Paolo Canofari | Searcharxiv

arXiv2025

Do Governments React to Public Debt Accumulation? A Cross-Country Analysis

Do governments adjust budgetary policy to rising public debt, precluding fiscal unsustainability? Using budget data for 52 industrial and emerging economies since 1990, we apply panel methods accounting for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneous fiscal conduct. We find that a primary-balance rule with tax-smoothing motives and responsiveness to debt has robust explanatory power in describing fiscal behavior. Controlling for temporary output, temporary spending, and the current account balance, a 10-percentage-point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio raises the long-run primary surplus-to-GDP ratio by 0.5 percentage points on average. Corrective adjustments hold across high- and low-debt countries and across industrial and emerging economies. Our results imply many governments pursue Ricardian policy designs, avoiding Ponzi-type financing.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Initiatives Based on the Psychology of Scarcity Can Increase Covid-19 Vaccinations

Background: Here we investigate whether releasing COVID-19 vaccines in limited quantities and at limited times boosted Italy's vaccination campaign in 2021. This strategy exploits insights from psychology and consumer marketing. Methods: We built an original dataset covering 200 days of vaccination data in Italy, including 'open day' events. Open-day events (in short: open days) are instances where COVID-19 vaccines were released in limited quantities and only for a specific day at a specified location (usually, a large pavilion or a public building). Our dependent variables are the number of total and first doses administered in proportion to the eligible population. Our key independent variable is the presence of open-day events in a given region on a specific day. We analyzed the data using regression with fixed effects for time and region. The analysis was robust to alternative model specifications. Findings: We find that when an open day event was organized, in proportion to the eligible population, there was an average 0.39-0.44 percentage point increase in total doses administered and a 0.30-0.33 percentage point increase in first doses administered. These figures correspond to an average increase of 10,455-11,796 in total doses administered and 8,043-8,847 in the first doses administered. Interpretation: Releasing vaccines in limited quantities and at limited times by organizing open-day events was associated with an increase in COVID-19 vaccinations in most Italian regions. These results call for wider adoption of vaccination strategies based on the limited release of vaccines for other infectious diseases or future pandemics.

econ.GN↗