arXiv subjects

Paramveer Dhillon

Publications and source records attributed to Paramveer Dhillon.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Generative AI floods and dilutes the market for books

Generative AI can produce book-length works of fiction at near-zero cost. These books are often dismissed as low-quality ``slop'' that buyers will ignore, and are assumed to carry little commercial weight. We test that assumption with full-text AI detection across 14,419 self-published genre-fiction books sold on Amazon from 2023 to 2026, matched to daily sales records through June 2026. None of these books disclose whether or not they contain AI-produced content. We find that books for which we detected substantial AI text ($>$ 25\%) make up a large share of the catalog but a smaller share of sales. Even so, they reach commercial scale, winning a growing share of sales over time and taking more of the scarce top-rank positions once held by books with no detected AI text. Over this period, the number of books with observed sales in a quarter grew 19.2-fold, while quarterly revenue grew only 8.9-fold. The market therefore added selling books faster than it added revenue, and revenue per selling book fell across most genres. Books with no AI text lose the most ground in genres with high AI diffusion, and most of all where Kindle Unlimited availability is high. Among top-selling books, those with substantial AI text draw on more distinctive language from existing books than do books with no AI text; for these books overlap rises with revenue, a gradient we do not detect for books with no AI text. Generative AI can thus reshape a creative market through scale rather than quality. Our results bear directly on the market-effect question at the center of the fair use defense to copyright infringement.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

From Planning to Revision: How AI Writing Support at Different Stages Alters Ownership

Although AI assistance can improve writing quality, it can also decrease feelings of ownership. Ownership in writing has important implications for attribution, rights, norms, and cognitive engagement, and designers of AI support systems may want to consider how system features may impact ownership. We investigate how the stage at which AI support for writing is provided (planning, drafting, or revising) changes ownership. In a study of short essay writing (between subjects, n = 253) we find that while any AI assistance decreased ownership, planning support only minimally decreased ownership, while drafting support saw the largest decrease. This variation maps onto the amount of text and ideas contributed by AI, where more text and ideas from AI decreased ownership. Notably, an AI-generated draft based on participants' own outline resulted in significantly more AI-contributed ideas than AI support for planning. At the same time, more AI contributions improved essay quality. We propose that writers, educators, and designers consider writing stage when introducing AI assistance.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

Readers Prefer Outputs of AI Trained on Copyrighted Books over Expert Human Writers

The use of copyrighted books for training AI has sparked lawsuits from authors concerned about AI generating derivative content. Yet whether these models can produce high-quality literary text emulating authors' voices remains unclear. We conducted a preregistered study comparing MFA-trained writers with three frontier models (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini) writing up to 450-word excerpts emulating 50 award-winning authors' styles. In blind pairwise evaluations by 28 MFA-trained readers and 516 college-educated general readers, AI text from in-context prompting was strongly disfavored by MFA readers for stylistic fidelity (OR=0.16) and quality (OR=0.13), while general readers showed no fidelity preference (OR=1.06) but favored AI for quality (OR=1.82). Fine-tuning ChatGPT on authors' complete works reversed these results: MFA readers favored AI for fidelity (OR=8.16) and quality (OR=1.87), with general readers showing even stronger preference (fidelity OR=16.65; quality OR=5.42). Both groups preferred fine-tuned AI, but the writer-type X reader-type interaction remained significant (p=0.021 for fidelity; p<10^-4 for quality), indicating general readers favored AI by a wider margin. Effects are robust under cluster-robust inference and generalize across authors in heterogeneity analyses. Fine-tuned outputs were rarely flagged as AI-generated (3% vs. 97% for prompting) by leading detectors. Mediation analysis shows fine-tuning eliminates detectable AI quirks that penalize in-context outputs, altering the nexus between detectability and preference. While not accounting for effort to transform AI output into publishable prose, the median fine-tuning cost of $81 per author represents a 99.7% reduction versus typical writer compensation. Author-specific fine-tuning enables non-verbatim AI writing preferred over expert human writing, providing evidence relevant to copyright's fourth fair-use factor.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

ExAnte: A Benchmark for Ex-Ante Inference in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) face significant challenges in ex-ante reasoning, where analysis, inference, or predictions must be made without access to information from future events. Even with explicit prompts enforcing temporal cutoffs, LLMs often generate outputs influenced by internalized knowledge of events beyond the specified cutoff. This paper introduces a novel task and benchmark designed to evaluate the ability of LLMs to reason while adhering to such temporal constraints. The benchmark includes a variety of tasks: stock prediction, Wikipedia event prediction, scientific publication prediction, and Question Answering (QA), designed to assess factual knowledge under temporal cutoff constraints. We use leakage rate to quantify models' reliance on future information beyond cutoff timestamps. Experimental results reveal that LLMs struggle to consistently adhere to temporal cutoffs across common prompting strategies and tasks, demonstrating persistent challenges in ex-ante reasoning. This benchmark provides a potential evaluation framework to advance the development of LLMs' temporal reasoning ability for time-sensitive applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Characterizing the Structure of Online Conversations Across Reddit

The proliferation of social media platforms has afforded social scientists unprecedented access to vast troves of data on human interactions, facilitating the study of online behavior at an unparalleled scale. These platforms typically structure conversations as threads, forming tree-like structures known as "discussion trees." This paper examines the structural properties of online discussions on Reddit by analyzing both global (community-level) and local (post-level) attributes of these discussion trees. We conduct a comprehensive statistical analysis of a year's worth of Reddit data, encompassing a quarter of a million posts and several million comments. Our primary objective is to disentangle the relative impacts of global and local properties and evaluate how specific features shape discussion tree structures. The results reveal that both local and global features contribute significantly to explaining structural variation in discussion trees. However, local features, such as post content and sentiment, collectively have a greater impact, accounting for a larger proportion of variation in the width, depth, and size of discussion trees. Our analysis also uncovers considerable heterogeneity in the impact of various features on discussion structures. Notably, certain global features play crucial roles in determining specific discussion tree properties. These features include the subreddit's topic, age, popularity, and content redundancy. For instance, posts in subreddits focused on politics, sports, and current events tend to generate deeper and wider discussion trees. This research enhances our understanding of online conversation dynamics and offers valuable insights for both content creators and platform designers. By elucidating the factors that shape online discussions, our work contributes to ongoing efforts to improve the quality and effectiveness of digital discourse.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Ranking & Reweighting Improves Group Distributional Robustness

Recent work has shown that standard training via empirical risk minimization (ERM) can produce models that achieve high accuracy on average but low accuracy on underrepresented groups due to the prevalence of spurious features. A predominant approach to tackle this group robustness problem minimizes the worst group error (akin to a minimax strategy) on the training data, hoping it will generalize well on the testing data. However, this is often suboptimal, especially when the out-of-distribution (OOD) test data contains previously unseen groups. Inspired by ideas from the information retrieval and learning-to-rank literature, this paper first proposes to use Discounted Cumulative Gain (DCG) as a metric of model quality for facilitating better hyperparameter tuning and model selection. Being a ranking-based metric, DCG weights multiple poorly-performing groups (instead of considering just the group with the worst performance). As a natural next step, we build on our results to propose a ranking-based training method called Discounted Rank Upweighting (DRU), which differentially reweights a ranked list of poorly-performing groups in the training data to learn models that exhibit strong OOD performance on the test data. Results on several synthetic and real-world datasets highlight the superior generalization ability of our group-ranking-based (akin to soft-minimax) approach in selecting and learning models that are robust to group distributional shifts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Unique in what sense? Heterogeneous relationships between multiple types of uniqueness and popularity in music

How does our society appreciate the uniqueness of cultural products? This fundamental puzzle has intrigued scholars in many fields, including psychology, sociology, anthropology, and marketing. It has been theorized that cultural products that balance familiarity and novelty are more likely to become popular. However, a cultural product's novelty is typically multifaceted. This paper uses songs as a case study to study the multiple facets of uniqueness and their relationship with success. We first unpack the multiple facets of a song's novelty or uniqueness and, next, measure its impact on a song's popularity. We employ a series of statistical models to study the relationship between a song's popularity and novelty associated with its lyrics, chord progressions, or audio properties. Our analyses performed on a dataset of over fifty thousand songs find a consistently negative association between all types of song novelty and popularity. Overall we found a song's lyrics uniqueness to have the most significant association with its popularity. However, audio uniqueness was the strongest predictor of a song's popularity, conditional on the song's genre. We further found the theme and repetitiveness of a song's lyrics to mediate the relationship between the song's popularity and novelty. Broadly, our results contradict the "optimal distinctiveness theory" (balance between novelty and familiarity) and call for an investigation into the multiple dimensions along which a cultural product's uniqueness could manifest.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Targeting for long-term outcomes

Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long-term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we build on the statistical surrogacy and policy learning literatures to impute the missing long-term outcomes and then approximate the optimal targeting policy on the imputed outcomes via a doubly-robust approach. We first show that conditions for the validity of average treatment effect estimation with imputed outcomes are also sufficient for valid policy evaluation and optimization; furthermore, these conditions can be somewhat relaxed for policy optimization. We apply our approach in two large-scale proactive churn management experiments at The Boston Globe by targeting optimal discounts to its digital subscribers with the aim of maximizing long-term revenue. Using the first experiment, we evaluate this approach empirically by comparing the policy learned using imputed outcomes with a policy learned on the ground-truth, long-term outcomes. The performance of these two policies is statistically indistinguishable, and we rule out large losses from relying on surrogates. Our approach also outperforms a policy learned on short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. In a second field experiment, we implement the optimal targeting policy with additional randomized exploration, which allows us to update the optimal policy for future subscribers. Over three years, our approach had a net-positive revenue impact in the range of $4-5 million compared to the status quo.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Judging a book by its cover: Predicting the marginal impact of title on Reddit post popularity

Several factors influence the popularity of content on social media, including the what, when, and who of a post. Of these factors, the what and when of content are easiest to customize in order to maximize viewership and reach. Further, the title of a post (part of the what) is the easiest to tailor, compared to the post's body, which is often fixed. So, in this paper, we assess the impact of a post's title on its popularity while controlling for the time of posting (the when) by proposing an interpretable attention-based model. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting the popularity of posts on multiple online communities of various sizes, topics, and formats while still being parsimonious. Interpretation of our model's attention weights sheds light on the heterogeneous patterns in how the specific words in a post's title shape its popularity across different communities. Our results highlight the power of sentiment alignment, personal storytelling, and even personality politics in propelling content to virality.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Modeling Dynamic User Interests: A Neural Matrix Factorization Approach

In recent years, there has been significant interest in understanding users' online content consumption patterns. But, the unstructured, high-dimensional, and dynamic nature of such data makes extracting valuable insights challenging. Here we propose a model that combines the simplicity of matrix factorization with the flexibility of neural networks to efficiently extract nonlinear patterns from massive text data collections relevant to consumers' online consumption patterns. Our model decomposes a user's content consumption journey into nonlinear user and content factors that are used to model their dynamic interests. This natural decomposition allows us to summarize each user's content consumption journey with a dynamic probabilistic weighting over a set of underlying content attributes. The model is fast to estimate, easy to interpret and can harness external data sources as an empirical prior. These advantages make our method well suited to the challenges posed by modern datasets. We use our model to understand the dynamic news consumption interests of Boston Globe readers over five years. Thorough qualitative studies, including a crowdsourced evaluation, highlight our model's ability to accurately identify nuanced and coherent consumption patterns. These results are supported by our model's superior and robust predictive performance over several competitive baseline methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2012

Two Step CCA: A new spectral method for estimating vector models of words

Unlabeled data is often used to learn representations which can be used to supplement baseline features in a supervised learner. For example, for text applications where the words lie in a very high dimensional space (the size of the vocabulary), one can learn a low rank "dictionary" by an eigen-decomposition of the word co-occurrence matrix (e.g. using PCA or CCA). In this paper, we present a new spectral method based on CCA to learn an eigenword dictionary. Our improved procedure computes two set of CCAs, the first one between the left and right contexts of the given word and the second one between the projections resulting from this CCA and the word itself. We prove theoretically that this two-step procedure has lower sample complexity than the simple single step procedure and also illustrate the empirical efficacy of our approach and the richness of representations learned by our Two Step CCA (TSCCA) procedure on the tasks of POS tagging and sentiment classification.

cs.CL↗