case. We find that the Einstein-de Sitter approximation without screening is surprisingly accurate for all cases when comparing to the halo clustering monopole and quadrupole obtained from simulations. Our results suggest that the inclusion of multiple redshift bins, higher-order multipoles, higher-order clustering statistics (such as the bispectrum) and photometric probes such as weak lensing, will be essential to extract information on massive neutrinos, modified gravity and dark energy.

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