arXiv subjects

Paolo Giudici

Publications and source records attributed to Paolo Giudici.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Measuring AI harms with multidimensional Lorenz Zonoids

While AI systems increasingly shape high-stakes societal domains, their governance is limited by the lack of risk management methods that operate on real harms, taking their severity, and not only their likelihood, into account. As a consequence, AI risk management models remain compliance-driven and provider-centric, offering limited insight into how harms are dangerous, and on what should be the priority of intervention. The problem is amplified by the nature of harm data which are typically ordinal and multidimensional. To solve the problem, and offer an effective risk assessment methodology, in this paper we propose to model harm data by means of Lorenz Zonoids and Gini indices. To this aim we propose to extend them in a multidimensional setting, and show how to practically calculate them for a real AI incident data repository, provided by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The empirical findings indicate that environmental, infrastructure, property, physical, and democracy-related harms attain the highest values under the two multidimensional Gini indices and therefore exhibit the strongest concentration in their joint direct, indirect, and inferred severity-frequency distributions. These concentration patterns may help identify categories that warrant closer examination when mitigation priorities are determined.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Personalized Causal Recourse: A Human-In-The-Loop Approach

Algorithmic recourse addresses the challenge of providing tailored recommendations to users affected by unfavorable machine learning decisions, in potentially high-stakes scenarios. Traditional approaches to recourse often rely on the closest counterfactual explanations or assume a priori knowledge of a user's causal structure, resulting in interventions that overlook individual contexts and specific feature interactions. To overcome these limitations, we study a human-in-the-loop framework that iteratively approximates the user's structural causal model through interactive queries via Bayesian inference before producing recourse recommendations. This framework exploits humans' feedback to improve the identification of causal effects, allowing personalized recourse that is plausible, cost-effective, and aligned with the actual causal dependencies of each user. As a proof of concept, we evaluate this framework through simulated human responses. Our simulations across linear and non-linear causal models show promising results, though challenges remain in capturing complex, non-linear structures, emphasizing the importance of accurate approximations and robust noise distribution modeling.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

I-SAFE: Wasserstein Coherence Metrics for Structural Auditing of Scientific AI Models

Deep learning models are increasingly used in scientific prediction tasks where strong benchmark performance is often interpreted as evidence of scientifically meaningful behavior. This interpretation is fragile, as models may exploit shortcut features, dataset-specific regularities, or distributional biases that are predictive on held-out data but not aligned with domain-relevant structure. To address this limitation, we introduce the \textsc{I-SAFE} (Interventional Secure, Accurate, Fair and Explainable) framework, a post-hoc distributional auditing framework for scientific AI models centered on the Wasserstein Coherence Metric (WCM). Given a trained black-box predictor and an external structural prior encoding domain knowledge about task-relevant input structure, \textsc{I-SAFE} evaluates raw model outputs under structurally guided perturbations of the input. The proposed audit measures output-distribution coherence through three complementary metrics: a Quantile-Based Metric (QBM) for location-level coherence, the WCM for ordinal coherence, and a translation-invariant WCM variant for shape coherence. We instantiate \textsc{I-SAFE} on drug--target interaction (DTI) prediction using the Davis kinase benchmark, KLIFS (Kinase--Ligand Interaction Fingerprints and Structures) binding-pocket annotations, and three sequence-based DTI models: DeepConvDTI, DeepDTA, and TAPB. Although the models operate in a comparable predictive regime, \textsc{I-SAFE} reveals substantially different distributional response profiles, a distinction invisible to accuracy-based evaluation. The framework is model-agnostic and applicable to any domain where inputs admit a structured decomposition and an external prior is available.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

SAFE Quantum Machine Learning with Variational Quantum Classifiers

We propose a variational quantum classifier operating on high dimensional deep representations via amplitude encoding, stabilized by a learnable classical pre encoding layer.By combining normalized amplitude embeddings with bounded quantum observables, the resulting model induces a structured and smooth hypothesis class with controlled sensitivity to input variations. Model reliability is assessed using SAFE-AI metrics derived from the Cramer von Mises divergence, enabling consistent evaluation across accuracy, robustness, and explainability dimensions. Empirical results show that the proposed quantum model provides competitive predictive performance compared with strong classical baselines while exhibiting a more balanced SAFE reliability profile, with improved robustness to noise and stability under structured feature removal. These findings suggest that variational quantum circuits offer a principled mechanism for stability oriented SAFE learning in safety critical settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

ISAAC: Auditing Causal Reasoning in Deep Models for Drug-Target Interaction

Deep learning models for drug--target interaction (DTI) prediction often achieve strong benchmark performance without necessarily relying on mechanistically meaningful molecular features, a limitation that standard accuracy-based evaluation cannot detect. We introduce ISAAC (Intervention-based Structural Auditing Approach for Causal Reasoning), a post-hoc framework that evaluates prior-relative structural sensitivity by probing frozen models through matched mechanistic and spurious input-level interventions, independently of predictive accuracy. Applied to three sequence-based DTI architectures on the Davis benchmark, ISAAC reveals approximately 25\% relative differences in reasoning scores across models with comparable AUROC (within around 3\%), stable across training and intervention seeds and two distinct perturbation operators. These discrepancies, undetectable under conventional accuracy metrics, motivate the use of post-hoc structural auditing as a complement to standard performance evaluation in scientific machine learning for molecular modeling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Explainable cluster analysis: a bagging approach

A major limitation of clustering approaches is their lack of explainability: methods rarely provide insight into which features drive the grouping of similar observations. To address this limitation, we propose an ensemble-based clustering framework that integrates bagging and feature dropout to generate feature importance scores, in analogy with feature importance mechanisms in supervised random forests. By leveraging multiple bootstrap resampling schemes and aggregating the resulting partitions, the method improves stability and robustness of the cluster definition, particularly in small-sample or noisy settings. Feature importance is assessed through an information-theoretic approach: at each step, the mutual information between each feature and the estimated cluster labels is computed and weighted by a measure of clustering validity to emphasize well-formed partitions, before being aggregated into a final score. The method outputs both a consensus partition and a corresponding measure of feature importance, enabling a unified interpretation of clustering structure and variable relevance. Its effectiveness is demonstrated on multiple simulated and real-world datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

On Rank Graduation Metrics for High Dimensional Ordinal Data

Evaluating the reliability of machine learning classifications remains a fundamental challenge in Artificial Intelligence (AI), particularly when the target variable is multidimensional. Classification variables can be expressed by means of a categorical scale which, at best, is ordinal. Because ordinal data lack a natural metric structure in their underlying space, most conventional distance measures aimed at assessing the accuracy of machine learning classifications cannot be directly or meaningfully applied. In this paper, we develop a mathematical framework for comparing ordinal data based on a family of Rank Graduation $(\mathrm{RGX}_p)$ \emph{metrics}. We demonstrate that these metrics can quantify the proportion of variability of the response explained by the predictions, in a similar manner as the predictive $R^2$ for continuous response variables. After establishing theoretical connections between the $\mathrm{RGX}_p$ family and other prominent metrics in AI, we conduct extensive experiments across diverse datasets and learning tasks to evaluate their empirical performance. The results underscore the versatility, interpretability, and robustness of the $\mathrm{RGX}_p$ metrics as a principled foundation for developing trustworthy and SAFE AI systems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

A Multiclass ROC Curve

This paper introduces a novel methodology for constructing multiclass ROC curves using the multidimensional Gini index. The proposed methodology leverages the established relationship between the Gini coefficient and the ROC Curve and extends it to multiclass settings through the multidimensional Gini index. The framework is validated by means of two comprehensive case studies in health care and finance. The paper provides a theoretically grounded solution to multiclass performance evaluation, particularly valuable for imbalanced datasets, for which a prudential assessment should take precedence over class frequency considerations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

AI Harmonics: a human-centric and harms severity-adaptive AI risk assessment framework

The absolute dominance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) introduces unprecedented societal harms and risks. Existing AI risk assessment models focus on internal compliance, often neglecting diverse stakeholder perspectives and real-world consequences. We propose a paradigm shift to a human-centric, harm-severity adaptive approach grounded in empirical incident data. We present AI Harmonics, which includes a novel AI harm assessment metric (AIH) that leverages ordinal severity data to capture relative impact without requiring precise numerical estimates. AI Harmonics combines a robust, generalized methodology with a data-driven, stakeholder-aware framework for exploring and prioritizing AI harms. Experiments on annotated incident data confirm that political and physical harms exhibit the highest concentration and thus warrant urgent mitigation: political harms erode public trust, while physical harms pose serious, even life-threatening risks, underscoring the real-world relevance of our approach. Finally, we demonstrate that AI Harmonics consistently identifies uneven harm distributions, enabling policymakers and organizations to target their mitigation efforts effectively.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

From Kinetic Theory to AI: a Rediscovery of High-Dimensional Divergences and Their Properties

Selecting an appropriate divergence measure is a critical aspect of machine learning, as it directly impacts model performance. Among the most widely used, we find the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, originally introduced in kinetic theory as a measure of relative entropy between probability distributions. Just as in machine learning, the ability to quantify the proximity of probability distributions plays a central role in kinetic theory. In this paper, we present a comparative review of divergence measures rooted in kinetic theory, highlighting their theoretical foundations and exploring their potential applications in machine learning and artificial intelligence.

math-ph↗

arXiv2025

Building crypto portfolios with agentic AI

The rapid growth of crypto markets has opened new opportunities for investors, but at the same time exposed them to high volatility. To address the challenge of managing dynamic portfolios in such an environment, this paper presents a practical application of a multi-agent system designed to autonomously construct and evaluate crypto-asset allocations. Using data on daily frequencies of the ten most capitalized cryptocurrencies from 2020 to 2025, we compare two automated investment strategies. These are a static equal weighting strategy and a rolling-window optimization strategy, both implemented to maximize the evaluation metrics of the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), such as Expected Return, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, while minimizing volatility. Each step of the process is handled by dedicated agents, integrated through a collaborative architecture in Crew AI. The results show that the dynamic optimization strategy achieves significantly better performance in terms of risk-adjusted returns, both in-sample and out-of-sample. This highlights the benefits of adaptive techniques in portfolio management, particularly in volatile markets such as cryptocurrency markets. The following methodology proposed also demonstrates how multi-agent systems can provide scalable, auditable, and flexible solutions in financial automation.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2025

Group Shapley with Robust Significance Testing and Its Application to Bond Recovery Rate Prediction

We propose Group Shapley, a metric that extends the classical individual-level Shapley value framework to evaluate the importance of feature groups, addressing the structured nature of predictors commonly found in business and economic data. More importantly, we develop a significance testing procedure based on a three-cumulant chi-square approximation and establish the asymptotic properties of the test statistics for Group Shapley values. Our approach can effectively handle challenging scenarios, including sparse or skewed distributions and small sample sizes, outperforming alternative tests such as the Wald test. Simulations confirm that the proposed test maintains robust empirical size and demonstrates enhanced power under diverse conditions. To illustrate the method's practical relevance in advancing Explainable AI, we apply our framework to bond recovery rate predictions using a global dataset (1996-2023) comprising 2,094 observations and 98 features, grouped into 16 subgroups and five broader categories: bond characteristics, firm fundamentals, industry-specific factors, market-related variables, and macroeconomic indicators. Our results identify the market-related variables group as the most influential. Furthermore, Lorenz curves and Gini indices reveal that Group Shapley assigns feature importance more equitably compared to individual Shapley values.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

How to measure multidimensional variation?

The coefficient of variation, which measures the variability of a distribution from its mean, is not uniquely defined in the multidimensional case, and so is the multidimensional Gini index, which measures the inequality of a distribution in terms of the mean differences among its observations. In this paper, we connect these two notions of sparsity, and propose a multidimensional coefficient of variation based on a multidimensional Gini index. We demonstrate that the proposed coefficient possesses the properties of the univariate coefficient of variation. We also show its connection with the Voinov-Nikulin coefficient of variation, and compare it with the other multivariate coefficients available in the literature.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

A Collaborative, Human-Centred Taxonomy of AI, Algorithmic, and Automation Harms

This paper introduces a collaborative, human-centred taxonomy of AI, algorithmic and automation harms. We argue that existing taxonomies, while valuable, can be narrow, unclear, typically cater to practitioners and government, and often overlook the needs of the wider public. Drawing on existing taxonomies and a large repository of documented incidents, we propose a taxonomy that is clear and understandable to a broad set of audiences, as well as being flexible, extensible, and interoperable. Through iterative refinement with topic experts and crowdsourced annotation testing, we propose a taxonomy that can serve as a powerful tool for civil society organisations, educators, policymakers, product teams and the general public. By fostering a greater understanding of the real-world harms of AI and related technologies, we aim to increase understanding, empower NGOs and individuals to identify and report violations, inform policy discussions, and encourage responsible technology development and deployment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Multivariate Gini-type discrepancies

Measuring distances in a multidimensional setting is a challenging problem, which appears in many fields of science and engineering. In this paper, to measure the distance between two multivariate distributions, we introduce a new measure of discrepancy which is scale invariant and which, in the case of two independent copies of the same distribution, and after normalization, coincides with the scaling invariant multidimensional version of the Gini index recently proposed in [34]. A byproduct of the analysis is an easy-to-handle discrepancy metric, obtained by application of the theory to a pair of Gaussian multidimensional densities. The obtained metric does improve the standard metrics, based on the mean squared error, as it is scale invariant. The importance of this theoretical finding is illustrated by means of a real problem that concerns measuring the importance of Environmental, Social and Governance factors for the growth of small and medium enterprises.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Extending the Gini Index to Higher Dimensions via Whitening Processes

Measuring the degree of inequality expressed by a multivariate statistical distribution is a challenging problem, which appears in many fields of science and engineering. In this paper, we propose to extend the well known univariate Gini coefficient to multivariate distributions, by maintaining most of its properties. Our extension is based on the application of whitening processes that possess the property of scale stability.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Properties of the reconciled distributions for Gaussian and count forecasts

Reconciliation enforces coherence between hierarchical forecasts, in order to satisfy a set of linear constraints. While most works focus on the reconciliation of the point forecasts, we consider probabilistic reconciliation and we analyze the properties of the distributions reconciled via conditioning. We provide a formal analysis of the variance of the reconciled distribution, treating separately the case of Gaussian forecasts and count forecasts. We also study the reconciled upper mean in the case of 1-level hierarchies; also in this case we analyze separately the case of Gaussian forecasts and count forecasts. We then show experiments on the reconciliation of intermittent time series related to the count of extreme market events. The experiments confirm our theoretical results and show that reconciliation largely improves the performance of probabilistic forecasting.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Measuring multidimensional inequality: a new proposal based on the Fourier transform

Inequality measures are quantitative measures that take values in the unit interval, with a zero value characterizing perfect equality. Although originally proposed to measure economic inequalities, they can be applied to several other situations, in which one is interested in the mutual variability between a set of observations, rather than in their deviations from the mean. While unidimensional measures of inequality, such as the Gini index, are widely known and employed, multidimensional measures, such as Lorenz Zonoids, are difficult to interpret and computationally expensive and, for these reasons, are not much well known. To overcome the problem, in this paper we propose a new scaling invariant multidimensional inequality index, based on the Fourier transform, which exhibits a number of interesting properties, and whose application to the multidimensional case is rather straightforward to calculate and interpret.

physics.soc-ph↗