arXiv subjects

Paolo Turrini

Publications and source records attributed to Paolo Turrini.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Convergence of Replicator Dynamics in the Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma with Restarts

We investigate a population of self-interested agents playing a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma under the trigger-restart mechanism. Under such a mechanism, agents play a sequence of symmetric games with their partner, and restart the interaction if their actions disagree. Our work focuses on the convergence of replicator dynamics in a well-mixed population of agents, where the emergence of cooperation is challenged by the individual incentive for exploitation. Formulating the corresponding parametrised normal-form game, with agents each adopting a length-m strategy sequence, we show that increasing the strategy length enables cooperation to emerge and stabilise. We provide exact convergence guarantees for restricted strategy lengths and, in the general payoff configuration, provide the necessary parametric conditions for the stability of cooperative strategies. By deriving an exact formula for the number of stable sequences, we find structural properties necessary for stability, as agents must learn to initially defect - the so-called "hazing period" - before cooperating indefinitely. Our analysis shows that, while optimal cooperative sequences exist, agents favour less-optimal sequences with a longer hazing period, which possess larger basins of attraction.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

The Dynamics of Policy Gradient in Social Dilemmas with Partner Selection

In social dilemmas self-interested learning agents face the choice between the societal benefit of cooperation and the immediate reward of defection. Significant evidence exists on the benefits of assortment mechanisms such as partner selection for the emergence of cooperation, but this is largely available through agent-based simulations. In this paper, we provide an analytical solution to the problem, studying the policy-gradient dynamics in a multi-agent environment with partner selection. We show how partner selection changes the opponent distribution and hence the reward landscape, and prove this promotes cooperation under simple rules known from the literature. In particular, we find that population variance is a necessary condition for cooperation to emerge. Using a two-dimensional Wiener process, we extend the dynamics to capture the stochastic effects of partner selection and the resulting opponent distribution. We derive a sufficient condition for the population to be cooperation-promoting and prove the existence of a stationary distribution. Simulations confirm that the stochastic model accurately captures the policy-gradient dynamics and clarifies how the learning rate affects the emergence of cooperation.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

On the Limits of PAC Learning of Networks from Opinion Dynamics

Agents in social networks with threshold-based dynamics change opinions when influenced by sufficiently many peers. Existing literature typically assumes that the network structure and dynamics are fully known, which is often unrealistic. In this work, we ask how to learn a network structure from samples of the agents' synchronous opinion updates. Firstly, if the opinion dynamics follow a threshold rule in which a fixed number of influencers prevent opinion change (e.g., unanimity and quasi-unanimity), we provide an efficient PAC learning algorithm provided that the number of influencers per agent is bounded. Secondly, under standard computational complexity assumptions, we prove that if agents' opinions follow the majority of their influencers, then there is no efficient PAC learning algorithm. We propose a polynomial-time heuristic that successfully learns consistent networks in over $98\%$ of our simulations on random graphs, with no failures for some specified conditions on the numbers of agents and opinion diffusion examples.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Trust or Check? Understanding the (Evolutionary) Dynamics of User Trust in AI Systems

As the capabilities and adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems grow, trust in these AI systems is an increasingly urgent concern. Much research has focused on models of AI governance and has primarily examined incentives for safe development and effective regulation. Hence they typically represented users trust as a one-shot adoption choice rather than as a dynamic, evolving process shaped by repeated interactions. We instead model trust as the dynamic choice of reduced monitoring in a repeated, asymmetric interaction between users and AI developers, where checking developers' behaviour is costly. Using evolutionary game theory, we study how users' strategies of trust and developers' strategies of providing safe (compliant) or unsafe (non-compliant) AI co-evolve under different levels of monitoring cost and institutional regimes. We conduct the analysis on both imitation-based and learning-based perspectives, with the stochastic finite-population dynamics, the infinite-population replicator analysis and the reinforcement learning analysis. We find three robust long-run regimes: no adoption by users while developers provide unsafe AI, unsafe but widely adopted systems, and safe systems that are widely adopted. Only the last is desirable, and it arises when penalties for unsafe behaviour exceed the extra cost of safety and users can still afford to monitor at least occasionally. Our results formally support governance proposals that emphasise transparency, low-cost monitoring, and meaningful sanctions, and they show that neither regulation alone nor blind user trust is sufficient to prevent the drift towards unsafe or low-adoption outcomes.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Computing Equilibrium Nominations in Presidential Elections

We study strategic candidate nomination by parties in elections decided by Plurality voting. Each party selects a nominee before the election, and the winner is chosen from the nominated candidates based on the voters' preferences. We introduce a new restriction on these preferences, which we call party-aligned single-peakedness: all voters agree on a common ordering of the parties along an ideological axis, but may differ in their perceptions of the positions of individual candidates within each party. The preferences of each voter are single-peaked with respect to their own axis over the candidates, which is consistent with the global ordering of the parties. We present a polynomial-time algorithm for recognizing whether a preference profile satisfies party-aligned single-peakedness. In this domain, we give polynomial-time algorithms for deciding whether a given party can become the winner under some (or all) nominations, and whether this can occur in some pure Nash equilibrium. We also prove a tight result about the guaranteed existence of pure strategy Nash equilibria for elections with up to three parties for single-peaked and party-aligned single-peaked preference profiles.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

Measuring the co-evolution of online engagement with (mis)information and its visibility at scale

Online attention is an increasingly valuable resource in the digital age, with extraordinary events such as the COVID-19 pandemic fuelling fierce competition around it. As misinformation pervades online platforms, users seek credible sources, while news outlets compete to attract and retain their attention. Here we measure the co-evolution of online ``engagement'' with (mis)information and its ``visibility'', where engagement corresponds to user interactions on social media, and visibility to fluctuations in user follower counts. Using over 100 million COVID-related retweets across 3 years, we analyse how user interactions and follower dynamics differ for factual, misleading and uncertain content. We observe that during major events (e.g., vaccine rollouts), users spreading factual content see rapid follower gain spikes, whereas those sharing misleading content tend to sustain faster growth outside of these high-attention periods. We introduce two scalable modelling frameworks (simple contagion and biased convergence) that reproduce many observed differing follower growth rates using temporal retweet network dynamics, providing evidence that content visibility co-evolves with user engagement. Our modelling lends itself to studying other large-scale events where online attention is at stake, such as climate and political debates.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Modelling and Predicting Online Vaccination Views using Bow-tie Decomposition

Social media has become increasingly important in shaping public vaccination views, especially since the COVID-19 outbreak. This paper uses bow-tie structure to analyse a temporal dataset of directed online social networks that represent the information exchange among anti-vaccination, pro-vaccination, and neutral Facebook pages. Bow-tie structure decomposes a network into seven components, with two components "SCC" and "OUT" emphasised in this paper: SCC is the largest strongly connected component, acting as an "information magnifier", and OUT contains all nodes with a directed path from a node in SCC, acting as an "information creator". We consistently observe statistically significant bow-tie structures with different dominant components for each vaccination group over time. In particular, the anti-vaccination group has a large OUT, and the pro-vaccination group has a large SCC. We further investigate changes in opinions over time, as measured by fan count variations, using agent-based simulations and machine learning models. Across both methods, accounting for bow-tie decomposition better reflects information flow differences among vaccination groups and improves our opinion dynamics prediction results. The modelling frameworks we consider can be applied to any multi-stance temporal network and could form a basis for exploring opinion dynamics using bow-tie structure in a wide range of applications.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Enabling the Digital Democratic Revival: A Research Program for Digital Democracy

This white paper outlines a long-term scientific vision for the development of digital-democracy technology. We contend that if digital democracy is to meet the ambition of enabling a participatory renewal in our societies, then a comprehensive multi-methods research effort is required that could, over the years, support its development in a democratically principled, empirically and computationally informed way. The paper is co-authored by an international and interdisciplinary team of researchers and arose from the Lorentz Center Workshop on ``Algorithmic Technology for Democracy'' (Leiden, October 2022).

cs.CY↗

arXiv2023

Safe Opponent Exploitation For Epsilon Equilibrium Strategies

In safe opponent exploitation players hope to exploit their opponents' potentially sub-optimal strategies while guaranteeing at least the value of the game in expectation for themselves. Safe opponent exploitation algorithms have been successfully applied to small instances of two-player zero-sum imperfect information games, where Nash equilibrium strategies are typically known in advance. Current methods available to compute these strategies are however not scalable to desirable large domains of imperfect information such as No-Limit Texas Hold 'em (NLHE) poker, where successful agents rely on game abstractions in order to compute an equilibrium strategy approximation. This paper will extend the concept of safe opponent exploitation by introducing prime-safe opponent exploitation, in which we redefine the value of the game of a player to be the worst-case payoff their strategy could be susceptible to. This allows weaker epsilon equilibrium strategies to benefit from utilising a form of opponent exploitation with our revised value of the game, still allowing for a practical game-theoretical guaranteed lower-bound. We demonstrate the empirical advantages of our generalisation when applied to the main safe opponent exploitation algorithms.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

Quantifying Consistency and Information Loss for Causal Abstraction Learning

Structural causal models provide a formalism to express causal relations between variables of interest. Models and variables can represent a system at different levels of abstraction, whereby relations may be coarsened and refined according to the need of a modeller. However, switching between different levels of abstraction requires evaluating a trade-off between the consistency and the information loss among different models. In this paper we introduce a family of interventional measures that an agent may use to evaluate such a trade-off. We consider four measures suited for different tasks, analyze their properties, and propose algorithms to evaluate and learn causal abstractions. Finally, we illustrate the flexibility of our setup by empirically showing how different measures and algorithmic choices may lead to different abstractions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Towards Computing an Optimal Abstraction for Structural Causal Models

Working with causal models at different levels of abstraction is an important feature of science. Existing work has already considered the problem of expressing formally the relation of abstraction between causal models. In this paper, we focus on the problem of learning abstractions. We start by defining the learning problem formally in terms of the optimization of a standard measure of consistency. We then point out the limitation of this approach, and we suggest extending the objective function with a term accounting for information loss. We suggest a concrete measure of information loss, and we illustrate its contribution to learning new abstractions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

On the Complexity of Majority Illusion in Social Networks

Majority illusion occurs in a social network when the majority of the network nodes belong to a certain type but each node's neighbours mostly belong to a different type, therefore creating the wrong perception, i.e., the illusion, that the majority type is different from the actual one. From a system engineering point of view, we want to devise algorithms to detect and, crucially, correct this undesirable phenomenon. In this paper we initiate the computational study of majority illusion in social networks, providing complexity results for its occurrence and avoidance. Namely, we show that identifying whether a network can be labelled such that majority illusion is present, as well as the problem of removing an illusion by adding or deleting edges of the network, are NP-complete problems.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2022

Predicting Voting Outcomes in the Presence of Communities, Echo Chambers and Multiple Parties

A recently proposed graph-theoretic metric, the influence gap, has shown to be a reliable predictor of the effect of social influence in two-party elections, albeit only tested on regular and scale-free graphs. Here, we investigate whether the influence gap is able to predict the outcome of multi-party elections on networks exhibiting community structure, i.e., made of highly interconnected components, and therefore more resembling of real-world interaction. To encode communities we build on the classical model of caveman graphs, which we extend to a richer graph family that displays different levels of homophily, i.e., how much connections and opinions are intertwined. First, we study the predictive power of the influence gap in the presence of communities. We show that when there is no clear initial majority the influence gap is not a good predictor of the election outcome. When we instead allow for varying majorities, although the influence gap improves as a predictor, counting the initial partisan majority does consistently better, across all levels of homophily. Second, we study the combined effect of the more predictive metrics, as function of the homophily levels. Using regression models, we demonstrate that the influence gap combined with the initial votes count does increase the overall predictive power for some levels of homophily. Third, we study elections with more than two parties. Specifically, we extend the definition of the influence gap to any number of parties, considering various generalisations, and show that the initial votes count has an even higher predictive power when compared to influence gap than it did in the two-party case.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Enabling Imitation-Based Cooperation in Dynamic Social Networks

The emergence of cooperation among self-interested agents has been a key concern of the multi-agent systems community for decades. With the increased importance of network-mediated interaction, researchers have shifted the attention on the impact of social networks and their dynamics in promoting or hindering cooperation, drawing various context-dependent conclusions. For example, some lines of research, theoretical and experimental, suggest the existence of a threshold effect in the ratio of timescales of network evolution, after which cooperation will emerge, whereas other lines dispute this, suggesting instead a Goldilocks zone. In this paper we provide an evolutionary game theory framework to understand coevolutionary processes from a bottom up perspective - in particular the emergence of a cooperator-core and defector-periphery - clarifying the impact of partner selection and imitation strategies in promoting cooperative behaviour, without assuming underlying communication or reputation mechanisms. In doing so we provide a unifying framework to study imitation-based cooperation in dynamic social networks and show that disputes in the literature can in fact coexist in so far as the results stem from different equally valid assumptions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Peer Selection with Noisy Assessments

In the peer selection problem a group of agents must select a subset of themselves as winners for, e.g., peer-reviewed grants or prizes. Here, we take a Condorcet view of this aggregation problem, i.e., that there is a ground-truth ordering over the agents and we wish to select the best set of agents, subject to the noisy assessments of the peers. Given this model, some agents may be unreliable, while others might be self-interested, attempting to influence the outcome in their favour. In this paper we extend PeerNomination, the most accurate peer reviewing algorithm to date, into WeightedPeerNomination, which is able to handle noisy and inaccurate agents. To do this, we explicitly formulate assessors' reliability weights in a way that does not violate strategyproofness, and use this information to reweight their scores. We show analytically that a weighting scheme can improve the overall accuracy of the selection significantly. Finally, we implement several instances of reweighting methods and show empirically that our methods are robust in the face of noisy assessments.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

Bounding the Inefficiency of Route Control in Intelligent Transport Systems

Route controlled autonomous vehicles could have a significant impact in reducing congestion in the future. Before applying multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms to route control, we can model the system using a congestion game to predict and mitigate potential issues. We consider the problem of distributed operating systems in a transportation network that control the routing choices of their assigned vehicles. We formulate an associated network control game, consisting of multiple actors seeking to optimise the social welfare of their assigned subpopulations in an underlying nonatomic congestion game. Then we find the inefficiency of the routing equilibria by calculating the Price of Anarchy for polynomial cost functions. Finally, we extend the analysis to allow vehicles to choose their operating system.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2020

PeerNomination: Relaxing Exactness for Increased Accuracy in Peer Selection

In peer selection agents must choose a subset of themselves for an award or a prize. As agents are self-interested, we want to design algorithms that are impartial, so that an individual agent cannot affect their own chance of being selected. This problem has broad application in resource allocation and mechanism design and has received substantial attention in the artificial intelligence literature. Here, we present a novel algorithm for impartial peer selection, PeerNomination, and provide a theoretical analysis of its accuracy. Our algorithm possesses various desirable features. In particular, it does not require an explicit partitioning of the agents, as previous algorithms in the literature. We show empirically that it achieves higher accuracy than the exiting algorithms over several metrics.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2020

Convergence of Opinion Diffusion is PSPACE-complete

We analyse opinion diffusion in social networks, where a finite set of individuals is connected in a directed graph and each simultaneously changes their opinion to that of the majority of their influencers. We study the algorithmic properties of the fixed-point behaviour of such networks, showing that the problem of establishing whether individuals converge to stable opinions is PSPACE-complete.

cs.MA↗