arXiv subjects

Pantelis P. Analytis

Publications and source records attributed to Pantelis P. Analytis.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond AI advice -- independent aggregation boosts human-AI accuracy

Artificial intelligence (AI) is broadly deployed as an advisor to human decision-makers: AI recommends a decision and a human accepts or rejects the advice. This approach, however, has several limitations: People frequently ignore accurate advice and rely too much on inaccurate advice, and their decision-making skills may deteriorate over time. Here, we compare the AI-as-advisor approach to the hybrid confirmation tree (HCT), an alternative strategy that preserves the independence of human and AI judgments. The HCT elicits a human judgment and an AI judgment independently of each other. If they agree, that decision is accepted. If not, a second human breaks the tie. For the comparison, we used 10 datasets from various domains, including medical diagnostics and misinformation discernment, and a subset of four datasets in which AI also explained its decision. The HCT outperformed the AI-as-advisor approach in all datasets. The HCT also performed better in almost all cases in which AI offered an explanation of its judgment. Using signal detection theory to interpret these results, we find that the HCT outperforms the AI-as-advisor approach because people cannot discriminate well enough between correct and incorrect AI advice. Overall, the HCT is a robust, accurate, and transparent alternative to the AI-as-advisor approach, offering a simple mechanism to tap into the wisdom of hybrid crowds.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

The hybrid confirmation tree: A robust strategy for hybrid intelligence

Combining human and artificial intelligence (AI) is a potentially powerful approach to boost decision accuracy. However, few such approaches exist that effectively integrate both types of intelligence while maintaining human agency. Here, we introduce and evaluate the hybrid confirmation tree, a simple aggregation strategy that compares the independent decisions of both a human and AI, with disagreements triggering a second human tiebreaker. Through analytical derivations, we show that the hybrid confirmation tree can match and exceed the accuracy of a three-person human majority vote while requiring fewer human inputs, particularly when AI accuracy is comparable to or exceeds human accuracy. We analytically demonstrate that the hybrid confirmation tree's ability to achieve complementarity -- outperforming individual humans, AI, and the majority vote -- is maximized when human and AI accuracies are similar and their decisions are not overly correlated. Empirical reanalysis of six real-world datasets (covering skin cancer diagnosis, deepfake detection, geopolitical forecasting, and criminal rearrest) validates these findings, showing that the hybrid confirmation tree improves accuracy over the majority vote by up to 10 percentage points while reducing the cost of decision making by 28--44$\%$. Furthermore, the hybrid confirmation tree provides greater flexibility in navigating true and false positive trade-offs compared to fixed human-only heuristics like hierarchies and polyarchies. The hybrid confirmation tree emerges as a practical, efficient, and robust strategy for hybrid collective intelligence that maintains human agency.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Social Influence Distorts Ratings in Online Interfaces

Theoretical work on sequential choice and large-scale experiments in online ranking and voting systems has demonstrated that social influence can have a drastic impact on social and technological systems. Yet, the effect of social influence on online rating systems remains understudied and the few existing contributions suggest that online ratings would self-correct given enough users. Here, we propose a new framework for studying the effect of social influence on online ratings. We start from the assumption that people are influenced linearly by the observed average rating, but postulate that their propensity to be influenced varies. When the weight people assign to the observed average depends only on their own latent rating, the resulting system is linear, but the long-term rating may substantially deviate from the true mean rating. When the weight people put on the observed average depends on both their own latent rating and the observed average rating, the resulting system is non-linear, and may support multiple equilibria, suggesting that ratings might be path-dependent and deviations dramatic. Our results highlight potential limitations in crowdsourced information aggregation and can inform the design of more robust online rating systems.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

A recommender network perspective on the informational value of critics and crowds

How do the ratings of critics and amateurs compare and how should they be combined? Previous research has produced mixed results about the first question, while the second remains unanswered. We have created a new, unique dataset, with wine ratings from critics and amateurs, and simulated a recommender system using the k-nearest-neighbor algorithm. We then formalized the advice seeking network spanned by that algorithm and studied people's relative influence. We find that critics are more consistent than amateurs, and thus their advice is more predictive than advice from amateurs. Getting advice from both groups can further boost performance. Our network theoretic approach allows us to identify influential critics, talented amateurs, and the information flow between groups. Our results provide evidence about the informational function of critics, while our framework is broadly applicable and can be leveraged to devise good decision strategies and more transparent recommender systems.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

The marginal majority effect: when social influence produces lock-in

People are influenced by the choices of others, a phenomenon observed across contexts in the social and behavioral sciences. Social influence can lock in an initial popularity advantage of an option over a higher quality alternative. Yet several experiments designed to enable social influence have found that social systems self-correct rather than lock-in. Here we identify a behavioral phenomenon that makes inferior lock-in possible, which we call the 'marginal majority effect': A discontinuous increase in the choice probability of an option as its popularity exceeds that of a competing option. We demonstrate the existence of marginal majority effects in several recent experiments and show that lock-in always occurs when the effect is large enough to offset the quality effect on choice, but rarely otherwise. Our results reconcile conflicting past empirical evidence and connect a behavioral phenomenon to the possibility of social lock-in.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Ranking-based rich-get-richer processes

We study a discrete-time Markov process $X_n\in\mathbb{R}^d$, for which the distribution of the future increments depends only on the relative ranking of its components (descending order by value). We endow the process with a rich-get-richer assumption and show that, together with a finite second moments assumption, it is enough to guarantee almost sure convergence of $X_n$ / $n$. We characterize the possible limits if one is free to choose the initial state, and give a condition under which the initial state is irrelevant. Finally, we show how our framework can account for ranking-based Pólya urns and can be used to study ranking-algorithms for web interfaces.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

A preference elicitation interface for collecting dense recommender datasets with rich user information

We present an interface that can be leveraged to quickly and effortlessly elicit people's preferences for visual stimuli, such as photographs, visual art and screensavers, along with rich side-information about its users. We plan to employ the new interface to collect dense recommender datasets that will complement existing sparse industry-scale datasets. The new interface and the collected datasets are intended to foster integration of research in recommender systems with research in social and behavioral sciences. For instance, we will use the datasets to assess the diversity of human preferences in different domains of visual experience. Further, using the datasets we will be able to measure crucial psychological effects, such as preference consistency, scale acuity and anchoring biases. Last, we the datasets will facilitate evaluation in counterfactual learning experiments.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Ranking with social cues: Integrating online review scores and popularity information

Online marketplaces, search engines, and databases employ aggregated social information to rank their content for users. Two ranking heuristics commonly implemented to order the available options are the average review score and item popularity-that is, the number of users who have experienced an item. These rules, although easy to implement, only partly reflect actual user preferences, as people may assign values to both average scores and popularity and trade off between the two. How do people integrate these two pieces of social information when making choices? We present two experiments in which we asked participants to choose 200 times among options drawn directly from two widely used online venues: Amazon and IMDb. The only information presented to participants was the average score and the number of reviews, which served as a proxy for popularity. We found that most people are willing to settle for items with somewhat lower average scores if they are more popular. Yet, our study uncovered substantial diversity of preferences among participants, which indicates a sizable potential for personalizing ranking schemes that rely on social information.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2017

Diversity of preferences can increase collective welfare in sequential exploration problems

In search engines, online marketplaces and other human-computer interfaces large collectives of individuals sequentially interact with numerous alternatives of varying quality. In these contexts, trial and error (exploration) is crucial for uncovering novel high-quality items or solutions, but entails a high cost for individual users. Self-interested decision makers, are often better off imitating the choices of individuals who have already incurred the costs of exploration. Although imitation makes sense at the individual level, it deprives the group of additional information that could have been gleaned by individual explorers. In this paper we show that in such problems, preference diversity can function as a welfare enhancing mechanism. It leads to a consistent increase in the quality of the consumed alternatives that outweighs the increased cost of search for the users.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2013

Social Influence and the Collective Dynamics of Opinion Formation

Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing how participants answering factual questions revise their initial judgments after being exposed to the opinion and confidence level of others. Based on the observation of 59 experimental subjects exposed to peer-opinion for 15 different items, we draw an influence map that describes the strength of peer influence during interactions. A simple process model derived from our observations demonstrates how opinions in a group of interacting people can converge or split over repeated interactions. In particular, we identify two major attractors of opinion: (i) the expert effect, induced by the presence of a highly confident individual in the group, and (ii) the majority effect, caused by the presence of a critical mass of laypeople sharing similar opinions. Additional simulations reveal the existence of a tipping point at which one attractor will dominate over the other, driving collective opinion in a given direction. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms of public opinion formation and managing conflicting situations in which self-confident and better informed minorities challenge the views of a large uninformed majority.

physics.soc-ph↗