arXiv subjects

Pablo Azcue

Publications and source records attributed to Pablo Azcue.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Optimal Cash Transfers and Microinsurance to Reduce Social Protection Costs

Design and implementation of appropriate social protection strategies is one of the main targets of the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1: No Poverty. Cash transfer (CT) programmes are considered one of the main social protection strategies and an instrument for achieving SDG 1. Targeting consists of establishing eligibility criteria for beneficiaries of CT programmes. In low-income countries, where resources are limited, proper targeting of CTs is essential for an efficient use of resources. Given the growing importance of microinsurance as a complementary tool to social protection strategies, this study examines its role as a supplement to CT programmes. In this article, we adopt the piecewise-deterministic Markov process introduced in Kovacevic and Pflug (2011) to model the capital of a household, which when exposed to proportional capital losses (in contrast to the classical Cram\'er-Lundberg model) can push them into the poverty area. Striving for cost-effective CT programmes, we optimise the expected discounted cost of keeping the household's capital above the poverty line by means of injection of capital (as a direct capital transfer). Using dynamic programming techniques, we derive the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation associated with the optimal control problem of determining the amount of capital to inject over time. We show that this equation admits a viscosity solution that can be approximated numerically. Moreover, in certain special cases, we obtain closed-form expressions for the solution. Numerical examples show that there is an optimal level of injection above the poverty threshold, suggesting that efficient use of resources is achieved when CTs are preventive rather than reactive, since injecting capital into households when their capital levels are above the poverty line is less costly than to do so only when it falls below the threshold.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2025

Optimal dividends for a NatCat insurer in the presence of a climate tipping point

We study optimal dividend strategies for an insurance company facing natural catastrophe claims, anticipating the arrival of a climate tipping point after which the claim intensity and/or the claim size distribution of the underlying risks deteriorates irreversibly. Extending earlier literature based on a shot-noise Cox process assumption for claim arrivals, we show that the non-stationary feature of such a tipping point can, in fact, be an advantage for shareholders seeking to maximize expected discounted dividends over the lifetime of the portfolio. Assuming the tipping point arrives according to an Erlang distribution, we demonstrate that the corresponding system of two-dimensional stochastic control problems admits a viscosity solution, which can be numerically approximated using a discretization of the current surplus and the claim intensity level. We also prove uniform convergence of this discrete solution to that of the original continuous problem. The results are illustrated through several numerical examples, and the sensitivity of the optimal dividend strategies to the presence of a climate tipping point is analyzed. In all these examples, it turns out that when the insurance premium is adjusted fairly at the moment of the tipping point, and all quantities are observable, the non-stationarity introduced by the tipping point can, in fact, represent an upward potential for shareholders.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2023

Optimal dividend strategies for a catastrophe insurer

In this paper we study the problem of optimally paying out dividends from an insurance portfolio, when the criterion is to maximize the expected discounted dividends over the lifetime of the company and the portfolio contains claims due to natural catastrophes, modelled by a shot-noise Cox claim number process. The optimal value function of the resulting two-dimensional stochastic control problem is shown to be the smallest viscosity supersolution of a corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, and we prove that it can be uniformly approximated through a discretization of the space of the free surplus of the portfolio and the current claim intensity level. We implement the resulting numerical scheme to identify optimal dividend strategies for such a natural catastrophe insurer, and it is shown that the nature of the barrier and band strategies known from the classical models with constant Poisson claim intensity carry over in a certain way to this more general situation, leading to action and non-action regions for the dividend payments as a function of the current surplus and intensity level. We also discuss some interpretations in terms of upward potential for shareholders when including a catastrophe sector in the portfolio.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2022

Optimal dividends under a drawdown constraint and a curious square-root rule

In this paper we address the problem of optimal dividend payout strategies from a surplus process governed by Brownian motion with drift under a drawdown constraint, i.e. the dividend rate can never decrease below a given fraction $a$ of its historical maximum. We solve the resulting two-dimensional optimal control problem and identify the value function as the unique viscosity solution of the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. We then derive sufficient conditions under which a two-curve strategy is optimal, and show how to determine its concrete form using calculus of variations. We establish a smooth-pasting principle and show how it can be used to prove the optimality of two-curve strategies for sufficiently large initial and maximum dividend rate. We also give a number of numerical illustrations in which the optimality of the two-curve strategy can be established for instances with smaller values of the maximum dividend rate, and the concrete form of the curves can be determined. One observes that the resulting drawdown strategies nicely interpolate between the solution for the classical unconstrained dividend problem and the one for a ratcheting constraint as recently studied in Albrecher et al. (2022). When the maximum allowed dividend rate tends to infinity, we show a surprisingly simple and somewhat intriguing limit result in terms of the parameter $a$ for the surplus level on from which, for sufficiently large current dividend rate, a take-the-money-and-run strategy is optimal in the presence of the drawdown constraint.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Optimal Reinsurance to Minimize the Probability of Drawdown under the Mean-Variance Premium Principle: Asymptotic Analysis

In this paper, we consider an optimal reinsurance problem to minimize the probability of drawdown for the scaled Cram\'er-Lundberg risk model when the reinsurance premium is computed according to the mean-variance premium principle. We extend the work of Liang et al. [16] to the case of minimizing the probability of drawdown. By using the comparison method and the tool of adjustment coefficients, we show that the minimum probability of drawdown for the scaled classical risk model converges to the minimum probability for its diffusion approximation, and the rate of convergence is of order $O(n^{-1/2})$. We further show that using the optimal strategy from the diffusion approximation in the scaled classical risk model is $O(n^{-1/2})$-optimal.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Optimal ratcheting of dividends in a Brownian risk model

We study the problem of optimal dividend payout from a surplus process governed by Brownian motion with drift under the additional constraint of ratcheting, i.e. the dividend rate can never decrease. We solve the resulting two-dimensional optimal control problem, identifying the value function to be the unique viscosity solution of the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. For finitely many admissible dividend rates we prove that threshold strategies are optimal, and for any finite continuum of admissible dividend rates we establish the $\varepsilon$-optimality of curve strategies. This work is a counterpart of Albrecher et al. (2020), where the ratcheting problem was studied for a compound Poisson surplus process with drift. In the present Brownian setup, calculus of variation techniques allow to obtain a much more explicit analysis and description of the optimal dividend strategies. We also give some numerical illustrations of the optimality results.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Optimal strategies in a production-inventory control model

We consider a production-inventory control model with finite capacity and two different production rates, assuming that the cumulative process of customer demand is given by a compound Poisson process. It is possible at any time to switch over from the different production rates but it is mandatory to switch-off when the inventory process reaches the storage maximum capacity. We consider holding, production, shortage penalty and switching costs. This model was introduced by Doshi, Van Der Duyn Schouten and Talman in 1978. Our aim is to minimize the expected discounted cumulative costs up to infinity over all admissible switching strategies. We show that the optimal cost functions for the different production rates satisfy the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman system of equations in a viscosity sense and prove a verification theorem. The way in which the optimal cost functions solve the different variational inequalities gives the switching regions of the optimal strategy, hence it is stationary in the sense that depends only on the current production rate and inventory level. We define the notion of finite band strategies and derive, using scale functions, the formulas for the different costs of the band strategies with one or two bands. We also show that there are examples where the switching strategy presented by Doshi et al. is not the optimal strategy.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Optimal ratcheting of dividends in insurance

We address a long-standing open problem in risk theory, namely the optimal strategy to pay out dividends from an insurance surplus process, if the dividend rate can never be decreased. The optimality criterion here is to maximize the expected value of the aggregate discounted dividend payments up to the time of ruin. In the framework of the classical Cram\'{e}r-Lundberg risk model, we solve the corresponding two-dimensional optimal control problem and show that the value function is the unique viscosity solution of the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. We also show that the value function can be approximated arbitrarily closely by ratcheting strategies with only a finite number of possible dividend rates and identify the free boundary and the optimal strategies in several concrete examples. These implementations illustrate that the restriction of ratcheting does not lead to a large efficiency loss when compared to the classical un-constrained optimal dividend strategy.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2018

A multidimensional problem of optimal dividends with irreversible switching: a convergent numerical scheme

In this paper we study the problem of optimal dividend payment strategy which maximizes the expected discounted sum of dividends to a multidimensional set up of n associated insurance companies where the surplus process follows an n-dimensional compound Poisson process. The general manager of the companies has the possibility at any time to exercise an irreversible switch into another regime; we also take into account an expected discounted value at ruin. This multidimensional dividend problem is a mixed singular control/optimal problem. We prove that the optimal value function is a viscosity solution of the associated HJB equation and that it can be characterized as the smallest viscosity supersolution. The main contribution of the paper is to provide a numerical method to approximate (locally uniformly) the optimal value function by an increasing sequence of sub-optimal value functions of admissible strategies defined in an n-dimensional grid. As a numerical example, we present the optimal time of merger for two insurance companies.

math.OC↗

arXiv2016

Optimal dividend payments for a two-dimensional insurance risk process

We consider a two-dimensional optimal dividend problem in the context of two branches of an insurance company with compound Poisson surplus processes dividing claims and premia in some specified proportions. We solve the stochastic control problem of maximizing expected cumulative discounted dividend payments (among all admissible dividend strategies) until ruin of at least one company. We prove that the value function is the smallest viscosity supersolution of the respective Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and we describe the optimal strategy. We analize some numerical examples.

math.OC↗

arXiv2015

Optimal Dividend Strategies for Two Collaborating Insurance Companies

We consider a two-dimensional optimal dividend problem in the context of two insurance companies with compound Poisson surplus processes, who collaborate by paying each other's deficit when possible. We solve the stochastic control problem of maximizing the weighted sum of expected discounted dividend payments (among all admissible dividend strategies) until ruin of both companies, by extending results of univariate optimal control theory. In the case that the dividends paid by the two companies are equally weighted, the value function of this problem compares favorably with the one of merging the two companies completely. We identify this optimal value function as the smallest viscosity supersolution of the respective Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and provide an iterative approach to approximate it numerically. Curve strategies are identified as the natural analogue of barrier strategies in this two-dimensional context. A numerical example is given for which such a curve strategy is indeed optimal among all admissible dividend strategies, and for which this collaboration mechanism also outperforms the suitably weighted optimal dividend strategies of the two stand-alone companies.

math.OC↗

arXiv2010

Optimal investment policy and dividend payment strategy in an insurance company

We consider in this paper the optimal dividend problem for an insurance company whose uncontrolled reserve process evolves as a classical Cram\'{e}r--Lundberg process. The firm has the option of investing part of the surplus in a Black--Scholes financial market. The objective is to find a strategy consisting of both investment and dividend payment policies which maximizes the cumulative expected discounted dividend pay-outs until the time of bankruptcy. We show that the optimal value function is the smallest viscosity solution of the associated second-order integro-differential Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equation. We study the regularity of the optimal value function. We show that the optimal dividend payment strategy has a band structure. We find a method to construct a candidate solution and obtain a verification result to check optimality. Finally, we give an example where the optimal dividend strategy is not barrier and the optimal value function is not twice continuously differentiable.

q-fin.PM↗