arXiv subjects

Paola Pinilla

Publications and source records attributed to Paola Pinilla.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Hints of planet formation signatures in a large-cavity disk studied in the AGE-PRO ALMA Large Program

Detecting planet signatures in protoplanetary disks is fundamental to understanding how and where planets form. In this work, we report dust and gas observational hints of planet formation in the disk around 2MASS-J16120668-301027, as part of the ALMA Large Program "AGE-PRO: ALMA survey of Gas Evolution in Protoplanetary disks". The disk was imaged with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) at Band 6 (1.3 mm) in dust continuum emission and four molecular lines: $^{12}$CO(J=2-1), $^{13}$CO(J=2-1), C$^{18}$O(J=2-1), and H$_2$CO(J=3$_{(3,0)}$-2$_{(2,0)}$). Resolved observations of the dust continuum emission (angular resolution of $\sim 150$ mas, 20 au) show a ring-like structure with a peak at $0.57 ^{\prime \prime}$ (75 au), a deep gap with a minimum at 0.24$^{\prime \prime}$ (31 au), an inner disk, a bridge connecting the inner disk and the outer ring, along with a spiral arm structure, and a tentative detection (to $3σ$) of a compact emission at the center of the disk gap, with an estimated dust mass of $\sim 2.7-12.9$ Lunar masses. We also detected a kinematic kink (not coincident with any dust substructure) through several $^{12}$CO channel maps (angular resolution $\sim$ 200 mas, 30 au), located at a radius of $\sim 0.875^{\prime \prime}$ (115.6 au). After modeling the $^{12}$CO velocity rotation around the protostar, we identified a tentative rotating-like structure at the kink location with a geometry similar to that of the disk. We discuss potential explanations for the dust and gas substructures observed in the disk, and their potential connection to signatures of planet formation.

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arXiv2025

The ALMA Survey of Gas Evolution of PROtoplanetary Disks (AGE-PRO): V. Protoplanetary gas disk masses

The evolution of the gas mass of planet-forming disks around young stars is crucial for our understanding of planet formation, yet it has proven hard to constrain observationally, due both to the difficulties of measuring gas masses and the lack of a homogeneous sample. Here we present a large grid of thermochemical models which we use to measure protoplanetary gas disk masses of AGE-PRO, the ALMA survey of Gas Evolution in PROtoplanetary disks. AGE-PRO covers a sample of 30 disks around similar spectral type (M3-K6) stars with ages between 0.1 and 10 Myr. Our approach is to simultaneously fit observations of CO isotopologues and N2H+, a complementary molecule produced when CO freezes out. We find that the median gas mass of the three regions decreases over time, from 7.0(+4.4,-2.6)x10^-3 Msun in Ophiuchus (<1 Myr) to 9.4(+5.4,-3.4)x10^-4 Msun for Lupus (~1-3 Myr) and 6.8(+5.1,-2.8)x10^-4 Msun for Upper Sco (~2-6 Myr), with ~1 dex scatter in gas mass in each region. We note that the gas mass distributions for Lupus and Upper Sco look very similar, which could be due to survivorship bias for the latter. The median bulk CO abundance in the CO emitting layer is found to be a factor ~10 lower than the ISM value but does not significantly change between Lupus and Upper Sco. From Lupus to Upper Sco the median gas-to-dust mass ratio increases by a factor ~3 from ~40 to ~120, suggesting efficient inward pebble drift and/or the formation of planetesimals.

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arXiv2025

The ALMA Survey of Gas Evolution of PROtoplanetary Disks (AGE-PRO): VII. Testing accretion mechanisms from disk population synthesis

The architecture of planetary systems depends on the evolution of the disks in which they form. In this work, we develop a population synthesis approach to interpret the AGE-PRO measurements of disk gas mass and size considering two scenarios: turbulence-driven evolution with photoevaporative winds and MHD disk-wind-driven evolution. A systematic method is proposed to constrain the distribution of disk parameters from the disk fractions, accretion rates, disk gas masses, and CO gas sizes. We find that turbulence-driven accretion with initially compact disks ($R_0 \simeq 5-20~$au), low mass-loss rates, and relatively long viscous timescales ($t_{ν,0} \simeq 0.4-3~$Myr or $α_{SS} \simeq 2-4 \times 10^{-4}$) can reproduce the disk fraction and gas sizes. However, the distribution of apparent disk lifetime defined as the $M_D/\dot{M}_*$ ratio is severely overestimated by turbulence-driven models. On the other hand, MHD wind-driven accretion can reproduce the bulk properties of the disk populations from Ophiuchus to Upper Sco assuming compact disks with an initial magnetization of about $β\simeq 10^5$ ($α_{DW} \simeq 0.5-1 \times 10^{-3}$) and a magnetic field that declines with time. More studies are needed to confirm the low masses found by AGE-PRO, notably for compact disks that question turbulence-driven accretion. The constrained synthetic disk populations can now be used for realistic planet population models to interpret the properties of planetary systems on a statistical basis.

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arXiv2025

The ALMA Survey of Gas Evolution of PROtoplanetary Disks (AGE-PRO): X. Dust Substructures, Disk Geometries, and Dust-disk Radii

We perform visibility fitting to the dust continuum Band 6 1.3 mm data of the 30 protoplanetary disks in the AGE-PRO ALMA Large Program. We obtain disk geometries, dust-disk radii, and azimuthally symmetric radial profiles of the intensity of the dust continuum emission. We examine the presence of continuum substructures in the AGE-PRO sample by using these radial profiles and their residuals. We detect substructures in 15 out of 30 disks. We report five disks with large ($>$15 au) inner dust cavities. The Ophiuchus Class I disks show dust-disk substructures in $\sim80\%$ of the resolved sources. This evidences the early formation of substructures in protoplanetary disks. A spiral is identified in IRS 63, hinting to gravitational instability in this massive disk. We compare our dust-disk brightness radial profiles with gas-disk brightness radial profiles and discuss colocal substructures in both tracers. In addition, we discuss the evolution of dust-disk radii and substructures across Ophiuchus, Lupus, and Upper Scorpius. We find that disks in Lupus and Upper Scorpius with large inner dust cavities have typical gas-disk masses, suggesting an abundance of dust cavities in these regions. The prevalence of pressure dust traps at later ages is supported by a potential trend with time with more disks with large inner dust cavities (or "transition disks") in Upper Scorpius and the absence of evolution of dust-disk sizes with time in the AGE-PRO sample. We propose this is caused by an evolutionary sequence with a high fraction of protoplanetary disks with inner protoplanets carving dust cavities.

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arXiv2025

The ALMA Survey of Gas Evolution of PROtoplanetary Disks (AGE-PRO): XI. Beam-corrected gas disk sizes from fitting 12CO moment zero maps

The inward drift of mm-cm sized pebbles in protoplanetary disks has become an important part of our current theories of planet formation and, more recently, planet composition as well. The gas-to-dust size ratio of protoplanetary disks can provide an important constraint on how pebbles have drifted inward provided that observational effects, especially resolution, can be accounted for. Here we present a method for fitting beam-convolved models to integrated intensity maps of line emission using the astropy python package and use it to fit 12 CO moment zero maps of ten Lupus and ten Upper Scorpius protoplanetary disks from the AGE-PRO ALMA Large Program, a sample of disks around M3-K6 stars that cover the ~1 to 6 Myr of gas disk evolution. From the unconvolved best fit models we measure the gas disk size (RCO,90%[model]), which we combine with the dust disk size (Rdust,90%[FRANK]) from continuum visibility fits from Vioque et al. (2025, in press.) to compute beam-corrected gas-to-dust size ratios. In our sample we find gas-to-dust size ratios between ~1 and ~5.5, with a median value of 2.78(+0.37,-0.32). Contrary to models of dust evolution that predict an increasing size ratio with time, we find that the younger disks in Lupus have similar (or even larger) median ratios (3.02(+0.33,-0.33)) than the older disks in Upper Sco (2.46(+0.53,-0.38)). A possible explanation to this discrepancy is that pebble drift is halted in dust traps combined with truncation of the gas disk by external photo-evaporation in Upper Sco, although survivorship bias could also play a role.

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arXiv2025

Detection of Hydrocarbons in the Disk around an Actively-Accreting Planetary-Mass Object

We present the 0.6--12-micron spectrum of Cha\,1107-7626, a 6-10 Jupiter-mass free-floating object in the $\sim$2\,Myr-old Chamaeleon-I star-forming region, from observations with the NIRSpec and MIRI instruments onboard the James Webb Space Telescope. We confirm that Cha\,1107-7626 is one of the lowest-mass objects known to harbor a dusty disk with infrared excess emission at wavelengths beyond 4 microns. Our NIRSpec data, and prior ground-based observations, provide strong evidence for ongoing accretion through Hydrogen recombination lines. In the mid-infrared spectrum, we detect unambiguously emission lines caused by methane (CH$_\mathrm{4}$) and ethylene (C$_\mathrm{2}$H$_\mathrm{4}$) in its circum-substellar disk. Our findings mean that Cha 1107-7626 is by far the lowest-mass object with hydrocarbons observed in its disk. The spectrum of the disk looks remarkably similar to that of ISO-ChaI 147, a very low mass star with a carbon-rich disk that is 10 to 20 times more massive than Cha\,1107-7626. The hydrocarbon lines can be accounted for with a model assuming gas temperatures of a few hundred Kelvin in the inner disk. The obvious similarities between the spectra of a low-mass star and a planetary-mass object indicate that the conditions in the inner disks can be similar across a wide range of central object masses.

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arXiv2025

Hints of Disk Substructure in the First Brown Dwarf with a Dynamical Mass Constraint

We present high-resolution ALMA observations at 0.89 mm of the Class II brown dwarf 2MASS J04442713+2512164 (2M0444), achieving a spatial resolution of 0$.\!\!^{\prime\prime}$046 ($\sim$6.4 au at the distance to the source). These observations targeted continuum emission together with $^{12}$CO (3-2) molecular line. The line emission traces a Keplerian disk, allowing us to derive a dynamical mass between 0.043-0.092 M${_{\odot}}$ for the central object. We constrain the gas-to-dust disk size ratio to be $\sim$7, consistent with efficient radial drift. However, the observed dust emission suggest that a dust trap is present, enough to retain some dust particles. We perform visibility fitting of the continuum emission, and under the assumption of annular substructure, our best fit shows a gap and a ring at 98.1$^{+4.2}_{-8.4}$ mas ($\sim$14 au) and 116.0$^{+4.2}_{-4.8}$ mas ($\sim$16 au), respectively, with a gap width of 20 mas ($\sim$3 au). To ensure robustness, the data were analyzed through a variety of methods in both the image and uv plane, employing multiple codes and approaches. This tentative disk structure could be linked to a possible planetary companion in the process of formation. These results provide the first dynamical mass of the lowest mass object to date, together with the possible direct detection of a substructure, offering new insights into disk dynamics and planet formation in the very low-mass regime. Future higher spatial resolution ALMA observations will be essential to confirm these findings and further investigate the link between substructures and planet formation in brown dwarf disks.

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arXiv2025

The past, present and future of observations of externally irradiated disks

Recent years have seen a surge of interest in the community studying the effect of ultraviolet radiation environment, predominantly set by OB stars, on protoplanetary disc evolution and planet formation. This is important because a significant fraction of planetary systems, potentially including our own, formed in close proximity to OB stars. This is a rapidly developing field, with a broad range of observations across many regions recently obtained or recently scheduled. In this paper, stimulated by a series of workshops on the topic, we take stock of the current and upcoming observations. We discuss how the community can build on this recent success with future observations to make progress in answering the big questions of the field, with the broad goal of disentangling how external photoevaporation contributes to shaping the observed (exo)planet population. Both existing and future instruments offer numerous opportunities to make progress towards this goal.

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arXiv2025

A link between rocky exoplanet composition and stellar age

Interior compositions are key for our understanding of Earth-like exoplanets. The composition of the core can influence the presence of a magnetic dynamo and the strength of gravity on the planetary surface, both of which heavily impact thermal and possible biological processes and thus the habitability for life and its evolution on the planet. However, detailed measurements of the planetary interiors are extremely challenging for small exoplanets, and existing data suggest a wide diversity in planet compositions. Hitherto, only certain photospheric chemical abundances of the host stars have been considered as tracers to explain the diversity of exoplanet compositions. Here we present a homogeneous analysis of stars hosting rocky exoplanets, with ages between 2 and 14 Gyr, revealing a correlation between rocky exoplanet compositions and the ages of the planetary systems. Denser rocky planets are found around younger stars. This suggests that the compositional diversity of rocky exoplanets can be linked to the ages of their host stars. We interpret this to be a result of chemical evolution of stars in the Milky Way, which modifies the material out of which stars and planets form. The results imply that rocky planets which form today, at similar galactocentric radii, may have different formation conditions, and thus different properties than planets which formed several billion years ago, such as the Earth.

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arXiv2025

High angular resolution evidence of dust traps from deep ALMA Band 3 observations of LkCa15

Dust traps are the most promising mechanisms to explain the observed substructures in protoplanetary discs. In this work, we present high-angular resolution ($\sim$60 mas, 9.4 au) and high-sensitivity Atacama Large Millimetre/submillimetre Array (ALMA) observations at 3 mm of the transitional disc around LkCa15. The new data, combined with previous high-resolution observations at $λ=0.87,1.3$ mm, make LkCa15 an ideal laboratory for testing the dust trapping mechanism. We found that the width of the three rings decreases linearly with frequency, and the spectral indices show local minima at the locations of the rings, consistent with dust trap models. Multi-wavelength modelling confirms that the dust surface density and maximum grain size peak at 69 and 101 au, and suggestive peak at 42 au. The estimated total dust mass is between 13-250 M$_{\oplus}$, depending on the chosen opacity. The inner disc shows bright and unresolved emission at 3 mm, exhibiting a spectral index of $α_{1.3-3 \rm mm} = 0.3 \pm 0.37$, and $α_{\rm 3mm-3cm}$ ranging from $-0.1$ to $0.0$. These properties are consistent with free-free emission from an ionised jet or disc wind. Dust evolution models and radiative transfer calculations suggest that a viscosity coefficient of $α= 10^{-3}$, a fragmentation velocity of 10 m s$^{-1}$, and DSHARP opacities provide the best match to the observed properties.

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arXiv2025

A high-resolution survey of protoplanetary disks in Lupus and the nature of compact disks

Most of the exoplanets discovered in our galaxy to date orbit low-mass stars, which tend to host small disks in their early stages. To better elucidate the link between planet formation and disk substructures, observational biases should be reduced through observations of these small, faint disks at the highest resolution using the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA). In this work, we present new high-resolution (0.03-0.04") ALMA observations at 1.3 mm of 33 disks located in the Lupus star-forming region. Combining archival data and previously published work, we provide a near-complete high resolution image library of 73 protoplanetary (Class II) disks in Lupus. This enable us to measure dust disk radii down to a limit of 0.6 au and analyze intensity profiles using visibility modeling. We show that 67% of Lupus protoplanetary disks have dust radii smaller than 30 au, with new substructures detected in 11, showing some of the shortest separation gaps. The size-luminosity relation in Lupus aligns well with a drift-dominated dust evolution scenario and, for the most compact disks (< 30 au), we found dust masses ranging from 0.3 to 26.3 Earth masses. Assuming that the detected substructures were dynamical effects of planets, we estimated the planet masses to range from 20 to 2000 Earth masses with separations between 2 to 74 au. Our results indicate that two-thirds of the protoplanetary disks in Lupus are smooth, and compact, with substructures being more prominent in the few larger disks. These compact disks are consistent with drift-dominated evolution, with their masses and optical depths suggesting that they may have already experienced some planet formation, with most of the small solids converted into planetesimals and planets. This makes them prime candidates, for explaining the formation and origin of super-Earths. [Abridged]

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arXiv2025

The rapid formation of macromolecules in irradiated ice of protoplanetary disk dust traps

Organic macromolecular matter is the dominant carrier of volatile elements such as carbon, nitrogen, and noble gases in chondrites -- the rocky building blocks from which Earth formed. How this macromolecular substance formed in space is unclear. We show that its formation could be associated with the presence of dust traps, which are prominent mechanisms for forming planetesimals in planet-forming disks. We demonstrate the existence of heavily irradiated zones in dust traps, where small frozen molecules that coat large quantities of microscopic dust grains could be rapidly converted into macromolecular matter by receiving radiation doses of up to several 10s of eV molecule$^{-1}$ year$^{-1}$. This allows for the transformation of simple molecules into complex macromolecular matter within several decades. Up to roughly 4$\%$ of the total disk ice reservoir can be processed this way and subsequently incorporated into the protoplanetary disk midplane where planetesimals form. This finding shows that planetesimal formation and the production of organic macromolecular matter, which provides the essential elemental building blocks for life, might be linked.

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arXiv2025

Smuggling unnoticed: Towards a 2D view of water and dust delivery to the inner regions of protoplanetary discs

Infrared spectroscopy, e.g., with JWST, provides a glimpse into the chemical inventory of the innermost region of protoplanetary discs, where terrestrial planets eventually form. The chemical make-up of regions inside snowlines is connected to the material drifting from the outer regions, which can be modeled with dust evolution models. However, infrared observations are limited by the high dust extinction in the inner disc, and only probes the abundances of gaseous species in the disc surface layers. As a result, the bulk mass of delivered volatiles is not directly relatable to what is measured through infrared spectra. In this paper, we investigate how the delivery of dust and ice after prolonged pebble drift affects the observable reservoir of water vapor in the inner disc. We develop a 1+1D approach based on dust evolution models to determine the delivery and distribution of vapor compared to the height of the $τ= 1$ surface in the dust continuum. We find that the observable column density of water vapor at wavelengths probed by JWST spans many orders of magnitude over time, exhibiting different radial profiles depending on dust properties, drift rate, and local processing. In the presence of a traffic-jam effect inside the snowline, the observable vapor reservoir appears constant in time despite the ongoing delivery by pebble drift, such that water is effectively smuggled unnoticed. Differences in measured column densities then originate not only from variations in bulk vapor content, but also from differences in the properties and distribution of dust particles.

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arXiv2024

The First JWST View of a 30-Myr-old Protoplanetary Disk Reveals a Late-stage Carbon-rich Phase

We present a JWST MIRI/MRS spectrum of the inner disk of WISE J044634.16$-$262756.1B (hereafter J0446B), an old ($\sim$34 Myr) M4.5 star but with hints of ongoing accretion. The spectrum is molecule-rich and dominated by hydrocarbons. We detect 14 molecular species (H$_2$, CH$_3$, CH$_4$, C$_2$H$_2$, $^{13}$CCH$_2$, C$_2$H$_4$, C$_2$H$_6$, C$_3$H$_4$, C$_4$H$_2$, C$_6$H$_6$, HCN, HC$_3$N, CO$_2$ and $^{13}$CO$_2$) and 2 atomic lines ([Ne II] and [Ar II]), all observed for the first time in a disk at this age. The detection of spatially unresolved H$_2$ and Ne gas strongly supports that J0446B hosts a long-lived primordial disk, rather than a debris disk. The marginal H$_2$O detection and the high C$_2$H$_2$/CO$_2$ column density ratio indicate that the inner disk of J0446B has a very carbon-rich chemistry, with a gas-phase C/O ratio $\gtrsim$2, consistent with what have been found in most primordial disks around similarly low-mass stars. In the absence of significant outer disk dust substructures, inner disks are expected to first become water-rich due to the rapid inward drift of icy pebbles, and evolve into carbon-rich as outer disk gas flows inward on longer timescales. The faint millimeter emission in such low-mass star disks implies that they may have depleted their outer icy pebble reservoir early and already passed the water-rich phase. Models with pebble drift and volatile transport suggest that maintaining a carbon-rich chemistry for tens of Myr likely requires a slowly evolving disk with $α-$viscosity $\lesssim10^{-4}$. This study represents the first detailed characterization of disk gas at $\sim$30 Myr, strongly motivating further studies into the final stages of disk evolution.

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arXiv2024

Water in protoplanetary disks with JWST-MIRI: spectral excitation atlas and radial distribution from temperature diagnostic diagrams and Doppler mapping

This work aims at providing fundamental general tools for the analysis of water spectra as observed in protoplanetary disks with JWST-MIRI. We analyze 25 high-quality spectra from the JDISC Survey reduced with asteroid calibrators as presented in Pontoppidan et al. (2024). First, we present a spectral atlas to illustrate the clustering of H$_2$O transitions from different upper level energies ($E_u$) and identify single (un-blended) transitions that provide the most reliable measurements. With that, we demonstrate two important excitation effects: the opacity saturation of ortho-para line pairs that overlap, and the non-LTE excitation of $v=1-1$ lines scattered across the $v=0-0$ rotational band. Second, we define a shorter list of fundamental lines spanning $E_u=$ 1500-6000 K to develop simple line-ratio diagnostic diagrams for the radial temperature distribution of water in inner disks, which can be interpreted using discrete temperature components or a radial gradient. Third, we report the detection of disk-rotation Doppler broadening of molecular lines, which confirms the radial distribution of water emission including, for the first time, the radially-extended $\approx$ 170-220 K reservoir close to the snowline. The combination of measured line ratios and broadening suggests that drift-dominated disks have shallower temperature gradients with an extended cooler disk surface enriched by ice sublimation. We also report the first detection of a H$_2$O-rich inner disk wind from narrow blue-shifted absorption in the ro-vibrational lines. We summarize these findings and tools into a general recipe to make the study of water in planet-forming regions reliable, effective, and sustainable for samples of $> 100$ disks.

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arXiv2024

Potential for life to exist and be detected on Earth-like planets orbiting white dwarfs

With recent observations confirming exoplanets orbiting white dwarfs, there is growing interest in exploring and quantifying the habitability of temperate rocky planets around white dwarfs. In this work, the limits of the habitable zone of an Earth-like planet around a white dwarf are computed based on the incident stellar flux, and these limits are utilized to assess the duration of habitability at a given orbital distance. For a typical $0.6 M_\odot$ white dwarf an Earth-like planet at $\sim 0.012$ AU could remain in the temporally evolving habitable zone, maintaining conditions to support life, for nearly 7 Gyr. In addition, additional constraints on habitability are studied for the first time by imposing the requirement of receiving sufficient photon fluxes for UV-mediated prebiotic chemistry and photosynthesis. We demonstrate that these thresholds are comfortably exceeded by planets in the habitable zone. The prospects for detecting atmospheric biosignatures are also evaluated, and shown to require integration times on the order of one hour or less for ongoing space observations with JWST.

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arXiv2024

JWST/MIRI detection of a carbon-rich chemistry in a solar nebula analog

It has been proposed, and confirmed by multiple observations, that disks around low mass stars display a molecule-rich emission and carbon-rich disk chemistry as compared to their hotter, more massive solar counterparts. In this work, we present JWST Disk Infrared Spectral Chemistry Survey (JDISCS) MIRI-MRS observations of the solar-mass star DoAr 33, a low-accretion rate T Tauri star showing an exceptional carbon-rich inner disk. We report detections of H$_2$O, OH, and CO$_2$, as well as the more complex hydrocarbons, C$_2$H$_2$ and C$_4$H$_2$. Through the use of thermochemical models, we explore different spatial distributions of carbon and oxygen across the inner disk and compare the column densities and temperatures obtained from LTE slab model retrievals. We find a best match to the observed column densities with models that have carbon enrichment, and the retrieved emitting temperature and area of C$_2$H$_2$ with models that have C/O $=$ 2$-$4 inside the 500 K carbon-rich dust sublimation line. This suggests that the origin of the carbon-rich chemistry is likely due to the sublimation of carbon rich grains near the soot line. This would be consistent with the presence of dust processing as indicated by the detection of crystalline silicates. We propose that this long-lived hydrocarbon rich chemistry observed around a solar-mass star is a consequence of the unusually low M-star-like accretion rate of the central star, which lengthens the radial mixing timescale of the inner disk allowing the chemistry powered by carbon grain destruction to linger.

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arXiv2024

Retrieval of Thermally-Resolved Water Vapor Distributions in Disks Observed with JWST-MIRI

The mid-infrared water vapor emission spectrum provides a novel way to characterize the delivery of icy pebbles towards the innermost ($<5$ au) regions of planet-forming disks. Recently, JWST MIRI-MRS showed that compact disks exhibit an excess of low-energy water vapor emission relative to extended multi-gapped disks, suggesting that icy pebble drift is more efficient in the former. We carry out detailed emission line modeling to retrieve the excitation conditions of rotational water vapor emission in a sample of four compact and three extended disks within the JDISC Survey. We present two-temperature H$_2$O slab model retrievals and, for the first time, constrain the spatial distribution of water vapor by fitting parametric radial temperature and column density profiles. Such models statistically outperform the two-temperature slab fits. We find a correlation between the observable hot water vapor mass and stellar mass accretion rate, as well as an anti-correlation between cold water vapor mass and sub-mm dust disk radius, confirming previously reported water line flux trends. We find that the mid-IR spectrum traces H$_2$O with temperatures down to 180-300 K, but the coldest 150-170 K gas remains undetected. Furthermore the H$_2$O temperature profiles are generally steeper and cooler than the expected `super-heated' dust temperature in passive irradiated disks. The column density profiles are used to estimate icy pebble mass fluxes, which suggest that compact and extended disks may produce markedly distinct inner-disk exoplanet populations if local feeding mechanisms dominate their assembly.

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