arXiv subjects

P. Lemos

Publications and source records attributed to P. Lemos.

34 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Joint analysis of DES Year 3 data and CMB lensing from SPT and Planck I: Construction of CMB Lensing Maps and Modeling Choices

Joint analyses of cross-correlations between measurements of galaxy positions, galaxy lensing, and lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) offer powerful constraints on the large-scale structure of the Universe. In a forthcoming analysis, we will present cosmological constraints from the analysis of such cross-correlations measured using Year 3 data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and CMB data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck. Here we present two key ingredients of this analysis: (1) an improved CMB lensing map in the SPT-SZ survey footprint, and (2) the analysis methodology that will be used to extract cosmological information from the cross-correlation measurements. Relative to previous lensing maps made from the same CMB observations, we have implemented techniques to remove contamination from the thermal Sunyaev Zel'dovich effect, enabling the extraction of cosmological information from smaller angular scales of the cross-correlation measurements than in previous analyses with DES Year 1 data. We describe our model for the cross-correlations between these maps and DES data, and validate our modeling choices to demonstrate the robustness of our analysis. We then forecast the expected cosmological constraints from the galaxy survey-CMB lensing auto and cross-correlations. We find that the galaxy-CMB lensing and galaxy shear-CMB lensing correlations will on their own provide a constraint on $S_8=σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3}$ at the few percent level, providing a powerful consistency check for the DES-only constraints. We explore scenarios where external priors on shear calibration are removed, finding that the joint analysis of CMB lensing cross-correlations can provide constraints on the shear calibration amplitude at the 5 to 10% level.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Clustering and Weak Lensing

We present the first cosmology results from large-scale structure in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) spanning 5000 deg$^2$. We perform an analysis combining three two-point correlation functions (3$\times$2pt): (i) cosmic shear using 100 million source galaxies, (ii) galaxy clustering, and (iii) the cross-correlation of source galaxy shear with lens galaxy positions. The analysis was designed to mitigate confirmation or observer bias; we describe specific changes made to the lens galaxy sample following unblinding of the results. We model the data within the flat $Λ$CDM and $w$CDM cosmological models. We find consistent cosmological results between the three two-point correlation functions; their combination yields clustering amplitude $S_8=0.776^{+0.017}_{-0.017}$ and matter density $Ω_{\mathrm{m}} = 0.339^{+0.032}_{-0.031}$ in $Λ$CDM, mean with 68% confidence limits; $S_8=0.775^{+0.026}_{-0.024}$, $Ω_{\mathrm{m}} = 0.352^{+0.035}_{-0.041}$, and dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w=-0.98^{+0.32}_{-0.20}$ in $w$CDM. This combination of DES data is consistent with the prediction of the model favored by the Planck 2018 cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary anisotropy data, which is quantified with a probability-to-exceed $p=0.13$ to $0.48$. When combining DES 3$\times$2pt data with available baryon acoustic oscillation, redshift-space distortion, and type Ia supernovae data, we find $p=0.34$. Combining all of these data sets with Planck CMB lensing yields joint parameter constraints of $S_8 = 0.812^{+0.008}_{-0.008}$, $Ω_{\mathrm{m}} = 0.306^{+0.004}_{-0.005}$, $h=0.680^{+0.004}_{-0.003}$, and $\sum m_ν<0.13 \;\mathrm{eV\; (95\% \;CL)}$ in $Λ$CDM; $S_8 = 0.812^{+0.008}_{-0.008}$, $Ω_{\mathrm{m}} = 0.302^{+0.006}_{-0.006}$, $h=0.687^{+0.006}_{-0.007}$, and $w=-1.031^{+0.030}_{-0.027}$ in $w$CDM. (abridged)

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: cosmological constraints from the analysis of cosmic shear in harmonic space

We present cosmological constraints from the analysis of angular power spectra of cosmic shear maps based on data from the first three years of observations by the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). Our measurements are based on the pseudo-$C_\ell$ method and offer a view complementary to that of the two-point correlation functions in real space, as the two estimators are known to compress and select Gaussian information in different ways, due to scale cuts. They may also be differently affected by systematic effects and theoretical uncertainties, such as baryons and intrinsic alignments (IA), making this analysis an important cross-check. In the context of $Λ$CDM, and using the same fiducial model as in the DES Y3 real space analysis, we find ${S_8 \equiv σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.793^{+0.038}_{-0.025}}$, which further improves to ${S_8 = 0.784\pm 0.026 }$ when including shear ratios. This constraint is within expected statistical fluctuations from the real space analysis, and in agreement with DES~Y3 analyses of non-Gaussian statistics, but favors a slightly higher value of $S_8$, which reduces the tension with the Planck cosmic microwave background 2018 results from $2.3σ$ in the real space analysis to $1.5σ$ in this work. We explore less conservative IA models than the one adopted in our fiducial analysis, finding no clear preference for a more complex model. We also include small scales, using an increased Fourier mode cut-off up to $k_{\rm max}={5}{h{\rm Mpc}^{-1}}$, which allows to constrain baryonic feedback while leaving cosmological constraints essentially unchanged. Finally, we present an approximate reconstruction of the linear matter power spectrum at present time, which is found to be about 20\% lower than predicted by Planck 2018, as reflected by the $1.5σ$ lower $S_8$ value.

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arXiv2022

Robust sampling for weak lensing and clustering analyses with the Dark Energy Survey

Recent cosmological analyses rely on the ability to accurately sample from high-dimensional posterior distributions. A variety of algorithms have been applied in the field, but justification of the particular sampler choice and settings is often lacking. Here we investigate three such samplers to motivate and validate the algorithm and settings used for the Dark Energy Survey (DES) analyses of the first 3 years (Y3) of data from combined measurements of weak lensing and galaxy clustering. We employ the full DES Year 1 likelihood alongside a much faster approximate likelihood, which enables us to assess the outcomes from each sampler choice and demonstrate the robustness of our full results. We find that the ellipsoidal nested sampling algorithm $\texttt{MultiNest}$ reports inconsistent estimates of the Bayesian evidence and somewhat narrower parameter credible intervals than the sliced nested sampling implemented in $\texttt{PolyChord}$. We compare the findings from $\texttt{MultiNest}$ and $\texttt{PolyChord}$ with parameter inference from the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, finding good agreement. We determine that $\texttt{PolyChord}$ provides a good balance of speed and robustness, and recommend different settings for testing purposes and final chains for analyses with DES Y3 data. Our methodology can readily be reproduced to obtain suitable sampler settings for future surveys.

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arXiv2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Cosmology from Cosmic Shear and Robustness to Modeling Uncertainty

This work and its companion paper, Amon et al. (2021), present cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints from over 100 million source galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data. We constrain the lensing amplitude parameter $S_8\equivσ_8\sqrt{Ω_\textrm{m}/0.3}$ at the 3% level in $Λ$CDM: $S_8=0.759^{+0.025}_{-0.023}$ (68% CL). Our constraint is at the 2% level when using angular scale cuts that are optimized for the $Λ$CDM analysis: $S_8=0.772^{+0.018}_{-0.017}$ (68% CL). With cosmic shear alone, we find no statistically significant constraint on the dark energy equation-of-state parameter at our present statistical power. We carry out our analysis blind, and compare our measurement with constraints from two other contemporary weak-lensing experiments: the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) and Hyper-Suprime Camera Subaru Strategic Program (HSC). We additionally quantify the agreement between our data and external constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Our DES Y3 result under the assumption of $Λ$CDM is found to be in statistical agreement with Planck 2018, although favors a lower $S_8$ than the CMB-inferred value by $2.3σ$ (a $p$-value of 0.02). This paper explores the robustness of these cosmic shear results to modeling of intrinsic alignments, the matter power spectrum and baryonic physics. We additionally explore the statistical preference of our data for intrinsic alignment models of different complexity. The fiducial cosmic shear model is tested using synthetic data, and we report no biases greater than 0.3$σ$ in the plane of $S_8\timesΩ_\textrm{m}$ caused by uncertainties in the theoretical models.

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arXiv2021

Probing gravity with the DES-CMASS sample and BOSS spectroscopy

The DES-CMASS sample (DMASS) is designed to optimally combine the weak lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and redshift-space distortions (RSD) probed by the CMASS galaxy sample from the Baryonic Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of adopting DMASS as the equivalent of BOSS CMASS for a joint analysis of DES and BOSS in the framework of modified gravity. We utilize the angular clustering of the DMASS galaxies, cosmic shear of the DES METACALIBRATION sources, and cross-correlation of the two as data vectors. By jointly fitting the combination of the data with the RSD measurements from the BOSS CMASS sample and Planck data, we obtain the constraints on modified gravity parameters $μ_0 = -0.37^{+0.47}_{-0.45}$ and $Σ_0 = 0.078^{+0.078}_{-0.082}$. We do not detect any significant deviation from General Relativity. Our constraints of modified gravity measured with DMASS are tighter than those with the DES Year 1 redMaGiC galaxy sample with the same external data sets by $29\%$ for $μ_0$ and $21\%$ for $Σ_0$, and comparable to the published results of the DES Year 1 modified gravity analysis despite this work using fewer external data sets. This improvement is mainly because the galaxy bias parameter is shared and more tightly constrained by both CMASS and DMASS, effectively breaking the degeneracy between the galaxy bias and other cosmological parameters. Such an approach to optimally combine photometric and spectroscopic surveys using a photometric sample equivalent to a spectroscopic sample can be applied to combining future surveys having a limited overlap such as DESI and LSST.

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arXiv2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmology with peaks using an emulator approach

We constrain the matter density $Ω_{\mathrm{m}}$ and the amplitude of density fluctuations $σ_8$ within the $Λ$CDM cosmological model with shear peak statistics and angular convergence power spectra using mass maps constructed from the first three years of data of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). We use tomographic shear peak statistics, including cross-peaks: peak counts calculated on maps created by taking a harmonic space product of the convergence of two tomographic redshift bins. Our analysis follows a forward-modelling scheme to create a likelihood of these statistics using N-body simulations, using a Gaussian process emulator. We include the following lensing systematics: multiplicative shear bias, photometric redshift uncertainty, and galaxy intrinsic alignment. Stringent scale cuts are applied to avoid biases from unmodelled baryonic physics. We find that the additional non-Gaussian information leads to a tightening of the constraints on the structure growth parameter yielding $S_8~\equiv~σ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\mathrm{m}}/0.3}~=~0.797_{-0.013}^{+0.015}$ (68% confidence limits), with a precision of 1.8%, an improvement of ~38% compared to the angular power spectra only case. The results obtained with the angular power spectra and peak counts are found to be in agreement with each other and no significant difference in $S_8$ is recorded. We find a mild tension of $1.5 \thinspace σ$ between our study and the results from Planck 2018, with our analysis yielding a lower $S_8$. Furthermore, we observe that the combination of angular power spectra and tomographic peak counts breaks the degeneracy between galaxy intrinsic alignment $A_{\mathrm{IA}}$ and $S_8$, improving cosmological constraints. We run a suite of tests concluding that our results are robust and consistent with the results from other studies using DES Y3 data.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters

We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the CMB anisotropies. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter $Λ$CDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted "base $Λ$CDM" in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density $Ω_c h^2 = 0.120\pm 0.001$, baryon density $Ω_b h^2 = 0.0224\pm 0.0001$, scalar spectral index $n_s = 0.965\pm 0.004$, and optical depth $τ= 0.054\pm 0.007$ (in this abstract we quote $68\,\%$ confidence regions on measured parameters and $95\,\%$ on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to $0.03\,\%$ precision, with $100θ_*=1.0411\pm 0.0003$. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-$Λ$CDM cosmology, the inferred late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant $H_0 = (67.4\pm 0.5)$km/s/Mpc; matter density parameter $Ω_m = 0.315\pm 0.007$; and matter fluctuation amplitude $σ_8 = 0.811\pm 0.006$. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-$Λ$CDM model. Combining with BAO we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be $N_{\rm eff} = 2.99\pm 0.17$, and the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to $\sum m_ν< 0.12$eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base -$Λ$CDM at over $2\,σ$, which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the base-$Λ$CDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. (Abridged)

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Assessing tension metrics with Dark Energy Survey and Planck data

Quantifying tensions -- inconsistencies amongst measurements of cosmological parameters by different experiments -- has emerged as a crucial part of modern cosmological data analysis. Statistically-significant tensions between two experiments or cosmological probes may indicate new physics extending beyond the standard cosmological model and need to be promptly identified. We apply several tension estimators proposed in the literature to the Dark Energy Survey (DES) large-scale structure measurement and Planck cosmic microwave background data. We first evaluate the responsiveness of these metrics to an input tension artificially introduced between the two, using synthetic DES data. We then apply the metrics to the comparison of Planck and actual DES Year 1 data. We find that the parameter differences, Eigentension, and Suspiciousness metrics all yield similar results on both simulated and real data, while the Bayes ratio is inconsistent with the rest due to its dependence on the prior volume. Using these metrics, we calculate the tension between DES Year 1 $3\times 2$pt and Planck, finding the surveys to be in $\sim 2.3σ$ tension under the $Λ$CDM paradigm. This suite of metrics provides a toolset for robustly testing tensions in the DES Year 3 data and beyond.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Multi-Probe Modeling Strategy and Validation

This paper details the modeling pipeline and validates the baseline analysis choices of the DES Year 3 joint analysis of galaxy clustering and weak lensing (a so-called "3$\times$2pt" analysis). These analysis choices include the specific combination of cosmological probes, priors on cosmological and systematics parameters, model parameterizations for systematic effects and related approximations, and angular scales where the model assumptions are validated. We run a large number of simulated likelihood analyses using synthetic data vectors to test the robustness of our baseline analysis. We demonstrate that the DES Year 3 modeling pipeline, including the calibrated scale cuts, is sufficiently accurate relative to the constraining power of the DES Year 3 analyses. Our systematics mitigation strategy accounts for astrophysical systematics, such as galaxy bias, intrinsic alignments, source and lens magnification, baryonic effects, and source clustering, as well as for uncertainties in modeling the matter power spectrum, reduced shear, and estimator effects. We further demonstrate excellent agreement between two independently-developed modeling pipelines, and thus rule out any residual uncertainties due to the numerical implementation.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

When tension is just a fluctuation: How noisy data affect model comparison

Summary statistics of the likelihood, such as the Bayesian evidence, offer a principled way of comparing models and assessing tension between, or within, the results of physical experiments. Noisy realisations of the data induce scatter in these model comparison statistics. For a realistic case of cosmological inference from large-scale structure we show that the logarithm of the Bayes factor attains scatter of order unity, increasing significantly with stronger tension between the models under comparison. We develop an approximate procedure that quantifies the sampling distribution of the evidence at small additional computational cost and apply it to real data to demonstrate the impact of the scatter, which acts to reduce the significance of any model discrepancies. Data compression is highlighted as a potential avenue to suppressing noise in the evidence to negligible levels, with a proof of concept on Planck cosmic microwave background data.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Dark Energy Survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

Beyond-$Λ$CDM physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analyzed assuming $Λ$CDM. We present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of $Λ$CDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to $Λ$CDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of ${p = 0.046}$. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5%) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the $p$-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

DES Y1 results: Splitting growth and geometry to test $Λ$CDM

We analyze Dark Energy Survey (DES) data to constrain a cosmological model where a subset of parameters -- focusing on $Ω_m$ -- are split into versions associated with structure growth (e.g. $Ω_m^{\rm grow}$) and expansion history (e.g. $Ω_m^{\rm geo}$). Once the parameters have been specified for the $Λ$CDM cosmological model, which includes general relativity as a theory of gravity, it uniquely predicts the evolution of both geometry (distances) and the growth of structure over cosmic time. Any inconsistency between measurements of geometry and growth could therefore indicate a breakdown of that model. Our growth-geometry split approach therefore serves as both a (largely) model-independent test for beyond-$Λ$CDM physics, and as a means to characterize how DES observables provide cosmological information. We analyze the same multi-probe DES data as arXiv:1811.02375 : DES Year 1 (Y1) galaxy clustering and weak lensing, which are sensitive to both growth and geometry, as well as Y1 BAO and Y3 supernovae, which probe geometry. We additionally include external geometric information from BOSS DR12 BAO and a compressed Planck 2015 likelihood, and external growth information from BOSS DR12 RSD. We find no significant disagreement with $Ω_m^{\rm grow}=Ω_m^{\rm geo}$. When DES and external data are analyzed separately, degeneracies with neutrino mass and intrinsic alignments limit our ability to measure $Ω_m^{\rm grow}$, but combining DES with external data allows us to constrain both growth and geometric quantities. We also consider a parameterization where we split both $Ω_m$ and $w$, but find that even our most constraining data combination is unable to separately constrain $Ω_m^{\rm grow}$ and $w^{\rm grow}$. Relative to $Λ$CDM, splitting growth and geometry weakens bounds on $σ_8$ but does not alter constraints on $h$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Constraints on Extended Cosmological Models from Galaxy Clustering and Weak Lensing

We present constraints on extensions of the minimal cosmological models dominated by dark matter and dark energy, $Λ$CDM and $w$CDM, by using a combined analysis of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing from the first-year data of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y1) in combination with external data. We consider four extensions of the minimal dark energy-dominated scenarios: 1) nonzero curvature $Ω_k$, 2) number of relativistic species $N_{\rm eff}$ different from the standard value of 3.046, 3) time-varying equation-of-state of dark energy described by the parameters $w_0$ and $w_a$ (alternatively quoted by the values at the pivot redshift, $w_p$, and $w_a$), and 4) modified gravity described by the parameters $μ_0$ and $Σ_0$ that modify the metric potentials. We also consider external information from Planck CMB measurements; BAO measurements from SDSS, 6dF, and BOSS; RSD measurements from BOSS; and SNIa information from the Pantheon compilation. Constraints on curvature and the number of relativistic species are dominated by the external data; when these are combined with DES Y1, we find $Ω_k=0.0020^{+0.0037}_{-0.0032}$ at the 68% confidence level, and $N_{\rm eff}<3.28\, (3.55)$ at 68% (95%) confidence. For the time-varying equation-of-state, we find the pivot value $(w_p, w_a)=(-0.91^{+0.19}_{-0.23}, -0.57^{+0.93}_{-1.11})$ at pivot redshift $z_p=0.27$ from DES alone, and $(w_p, w_a)=(-1.01^{+0.04}_{-0.04}, -0.28^{+0.37}_{-0.48})$ at $z_p=0.20$ from DES Y1 combined with external data; in either case we find no evidence for the temporal variation of the equation of state. For modified gravity, we find the present-day value of the relevant parameters to be $Σ_0= 0.43^{+0.28}_{-0.29}$ from DES Y1 alone, and $(Σ_0, μ_0)=(0.06^{+0.08}_{-0.07}, -0.11^{+0.42}_{-0.46})$ from DES Y1 combined with external data, consistent with predictions from GR.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Cosmological Constraints from Multiple Probes in the Dark Energy Survey

The combination of multiple observational probes has long been advocated as a powerful technique to constrain cosmological parameters, in particular dark energy. The Dark Energy Survey has measured 207 spectroscopically--confirmed Type Ia supernova lightcurves; the baryon acoustic oscillation feature; weak gravitational lensing; and galaxy clustering. Here we present combined results from these probes, deriving constraints on the equation of state, $w$, of dark energy and its energy density in the Universe. Independently of other experiments, such as those that measure the cosmic microwave background, the probes from this single photometric survey rule out a Universe with no dark energy, finding $w=-0.80^{+0.09}_{-0.11}$. The geometry is shown to be consistent with a spatially flat Universe, and we obtain a constraint on the baryon density of $Ω_b=0.069^{+0.009}_{-0.012}$ that is independent of early Universe measurements. These results demonstrate the potential power of large multi-probe photometric surveys and pave the way for order of magnitude advances in our constraints on properties of dark energy and cosmology over the next decade.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2014

A ring system detected around the Centaur (10199) Chariklo

Until now, rings have been detected in the Solar System exclusively around the four giant planets. Here we report the discovery of the first minor-body ring system around the Centaur object (10199) Chariklo, a body with equivalent radius 124$\pm$9 km. A multi-chord stellar occultation revealed the presence of two dense rings around Chariklo, with widths of about 7 km and 3 km, optical depths 0.4 and 0.06, and orbital radii 391 and 405 km, respectively. The present orientation of the ring is consistent with an edge-on geometry in 2008, thus providing a simple explanation for the dimming of Chariklo's system between 1997 and 2008, and for the gradual disappearance of ice and other absorption features in its spectrum over the same period. This implies that the rings are partially composed of water ice. These rings may be the remnants of a debris disk, which were possibly confined by embedded kilometre-sized satellites.

astro-ph.EP↗