arXiv subjects

P. Kusnirak

Publications and source records attributed to P. Kusnirak.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The spin state of asteroid Apophis and a prediction of its change during the 2029 close encounter with Earth

On April 13, 2029, the asteroid Apophis will pass near Earth at a geocentric distance of about 38,000 km. Numerical models have suggested that the post-encounter spin state will critically depend on the orientation of Apophis during the flyby. We aim to determine the spin state of Apophis from its photometric observations collected during two apparitions in 2012-2013 and 2020-2021. This will enable us to accurately predict the pre-encounter rotation state and, by accounting for Earth's gravitational torque, predict a range of possible post-encounter states. We used the light curve inversion method for tumbling asteroids to reconstruct the spin state of Apophis and its convex shape model. The result is adopted as the initial condition of a numerical model describing Apophis's future rotation state. The data from the two apparitions are insufficient to determine Apophis's rotation and precession periods uniquely. The formally best-fit solution is 27.374 +/- 0.001 h for the precession period and 262.2 +/- 0.1 h for the rotation period, but at least two other combinations of the periods provide a similarly good fit to the available data. All the currently acceptable models result in approximately the same pre-encounter orientation of Apophis in early 2029. This is because the accurate photometric data were collected during two apparitions separated by 8 years, which is the same interval as from 2021 to 2029. Although the close encounter with Earth in April 2029 hugely increases the post-encounter uncertainty of Apophis's spin state, the short-axis spin mode will be preserved with a high likelihood. Additional observations taken in 2027 and 2028 will break the ambiguity in Apophis's pre-encounter spin solution and allow us to get a more accurate post-encounter spin state prediction

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Rotation acceleration of asteroids (10115) 1992 SK, (1685) Toro, and (1620) Geographos due to the YORP effect

The rotation state of small asteroids is affected by the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect, which is a net torque caused by solar radiation directly reflected and thermally reemitted from the surface. Due to this effect, the rotation period slowly changes, which can be most easily measured in light curves because the shift in the rotation phase accumulates over time quadratically. We collected archived light curves and carried out new photometric observations for asteroids (10115) 1992 SK, (1620) Geographos, and (1685) Toro. We applied the method of light curve inversion to fit observations with a convex shape model. The YORP effect was modeled as a linear change of the rotation frequency $\upsilon \equiv \mathrm{d}\omega / \mathrm{d}t$ and optimized together with other spin and shape parameters. We detected the acceleration $\upsilon = (8.3 \pm 0.6) \times 10^{-8}\,\mathrm{rad}\,\mathrm{d}^{-2}$ of the rotation for asteroid (10115) 1992 SK. This observed value agrees well with the theoretical value of YORP-induced spin-up computed for our shape and spin model. For (1685) Toro, we obtained $\upsilon = (3.3 \pm 0.3) \times 10^{-9}\,\mathrm{rad}\,\mathrm{d}^{-2}$, which confirms an earlier tentative YORP detection. For (1620) Geographos, we confirmed the previously detected YORP acceleration and derived an updated value of $\upsilon$ with a smaller uncertainty. We also included the effect of solar precession into our inversion algorithm, and we show that there are hints of this effect in Geographos' data. The detected change of the spin rate of (10115) 1992 SK has increased the total number of asteroids with YORP detection to ten. In all ten cases, the $\mathrm{d}\omega / \mathrm{d}t$ value is positive, so the rotation of these asteroids is accelerated. It is unlikely to be just a statistical fluke, but it is probably a real feature that needs to be explained.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

YORP and Yarkovsky effects in asteroids (1685) Toro, (2100) Ra-Shalom, (3103) Eger, and (161989) Cacus

The rotation states of small asteroids are affected by a net torque arising from an anisotropic sunlight reflection and thermal radiation from the asteroids' surfaces. On long timescales, this so-called YORP effect can change asteroid spin directions and their rotation periods. We analyzed lightcurves of four selected near-Earth asteroids with the aim of detecting secular changes in their rotation rates that are caused by YORP. We use the lightcurve inversion method to model the observed lightcurves and include the change in the rotation rate $\mathrm{d} \omega / \mathrm{d} t$ as a free parameter of optimization. We collected more than 70 new lightcurves. For asteroids Toro and Cacus, we used thermal infrared data from the WISE spacecraft and estimated their size and thermal inertia. We also used the currently available optical and radar astrometry of Toro, Ra-Shalom, and Cacus to infer the Yarkovsky effect. We detected a YORP acceleration of $\mathrm{d}\omega / \mathrm{d} t = (1.9 \pm 0.3) \times 10^{-8}\,\mathrm{rad}\,\mathrm{d}^{-2}$ for asteroid Cacus. For Toro, we have a tentative ($2\sigma$) detection of YORP from a significant improvement of the lightcurve fit for a nonzero value of $\mathrm{d}\omega / \mathrm{d} t = 3.0 \times 10^{-9}\,\mathrm{rad}\,\mathrm{d}^{-2}$. For asteroid Eger, we confirmed the previously published YORP detection with more data and updated the YORP value to $(1.1 \pm 0.5) \times 10^{-8}\,\mathrm{rad}\,\mathrm{d}^{-2}$. We also updated the shape model of asteroid Ra-Shalom and put an upper limit for the change of the rotation rate to $|\mathrm{d}\omega / \mathrm{d} t| \lesssim 1.5 \times 10^{-8}\,\mathrm{rad}\,\mathrm{d}^{-2}$. Ra-Shalom has a greater than $3\sigma$ Yarkovsky detection with a theoretical value consistent with observations assuming its size and/or density is slightly larger than the nominally expected values.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

Near-Earth asteroid (3200) Phaethon. Characterization of its orbit, spin state, and thermophysical parameters

The near-Earth asteroid (3200) Phaethon is an intriguing object: its perihelion is at only 0.14 au and is associated with the Geminid meteor stream. We aim to use all available disk-integrated optical data to derive a reliable convex shape model of Phaethon. By interpreting the available space- and ground-based thermal infrared data and Spitzer spectra using a thermophysical model, we also aim to further constrain its size, thermal inertia, and visible geometric albedo. We applied the convex inversion method to the new optical data obtained by six instruments and to previous observations. The convex shape model was then used as input for the thermophysical modeling. We also studied the long-term stability of Phaethon's orbit and spin axis with a numerical orbital and rotation-state integrator. We present a new convex shape model and rotational state of Phaethon: a sidereal rotation period of 3.603958(2) h and ecliptic coordinates of the preferred pole orientation of (319$^{\circ}$, $-$39$^{\circ}$) with a 5$^{\circ}$ uncertainty. Moreover, we derive its size ($D$=5.1$\pm$0.2 km), thermal inertia ($Γ$=600$\pm$200 J m$^{-2}$ s$^{-1/2}$ K$^{-1}$), geometric visible albedo ($p_{\mathrm{V}}$=0.122$\pm$0.008), and estimate the macroscopic surface roughness. We also find that the Sun illumination at the perihelion passage during the past several thousand years is not connected to a specific area on the surface, which implies non-preferential heating.

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arXiv2010

Formation of asteroid pairs by rotational fission

Asteroid pairs sharing similar heliocentric orbits were found recently. Backward integrations of their orbits indicated that they separated gently with low relative velocities, but did not provide additional insight into their formation mechanism. A previously hypothesized rotational fission process4 may explain their formation - critical predictions are that the mass ratios are less than about 0.2 and, as the mass ratio approaches this upper limit, the spin period of the larger body becomes long. Here we report photometric observations of a sample of asteroid pairs revealing that primaries of pairs with mass ratios much less than 0.2 rotate rapidly, near their critical fission frequency. As the mass ratio approaches 0.2, the primary period grows long. This occurs as the total energy of the system approaches zero requiring the asteroid pair to extract an increasing fraction of energy from the primary's spin in order to escape. We do not find asteroid pairs with mass ratios larger than 0.2. Rotationally fissioned systems beyond this limit have insufficient energy to disrupt. We conclude that asteroid pairs are formed by the rotational fission of a parent asteroid into a proto-binary system which subsequently disrupts under its own internal system dynamics soon after formation.

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