arXiv subjects

Paolo Santi

Publications and source records attributed to Paolo Santi.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Cybernetic Cities: Designing and controlling adaptive and robust urban systems

Cities are changing constantly. All urban systems face different conditions from day to day. Even when averaged regularities can be found, urban systems will be more efficient if they can adapt to changes at the same temporal scales at which these occur. Still, the functionality of urban systems must be robust to changes, either caused by adaptation or by other factors. Technology can assist humans in designing and regulating this adaptation and robustness. To achieve this, we propose a description of cities as cybernetic systems. We identify three main components: information, algorithms, and agents, which we illustrate with current and future examples. The implications of cybernetic cities are manifold, with direct impacts on mobility, sustainability, resilience, governance, and society. Still, the potential of a cybernetic perspective on cities will not depend so much on technology as on how we use it.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2022

Crowdsourcing Bridge Vital Signs with Smartphone Vehicle Trips

A key challenge in monitoring and managing the structural health of bridges is the high-cost associated with specialized sensor networks. In the past decade, researchers predicted that cheap, ubiquitous mobile sensors would revolutionize infrastructure maintenance; yet many of the challenges in extracting useful information in the field with sufficient precision remain unsolved. Herein it is shown that critical physical properties, e.g., modal frequencies, of real bridges can be determined accurately from everyday vehicle trip data. The primary study collects smartphone data from controlled field experiments and "uncontrolled" UBER rides on a long-span suspension bridge in the USA and develops an analytical method to accurately recover modal properties. The method is successfully applied to "partially-controlled" crowdsourced data collected on a short-span highway bridge in Italy. This study verifies that pre-existing mobile sensor data sets, originally captured for other purposes, e.g., commercial use, public works, etc., can contain important structural information and therefore can be repurposed for large-scale infrastructure monitoring. A supplementary analysis projects that the inclusion of crowdsourced data in a maintenance plan for a new bridge can add over fourteen years of service (30% increase) without additional costs. These results suggest that massive and inexpensive datasets collected by smartphones could play an important role in monitoring the health of existing transportation infrastructure.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

Vector-based Pedestrian Navigation in Cities

How do pedestrians choose their paths within city street networks? Researchers have tried to shed light on this matter through strictly controlled experiments, but an ultimate answer based on real-world mobility data is still lacking. Here, we analyze salient features of human path planning through a statistical analysis of a massive dataset of GPS traces, which reveals that (1) people increasingly deviate from the shortest path when the distance between origin and destination increases, and (2) chosen paths are statistically different when origin and destination are swapped. We posit that direction to goal is a main driver of path planning and develop a vector-based navigation model that is a statistically better predictor of human paths than a model based on minimizing distance with stochastic effects. Our findings generalize across two major US cities with different street networks, hinting to the fact that vector-based navigation might be a universal property of human path planning.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2021

Estimating the potential for shared autonomous scooters

Recent technological developments have shown significant potential for transforming urban mobility. Considering first- and last-mile travel and short trips, the rapid adoption of dockless bike-share systems showed the possibility of disruptive change, while simultaneously presenting new challenges, such as fleet management or the use of public spaces. In this paper, we evaluate the operational characteristics of a new class of shared vehicles that are being actively developed in the industry: scooters with self-repositioning capabilities. We do this by adapting the methodology of shareability networks to a large-scale dataset of dockless bike-share usage, giving us estimates of ideal fleet size under varying assumptions of fleet operations. We show that the availability of self-repositioning capabilities can help achieve up to 10 times higher utilization of vehicles than possible in current bike-share systems. We show that actual benefits will highly depend on the availability of dedicated infrastructure, a key issue for scooter and bicycle use. Based on our results, we envision that technological advances can present an opportunity to rethink urban infrastructures and how transportation can be effectively organized in cities.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

ConiVAT: Cluster Tendency Assessment and Clustering with Partial Background Knowledge

The VAT method is a visual technique for determining the potential cluster structure and the possible number of clusters in numerical data. Its improved version, iVAT, uses a path-based distance transform to improve the effectiveness of VAT for "tough" cases. Both VAT and iVAT have also been used in conjunction with a single-linkage(SL) hierarchical clustering algorithm. However, they are sensitive to noise and bridge points between clusters in the dataset, and consequently, the corresponding VAT/iVAT images are often in-conclusive for such cases. In this paper, we propose a constraint-based version of iVAT, which we call ConiVAT, that makes use of background knowledge in the form of constraints, to improve VAT/iVAT for challenging and complex datasets. ConiVAT uses the input constraints to learn the underlying similarity metric and builds a minimum transitive dissimilarity matrix, before applying VAT to it. We demonstrate ConiVAT approach to visual assessment and single linkage clustering on nine datasets to show that, it improves the quality of iVAT images for complex datasets, and it also overcomes the limitation of SL clustering with VAT/iVAT due to "noisy" bridges between clusters. Extensive experiment results on nine datasets suggest that ConiVAT outperforms the other three semi-supervised clustering algorithms in terms of improved clustering accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Identifying synergies in private and public transportation

In this paper, we explore existing synergies between private and public transportation as provided by taxi and bus services on the level of individual trips. While these modes are typically separated for economic reasons, in a future with shared Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) providing cheap and efficient transportation services, such distinctions will blur. Consequently, optimization based on real-time data will allow exploiting parallels in demand in a dynamic way, such as the proposed approach of the current work. New operational and pricing strategies will then evolve, providing service in a more efficient way and utilizing a dynamic landscape of urban transportation. In the current work, we evaluate existing parallels between individual bus and taxi trips in two Asian cities and show how exploiting these synergies could lead to an increase in transportation service quality.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Urban sensing as a random search process

We study a new random search process: the \textit{taxi-drive}. The motivation for this process comes from urban sensing, in which sensors are mounted on moving vehicles such as taxis, allowing urban environments to be opportunistically monitored. Inspired by the movements of real taxis, the taxi-drive is composed of both random and regular parts; passengers are brought to randomly chosen locations via deterministic (i.e. shortest paths) routes. We show through a numerical study that this hybrid motion endows the taxi-drive with advantageous spreading properties. In particular, on certain graph topologies it offers reduced cover times compared to persistent random walks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

The darkweb: a social network anomaly

We analyse the darkweb and find its structure is unusual. For example, $ \sim 87 \%$ of darkweb sites \emph{never} link to another site. To call the darkweb a "web" is thus a misnomer -- it's better described as a set of largely isolated dark silos. As we show through a detailed comparison to the World Wide Web (www), this siloed structure is highly dissimilar to other social networks and indicates the social behavior of darkweb users is much different to that of www users. We show a generalized preferential attachment model can partially explain the strange topology of the darkweb, but an understanding of the anomalous behavior of its users remains out of reach. Our results are relevant to network scientists, social scientists, and other researchers interested in the social interactions of large numbers of agents.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Addressing the "minimum parking" problem for on-demand mobility

Parking infrastructure is pervasive and occupies large swaths of land in cities. However, on-demand (OD) mobility -- such as commercial services Uber, Grab or Didi -- has started reducing parking needs in urban areas around the world. This trend is expected to grow significantly with the advent of autonomous driving, which might render on-demand mobility predominant. Recent studies have started looking at expected parking reductions with on-demand mobility, but a systematic framework is still lacking. In this paper, we apply a data-driven methodology based on shareability networks to address what we call the "minimum parking" problem: what is the minimum parking infrastructure needed in a city for given on-demand mobility needs? While solving the problem, we also identify a critical tradeoff between two public policy goals: less parking means increased vehicle travel from deadheading between trips. By applying our methodology to the city of Singapore we discover that parking infrastructure reduction of up to 86% is possible, but at the expense of a 24% increase in traffic measured as vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT). However, a more modest 57% reduction in parking is achievable with only a 1.3% increase in VKT. We find that the tradeoff between parking and traffic obeys an inverse exponential law which is invariant with the size of the vehicle fleet, leading to a simple methodology to estimate aggregate parking demand in a city. Finally, we analyze parking requirements due to passenger pick-ups and show that increasing convenience produces a substantial increase in parking for passenger pickup/dropoff. The above mathematical findings can inform policy-makers, mobility operators, and society at large on the tradeoffs required in the transition towards pervasive on-demand mobility.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

The spectral dimension of human mobility

Human mobility patterns are surprisingly structured. In spite of many hard to model factors, such as climate, culture, and socioeconomic opportunities, aggregate migration rates obey a universal, parameter-free, `radiation' model. Recent work has further shown that the detailed spectral decomposition of these flows -- defined as the number of individuals that visit a given location with frequency $f$ from a distance $r$ away -- also obeys simple rules, namely, scaling as a universal inverse square law in the combination, $rf$. However, this surprising regularity, derived on general grounds, has not been explained through microscopic mechanisms of individual behavior. Here we confirm this by analyzing large-scale cell phone datasets from three distinct regions and show that a direct consequence of this scaling law is that the average `travel energy' spent by visitors to a given location is constant across space, a finding reminiscent of the well-known travel budget hypothesis of human movement. The attractivity of different locations, which we define by the total number of visits to that location, also admits non-trivial, spatially-clustered structure. The observed pattern is consistent with the well-known central place theory in urban geography, as well as with the notion of Weber optimality in spatial economy, hinting to a collective human capacity of optimizing recurrent movements. We close by proposing a simple, microscopic human mobility model which simultaneously captures all our empirical findings. Our results have relevance for transportation, urban planning, geography, and other disciplines in which a deeper understanding of aggregate human mobility is key.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Modeling vehicular mobility patterns using recurrent neural networks

Data on vehicular mobility patterns have proved useful in many contexts. Yet generative models which accurately reproduce these mobility patterns are scarce. Here, we explore if recurrent neural networks can cure this scarcity. By training networks on taxi from NYC and Shanghai, and personal cars from Michigan, we show most aspects of the mobility patterns can be reproduced. In particular, the spatial distributions of the street segments usage is well captured by the recurrent neural networks, which other models struggle to do.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Quantifying the sensing power of crowd-sourced vehicle fleets

Sensors can measure air quality, traffic congestion, and other aspects of urban environments. The fine-grained diagnostic information they provide could help urban managers to monitor a city's health. Recently, a `drive-by' paradigm has been proposed in which sensors are deployed on third-party vehicles, enabling wide coverage at low cost} Research on drive-by sensing has mostly focused on sensor engineering, but a key question remains unexplored: How many vehicles would be required to adequately scan a city? Here, we address this question by analyzing the sensing power of a taxi fleet. Taxis, being numerous in cities and typically equipped with some sensing technology (e.g. GPS), are natural hosts for the sensors. Our strategy is to view drive-by sensing as a spreading process, in which the area of sensed terrain expands as sensor-equipped taxis diffuse through a city's streets. In tandem with a simple model for the movements of the taxis, this analogy lets us analytically determine the fraction of a city's street network sensed by a fleet of taxis during a day. Our results agree with taxi data obtained from nine major cities, and reveal that a remarkably small number of taxis can scan a large number of streets. This finding appears to be universal, indicating its applicability to cities beyond those analyzed here. Moreover, because taxi motions combine randomness and regularity (passengers' destinations being random, but the routes to them being deterministic), the spreading properties of taxi fleets are unusual; in stark contrast to random walks, the stationary densities of our taxi model obey Zipf's law, consistent with the empirical taxi data. Our results have direct utility for town councilors, smart-city designers, and other urban decision makers.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Estimating savings in parking demand using shared vehicles for home-work commuting

The increasing availability and adoption of shared vehicles as an alternative to personally-owned cars presents ample opportunities for achieving more efficient transportation in cities. With private cars spending on the average over 95\% of the time parked, one of the possible benefits of shared mobility is the reduced need for parking space. While widely discussed, a systematic quantification of these benefits as a function of mobility demand and sharing models is still mostly lacking in the literature. As a first step in this direction, this paper focuses on a type of private mobility which, although specific, is a major contributor to traffic congestion and parking needs, namely, home-work commuting. We develop a data-driven methodology for estimating commuter parking needs in different shared mobility models, including a model where self-driving vehicles are used to partially compensate flow imbalance typical of commuting, and further reduce parking infrastructure at the expense of increased traveled kilometers. We consider the city of Singapore as a case study, and produce very encouraging results showing that the gradual transition to shared mobility models will bring tangible reductions in parking infrastructure. In the future-looking, self-driving vehicle scenario, our analysis suggests that up to 50\% reduction in parking needs can be achieved at the expense of increasing total traveled kilometers of less than 2\%.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2017

Driving Behavior Analysis through CAN Bus Data in an Uncontrolled Environment

Cars can nowadays record several thousands of signals through the CAN bus technology and potentially provide real-time information on the car, the driver and the surrounding environment. This paper proposes a new method for the analysis and classification of driver behavior using a selected subset of CAN bus signals, specifically gas pedal position, brake pedal pressure, steering wheel angle, steering wheel momentum, velocity, RPM, frontal and lateral acceleration. Data has been collected in a completely uncontrolled experiment, where 64 people drove 10 cars for or a total of over 2000 driving trips without any type of pre-determined driving instruction on a wide variety of road scenarios. We propose an unsupervised learning technique that clusters drivers in different groups, and offers a validation method to test the robustness of clustering in a wide range of experimental settings. The minimal amount of data needed to preserve robust driver clustering is also computed. The presented study provides a new methodology for near-real-time classification of driver behavior in uncontrolled environments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Scaling Law of Urban Ride Sharing

Sharing rides could drastically improve the efficiency of car and taxi transportation. Unleashing such potential, however, requires understanding how urban parameters affect the fraction of individual trips that can be shared, a quantity that we call shareability. Using data on millions of taxi trips in New York City, San Francisco, Singapore, and Vienna, we compute the shareability curves for each city, and find that a natural rescaling collapses them onto a single, universal curve. We explain this scaling law theoretically with a simple model that predicts the potential for ride sharing in any city, using a few basic urban quantities and no adjustable parameters. Accurate extrapolations of this type will help planners, transportation companies, and society at large to shape a sustainable path for urban growth.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Optimizing the Deployment of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations Using Pervasive Mobility Data

With recent advances in battery technology and the resulting decrease in the charging times, public charging stations are becoming a viable option for Electric Vehicle (EV) drivers. Concurrently, wide-spread use of location-tracking devices in mobile phones and wearable devices makes it possible to track individual-level human movements to an unprecedented spatial and temporal grain. Motivated by these developments, we propose a novel methodology to perform data-driven optimization of EV charging stations location. We formulate the problem as a discrete optimization problem on a geographical grid, with the objective of covering the entire demand region while minimizing a measure of drivers' discomfort. Since optimally solving the problem is computationally infeasible, we present computationally efficient, near-optimal solutions based on greedy and genetic algorithms. We then apply the proposed methodology to optimize EV charging stations location in the city of Boston, starting from a massive cellular phone data sets covering 1 million users over 4 months. Results show that genetic algorithm based optimization provides the best solutions in terms of drivers' discomfort and the number of charging stations required, which are both reduced about 10 percent as compared to a randomized solution. We further investigate robustness of the proposed data-driven methodology, showing that, building upon well-known regularity of aggregate human mobility patterns, the near-optimal solution computed using single day movements preserves its properties also in later months. When collectively considered, the results presented in this paper clearly indicate the potential of data-driven approaches for optimally locating public charging facilities at the urban scale.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2015

Supersampling and network reconstruction of urban mobility

Understanding human mobility is of vital importance for urban planning, epidemiology, and many other fields that aim to draw policies from the activities of humans in space. Despite recent availability of large scale data sets related to human mobility such as GPS traces, mobile phone data, etc., it is still true that such data sets represent a subsample of the population of interest, and then might give an incomplete picture of the entire population in question. Notwithstanding the abundant usage of such inherently limited data sets, the impact of sampling biases on mobility patterns is unclear -- we do not have methods available to reliably infer mobility information from a limited data set. Here, we investigate the effects of sampling using a data set of millions of taxi movements in New York City. On the one hand, we show that mobility patterns are highly stable once an appropriate simple rescaling is applied to the data, implying negligible loss of information due to subsampling over long time scales. On the other hand, contrasting an appropriate null model on the weighted network of vehicle flows reveals distinctive features which need to be accounted for. Accordingly, we formulate a "supersampling" methodology which allows us to reliably extrapolate mobility data from a reduced sample and propose a number of network-based metrics to reliably assess its quality (and that of other human mobility models). Our approach provides a well founded way to exploit temporal patterns to save effort in recording mobility data, and opens the possibility to scale up data from limited records when information on the full system is needed.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Quantifying the benefits of vehicle pooling with shareability networks

Taxi services are a vital part of urban transportation, and a considerable contributor to traffic congestion and air pollution causing substantial adverse effects on human health. Sharing taxi trips is a possible way of reducing the negative impact of taxi services on cities, but this comes at the expense of passenger discomfort quantifiable in terms of a longer travel time. Due to computational challenges, taxi sharing has traditionally been approached on small scales, such as within airport perimeters, or with dynamical ad-hoc heuristics. However, a mathematical framework for the systematic understanding of the tradeoff between collective benefits of sharing and individual passenger discomfort is lacking. Here we introduce the notion of shareability network which allows us to model the collective benefits of sharing as a function of passenger inconvenience, and to efficiently compute optimal sharing strategies on massive datasets. We apply this framework to a dataset of millions of taxi trips taken in New York City, showing that with increasing but still relatively low passenger discomfort, cumulative trip length can be cut by 40% or more. This benefit comes with reductions in service cost, emissions, and with split fares, hinting towards a wide passenger acceptance of such a shared service. Simulation of a realistic online system demonstrates the feasibility of a shareable taxi service in New York City. Shareability as a function of trip density saturates fast, suggesting effectiveness of the taxi sharing system also in cities with much sparser taxi fleets or when willingness to share is low.

physics.soc-ph↗